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1988 United States presidential election in California

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Field	Value
election_name	1988 United States presidential election in California
country	California
type	presidential
ongoing	no
previous_election	1984 United States presidential election in California
previous_year	1984
next_election	1992 United States presidential election in California
next_year	1992
turnout	72.81% (of registered voters) 2.12 pp
53.51% (of eligible voters) 5.57 pp
election_date	November 8, 1988
image_size	x200px
image1	File:VP George Bush crop.jpg
nominee1	George H. W. Bush
party1	Republican Party (United States)
home_state1	Texas
running_mate1	Dan Quayle
electoral_vote1	47
popular_vote1	5,054,917
percentage1	51.13%
image2	File:Dukakis campaign portrait 3x4.jpg
nominee2	Michael Dukakis
party2	Democratic Party (United States)
home_state2	Massachusetts
running_mate2	Lloyd Bentsen
electoral_vote2	0
popular_vote2	4,702,233
percentage2	47.56%
map_image
title	President
before_election	Ronald Reagan
before_party	Republican Party (United States)
after_election	George H. W. Bush
after_party	Republican Party (United States)

Main article: 1988 United States presidential election

53.51% (of eligible voters) 5.57 pp Bush Dukakis

Bush campaigning in San Francisco on September 14, 1988

Dukakis holds an election eve rally at the [[Pauley Pavilion

The 1988 United States presidential election in California took place on November 8, 1988, and was part of the 1988 United States presidential election. Voters chose 47 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

California voted for the Republican nominee, Vice President George H. W. Bush, over the Democratic nominee, Massachusetts governor Michael Dukakis by a margin of 3.57 percent. Bush won forty-four of the state's fifty-eight counties, but the election was kept close by Dukakis’ strong performance in the Bay Area and his victory in Los Angeles, the state's most populated county. Also, Dukakis won at least 31% of the vote in every county and at least 40 percent in forty of them. Much like Vermont in the same year, California was seen by observers as a swing state in this year's presidential election cycle due to fairly close polling.

California weighed in for this election as 4.2% more Democratic than the nation at large. As of the 2024 presidential election, this is the last presidential race where California voted Republican. From the next election onwards, California would, like fellow West Coast states Oregon and Washington, transition from being swing states to voting consistently for Democratic candidates, forming a "blue wall" of sorts over the next three decades. Oregon and Washington even voted for Dukakis in the election, making this is the only presidential election since 1948 that Oregon and California voted for different candidates, as well as the last presidential election where California voted to the right of both Oregon and Washington. Bush is also the last Republican to carry the following counties in a presidential election: Monterey, Napa, Sacramento, San Benito, and Santa Barbara. Additionally, he is the last Republican to win any county in the Bay Area (Napa), the last Republican to secure at least one-quarter of the vote in San Francisco, the last Republican to win a majority of votes in Imperial County, and the last Republican to secure at least 40% of the vote in Los Angeles County.

Bush became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying Sonoma County, a Republican stronghold for most of the 20th century, since Benjamin Harrison in 1888, as well as the first to do so without carrying Los Angeles County, a bellwether county from 1920 to 1984, since Rutherford Hayes in 1876. Due to Bush's victory in California, this was also the most recent presidential election when the state of Texas would not be the biggest electoral vote prize won by the Republican candidate, and likewise for the Democratic nominee in regards to California, which instead was New York.

General election

Predictions

Source	Rating	As of
The Cook Political Report		September 24, 1988

Results

1988 United States presidential election in California	Party	Candidate	Votes	Percentage
Republican	George Herbert Walker Bush	5,054,917	51.13%	47
Democratic	Michael Stanley Dukakis	4,702,233	47.56%	0
Libertarian	Ron Paul	70,105	0.71%	0
Independent	Lenora Fulani	31,180	0.32%	0
American Independent	James C. Griffin	27,818	0.28%	0
No party	David Duke (write-in)	483	0.00%	0
No party	Eugene McCarthy (write-in)	234	0.00%	0
No party	Herbert G. Lewin (write-in)	58	0.00%	0
No party	Write-in	25	0.00%	0
No party	Larry Holmes (write-in)	11	0.00%	0
Invalid or blank votes			—
Totals	9,887,064	100.00%	47
Voter turnout		—

By county

County	George H.W. Bush
Republican	Michael Dukakis
Democratic	Various candidates
Other parties	Margin	Total votes cast	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%	Total	5,054,917	51.13%	4,702,233	47.56%	129,914	1.31%	352,684	3.57%	9,887,064
	Alameda		162,815		33.99%		310,283		64.78%		5,899		1.23%		-147,468		-30.79%		478,997
	Alpine		306		55.43%		230		41.67%		16		2.90%		76		13.76%		552
	Amador		6,893		55.87%		5,197		42.12%		248		2.01%		1,696		13.75%		12,338
	Butte		40,143		56.04%		30,406		42.45%		1,082		1.51%		9,737		13.59%		71,631
	Calaveras		7,640		56.28%		5,674		41.80%		260		1.92%		1,966		14.48%		13,574
	Colusa		3,077		59.49%		2,022		39.10%		73		1.41%		1,055		20.39%		5,172
	Contra Costa		158,652		47.86%		169,411		51.10%		3,448		1.04%		-10,759		-3.24%		331,511
	Del Norte		3,714		49.73%		3,587		48.03%		167		2.24%		127		1.70%		7,468
	El Dorado		30,021		59.33%		19,801		39.13%		781		1.54%		10,220		20.20%		50,603
	Fresno		94,835		49.95%		92,635		48.79%		2,400		1.26%		2,200		1.16%		189,870
	Glenn		4,944		62.06%		2,894		36.33%		128		1.61%		2,050		25.73%		7,966
	Humboldt		21,460		41.15%		29,781		57.11%		905		1.74%		-8,321		-15.96%		52,146
	Imperial		12,889		55.16%		10,243		43.84%		233		1.00%		2,646		11.32%		23,365
	Inyo		5,042		64.34%		2,653		33.85%		142		1.81%		2,389		30.49%		7,837
	Kern		90,550		61.48%		55,083		37.40%		1,660		1.12%		35,467		24.08%		147,293
	Kings		12,118		56.41%		9,142		42.56%		222		1.03%		2,976		13.85%		21,482
	Lake		9,366		48.03%		9,828		50.39%		308		1.58%		-462		-2.36%		19,502
	Lassen		5,157		58.59%		3,446		39.15%		199		2.26%		1,711		19.44%		8,802
	Los Angeles		1,239,716		46.88%		1,372,352		51.89%		32,603		1.23%		-132,636		-5.01%		2,644,671
	Madera		13,255		54.59%		10,642		43.83%		384		1.58%		2,613		10.76%		24,281
	Marin		46,855		39.73%		69,394		58.85%		1,671		1.42%		-22,539		-19.12%		117,920
	Mariposa		3,768		54.53%		2,998		43.39%		144		2.08%		770		11.14%		6,910
	Mendocino		12,979		41.94%		17,152		55.42%		816		2.64%		-4,173		-13.48%		30,947
	Merced		21,717		51.20%		20,105		47.40%		592		1.40%		1,612		3.80%		42,414
	Modoc		2,518		62.68%		1,416		35.25%		83		2.07%		1,102		27.43%		4,017
	Mono		2,177		61.38%		1,284		36.20%		86		2.42%		893		25.18%		3,547
	Monterey		50,022		49.83%		48,998		48.81%		1,361		1.36%		1,024		1.02%		100,381
	Napa		23,235		50.19%		22,283		48.14%		772		1.67%		952		2.05%		46,290
	Nevada		21,383		57.76%		14,980		40.46%		660		1.78%		6,403		17.30%		37,023
	Orange		586,230		67.75%		269,013		31.09%		10,064		1.16%		317,217		36.66%		865,307
	Placer		42,096		59.59%		27,516		38.95%		1,030		1.46%		14,580		20.64%		70,642
	Plumas		4,603		51.06%		4,251		47.15%		161		1.79%		352		3.91%		9,015
	Riverside		199,979		59.46%		133,122		39.58%		3,247		0.96%		66,857		19.88%		336,348
	Sacramento		201,832		51.01%		188,557		47.65%		5,301		1.34%		13,275		3.36%		395,690
	San Benito		5,578		54.11%		4,559		44.23%		171		1.66%		1,019		9.88%		10,308
	San Bernardino		235,167		59.99%		151,118		38.55%		5,723		1.46%		84,049		21.44%		392,008
	San Diego		523,143		60.19%		333,264		38.34%		12,788		1.47%		189,879		21.85%		869,195
	San Francisco		72,503		26.14%		201,887		72.78%		3,004		1.08%		-129,384		-46.64%		277,394
	San Joaquin		75,309		54.39%		61,699		44.56%		1,445		1.05%		13,610		9.83%		138,453
	San Luis Obispo		46,613		55.85%		35,667		42.73%		1,187		1.42%		10,946		13.12%		83,467
	San Mateo		109,261		42.94%		141,859		55.74%		3,360		1.32%		-32,598		-12.80%		254,480
	Santa Barbara		77,524		54.24%		63,586		44.48%		1,830		1.28%		13,938		9.76%		142,940
	Santa Clara		254,442		46.99%		277,810		51.30%		9,276		1.71%		-23,368		-4.31%		541,528
	Santa Cruz		37,728		36.77%		63,133		61.53%		1,750		1.70%		-25,405		-24.76%		102,611
	Shasta		32,402		59.36%		21,171		38.79%		1,012		1.85%		11,231		20.57%		54,585
	Sierra		860		50.71%		791		46.64%		45		2.65%		69		4.07%		1,696
	Siskiyou		9,056		50.88%		8,365		47.00%		376		2.12%		691		3.88%		17,797
	Solano		50,314		47.43%		54,344		51.23%		1,430		1.34%		-4,030		-3.80%		106,088
	Sonoma		67,725		41.91%		91,262		56.48%		2,596		1.61%		-23,537		-14.57%		161,583
	Stanislaus		51,648		53.07%		44,685		45.92%		982		1.01%		6,963		7.15%		97,315
	Sutter		14,100		67.47%		6,557		31.09%		241		1.14%		7,543		36.38%		20,898
	Tehama		9,854		56.52%		7,213		41.37%		367		2.11%		2,641		15.15%		17,434
	Trinity		3,267		54.63%		2,518		42.11%		195		3.26%		749		12.52%		5,980
	Tulare		46,891		59.61%		30,711		39.04%		1,067		1.35%		16,180		20.57%		78,669
	Tuolumne		10,646		54.00%		8,717		44.22%		352		1.78%		1,929		9.78%		19,715
	Ventura		147,604		61.64%		89,065		37.19%		2,804		1.17%		58,539		24.45%		239,473
	Yolo		22,358		41.89%		30,429		57.01%		585		1.10%		-8,071		-15.12%		53,372
	Yuba		8,937		61.37%		5,444		37.38%		182		1.25%		3,493		23.99%		14,563

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Humboldt
Sonoma
Mendocino
San Mateo
Los Angeles
Santa Clara
Solano
Contra Costa
Lake

By congressional district

Bush won 23 of the 45 congressional districts, including five held by Democrats.

District	Bush	Representative
43.9%	56.1%	Douglas H. Bosco
59.0%	41.0%	Wally Herger
50.4%	49.6%	Bob Matsui
51.5%	48.5%	Vic Fazio
28.0%	72.0%	Nancy Pelosi
35.2%	64.8%	Barbara Boxer
46.1%	53.9%	George Miller
29.4%	70.6%	Ron Dellums
42.4%	57.6%	Pete Stark
44.2%	55.8%	Don Edwards
41.3%	58.7%	Tom Lantos
50.1%	49.9%	Tom Campbell
49.8%	50.2%	Norman Mineta
59.8%	40.2%	Norman D. Shumway
52.8%	47.2%	Tony Coelho
45.0%	55.0%	Leon Panetta
59.4%	40.6%	Chip Pashayan
46.5%	53.5%	Richard Lehman
54.7%	45.3%	Bob Lagomarsino
65.3%	34.7%	Bill Thomas
65.1%	34.9%	Elton Gallegly
64.7%	35.3%	Carlos Moorhead
43.5%	56.5%	Anthony Beilenson
34.3%	65.7%	Henry Waxman
32.1%	67.9%	Edward Roybal
44.1%	55.9%	Howard Berman
44.8%	55.2%	Mel Levine
26.4%	73.6%	Julian Dixon
19.3%	80.7%	Augustus Hawkins
46.6%	53.4%	Matthew Martinez
34.8%	65.2%	Mervyn Dymally
50.4%	49.6%	Glenn Anderson
63.1%	36.9%	David Dreier
49.1%	50.9%	Ed Torres
66.2%	33.8%	Jerry Lewis
52.0%	48.0%	George Brown
61.5%	38.5%	Al McCandless
61.7%	38.3%	Bob Dornan
71.5%	28.5%	William Dannemeyer
68.7%	31.3%	Christopher Cox
59.1%	40.9%	Bill Lowery
65.7%	34.3%	Dana Rohrabacher
68.8%	31.2%	Ron Packard
47.9%	52.1%	Jim Bates
66.8%	33.2%	Duncan Hunter

Analysis

California voted Republican in 1988 for the 9th time out of 10 elections from 1952 on, confirming its status as a Republican electoral bulwark during this period. However, George H. W. Bush won California by only 3.57% even as he won nationally by 7.72%; and Florida displaced it as the state providing the Republican with his biggest raw-vote margin in the nation. Signs of the phenomena that would come to make California a 'Blue Wall' state from 1992 on emerged in this election; for the first time since 1916, Los Angeles County voted for the loser of the national election. Bush was also nearly swept out of the Bay Area, losing populous former Republican strongholds such as Santa Clara, San Mateo, Sonoma, and Marin Counties (as well as Santa Cruz County, the northernmost Central Coast county). While Bush continued to do well in San Diego, Orange, and Ventura Counties (and, to a lesser extent, Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo, and Monterey Counties, as well as in relatively thinly populated Napa County), this represented a significant erosion of the Republican Party's traditional base along the length of California's coast. By 2016 2020 and 2024, this process was complete, as every coastal county in the state save Del Norte voted Democratic three elections in a row.

On the other hand, in contrast to the 1976, 1968, 1960, and 1948 elections in California, all of which had been close (and which had been won by the Democrat in 1948), Dukakis carried little of inland California, which had traditionally been the Democratic base in the state. Counties that had voted Democratic in all four of those elections, but voted Republican in 1988, included Sacramento, Fresno, Placer, Merced, Shasta, Madera, Amador, Lassen, Plumas, Trinity, and Sierra Counties. Apart from Sacramento, Fresno, and Merced Counties, these have continued to remain as Republican strongholds in the state even as overall it has become increasingly blue in the 21st century. Comparing 1988 directly with what at the time was the most recent close election in California, 1976, Dukakis carried only nine of the 27 counties Carter carried in the state. Three of these (Shasta, Plumas, and Sierra) had even voted for McGovern in the disastrous Democratic defeat of 1972.

References

"Historical Voter Registration and Participation in Statewide General Elections 1910-2018".
(July 3, 2018). "Opinion: The GOP's Long Slide into Irrelevance in California".
"1988 CPR Electoral College Ratings".
"1988 Presidential General Election Results - California". Dave Leip's U.S. Election Atlas.
"1988 United States Presidential Election, Results by Congressional District".
(December 1, 2016). "Red States and Blue States Are a Myth".
(July 2, 2018). "The California Republican Party's long slide into irrelevance".

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