2008 United States presidential election in Florida

Primary elections

State-run primaries were held for the Democratic and Republican parties on January 29. The Green Party held its own primary on February 1.

Democratic primary

Main article: 2008 Florida Democratic presidential primary

*As awarded by the May 31, 2008, meeting of the Rules and Bylaws Committee (RBC).

**Subsequently, some Edwards delegates switched to Obama.

Republican primary

Main article: 2008 Florida Republican presidential primary

McCain prevailed in Florida's Republican presidential primary.

• Candidate dropped out of the race prior to primary.

Green primary

As part of the 2008 Green Party presidential primaries, the Green Party held a mail-in primary in Florida on February 1.

Campaign

Republican George W. Bush of Texas carried Florida by a convincing margin of 5% in 2004 against Democrat John Kerry, a much greater margin than in 2000 when Bush controversially won the state's 25 electoral votes against Democrat Al Gore of Tennessee by 537 votes.

Early polls showed Barack Obama faring poorly in Florida. During the primary season, Barack Obama did not campaign there and argued against seating its delegates for the Democratic convention, earning unfavorable media attention. Moreover, Florida's demographics did not favor him. A haven for retirees, Florida lacked many of the younger voters who passionately supported the Democratic nominee. Thus, in early 2008, opinion polling showed Republican John McCain leading most polls, sometimes by double digits.

Near the end of September, however, when the 2008 financial crisis became a more potent election issue, Obama proceeded to take the lead in most of the polls. Florida was especially hard hit by the economic shock. It was a hotspot of new home building and suffered tremendously from the subprime lending collapse. In addition, the state was full of retirees depending on 401ks; these were badly hurt by the stock market's fall.

Predictions

16 news organizations made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

Polling

Main article: Statewide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2008#Florida

The 3 poll averages showed McCain leading throughout most of the presidential election season, until the last month of October. The final 3 polls had Obama leading 49% to 48% with undecided voters to decide the election.

Fundraising

McCain raised $14,826,093. Obama raised $19,963,592.

Advertising and visits

Obama and his interest groups spent $36,990,591 in the state. McCain and his interest groups spent $17,133,501. The Democratic ticket visited the state 12 times to the Republicans' 11 times.

Analysis

Obama won the state and its 27 electoral votes on Election Day by a margin of about 2.82%. Obama held a consistent lead for most of the night as returns came in, but the networks avoided calling the state for Obama until the conservative northwestern portion, most of which is in the Central Time Zone, began reporting its returns. According to exit polling, Obama's win in the state can be attributed to winning 96% of the African-American vote, 57% of Latino voters, and 52% among Independents.

Upset wins in the Orlando and Tampa Bay areas, where George W. Bush won in 2004, contributed to Obama's victory. In the former, Obama carried Orange County (which includes Orlando) by 19 points - the best margin for a Democratic candidate in 64 years. Before Al Gore and John Kerry narrowly won it, Orange County hadn't supported a Democratic presidential nominee since Franklin D. Roosevelt's last run for president in 1944. He also became the first Democrat to win Orlando in a presidential election since Roosevelt. Obama carried Osceola County, near Orlando, by a 20-point margin (Bush won it in 2004 52%-47%).

In the Tampa Bay region, Obama carried Hillsborough County, home to Tampa, by a 7-point margin. Obama also won Pinellas County, home to St. Petersburg, by a 53%-45% margin. Bush had narrowly carried the county by about 0.1% in 2004. Like most Democratic candidates, Obama dominated South Florida, winning Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties by comfortable margins. The vote from Miami-Dade came in very late in the evening, stopping the major networks from calling the state for Obama earlier in the evening. However, Obama maintained a lead of at least 125,000 votes from the moment polls closed in the state.

On the other hand, John McCain kept the state relatively close, losing by far less than his national average. In northern Florida, a Republican stronghold, McCain won the majority of counties by double-digit landslides. Along the panhandle, McCain routinely took over 70% of the vote. Obama won only a handful of counties - most home to major colleges. Moreover, McCain improved on George Bush's performance in large parts of northern Florida - something he achieved in very few other areas of the country. Obama's sole accomplishment involved Duval County (Jacksonville), where he narrowed George Bush's 61,580-vote victory to a far smaller 7,919 margin. In 2008, Duval County had only supported a Democrat for president twice since 1952, when John F. Kennedy carried it in 1960 and when Jimmy Carter carried it in 1976.

In addition, McCain was able to do well along the I-4 corridor in central Florida. This heavily populated, "swingy" region often determines which candidate wins in Florida's statewide elections. In 2008, the Republican candidate won most counties, including heavily populated areas such as Brevard County. However, McCain's unexpectedly poor showing in Orlando, a city that had voted Republican in presidential elections from 1948 to 2004, severely hurt his position in central Florida.

Democrats also picked up two seats from Florida in the U.S. House of Representatives. Democrat Alan Grayson defeated incumbent Republican Ric Keller for Florida's 8th Congressional District seat while Democrat Suzanne Kosmas ousted incumbent Republican Tom Feeney for Florida's 24th Congressional District seat. Republicans, however, were successful at winning back Republican Mark Foley's old congressional seat in Florida's 16th Congressional District seat when Tom Rooney defeated Democratic incumbent Tim Mahoney by a comfortable margin. At the state level, Democrats picked up two seats in the Florida House of Representatives as well.

Obama became the first ever Democrat to win the White House without carrying Dixie, Gilchrist, Hamilton or Sumter Counties, as well as the first to do so without carrying Levy County since James Buchanan in 1856, the first to do so without carrying Pasco County since John F. Kennedy in 1960, and the first to do so without carrying Glades, Madison, Hernando, Okeechobee, or Putnam Counties since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964.

As of 2024, this is the most recent presidential election where Flagler County and Volusia County supported the Democratic candidate.

Results

By county

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Flagler (largest municipality: Palm Coast)
• Hillsborough (largest municipality: Tampa)
• Osceola (largest municipality: Kissimmee)
• Pinellas (largest municipality: St. Petersburg)

By congressional district

Despite the fact that Barack Obama won the state, John McCain carried 15 congressional districts in Florida, including two district occupied by Democrats. Obama carried ten congressional districts, including two districts occupied by Republicans.

Electors

Main article: List of 2008 United States presidential electors

Technically the voters of Florida cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Florida is allocated 27 electors because it has 25 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 27 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 27 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 27 were pledged to Barack Obama and Joe Biden

1. Willis "Chip" Arndt
2. Wayne Bailey
3. Fred Balsera
4. Terrie Brady
5. Karl Flagg
6. Joe Gibbons
7. Janet Goen
8. James Golden
9. Chris Hand
10. Marlon Hill
11. Tony Hill
12. Joan Joseph
13. Allan Katz
14. Gena Keebler
15. Joan Lane
16. Caren Lobo
17. Rick Minor
18. Jared Moskowitz
19. Angela Rodante
20. Frank Sanchez
21. Juanita Scott
22. Geraldine Thompson
23. Karen Thurman
24. Carmen Torres
25. Kirk Wagar
26. Enoch Williams
27. Frederica Wilson

References

References

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3. "Size of State / Caucus Delegations".
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5. "2000 Presidential General Election Results - Florida".
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10. "Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily".
11. Based on Takeaway
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13. "RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map".
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17. (April 27, 2010). "Winning The Electoral College". Fox News.
18. "roadto270".
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23. "Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN.
24. "Florida Department of State Division of Elections: November 4, 2008 General Election". Florida Secretary of State.
25. "Local Exit Polls - Election Center 2008 - CNN".
26. Dave Leip. "Presidential General Election Map Comparison - Florida". Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S Presidential Elections.
27. Dave Leip. "2008 Presidential General Election Results - Florida". Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S Presidential Elections.
28. Dave Leip. "2004 Presidential General Election Results - Florida". Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S Presidential Elections.
29. "Election Results 2008". New York Times.
30. "Florida Department of State Division of Elections: November 2, 2004 General Election". Florida Secretary of State.
31. [http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections]
32. "Electoral College". [[California Secretary of State]].
33. "Florida Certificate of Ascertainment, page 3 of 7". National Archives and Records Administration.