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2004 United States presidential election in California

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FieldValue
election_name2004 United States presidential election in California
countryCalifornia
typepresidential
ongoingno
previous_election2000 United States presidential election in California
previous_year2000
next_election2008 United States presidential election in California
next_year2008
turnout76.04% (of registered voters) 5.10 pp
57.03% (of eligible voters) 5.11 pp
election_dateNovember 2, 2004
image_sizex200px
image1John F. Kerry (wide crop).jpg
nominee1**John Kerry**
party1Democratic Party (United States)
home_state1Massachusetts
running_mate1**John Edwards**
electoral_vote1**55**
popular_vote1**6,745,485**
percentage1**54.31%**
image2George-W-Bush (cropped).jpeg
nominee2George W. Bush
party2Republican Party (United States)
home_state2Texas
running_mate2Dick Cheney
electoral_vote20
popular_vote25,509,826
percentage244.36%
map_image{{Switcher
titlePresident
before_electionGeorge W. Bush
before_partyRepublican Party (United States)
after_electionGeorge W. Bush
after_partyRepublican Party (United States)

Main article: 2004 United States presidential election

57.03% (of eligible voters) 5.11 pp | [[File:California Presidential Election Results 2004.svg|320px]] |County results |[[File:2004 United States presidential election in California by congressional district.svg|320px]] |Congressional district results Kerry Bush The 2004 United States presidential election in California took place on November 2 as part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 55 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

California was won by Democratic nominee John Kerry by a 9.95% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all leading news organizations considered this a state Kerry would win, or otherwise considered as a safe blue state. Republican presidential candidates have not taken California's electoral votes since Bush's father George H. W. Bush in his victory over Michael Dukakis in 1988. Bush would become the first Republican to win two terms in the White House without winning California at least once. With its 55 electoral votes, California was John Kerry's biggest electoral prize in 2004.

This marked the first election since 1880 in which the Republican nominee won the nationwide popular vote without California and the first time since 1976 that it voted for the popular vote loser. It was also the first time since Californian statehood in 1850 that a presidential candidate, of any party, was elected to two terms to the presidency without winning the state either time.

This is the most recent election in which a Republican presidential candidate has received more than 40% of the vote in California. It is also the most recent time a Republican has won more than a third of the vote in Los Angeles County, and the latest time the gap between the Republican and Democratic candidates was less than two million votes and single-digit points.

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.

SourceRanking
D.C. Political Report
Associated Press
CNN
Cook Political Report
Newsweek
New York Times
Rasmussen Reports
Research 2000
Washington Post
Washington Times
Zogby International
Washington Dispatch

Polling

Main article: Statewide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2004#California

Kerry led every single pre-election poll. The final 3 polls average Kerry leading at 52% to Bush at 43% to Nader at 2%.

Fundraising

Bush raised $20,296,645, the second most money raised state for him. It accounted for 10.7% of all the money he raised in 2004. Kerry raised $36,378,063, which is by far the most money raised for Kerry by any state. The money raised in California accounted for almost 20% of all money he raised in 2004.

Advertising and visits

Neither Kerry nor Bush advertised or campaigned in the state during the fall election.

Analysis

California was once a Republican-leaning swing state, supporting Republican candidates in every election from 1952 through 1988, except in 1964. However, since the 1990s, California has become a reliably Democratic state with a highly diverse ethnic population (mostly Latino) and liberal bastions such as the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles County. The last time a Republican candidate won the state was in 1988 by George H. W. Bush.

In 2004, the state did swing slightly Republican by a 1.9% margin from 2000 due to strong swings in heavily populated San Diego, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, Ventura, Kern, Fresno, Stanislaus, and San Joaquin counties, in all of which Bush increased his margin by substantially more than he did nationally, and all of which save San Diego, San Joaquin, and Ventura he won by double digits. Bush also won over a million votes in Los Angeles County, the most populous county in the United States; and he held Kerry to a 0.2% margin in Sacramento County (which Gore had won by 4.0%). Bush also benefited from strong support by Arnold Schwarzenegger, the state's Republican governor. These factors likely contributed to California being closer than expected in 2004.

Bush remains the last Republican candidate to win San Diego, San Luis Obispo and Ventura counties in a presidential election. Fresno, Merced, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Joaquin, and Stanislaus counties would not vote Republican again until 2024. He is also the last candidate of any party to win Butte county by a majority. This is the last time the Democratic Party failed to obtain at least 60% of the vote until 2024.

Bush won whites 51%-47%, while Kerry won African-Americans 81%-18%, Latinos 63%-32%, and Asians 66%-34%.

Results

2004 United States presidential election in CaliforniaPartyCandidateVotesPercentageElectoral votes
**Democratic****John Forbes Kerry** and **John Reid Edwards****6,745,485****54.31%****55**
RepublicanGeorge Walker Bush and Richard Bruce Cheney (incumbent)5,509,82644.36%0
LibertarianMichael Badnarik50,1650.40%0
GreenDavid Cobb40,7710.33%0
Peace and FreedomLeonard Peltier27,6070.22%0
American IndependentMichael Peroutka26,6450.21%0
IndependentRalph Nader (write-in)20,7140.17%0
IndependentJohn Joseph Kennedy (write-in)820.00%0
IndependentJohn Parker (write-in)490.00%0
IndependentJames Alexander-Pace (write-in)80.00%0
IndependentAnthony Jabin (write-in)10.00%0
Totals**12,421,353****100.00%****55**
Voter turnout (Voting Age voters)**74.7%**

By county

CountyJohn Kerry
DemocraticGeorge W. Bush
RepublicanVarious candidates
Other partiesMarginTotal votes cast#%#%#%#%Total6,745,48554.31%5,509,82644.36%166,0421.34%1,235,6599.95%12,421,353
Alameda422,58575.18%130,91123.29%8,5941.53%291,67451.89%562,090
Alpine37353.21%31144.37%172.43%628.84%701
Amador6,54136.56%11,10762.08%2431.36%-4,566-25.52%17,891
Butte42,44844.14%51,66253.73%2,0472.13%-9,214-9.58%96,157
Calaveras8,28637.09%13,60160.87%4562.04%-5,315-23.79%22,343
Colusa1,94731.58%4,14267.17%771.25%-2,195-35.60%6,166
Contra Costa257,25462.28%150,60836.46%5,1661.25%106,64625.82%413,028
Del Norte3,89241.31%5,35656.85%1731.84%-1,464-15.54%9,421
El Dorado32,24237.33%52,87861.23%1,2441.44%-20,636-23.89%86,364
Fresno103,15441.68%141,98857.38%2,3210.94%-38,834-15.69%247,463
Glenn2,99531.68%6,30866.72%1511.60%-3,313-35.04%9,454
Humboldt37,98857.66%25,71439.03%2,1843.31%12,27418.63%65,886
Imperial17,96452.41%15,89046.36%4201.23%2,0746.05%34,274
Inyo3,35038.88%5,09159.09%1752.03%-1,741-20.21%8,616
Kern68,60332.49%140,41766.49%2,1541.02%-71,814-34.01%211,174
Kings10,83333.74%21,00365.41%2740.85%-10,170-31.67%32,110
Lake13,14153.16%11,09344.88%4851.96%2,0488.29%24,719
Lassen3,15827.58%8,12670.97%1661.45%-4,968-43.39%11,450
Los Angeles1,907,73663.10%1,076,22535.60%39,3191.30%831,51127.50%3,023,280
Madera13,48134.70%24,87164.02%4981.28%-11,390-29.32%38,850
Marin99,07073.21%34,37825.40%1,8771.39%64,69247.80%135,325
Mariposa3,25137.55%5,21560.23%1922.22%-1,964-22.68%8,658
Mendocino24,38563.45%12,95533.71%1,0892.83%11,43029.74%38,429
Merced24,49142.26%32,77356.54%6961.20%-8,282-14.29%57,960
Modoc1,14925.72%3,23572.42%831.86%-2,086-46.70%4,467
Mono2,62849.23%2,62149.10%891.67%70.13%5,338
Monterey75,24160.36%47,83838.38%1,5741.26%27,40321.98%124,653
Napa33,66659.48%22,05938.97%8741.54%11,60720.51%56,599
Nevada24,22044.92%28,79053.39%9101.69%-4,570-8.48%53,920
Orange419,23938.98%641,83259.68%14,3281.33%-222,593-20.70%1,075,399
Placer55,57336.26%95,96962.61%1,7361.13%-40,396-26.35%153,278
Plumas4,12936.90%6,90561.71%1561.39%-2,776-24.81%11,190
Riverside228,80641.04%322,47357.83%6,3001.13%-93,667-16.80%557,579
Sacramento236,65749.52%235,53949.29%5,6701.19%1,1180.23%477,866
San Benito9,85152.61%8,69846.45%1760.94%1,1536.16%18,725
San Bernardino227,78943.57%289,30655.34%5,6821.09%-61,517-11.77%522,777
San Diego526,43746.33%596,03352.45%13,8741.22%-69,596-6.12%1,136,344
San Francisco296,77283.02%54,35515.21%6,3381.77%242,41767.82%357,465
San Joaquin87,01245.83%100,97853.18%1,8740.99%-13,966-7.36%189,864
San Luis Obispo58,74245.52%67,99552.69%2,3131.79%-9,253-7.17%129,050
San Mateo197,92269.48%83,31529.25%3,6201.27%114,60740.23%284,857
Santa Barbara90,31453.17%76,80645.22%2,7411.61%13,5087.95%169,861
Santa Clara386,10063.94%209,09434.63%8,6221.43%177,00629.31%603,816
Santa Cruz89,10272.98%30,35424.86%2,6282.15%58,74848.12%122,084
Shasta24,33931.31%52,24967.22%1,1431.47%-27,910-35.91%77,731
Sierra64633.16%1,24964.12%532.72%-603-30.95%1,948
Siskiyou7,88037.71%12,67360.64%3461.66%-4,793-22.93%20,899
Solano85,09657.17%62,30141.86%1,4400.97%22,79515.32%148,837
Sonoma148,26167.18%68,20430.90%4,2251.91%80,05736.28%220,690
Stanislaus58,82940.40%85,40758.65%1,3880.95%-26,578-18.25%145,624
Sutter9,60231.85%20,25467.19%2890.96%-10,652-35.34%30,145
Tehama7,50432.01%15,57266.42%3681.57%-8,068-34.41%23,444
Trinity2,78242.71%3,56054.66%1712.63%-778-11.95%6,513
Tulare32,49432.87%65,39966.15%9670.98%-32,905-33.28%98,860
Tuolumne10,10438.51%15,74560.02%3861.47%-5,641-21.50%26,235
Ventura148,85947.53%160,31451.19%4,0201.28%-11,455-3.66%313,193
Yolo42,88559.34%28,00538.75%1,3791.91%14,88020.59%72,269
Yuba5,68731.55%12,07667.00%2611.45%-6,389-35.45%18,024

|[[File:California counties shift 2000-2004.svg|300px]]|Shift by county |[[File:California counties trend 0004.svg|300px]]|Trend by county {{collapsible list | title = Legend | | | | | | | | | |}} |[[File:California County Flips 2004.svg|300px]]|County flips {{collapsible list| title = Legend| Democratic Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

  • Alpine (largest municipality: Markleeville)
  • Mono (largest municipality: Mammoth Lakes)

By congressional district

Kerry won 31 of 53 congressional districts, with the remaining 22 going to Bush, including two that elected Democrats.

DistrictBushKerryRepresentative
38%**60%**Mike Thompson
**62%**37%Wally Herger
**58%**41%Doug Ose
Dan Lungren
**61%**37%John Doolittle
38%**61%**Bob Matsui
28%**70%**Lynn Woolsey
32%**67%**George Miller
14%**84%**Nancy Pelosi
13%**86%**Barbara Lee
40%**59%**Ellen Tauscher
**54%**45%Richard Pombo
27%**72%**Tom Lantos
28%**71%**Pete Stark
30%**68%**Anna Eshoo
36%**63%**Mike Honda
36%**63%**Zoe Lofgren
33%**66%**Sam Farr
**50%**49%Dennis Cardoza
**61%**38%George Radanovich
48%**51%**Cal Dooley
Jim Costa
**65%**34%Devin Nunes
**68%**31%Bill Thomas
40%**58%**Lois Capps
**56%**43%Elton Gallegly
**59%**40%Howard McKeon
**55%**44%David Dreier
39%**59%**Brad Sherman
28%**71%**Howard Berman
37%**61%**Adam Schiff
33%**66%**Henry Waxman
22%**77%**Xavier Becerra
37%**62%**Hilda Solis
16%**83%**Diane Watson
30%**69%**Lucille Roybal-Allard
20%**79%**Maxine Waters
40%**59%**Jane Harman
25%**74%**Juanita Millender-McDonald
34%**65%**Grace Napolitano
40%**59%**Linda Sánchez
**60%**38%Ed Royce
**62%**37%Jerry Lewis
**62%**37%Gary Miller
41%**58%**Joe Baca
**59%**40%Ken Calvert
**56%**43%Mary Bono Mack
**57%**42%Dana Rohrabacher
**50%**49%Loretta Sanchez
**58%**40%Christopher Cox
John Campbell
**63%**36%Darrell Issa
**55%**44%Brian Bilbray
46%**53%**Bob Filner
**61%**38%Duncan Hunter
38%**61%**Susan Davis

Electors

Main article: List of 2004 United States presidential electors

Technically the voters of California cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. California is allocated 55 electors because it has 53 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 53 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 53 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from California. All were pledged to and voted for John Kerry and John Edwards.

  1. Robert H. Manley
  2. Barbara Schraeger
  3. Paul Johnson
  4. Gary Simmons
  5. Paul Batterson
  6. Diana Madoshi
  7. Kyriakos Tsakopoulos
  8. Donald Linker
  9. Paula Sandusky
  10. Adam Woo
  11. Chloe Drew
  12. Karl Sliferv
  13. Gary Prost
  14. Joseph Cotchett
  15. John Smith
  16. George Marcus
  17. Mark Hsu
  18. Adele Bihn
  19. Darrell Darling
  20. Amarjit Dhaliwal
  21. Rocco Davis
  22. Kenneth Costa
  23. Barbara Pyle
  24. David Johnson
  25. Andrew M. Siegel
  26. Michael Carpenter
  27. Lynda Von Husen
  28. Randy Monroe
  29. Lane M. Sherman
  30. Moreen Blum
  31. Yolanda Dyer
  32. Paul I. Goldenberg
  33. Lenore Wax
  34. Mitch O'Farrell
  35. Franklin A. Acevedo
  36. Gwen Moore
  37. Pedro Carillo
  38. Karen Walters
  39. Ted Lieu
  40. Valerie McDonald
  41. Marvin
  42. Douglas E. Hitchcock
  43. Barbara Kerr
  44. Salvador Sanchez
  45. Joe Baca Jr.
  46. Grant Gruber
  47. James T. Ewing
  48. Louise Giacoppe
  49. James G. Bohm
  50. Mark Lam
  51. Chuck Lower
  52. Susan Koehler
  53. Mary Salas
  54. Andrew Benjamin
  55. Margaret Lawrence

References

References

  1. "HISTORICAL VOTER REGISTRATION AND PARTICIPATION IN STATEWIDE GENERAL ELECTIONS 1910-2018".
  2. "Archived copy".
  3. [http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?fips=1 Election 2004 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections]
  4. [http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/george_w_bush.asp?cycle=04 George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President]
  5. [http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/john_f_kerry.asp?cycle=04 John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democratic Party, President]
  6. "CNN.com Specials". CNN.
  7. "CNN.com Specials". CNN.
  8. Loughlin, Sean. (September 1, 2004). "Schwarzenegger's star power dazzles delegates".
  9. "2004 Presidential General Election Results - California".
  10. "2024 Presidential General Election Results - California".
  11. https://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/CA/P/00/epolls.0.html
  12. Shelley, Kevin. (December 10, 2004). "Complete Statement of Vote". [[Secretary of State of California]].
  13. Shelley, Kevin. (December 10, 2004). "President of the United States". [[Secretary of State of California]].
  14. (2 November 2004). "Counties by Congressional Districts for President".
  15. [https://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/2004_certificates/ U. S. Electoral College 2004 Election - Main Page]
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