2008 Florida Democratic presidential primary

Background

In August 2006, the Democratic National Committee adopted a proposal by its Rules and Bylaws Committee that only four states - Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina - would be permitted to hold primaries or caucuses before Super Tuesday, February 5, 2008. |access-date=2008-03-15 In the spring of 2007, the Florida Legislature (controlled by Republicans in both chambers) passed the House Bill 537 which moved the date of the state's Republican and Democratic primaries to January 29, a week before the earliest permitted date{{cite web

In response, the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee voted on August 25, 2007 that Florida was in violation of its rules and gave the state 30 days' notice to change the date of its primary. As Florida did not respond, the Committee stripped Florida of its delegates to the Democratic National Convention in Denver. On August 31, officials from the four approved early-voting states asked all the candidates to pledge not to campaign or participate in Florida, and all the major candidates signed the pledge. Despite the pledge, the major candidates remained on the ballot, as Florida rules do not allow candidates to remove their names without withdrawing completely from the general election.{{cite web | url = http://www.fladems.com/page/content/makeitcount-faqs/#q17

In October 2007, Democrats from Florida's congressional delegation filed a federal lawsuit against the DNC to force the recognition of its delegates; however, the suit was unsuccessful.

Delegate controversy

On January 25, 2008, Hillary Clinton advocated permitting Florida's delegates (along with similarly situated Michigan's) to be seated and vote at the Democratic National Convention despite the DNC ban, stating:

Clinton's supporters argued that Michigan and Florida's citizens should participate in the nomination processes, and that it would be a mistake for the Democratic Party to overlook the two huge battleground states that might be crucial in the November general election. They also argued that the Clinton campaign had not had a voice in the decision to strip Florida of its delegates.

Critics charged that changing the rules in this way was unfair and that Clinton's position was motivated purely by political expediency. Among their arguments was that neither Clinton nor her campaign had made any public protest when Florida's punishment had first been announced in August 2007; that Clinton was adopting this position only after results from the first primaries had made it apparent that the campaign was not running the way she had expected; that Clinton, along with other candidates, had signed the pledge not to campaign or participate in Florida; and that at the time the pledge was signed, Clinton's then-campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle had proclaimed that

Candidates

• Hillary Clinton
• John Edwards
• Mike Gravel
• Barack Obama

Candidates Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, Dennis Kucinich, and Bill Richardson dropped out of the presidential race before the Florida primary. However, they remained on the ballot.

Polling

Main article: Statewide opinion polling for the January Democratic Party presidential primaries, 2008#Florida

Campaign

Although Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, and John Edwards had pledged not to campaign in the state, supporters of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton conducted unofficial campaign efforts, and over 350,000 Democratic voters cast early ballots as of January 25, 2008. Mike Gravel was the only candidate to openly campaign in the state.

Clinton fundraising visits

Two days before the January 29 election, Hillary Clinton visited Florida and held three fundraisers. On Election Day, Clinton returned to Florida and held a rally after polls closed to celebrate her victory. While these visits were permitted fundraisers, the timing raised controversy among Obama supporters. |archive-url=https://archive.today/20130119154614/http://www.columbusdispatch.com/live/content/local_news/stories/2008/01/28/FLA28.ART_ART_01-28-08_A1_AO96BHC.html?sid=101 |url-status=dead |archive-date=2013-01-19 |access-date=2008-05-14 |access-date=2008-05-14

Obama campaign advertisement

In the run-up to Super Tuesday on February 5, the Obama campaign ran a nationwide television advertising campaign that was shown in all states, including Florida. Obama's campaign asked for the ads not to be shown in Florida, but were told by the cable networks this was not possible. The campaign then sought and received permission to run the ad from South Carolina Democratic Chairwoman Carol Fowler as at that point South Carolina had not already voted.{{cite news |access-date=2008-04-25 Clinton Adviser Harold M. Ickes has claimed that this violated Obama's pledge not to campaign in the state.

Results

*As awarded by the May 31, 2008, meeting of the Rules and Bylaws Committee (RBC).

**Subsequently, some Edwards delegates switched to Obama.

Proposed revote

Shortly after February 5's Super Tuesday contests, the media and some politicians like U.S. Senator Tom Harkin (D-Iowa) began to endorse the idea of a possible revote in Florida and Michigan. However, the cost of an all mail-in Florida Primary had been estimated at more than $4 million, a price tag that neither the DNC nor the state party was willing to pay.

Republican Governor Charlie Crist announced his support for another Democratic Primary, though he opposed using government funds to cover the expenses. Florida Democratic Party Chairwoman Karen Thurman stated that a new contest would have had to have met three requirements: both Obama and Clinton would have to fully participate, there would have to be sufficient funding provided, and all registered Florida Democrats, including those out of state, would have to be able to participate.

Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean stated that he was encouraged by Governor Crist's support and that Florida Democrats could have "resubmitted a plan and run a party process to select delegates to the convention." On Friday, March 7, 2008, Newsweek reported: "A plan to raise soft money to pay for a second Florida Democratic primary -- this one by mail -- seems close to approval, according to Sen. Bill Nelson." On March 17, 2008, a letter from the Florida Democratic Party was released indicating that a revote would not occur.

Democratic National Committee Rules and Bylaws Committee

On May 31, 2008, the Democratic National Committee's Rules and Bylaws Committee decided to seat all of Florida's delegates according to the primary results, but to give each delegate only half a vote at the Convention.

Before the Democratic Convention, Florida, as well as Michigan, were approved with full votes. All 210 delegates were given full voting abilities. They voted during the roll call. The majority voted for Obama, the presumptive nominee.

Analysis

Demographics

Florida has the most elderly voters in the nation with a heavy percentage of Hispanic/Latino voters. According to exit polls, 66 percent of voters in the Florida Democratic Primary were white and they opted for Clinton 53-23-20 (Clinton-Obama-Edwards) along with the 12 percent of Hispanic/Latino voters who backed Clinton 59-30-8. This contrasts with the 19 percent of African American voters who supported Obama 73-25-1.

Clinton won all age groups and income groups in Florida, but split the vote with Obama among highly affluent voters making over $200,000. She also won all educational attainment groups from high school graduates to those with postgraduate studies. Self-identified Democrats, which composed 79 percent of the electorate, backed Clinton 52-35-11 along with Independents who favored her 40-30-25; Edwards won self-identified Republicans 31-27-23 (Edwards-Obama-Clinton), which composed 4 percent of the electorate.

Clinton won all ideological groups except voters who identified themselves as conservative, as they opted for Obama. Regarding religion, Clinton won Protestants 49-33-15, Roman Catholics 63-22-14, Jews 58-26-13, and atheists/agnostics 40-38-18; Obama won other Christians 43-39-16 and voters who affiliated with other religions 48-39-7.

Electoral geography

Clinton's strongest performance was in the Miami area where she won 56-32-8 and South Florida where she won 53-29-14. She also won Central Florida by a margin of 52-30-13 and the Tampa Bay Area by a margin of 50-32-15. Obama did best in North Florida, winning 41-37-20 (Obama-Clinton-Edwards).

While Edwards won a number of rural, predominantly white and conservative counties in the Florida Panhandle, Obama took in more of the vote in Pensacola and Tallahassee which enabled him to win more in the congressional districts. He also won inner-city Jacksonville and the areas outside Orlando and Tampa as well as North Miami and Fort Lauderdale. Clinton carried Orlando, Tampa, Palm Beach, Miami, Hialeah and other large urban areas in South Florida as well as the Florida Keys.

Endorsements

Clinton received endorsements in Florida from U.S. Senator Bill Nelson as well as U.S. Representative Debbie Wasserman Schultz of Fort Lauderdale.

References

References

1. [http://www.myfloridahouse.gov/Sections/Bills/billsdetail.aspx?BillId=35049 CS/HB 537 on State of Florida web site]
2. Sabar, Ariel. (October 16, 2007). "Can the Democratic Party ignore Florida's primary?". Christian Science Monitor.
3. Wulfhorst, Ellen. (Jan 25, 2008). "Clinton roils vote dispute in presidential race". Reuters.
4. "Freep. News".
5. "The Associated Press: Clinton: Give States Their Delegates".
6. Joyner, James. (January 26, 2008). "Hillary Clinton Trying to Steal Nomination?". Outsidethebeltway.com.
7. Dickinson, Tim. (2008-01-25). "Clinton: Rewrite the Rules for Me". Rolling Stone.
8. Harshaw, Tobin. (January 25, 2008). "Any Means Necessary". NYTimes.com.
9. "Florida Department of State - Tuesday, January 29, 2008 Election Results".
10. Nagourney, Adam. (January 27, 2008). "Surge in Early Balloting Shifts Florida Races". New York Times.
11. Wheaton, Sarah. (2007-10-27). "All but Gravel Shun Fla. Convention". The New York Times.
12. "Mike Gravel campaign events listing". Mike Gravel for President 2008.
13. Wallace, Jeremy. (January 23, 2008). "Clinton camp: Obama's Florida ads bust pledge". HeraldTribune.com.
14. "Iowa Independent » Harkin Calls For Florida, Michigan Revote". Iowaindependent.com.
15. Follmer, Max. (2008-02-11). "Price Tag Precludes Re-Vote In Michigan And Florida". Huffingtonpost.com.
16. Democratic National Committee. (2008-03-05). "Dean Statement on Florida and Michigan".
17. Newsweek. (2008-03-07). "Deal Close for 2nd Fla. Primary".
18. "Florida Democratic Party Letter on Revote Decision". [[Time (magazine).
19. (2008-05-31). "Dem panel votes to seat all Florida delegates with half votes". CNN.