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1999 Portuguese legislative election

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Field	Value
election_name	1999 Portuguese legislative election
country	Portugal
type	parliamentary
ongoing	no
previous_election	1995 Portuguese legislative election
previous_year	1995
next_election	2002 Portuguese legislative election
next_year	2002
seats_for_election	All 230 seats in the Assembly of the Republic
majority_seats	116
registered	8,864,604 0.5%
turnout	5,415,150 (61.1%)
5.2 pp
election_date	10 October 1999
image1
leader1	António Guterres
party1	Socialist Party (Portugal)
leader_since1	23 February 1992
leaders_seat1	Castelo Branco
last_election1	112 seats, 43.8%
seats1	115
seat_change1	3
popular_vote1	2,385,922
percentage1	44.1%
swing1	0.3 pp
image2
leader2	José Durão Barroso
party2	Social Democratic Party (Portugal)
leader_since2	2 May 1999
leaders_seat2	Lisbon
last_election2	88 seats, 34.1%
seats2	81
seat_change2	7
popular_vote2	1,750,158
percentage2	32.3%
swing2	1.8 pp
image3
colour3	FF0000
leader3	Carlos Carvalhas
party3	PCP
alliance3	CDU
leader_since3	5 December 1992
leaders_seat3	Lisbon
last_election3	15 seats, 8.6%
seats3	17
seat_change3	2
popular_vote3	487,058
percentage3	9.0%
swing3	0.4 pp
image4
leader4	Paulo Portas
party4	CDS – People's Party
leader_since4	22 March 1998
leaders_seat4	Aveiro
last_election4	15 seats, 9.0%
seats4	15
seat_change4	0
popular_vote4	451,643
percentage4	8.3%
swing4	0.7 pp
image5
leader5	Francisco Louçã
party5	Left Bloc (Portugal)
leader_since5	24 March 1999
leaders_seat5	Lisbon
last_election5	Did not contest
seats5	2
seat_change5	2
popular_vote5	132,333
percentage5	2.4%
swing5	New party
<!-- Map -->	title	Prime Minister
posttitle	Prime Minister after election
before_election	António Guterres
before_party	Socialist Party (Portugal)
after_election	António Guterres
after_party	Socialist Party (Portugal)
map	{{Switcher
outgoing_members	outgoing members
elected_members	elected members

5.2 pp

The 1999 Portuguese legislative election took place on 10 October. The election renewed all 230 members of the Assembly of the Republic.

After becoming the first minority government in Portuguese democracy to complete a full 4-year term, the Socialist Party was aiming a second term under the lead of Prime Minister António Guterres, as a good economy and Portugal's growing prestige, following the Expo 1998 and the support for the East-Timor cause, were strengthening the PS position. Polls leading up to the election predicted a comfortable PS majority government. Adding to this, the main opposition party, the Social Democratic Party (PSD), was exiting an internal crisis after former leader Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa resigned in March 1999 amid disagreements with the CDS-People's Party leader, Paulo Portas, regarding a future PSD/CDS alliance for these elections. The party elected, in a snap party congress in May 1999, José Manuel Durão Barroso as new leader.

Despite opinion polls predictions, the election results were labeled as a disappointment for the Socialists as the party failed to win a historical absolute majority by just one MP and barely improved their 1995 score, just 0.3 percentage points. The disappointing PS score would create instability in Guterres second government in the years to follow. The Social Democratic Party was still away from the preferences of the majority of the Portuguese people, after the ten years cycle under the lead of Cavaco Silva that had terminated four years before, and lost 7 MPs, compared with 1995, and gathered 32 percent of the votes. The Democratic Unity Coalition achieved an important climb in the scorecard, against those who predicted its irreversible decline after the end of the Socialist Bloc in the early 1990s. The CDS-People's Party was able to hold on to its 15 MPs after tensions with the PSD earlier that year. For the first time, the Left Bloc, formed after the merger of several minor left-wing parties became represented in the parliament after electing two MPs.

Turnout in this election was very low, only being surpassed by all elections after 2009 when turnout stands below 60 percent. Overall, voter turnout was only 61 percent of voters, one of the lowest ever recorded.

Background

Leadership changes and challenges

PSD 1996 leadership election

After leading his party to two successive defeats, in the 1995 election and in the 1996 Presidential election, then PSD leader Fernando Nogueira resigned. A party congress to elect a new leader was called for late March 1996. For that leadership ballot, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa announced his candidacy, just a few days after saying a phrase that would become famous in Portuguese politics, "Not even if Christ descends to earth, will I run." Marcelo faced Pedro Santana Lopes, which repeated his failed bid of 1995. Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa was easily elected as PSD leader. The results were the following: |- style="background-color:#E9E9E9" ! align="center" colspan=2 style="width: 60px"|Candidate ! align="center" style="width: 50px"|Votes ! align="center" style="width: 50px"|%

-
-
- style="background-color:#E9E9E9"
-
}

CDS–PP 1998 leadership election

Then CDS leader, Manuel Monteiro, resigned from the leadership after the party's poor results in the 1997 local elections. Paulo Portas, which had a tense relationship with Monteiro, announced his candidacy but faced the candidate of the "Monteiro wing", Maria José Nogueira Pinto. The congress was very tense, with strong accusations between both candidates, but in the end Paulo Portas was elected as new party leader: |- style="background-color:#E9E9E9" ! align="center" colspan=2 style="width: 60px"|Candidate ! align="center" style="width: 50px"|Votes ! align="center" style="width: 50px"|%

-
-
- style="background-color:#E9E9E9"
-
}

PSD 1999 leadership election

Then PSD leader Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa plan to creat an electoral alliance with the CDS – People's Party was splitting his party, but nonetheless, the alliance was approved in a party congress in February 1999. However, at the same a time, a scandal involving CDS–PP leader Paulo Portas, the "Moderna affair", in which corrupt deals and bad management were done in Moderna University, was creating a bad mood between PSD and CDS–PP and, specially, between the two party's leaders. In late March, Paulo Portas gives an interview on SIC that precipitated Marcelo's resignation. In that interview, Portas says that the PSD needs to come clean and say if they trust the CDS leader, and that Marcelo told him that a majority of the PSD leadership doesn't like him and feels he's a liability to the alliance. Feeling betrayed and seeing that Portas was untrustworthy, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa resigned from the PSD leadership. A snap party congress was called for early May, and, as the sole candidate, José Manuel Durão Barroso was unanimously elected as the new PSD leader:

|- style="background-color:#E9E9E9" ! align="center" colspan=2 style="width: 60px"|Candidate ! align="center" style="width: 50px"|Votes ! align="center" style="width: 50px"|%

-
- style="background-color:#E9E9E9"
-
}

Electoral system

The Assembly of the Republic has 230 members elected to four-year terms. Governments do not require absolute majority support of the Assembly to hold office, as even if the number of opposers of government is larger than that of the supporters, the number of opposers still needs to be equal or greater than 116 (absolute majority) for both the Government's Programme to be rejected or for a motion of no confidence to be approved.

The number of seats assigned to each district depends on the district magnitude. The use of the d'Hondt method makes for a higher effective threshold than certain other allocation methods such as the Hare quota or Sainte-Laguë method, which are more generous to small parties.

For these elections, and compared with the 1995 elections, the MPs distributed by districts were the following:

District	Number of MPs	Map
Lisbon	49
Porto	37
Braga	17
Setúbal	17
Aveiro	15
Leiria, Santarém and Coimbra	10
Viseu	9
Faro	8
Viana do Castelo	6
Azores, Castelo Branco, Madeira and Vila Real	5
Bragança, Évora and Guarda	4
Beja and Portalegre	3
Europe and Outside Europe	2

Parties

The table below lists the parties represented in the Assembly of the Republic during the 7th legislature (1995–1999) and that also partook in the election:

Name	Ideology	Political position	Leader
Socialist Party (Portugal)}};"		PS	Socialist Party
Partido Socialista	Social democracy
Third Way	Centre-left to Centre	António Guterres	43.8%
Social Democratic Party (Portugal)}};"		PPD/PSD	Social Democratic Party
Partido Social Democrata	Liberal conservatism
Classical liberalism	Centre-right	José Manuel Durão Barroso	34.1%
CDS – People's Party}};"		CDS-PP	CDS – People's Party
Centro Democrático e Social – Partido Popular	Christian democracy
Conservatism	Centre-right
to right-wing	Paulo Portas	9.1%
	PCP	Portuguese Communist Party
Partido Comunista Português	Communism
Marxism–Leninism	Far-left	Carlos Carvalhas
8.6%

Ecologist Party "The Greens"}};"		PEV	Ecologist Party "The Greens"
Partido Ecologista "Os Verdes"	Eco-socialism
Green politics	Left-wing	Isabel Castro

Campaign period

Party slogans

Party or alliance	English translation	Refs
Socialist Party (Portugal)}}"	PS	« Portugal em boas mãos »	"Portugal in good hands"
Social Democratic Party (Portugal)}}"	PSD	« Vamos cumprir »	"We will deliver"
CDS – People's Party}}"	CDS–PP	« Alternativa'99 »	"Alternative'99"
Unitary Democratic Coalition}}"	CDU	« Para que não fique tudo na mesma »	"So that everything will not stay the same"
Left Bloc (Portugal)}}"	BE	« É tempo de ser exigente »	"It's time to be demanding"

Candidates' debates

1999 Portuguese legislative election debates	Date	Organisers	Moderator(s)	Present Absent invitee Non-invitee	PS
Guterres	PSD
Barroso	CDU
Carvalhas	CDS–PP
Portas	Refs	Socialist Party (Portugal)}};"		Social Democratic Party (Portugal)}};"		Unitary Democratic Coalition}};"		CDS – People's Party}};"		Candidate viewed as "most convincing" in each debate	Date	Organisers	Polling firm/Link	PS	PSD	CDU	CDS–PP	Notes	Socialist Party (Portugal)}};"	Social Democratic Party (Portugal)}};"	Unitary Democratic Coalition}};"	CDS – People's Party}};"
16 Sep	SIC	José Alberto Carvalho	P	P	N	N	date=9 September 2015	url=https://expresso.pt/politica/2015-09-09-Como-Guterres-mudou-os-debates-para-sempre-e-as-arrobas-chegaram-ao-estrelato	title=Como Guterres mudou os debates para sempre e as arrobas chegaram ao estrelato	language=pt	work=Expresso	access-date=11 May 2020}}
17 Sep	SIC	José Alberto Carvalho	N	N	P	P
19 Sep	SIC	José Alberto Carvalho	N	P	N	P
20 Sep	SIC	José Alberto Carvalho	P	N	P	N
21 Sep	SIC	José Alberto Carvalho	P	N	N	P
22 Sep	SIC	José Alberto Carvalho	N	P	P	N
23 Sep	RTP1	Judite de Sousa	P	P	P	P
16 Sep	SIC	SIC		57	25			18% Neither

Opinion polling

The following table shows the opinion polls of voting intention of the Portuguese voters before the election. Included is also the result of the Portuguese general elections in 1995 and 1999 for reference.

Note, until 2000, the publication of opinion polls in the last week of the campaign was forbidden.

Polling firm/Link	Date Released	[[File:PS Logo (Text version).png	35px	link=Socialist Party (Portugal)	PS]]	[[File:PSD (1999-2008).png	33px	link=Social Democratic Party (Portugal)
1999 legislative election	10 Oct 1999	44.1
32.3
8.3
9.0
2.4
3.9
11.8
UCP	10 Oct 1999	46.0	30.3	7.5	8.5	2.5	5.2	15.7
Seeds	10 Oct 1999	46.3	31.5	8.0	9.8	2.8	1.6	14.8
Intercampus	10 Oct 1999	46.3	28.6	8.3	9.5	3.2	4.1	17.7
Euroexpansão	2 Oct 1999	50	32	8	6	2	2	18
Seeds	1 Oct 1999	47	32	7	8	1	5	15
Metris	1 Oct 1999	48	31	7	7	1	6	17
UCP	1 Oct 1999	47.2	30.0	7.2	7.9	2.8	4.9	17.2
Marktest	30 Sep 1999	46.2	30.7	4.2	10.6	2.8	5.5	15.5
Aximage	30 Sep 1999	49	33	6	7	1	4	16
Euroexpansão	25 Sep 1999	50.0	33.8				16.2	16.2
SIC/Visão	23 Sep 1999	46.8	31.8				21.4	15.0
Euroexpansão	18 Sep 1999	49.0	35.4				15.6	13.5
Independente	17 Sep 1999	45.0	34.2				20.8	10.8
UCP	14 Sep 1999	56.4	30.1				13.5	26.3
UCP	29 Jul 1999	52.0	31.6	6.2	6.9	1.9	1.4	20.4
1999 EP elections	13 Jun 1999	43.1	31.1	8.2	10.3	1.8	5.5	12.0
UCP	19 Mar 1999	55.3	32.6	9.3	2.0	0.8	22.7
UCP	Sep 1998	45.3	36.1	5.2	6.9		6.5	9.2
1997 local elections	14 Dec 1997	41.3	35.2	6.3	12.0		5.2	6.1
UCP	21 Mar 1997	40	33	6.5	8		12.5	7
UCP	Dec 1996	47	29				24	18
1995 legislative election	1 Oct 1995	43.8
34.1
9.1
8.6
	4.4
9.7

Results

National summary

Distribution by constituency

1.7
5.6
-
1.1
-
5
-
7
38.3
6
3.5
-
13.6
2
1.3
-
15
-
2
14.5
-
28.3
1
3.9
-
1.6
-
3
-
8
36.7
7
5.4
1
8.9
1
1.2
-
17
-
39.7
2
2
2.6
-
8.7
-
0.8
-
4
-
3
32.0
2
5.3
-
6.3
-
1.2
-
5
-
6
35.2
4
6.1
-
6.0
-
2.0
-
10
-
2
18.7
1
24.6
1
5.1
-
1.5
-
4
-
5
29.5
3
8.3
-
7.3
-
2.3
-
8
-
2
39.2
2
3.2
-
9.8
-
1.1
-
4
-
36.8
4
5
5.3
-
9.9
1
1.7
-
10
-
23
27.3
14
12.3
6
8.5
4
4.9
2
49
-
35.1
2
3
2.8
-
10.9
-
1.2
-
5
-
2
22.5
1
15.0
-
5.9
-
1.2
-
3
-
19
32.7
13
6.2
2
7.5
3
2.3
-
37
-
5
30.2
3
10.1
1
8.1
1
2.0
-
10
-
8
18.0
3
24.8
5
5.6
1
3.5
-
17
-
3
35.8
2
5.0
-
14.0
1
1.2
-
6
-
40.8
2
3
2.4
-
6.8
-
0.8
-
5
-
38.1
4
4
2.2
-
10.5
1
1.2
-
9
-
2
24.7
-
5.3
-
3.2
-
0.6
-
2
-
39.8
1
1
1.7
-
3.5
-
0.4
-
2
-
- class="unsortable" style="background:#E9E9E9"
115
32.3
81
9.0
17
8.3
15
2.4
2
230
-
}

Maps

File:Pt euelection 1999.PNG|Most voted political force by district. (Madeira and Azores not shown) File:1999 Portuguese legislative election district results.svg|Winner and seats by constituency. File:Legislativas portuguesas de 1999 (Mapa).png|Most voted political force by municipality.

Aftermath

Guterres second government was haunted by its failure in winning an absolute majority in the 1999 elections. The tie between the Government and the opposition created a series of problems to Guterres as all opposition parties, PSD, CDU, CDS–PP and BE, refused to negotiate with the Government. In the 2000 budget, CDS–PP decided to abstain and the budget passed:

Ballot →	15 March 2000	Required majority →	Result →
Simple
{{Collapsible list	title = Yes	• PS (115)
{{Collapsible list	title = No	• PSD (81)	• PCP (15)	• PEV (2)
{{Collapsible list	title = Abstentions	• CDS–PP (15)
Absentees
Approved
Sources

However, after the 2000 budget, CDS–PP was no longer willing to support Guterres and, the solution found was a controversial one: With a sole CDS–PP MP, Daniel Campelo, Guterres secured the approval of his two following annual State Budgets in exchange for the government financing a cheese factory in Campelo's hometown of Ponte de Lima, in Viana do Castelo district. The 2001 and 2002 budgets were approved with the abstention of this sole CDS–PP MP: Campelo was ultimately suspended from CDS–PP, and from November 2000 onwards, sat as an Independent.

Ballot →	29 November 2000	Required majority →	Result →
Simple
{{Collapsible list	title = Yes	• PS (115)
{{Collapsible list	title = No	• PSD (81)	• PCP (15)	• CDS–PP (14)
{{Collapsible list	title = Abstentions	• Ind. Daniel Campelo (1)
Absentees
Approved
Sources

Ballot →	30 November 2001	Required majority →	Result →
Simple
{{Collapsible list	title = Yes	• PS (115)
{{Collapsible list	title = No	• PSD (81)	• PCP (15)	• CDS–PP (14)
{{Collapsible list	title = Abstentions	• Ind. Daniel Campelo (1)
Absentees
Approved
Sources

Fall of the government

Besides his fragile majority to approve major legislation, Guterres also suffered with a lot of instability within his own cabinet, with two reshuffles in just four months during 2001. The Hintze Ribeiro Bridge collapse generated public anger against the government, which eroded even more Guterres' popularity. By 2001, the economy was also showing strong signs of slowdown, in a time when Portugal was about to enter into the Euro common currency and was suffering from the global impact of the September 11 attacks. All these problems culminated in the December 2001 local elections, where the PS suffered a big defeat and saw major urban centers, mainly Lisbon and Porto, swing dramatically to the right-wing, so, in response, Guterres announced his resignation as Prime Minister. President Jorge Sampaio dissolved Parliament and called an election for 17 March 2002.

Notes

| The Portuguese Communist Party (PCP) and the Ecologist Party "The Greens" (PEV) contested the 1999 election in a coalition called Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU) and won a combined 8.6% of the vote and elected 15 MPs to parliament.

| Poll with the proposed Democratic Alliance (AD) between PSD and CDS–PP that ultimately failed and didn't run for the elections.

| Portuguese Communist Party (15 MPs) and "The Greens" (2 MPs) ran in coalition.

| Democratic Party of the Atlantic electoral list only in Azores.

References

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[https://www.publico.pt/2001/12/17/politica/noticia/guterres-deve-formalizar-hoje-pedido-de-demissao-54776 "Guterres deve formalizar hoje pedido de demissão "], ''Público'', 17 December 2001. Retrieved 8 December 2023.

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