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2006 United States Senate election in Arizona

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FieldValue
election_name2006 United States Senate election in Arizona
countryArizona
typepresidential
ongoingno
previous_election2000 United States Senate election in Arizona
previous_year2000
next_election2012 United States Senate election in Arizona
next_year2012
election_dateNovember 7, 2006
image_sizex150px
image1Jon Kyl, official 109th Congress photo (cropped).jpg
nominee1**Jon Kyl**
party1Republican Party (United States)
popular_vote1**814,398**
percentage1**53.34%**
image23x4.svg
nominee2Jim Pederson
party2Democratic Party (United States)
popular_vote2664,141
percentage243.50%
map_image2006 United States Senate election in Arizona results map by county.svg
map_size220px
map_captionCounty results
**Kyl:**
**Pederson:**
titleU.S. Senator
before_electionJon Kyl
before_partyRepublican Party (United States)
after_electionJon Kyl
after_partyRepublican Party (United States)

Kyl:
Pederson:
The 2006 United States Senate election in Arizona was held November 7, 2006. The primary elections were held September 12. Incumbent Republican Jon Kyl won re-election to a third term.

Republican primary

Candidates

  • Jon Kyl, incumbent U.S. Senator since 1995

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

  • Jim Pederson, real estate developer and former chairman of the Arizona Democratic Party

Results

Libertarian primary

Candidates

  • Richard Mack, former Graham County Sheriff

Results

General election

Candidates

  • Jon Kyl (R), incumbent U.S. Senator
  • Jim Pederson (D), real estate developer and former Chairman of the Arizona Democratic Party
  • Richard Mack (L), former Graham County Sheriff

Campaign

The incumbent, Republican Jon Kyl, was elected to the Senate in 1994 and was re-elected to a second term in 2000; prior to that he spent eight years in the US House of Representatives. Kyl's Democratic opponent for the general election was wealthy real-estate developer Jim Pederson, who served as the Arizona Democratic Party Chairman from 2001 to 2005. During his tenure, Pederson spent millions of dollars of his own money to help Democrats modernize and to elect Janet Napolitano as Governor of Arizona. The deadline for signing petition signatures to appear on the September 12, 2006, primary ballot was June 14, 2006.

Not long after the 2004 election, Pederson's name began being mentioned as a potential Senate candidate for the 2006 race. On July 28, 2005, Pederson formally stepped down as Chairman of the Arizona Democratic Party, further fueling those speculations. In early September 2005, an e-mail was sent from the Arizona Democratic Party's website, inviting people to an announcement by Pederson on September 7. In an anticlimactic move, an e-mail was sent out shortly after the first saying that the announcement would be postponed due to Hurricane Katrina. It was requested that any money that would be donated to Pederson's campaign at the announcement be directed to relief efforts instead. Similarly, a meeting in Arizona of the Democratic National Committee (DNC) was scheduled for around the same time. It was also postponed and the same request was made involving donations. On September 7, 2005, Pederson filed to run for the U.S. Senate. On September 14, 2005, Pederson formally announced his intention to run, in his hometown of Casa Grande.

Although Kyl started the campaign with a sizable lead in most polls, the gap quickly narrowed, especially after Pederson released his array of ads.

Debates

Fundraising

The race was one of the most expensive in Arizona history. As of May 7, 2006, Kyl's campaign had raised over $9 million, primarily from private donations from Oil and Energy companies and large fundraising dinners. Pederson's campaign had raised over $5 million, primarily through a dinner event with former President Clinton and a $2 million donation from Pederson.

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political ReportNovember 6, 2006
Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 6, 2006
Rothenberg Political ReportNovember 6, 2006
Real Clear PoliticsNovember 6, 2006

Endorsements

Polling

SourceDateKyl (R)Pederson (D)Mack (L)
Arizona State UniversityOctober 28, 2005**50%**28%
RasmussenDecember 26, 2005**50%**30%
Behavior Research CenterJanuary 22, 2006**55%**26%
SurveyUSAFebruary 27, 2006**57%**33%
Zogby/WSJMarch 30, 2006**47%**42%
RasmussenApril 4, 2006**56%**33%
Arizona State University/KAET-TVApril 20–23, 2006**42%**31%
RasmussenApril 30, 2006**51%**35%
SurveyUSAMay 8, 2006**52%**37%
date=June 2023bot=InternetArchiveBotfix-attempted=yes }}May 18, 2006**40%**33%
RasmussenJune 11, 2006**52%**35%
Arizona State University/KAET-TVJune 20, 2006**43%**29%
Zogby/WSJJune 21, 2006**48%**42%
SurveyUSAJuly 17, 2006**52%**40%
Zogby/WSJJuly 24, 2006**50%**40%
Behavior Research CenterJuly 26, 2006**45%**27%
RasmussenAugust 2, 2006**53%**34%
Zogby/WSJAugust 28, 2006**48%**44%
Arizona State University/KAET-TVAugust 29, 2006**46%**36%
RasmussenAugust 31, 2006**52%**35%
Harstad Strategic Research (D)September 7, 2006**47%**41%
Zogby/WSJSeptember 11, 2006**50%**44%
RasmussenSeptember 18, 2006**50%**39%
SurveyUSASeptember 19, 2006**48%**43%2%
Arizona State University/KAET-TVSeptember 26, 2006**49%**38%2%
Zogby/WSJSeptember 28, 2006**51%**44%
Behavior Research CenterOctober 4, 2006**40%**34%
Northern Arizona UniversityOctober 17, 2006**49%**33%2%
SurveyUSAOctober 17, 2006**48%**43%4%
RasmussenOctober 19, 2006**51%**42%
Zogby/WSJOctober 19, 2006**50%**44%
Arizona State University/KAET-TVOctober 24, 2006**47%**41%3%
Zimmerman/Marketing IntelligenceOctober 25–30, 2006**46%**41%4%
SurveyUSANovember 3, 2006**53%**40%4%
Mason-Dixon/MSNBC-McClatchyNovember 5, 2006**49%**41%3%

Results

Pederson lost the election by 9.84% or 150,257 votes, despite Democratic incumbent governor Janet Napolitano easily being re-elected and winning every county statewide. While Pederson lost it was still notable, as it was the worst performance of Senator Kyl's career. Kyl did well as Republicans usually do in Maricopa County home of Phoenix. Pederson did well in Pima County home of Tucson which tends to support Democrats. Kyl was called the winner by CNN at around 8 P.M. local time, 11 P.M. EST. Pederson called Senator Kyl and conceded defeat at 9:02 P.M. local time, 12:02 A.M. EST.

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

  • Apache (largest municipality: Eagar)
  • Santa Cruz (largest municipality: Nogales)
  • Coconino (largest municipality: Flagstaff)
  • Pima (largest municipality: Tucson)

References

References

  1. "Archived copy".
  2. [http://www.ourcampaigns.com/NewsDetail.html?NewsID=34670 Our Campaigns - News - Kyl may seek an exemption to add cash to his war chest - Aug 23, 2006]
  3. "2006 Senate Race Ratings for November 6, 2006".
  4. (November 6, 2006). "Election Eve 2006: THE FINAL PREDICTIONS".
  5. "2006 Senate Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report.
  6. "Election 2006". Real Clear Politics.
  7. "Jim Pederson (Senate AZ) | WesPAC".
  8. "Endorsements".
  9. "Human Rights Campaign - Working for Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual and Transgender Equal Rights - Out to Win - Election 2006".
  10. {{usurped
  11. [http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2005/Arizona%20Senate.htm Rasmussen] {{Webarchive. link. (December 28, 2005)
  12. [https://web.archive.org/web/20070927221731/http://kvoa.com/Global/story.asp?S=4394022&nav=HMO6 Behavior Research Center]
  13. [http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=540edb90-47ad-4e14-aae6-7c2b995ce3c5 SurveyUSA]
  14. [https://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-flash06.html?project=elections06-ft&h=495&w=778&hasAd=1 Zogby/WSJ]
  15. [https://web.archive.org/web/20060406183322/http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/March%202006/Arizona%20Senate%20March.htm Rasmussen]
  16. [https://web.archive.org/web/20060502033407/http://www.kaet.asu.edu/horizon/poll/2006/4-25-06.htm Arizona State University/KAET-TV]
  17. [https://web.archive.org/web/20060518051911/http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/April%202006/Arizona%20April.htm Rasmussen]
  18. [http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=516df312-3f1d-49b8-8356-ce9f7d1e425f SurveyUSA]
  19. (June 2023)
  20. [https://web.archive.org/web/20060614213528/http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/May%202006/ArizonaSenateMay.htm Rasmussen]
  21. [https://web.archive.org/web/20060902042157/http://www.kaet.asu.edu/horizon/poll/2006/6-20-06.htm Arizona State University/KAET-TV]
  22. [https://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-flash06.html?project=elections06-ft&h=495&w=778&hasAd=1&mod=blogs Zogby/WSJ]
  23. [http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=96c539b4-3ffe-4a1a-a20a-a020c6277c28 SurveyUSA]
  24. [https://web.archive.org/web/20061031091425/http://kvoa.com/Global/story.asp?S=5197890&nav=HMO6 Behavior Research Center]
  25. [http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/July%202006/arizonaSenate.htm Rasmussen] {{Webarchive. link. (September 22, 2006)
  26. [https://web.archive.org/web/20060902041701/http://www.kaet.asu.edu/horizon/poll/2006/8-29-06.htm Arizona State University/KAET-TV]
  27. [http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/August%202006/ArizonaSenate.htm Rasmussen] {{Webarchive. link. (September 2, 2006)
  28. [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2006/senate/az/arizona_senate_race-35.html Harstad Strategic Research (D)]
  29. [https://web.archive.org/web/20061021124559/http://rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/September%202006/ElectionPoll2006ArizonaSenate.htm Rasmussen]
  30. [http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=7bc891cf-4d78-4a76-981e-f7769f103f36 SurveyUSA]
  31. [https://web.archive.org/web/20080720145542/http://www.kaet.asu.edu/horizon/poll/2006/9-26-06.htm Arizona State University/KAET-TV]
  32. [http://phoenix.bizjournals.com/phoenix/stories/2006/10/02/daily39.html Behavior Research Center]
  33. [https://web.archive.org/web/20061031160103/http://www4.nau.edu/srl/PressReleases/SRL%20Press%20Release%20-%20Races%20and%20Intiatives.pdf Northern Arizona University]
  34. [http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=6a637866-2c1b-43ae-a907-c8e1b10f5d88 SurveyUSA]
  35. [https://web.archive.org/web/20061020003901/https://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/October%202006/ArizonaGovernorSenate.htm Rasmussen]
  36. [https://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-elections06.html?project=elections06-ft&h=495&w=778&hasAd=1&mod=blogs Zogby/WSJ]
  37. [https://web.archive.org/web/20070204095925/http://www.azpbs.org/horizon/poll/2006/10-24-06.htm Arizona State University/KAET-TV]
  38. [http://www.azstarnet.com/metro/154165.php Zimmerman/Marketing Intelligence] {{Webarchive. link. (November 3, 2006)
  39. [http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=86cade4b-68b1-43e8-89f7-5cfc1e991259 SurveyUSA]
  40. [http://www.realcities.com/multimedia/nationalchannel/archive/mcw/pdf/110506_arizona_poll.pdf Mason-Dixon/MSNBC-McClatchy]
  41. [http://clerk.house.gov/member_info/electionInfo/2006/2006Stat.htm#3 Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives]
Info: Wikipedia Source

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