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2004 United States presidential election in New York

none

Field	Value
election_name	2004 United States presidential election in New York
country	New York
flag_image	Flag of New York (1909–2020).svg
type	presidential
ongoing	no
previous_election	2000 United States presidential election in New York
previous_year	2000
next_election	2008 United States presidential election in New York
next_year	2008
election_date	November 2, 2004
turnout	62.44% ( 1.74 pp)
image_size	x200px
image1	John F. Kerry (wide crop).jpg
nominee1	John Kerry
party1	Democratic Party (United States)
alliance1	Working Families
home_state1	Massachusetts
running_mate1	John Edwards
electoral_vote1	31
popular_vote1	4,314,280
percentage1	58.37%
image2	George-W-Bush (cropped).jpeg
nominee2	George W. Bush
party2	Republican Party (United States)
alliance2	Conservative
home_state2	Texas
running_mate2	Dick Cheney
electoral_vote2	0
popular_vote2	2,962,567
percentage2	40.08%
map_image	{{Switcher
map_caption
title	President
before_election	George W. Bush
before_party	Republican Party (United States)
after_election	George W. Bush
after_party	Republican Party (United States)

Main article: 2004 United States presidential election

| [[File:New York Presidential Election Results 2004.svg|400px]] | County results |[[File:2004 United States presidential election in New York by congressional district.svg|400px]] | Congressional district results | [[File:New York Presidential Results 2004 by Municipality.svg|400px]] | Municipality results Kerry Bush The 2004 United States presidential election in New York took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 31 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

New York was won by Democratic nominee John Kerry by an 18.3% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all major news organizations considered this a state Kerry would win, or a safe blue state. The last Republican presidential nominee to have carried the state of New York was Ronald Reagan in 1984 and the last one to finish within single digits of the Democratic opponent was Bush's father George H. W. Bush in 1988.

As expected, Kerry won the state of New York in a landslide. Statewide elections in New York are dominated by the heavily Democratic stronghold of New York City, the most populous city in the United States where around 40% of state residents live. Kerry received around 75% of the vote in the city, accounting for most of his statewide victory. New York gave Kerry his fourth largest statewide margin of victory, only behind Kerry's home state of Massachusetts and fellow New England states Rhode Island and Vermont.

Although the state was left uncontested by both candidates, Bush did manage to significantly improve on his performance from 2000, reducing his margin of defeat from 25% to 18%; this is often attributed to increased support for Bush in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks and a greater emphasis on the issue of counterterrorism.

After 2004, no Republican presidential candidate would receive over 40% of the state's vote until 2024, when Donald Trump won 43.3%. Likewise, no Republican would carry Rockland County until Trump in 2024.

George W. Bush remains the last Republican candidate to win Dutchess County. Bush was also the first president elected twice without ever carrying New York.

Primaries

2004 New York Democratic presidential primary

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.

Source	Ranking
D.C. Political Report
Cook Political Report
Research 2000
Zogby International
The Washington Post	Washington Post
Washington Dispatch
Washington Times
The New York Times
CNN
Newsweek
Associated Press
Rasmussen Reports

Polling

Kerry won every single pre-election poll, and all but one with a double-digit margin and with at least 49%. The final 3-poll average showed Kerry leading 55% to 38%.

Fundraising

Bush raised $11,994,227. Kerry raised $27,733,309.

Advertising and visits

Neither campaign advertised or visited the state during the fall campaign.

Analysis

The voters of the five boroughs of New York City were the main force responsible for Kerry's decisive victory in the state. Kerry won New York City by an overwhelming margin, taking 1,828,015 votes to Bush's 587,534, a 74.99%-to-24.10% victory. Excluding New York City's votes, John Kerry still would have carried New York State, but by a reduced margin, taking 2,486,265 votes to Bush's 2,375,033 votes, a 51.14%-to-48.86% victory.

The New York City suburbs consist of Long Island's Nassau and Suffolk counties as well as Westchester and Rockland counties. Traditionally Republican, this area went clearly Democratic through the past few decades, with the arrival of people from New York City. However, in this area where many voters commute to Manhattan, Bush did better than expected. Although he clearly lost these counties to Gore in 2000 with 39.55% to 56.42%, or 655,665 votes to 935,456, he only lost them by a closer 46.13% to 52.30% to Kerry. While Bush won 167,397 more votes than in 2000, Kerry lost 2,437. This can be mainly explained by the concerns of suburban moderate voters about terrorism, an issue about which they trusted Bush more than Kerry. Exit polls showed 49% of voters in New York trusted Bush to handle terrorism, as opposed to 42% for Kerry.

Upstate New York region, including all of the counties that are not part of New York City or its suburbs, is the least liberal region of the three. Its politics are very similar to those of Ohio or Pennsylvania, at the time, both key swing states and sharing conservative rural areas. Bush expanded his margin in New York City's northern exurban counties Dutchess, Orange and Putnam from 2000. Despite this, Senator Kerry still managed a slim victory in Upstate New York, with 1,553,246 votes to 1,551,971 for Bush. This was largely due to a Democratic tidal wave in the region's four largest cities--Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse and Albany. Kerry also ran strongly in college dominated Tompkins County and two counties with an influx of former New York City residents moving to vacation homes, Ulster County and Columbia County.

According to exit polls, Senator Kerry won both males (56%–42%) and Females (60%–40%) over the president. President Bush narrowly carried white voters in New York 50% to 49%. This was not enough to overcome Senator Kerry carrying African Americans 90% to 9%, Latinos 75% to 24% and Asians 72% to 27%. Kerry won all age groups over President Bush, with his closest wins being 52% to 47% among those aged 45–59 and 53% to 47% among those 60 and older. Kerry also won all income groups and all levels of education.

Results

2004 United States presidential election in New York	Party	Candidate	Popular votes	Percentage
Democratic	John Kerry	4,180,755	56.57%
Working Families	John Kerry	133,525	1.81%
Total	John F. Kerry	4,314,280	58.37%	31
Republican	George W. Bush	2,806,993	37.98%
Conservative	George W. Bush	155,574	2.10%
Total	George W. Bush (incumbent)	2,962,567	40.08%	0
Independence	Ralph Nader	84,247	1.14%
Peace and Justice	Ralph Nader	15,626	0.21%
Total	Ralph Nader	99,873	1.35%	0
Libertarian	Michael Badnarik	11,607	0.16%	0
Socialist Workers	Roger Calero	2,405	0.03%	0
Constitution (write-in)	Michael Peroutka	363		0
Green (write-in)	David Cobb	138		0
Independent (write-in)	John J. Kennedy	8		0
Independent (write-in)	Michael Halpin	4		0
Socialist Equality (write-in)	Bill Van Auken	4		0
Totals		7,391,036		100%	31
Voter turnout:		62.44%

New York City results

TOTAL	641,951	342,979	687,884	605,392	160,143	2,438,349	100.00%

By county

County	John Kerry
Democratic	George W. Bush
Republican	Various candidates
Other parties	Margin	Total votes cast	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%	Totals	4,314,280	58.36%	2,962,567	40.08%	115,107	1.56%	1,351,713	18.28%	7,391,954
	Albany		89,323		60.68%		54,872		37.28%		3,004		2.04%		34,451		23.40%		147,199
	Allegany		6,566		34.07%		12,310		63.88%		394		2.05%		−5,744		−29.81%		19,270
	Bronx		283,994		82.80%		56,701		16.53%		2,284		0.67%		227,293		66.27%		342,979
	Broome		46,281		50.37%		43,568		47.41%		2,041		2.22%		2,713		2.96%		91,890
	Cattaraugus		13,514		39.44%		20,051		58.52%		701		2.04%		−6,537		−19.08%		34,266
	Cayuga		17,534		48.64%		17,743		49.22%		775		2.15%		−209		−0.58%		36,052
	Chautauqua		27,257		44.72%		32,434		53.22%		1,253		2.06%		−5,177		−8.50%		60,944
	Chemung		17,080		43.71%		21,321		54.56%		674		1.72%		−4,241		−10.85%		39,075
	Chenango		9,277		43.47%		11,582		54.27%		482		2.26%		−2,305		−10.80%		21,341
	Clinton		17,624		52.24%		15,330		45.44%		782		2.32%		2,294		6.80%		33,736
	Columbia		15,929		51.21%		14,457		46.48%		717		2.31%		1,472		4.73%		31,103
	Cortland		10,670		46.88%		11,613		51.02%		477		2.09%		−943		−4.14%		22,760
	Delaware		8,724		41.22%		11,958		56.49%		485		2.29%		−3,234		−15.27%		21,167
	Dutchess		58,232		47.01%		63,372		51.16%		2,277		1.84%		−5,140		−4.15%		123,881
	Erie		251,090		56.41%		184,423		41.43%		9,625		2.17%		66,667		14.98%		445,138
	Essex		8,768		45.95%		9,869		51.72%		445		2.34%		−1,101		−5.77%		19,082
	Franklin		9,543		52.10%		8,383		45.77%		390		2.13%		1,160		6.33%		18,316
	Fulton		9,202		41.42%		12,570		56.58%		443		1.99%		−3,368		−15.16%		22,215
	Genesee		10,331		37.46%		16,725		60.64%		524		1.90%		−6,394		−23.18%		27,580
	Greene		8,933		39.88%		12,996		58.02%		469		2.10%		−4,063		−18.14%		22,398
	Hamilton		1,145		30.99%		2,475		66.98%		75		2.03%		−1,330		−35.99%		3,695
	Herkimer		11,675		41.24%		16,024		56.60%		611		2.15%		−4,349		−15.36%		28,310
	Jefferson		16,860		43.45%		21,231		54.72%		709		1.83%		−4,371		−11.27%		38,800
	Kings		514,973		74.86%		167,149		24.30%		5,762		0.84%		347,824		50.56%		687,884
	Lewis		4,546		39.89%		6,624		58.12%		227		1.99%		−2,078		−18.23%		11,397
	Livingston		11,504		38.41%		17,729		59.20%		715		2.39%		−6,225		−20.79%		29,948
	Madison		13,121		43.32%		16,537		54.60%		629		2.08%		−3,416		−11.28%		30,287
	Monroe		173,497		50.57%		163,545		47.67%		6,022		1.76%		9,952		2.90%		343,064
	Montgomery		9,449		44.53%		11,338		53.43%		434		2.04%		−1,889		−8.90%		21,221
	Nassau		323,070		52.25%		288,355		46.63%		6,918		1.12%		34,715		5.62%		618,343
	New York		526,765		82.06%		107,405		16.73%		7,781		1.21%		419,360		65.33%		641,951
	Niagara		47,602		49.29%		47,111		48.78%		1,867		1.93%		491		0.51%		96,580
	Oneida		40,792		42.77%		52,392		54.93%		2,197		2.30%		−11,600		−12.16%		95,381
	Onondaga		116,381		54.23%		94,006		43.80%		4,238		1.98%		22,375		10.43%		214,625
	Ontario		21,166		42.24%		27,999		55.88%		945		1.89%		−6,833		−13.64%		50,110
	Orange		63,394		43.82%		79,089		54.67%		2,190		1.51%		−15,695		−10.85%		144,673
	Orleans		5,959		35.95%		10,317		62.24%		301		1.81%		−4,358		−26.29%		16,577
	Oswego		24,133		46.76%		26,325		51.01%		1,149		2.23%		−2,192		−4.25%		51,607
	Otsego		12,723		47.74%		13,342		50.06%		587		2.20%		−619		−2.32%		26,652
	Putnam		19,575		42.03%		26,356		56.59%		640		1.37%		−6,781		−14.56%		46,571
	Queens		433,835		71.66%		165,954		27.41%		5,603		0.93%		267,881		44.25%		605,392
	Rensselaer		36,075		49.75%		34,734		47.90%		1,705		2.35%		1,341		1.85%		72,514
	Richmond		68,448		42.74%		90,325		56.40%		1,370		0.85%		−21,877		−13.66%		160,143
	Rockland		64,191		48.91%		65,130		49.63%		1,910		1.46%		−939		−0.72%		131,231
	Saratoga		48,730		45.60%		56,158		52.55%		1,985		1.86%		−7,428		−6.95%		106,873
	Schenectady		35,971		51.78%		32,066		46.16%		1,432		2.06%		3,905		5.62%		69,469
	Schoharie		5,630		38.67%		8,591		59.01%		338		2.33%		−2,961		−20.34%		14,559
	Schuyler		3,445		40.10%		4,960		57.74%		185		2.16%		−1,515		−17.64%		8,590
	Seneca		6,979		45.54%		7,981		52.08%		365		2.38%		−1,002		−6.54%		15,325
	St. Lawrence		22,857		54.73%		18,029		43.17%		875		2.09%		4,828		11.56%		41,761
	Steuben		14,523		34.35%		26,980		63.81%		781		1.85%		−12,457		−29.46%		42,284
	Suffolk		315,909		49.46%		309,949		48.53%		12,854		2.01%		5,960		0.93%		638,712
	Sullivan		15,034		48.55%		15,319		49.47%		613		1.98%		−285		−0.92%		30,966
	Tioga		9,694		40.56%		13,762		57.58%		446		1.87%		−4,068		−17.02%		23,902
	Tompkins		27,229		64.19%		13,994		32.99%		1,198		2.82%		13,235		31.20%		42,421
	Ulster		47,602		54.27%		37,821		43.12%		2,289		2.61%		9,781		11.15%		87,712
	Warren		13,405		43.16%		16,969		54.63%		685		2.20%		−3,564		−11.47%		31,059
	Washington		10,624		42.32%		13,827		55.08%		652		2.59%		−3,203		−12.76%		25,103
	Wayne		15,709		38.11%		24,709		59.94%		802		1.94%		−9,000		−21.83%		41,220
	Westchester		229,849		58.08%		159,628		40.33%		6,293		1.59%		70,221		17.75%		395,770
	Wyoming		6,134		33.76%		11,745		64.64%		290		1.59%		−5,611		−30.88%		18,169
	Yates		4,205		39.26%		6,309		58.90%		197		1.83%		−2,104		−19.64%		10,711

County flips: {{col-begin}}

Democratic Republican ]]

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Cayuga (county seat: Auburn)
Montgomery (county seat: Fonda)
Richmond (coterminous with Staten Island, a borough of New York City)
Rockland (county seat: New City)
Seneca (county seat: Waterloo)
Sullivan (county seat: Monticello)

By congressional district

Kerry won 20 of 29 congressional districts. Both candidates won a district held by the other party.

District	Bush	Representative
49.4%	48.7%	Tim Bishop
45%	53%	Steve Israel
52%	47%	Peter T. King
44%	55%	Carolyn McCarthy
36%	63%	Gary Ackerman
15%	84%	Gregory W. Meeks
25%	74%	Joseph Crowley
27%	72%	Jerrold Nadler
43%	56%	Anthony D. Weiner
13%	86%	Edolphus Towns
13%	86%	Major Owens
19%	80%	Nydia Velasquez
55%	45%	Vito Fossella
24%	74%	Carolyn B. Maloney
9%	90%	Charlie Rangel
10%	89%	Jose Serrano
33%	66%	Eliot L. Engel
42%	57%	Nita Lowey
53%	45%	Sue W. Kelly
53%	45%	John E. Sweeney
43%	55%	Michael R. McNulty
45%	53%	Maurice Hinchey
51%	47%	John M. McHugh
52%	46%	Sherwood Boehlert
48%	50%	James T. Walsh
55%	43%	Thomas M. Reynolds
44%	53%	Jack Quinn
	Brian Higgins
36%	62%	Louise Slaughter
56%	42%	Amo Houghton
	Randy Kuhl

Electors

Main article: List of 2004 United States presidential electors

NY voters cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. New York has 31 electors because it has 29 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 31 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 31 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia meet in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from New York. All were pledged to and voted for Kerry/Edwards.

Joseph Ashton
Bill De Blasio
Molly Clifford
Lorraine Cortes-Vazquez
Inez Dickens
Danny Donahue
Herman D. Farrell
C. Virginia Fields
Emily Giske
Bea Gonzalez
Alan Hevesi
Frank Hoare
Virginia Kee
Peggy Kerry
Denise King
Len Lenihan
Bertha Lewis
Alan Lubin
Thomas J. Manton
Dennis Mehiel
June O'Neill
David Paterson
Jose Rivera
Rich Schaffer
Chung Seto
Sheldon Silver
Eliot Spitzer
Antoine Thompson
Paul Tokasz
Bill Wood
Robert Zimmerman

References

"Archived copy".
"Election 2004 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". Uselectionatlas.org.
"George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President". Campaignmoney.com.
"John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democratic Party, President". Campaignmoney.com.
"CNN.com Specials". Cnn.com.
"CNN.com Specials". Cnn.com.
"CNN.com Election 2004".
"CNN.com Election 2004".
"CNN.com Election 2004".
"CNN.com Election 2004".
"CNN.com Election 2004".
"CNN.com Election 2004".
"Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections 2004 - New York". Uselectionatlas.org.
"2004 Presidential General Election Results - New York".
"2000 Presidential General Election Results - New York".
"Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - County Data".

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