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1995 Portuguese legislative election

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FieldValue
election_name1995 Portuguese legislative election
countryPortugal
typeparliamentary
ongoingno
previous_election1991 Portuguese legislative election
previous_year1991
next_election1999 Portuguese legislative election
next_year1999
seats_for_electionAll 230 seats in the Assembly of the Republic
majority_seats116
registered8,906,608 5.3%
turnout5,904,854 (66.3%)
1.5 pp
election_date1 October 1995
image1
leader1António Guterres
party1Socialist Party (Portugal)
leader_since123 February 1992
leaders_seat1Castelo Branco
last_election172 seats, 29.1%
seats1**112**
seat_change140
popular_vote1**2,583,755**
percentage1**43.8%**
swing114.7 pp
image2
leader2Fernando Nogueira
party2Social Democratic Party (Portugal)
leader_since219 February 1995
leaders_seat2Porto
last_election2135 seats, 50.6%
seats288
seat_change247
popular_vote22,014,589
percentage234.1%
swing216.5 pp
image4
leader4Manuel Monteiro
party4CDS – People's Party
leader_since422 March 1992
leaders_seat4Braga
last_election45 seats, 4.4%
seats415
seat_change410
popular_vote4534,470
percentage49.1%
swing44.7 pp
image5
colour5FF0000
leader5Carlos Carvalhas
party5PCP
alliance5CDU
leader_since55 December 1992
leaders_seat5Lisbon
last_election517 seats, 8.8%
seats515
seat_change52
popular_vote5506,157
percentage58.6%
swing50.2 pp
<!-- Map -->titlePrime Minister
posttitlePrime Minister after election
before_electionAníbal Cavaco Silva
before_partySocial Democratic Party (Portugal)
after_electionAntónio Guterres
after_partySocialist Party (Portugal)
map{{Switcher
outgoing_members[outgoing members](6th-legislature-of-the-third-portuguese-republic)
elected_members[elected members](7th-legislature-of-the-third-portuguese-republic)

1.5 pp

| [[File:1995 Portuguese legislative election - Results.svg|230px]] | Vote winner strength by district | [[File:1995 Portuguese legislative election district results.svg|272px]] | Results by constituency

The 1995 Portuguese legislative election took place on 1 October. The election renewed all 230 members of the Assembly of the Republic.

The incumbent prime minister, Aníbal Cavaco Silva, decided not to run for a fourth consecutive term and the Social Democratic Party, choose Fernando Nogueira, one of Cavaco Silva's deputies, as leader and candidate for prime minister in a highly contested and bitter party congress in February 1995. But, the PSD was weakened by the end of the 10-year cycle of governments led by Cavaco Silva, amid scandals and the 1994 25 April bridge riots that shocked the country. During the campaign, Cavaco Silva toyed with the idea of running for the 1996 Presidential elections, which he ultimately did.

The PS easily won the elections with 44 percent of the votes, against the 34 percent of the PSD, achieving their first general election victory since 1983 and after a decade in opposition, but missed the absolute majority by 4 MPs. António Guterres, elected as PS leader three years before, became prime minister. The Social Democratic Party suffered a heavy defeat, losing almost 50 seats and 17 percentage points. This election marked the growing bi-polarization of the Portuguese political map. The two minor parties, the People's Party and the Democratic Unity Coalition (CDU) achieved only 15 MPs each, and for the first time ever the CDU failed to win a single district.

Although turnout, in percentage point, was lower than the previous election in 1991, almost 6 million voters cast a ballot on election day, the highest figure since 1980. Voter turnout stood at 66.3 percent, the lowest until then.

Background

Leadership changes and challenges

The four main parties all changed their leaders during the 1991–1995 legislature.

PS 1992 leadership election

The 1991 general election Socialist defeat, and the scale of it, surprised the party, with António Guterres actually saying he "was in shock". Then PS leader, Jorge Sampaio, faced a lot of criticisms about his strategy but, announced he was running for reelection as party leader. He would face António Guterres and Álvaro Beleza. A party leadership congress was called for February 1992, but, during the days prior to the start of the congress, Sampaio withdrew from the race and Guterres was easily elected as party leader: The results were the following: |- style="background-color:#E9E9E9" ! align="center" colspan=2 style="width: 60px"|Candidate ! align="center" style="width: 50px"|Votes ! align="center" style="width: 50px"|% |- | |- | |- | |-

- style="background-color:#E9E9E9"
}

CDS–PP 1992 leadership election

Then CDS leader, Diogo Freitas do Amaral, resigned from the leadership following the party's poor results in the 1991 general elections. A party congress to elect a new leader was called for late March 1992 and 3 candidates were on the ballot: Manuel Monteiro, Basílio Horta, the party's candidate for the 1991 Presidential election and António Lobo Xavier. Manuel Monteiro was easily elected as leader: |- style="background-color:#E9E9E9" ! align="center" colspan=2 style="width: 60px"|Candidate ! align="center" style="width: 50px"|Votes ! align="center" style="width: 50px"|% |- | |- | |- | |-

- style="background-color:#E9E9E9"
}

Following Monteiro's election as leader, the name "People's Party (PP)" was added to the party's name in 1993, and officially approved by party delegates in a party congress two years later, in February 1995.

PCP 1992 leadership election

The historic Portuguese Communist Party leader, Álvaro Cunhal, announced he would step down from the leadership of the party in late 1992. Carlos Carvalhas, the party's deputy leader was chosen as Cunhal's successor and was unanimously elected, but Cunhal remained a powerful figure within the party as a new body, the National Council, was created and Cunhal would lead it. |- style="background-color:#E9E9E9" ! align="center" colspan=2 style="width: 60px"|Candidate ! align="center" style="width: 50px"|Votes ! align="center" style="width: 50px"|%

-
- style="background-color:#E9E9E9"
-
}

PSD 1995 leadership election

After serving almost 10 years as prime minister, there were doubts if Cavaco Silva would run for another term, thus, creating a big "taboo" in Portuguese politics. Cavaco promised a decision during the spring of 1995, but in January 1995, he announced he would not run for another term as prime minister and PSD leader. This led the PSD to call a congress to elect a new leader. The congress become iconic for how tense and stormy it was, with strong accusations between several party members. Three candidates announced a run for the leadership: Fernando Nogueira, former defense minister, José Manuel Durão Barroso, foreign affairs minister, and Pedro Santana Lopes, former culture secretary. Santana Lopes withdrew before the ballot, and Fernando Nogueira narrowly defeated Durão Barroso by just 33 votes. The results were the following: |- style="background-color:#E9E9E9" ! align="center" colspan=2 style="width: 60px"|Candidate ! align="center" style="width: 50px"|Votes ! align="center" style="width: 50px"|%

-
-
-
- style="background-color:#E9E9E9"
-
}

Electoral system

The Assembly of the Republic has 230 members elected to four-year terms. Governments do not require absolute majority support of the Assembly to hold office, as even if the number of opposers of government is larger than that of the supporters, the number of opposers still needs to be equal or greater than 116 (absolute majority) for both the Government's Programme to be rejected or for a motion of no confidence to be approved.

The number of seats assigned to each district depends on the district magnitude. The use of the d'Hondt method makes for a higher effective threshold than certain other allocation methods such as the Hare quota or Sainte-Laguë method, which are more generous to small parties.

For these elections, and compared with the 1991 elections, the MPs distributed by districts were the following:

DistrictNumber of MPsMap
Lisbon50
Porto37
Setúbal17
Braga16
Aveiro14
Leiria, Santarém and Coimbra10
Viseu9
Faro8
Viana do Castelo6
Azores, Castelo Branco, Madeira and Vila Real5
Beja, Bragança, Évora and Guarda4
Portalegre3
Europe and Outside Europe2

Parties

The table below lists the parties represented in the Assembly of the Republic during the 6th legislature (1991–1995) and that also partook in the election:

NameIdeologyPolitical positionLeader1991 resultSeats at
dissolution%Seats
Social Democratic Party (Portugal)}};"**PPD/PSD**Social Democratic Party
Partido Social DemocrataLiberal conservatism
Classical liberalismCentre-rightFernando Nogueira50.6%
Socialist Party (Portugal)}};"**PS**Socialist Party
Partido SocialistaSocial democracy
Third WayCentre-leftAntónio Guterres29.1%
**PCP**Portuguese Communist Party
Partido Comunista PortuguêsCommunism
Marxism–LeninismFar-leftCarlos Carvalhas
8.8%
Ecologist Party "The Greens"}};"**PEV**Ecologist Party "The Greens"
Partido Ecologista "Os Verdes"Eco-socialism
Green politicsLeft-wingIsabel Castro
CDS – People's Party}};"**CDS-PP**CDS – People's Party
Centro Democrático e Social – Partido PopularChristian democracy
National conservatismCentre-right
to right-wingManuel Monteiro4.4%
**PSN**National Solidarity Party
Partido da Solidariedade NacionalHumanism
Pensioners' rightsCentreCarlos Bastos1.7%
Independent}};"**Ind.**Independent
IndependenteDiogo Freitas do Amaral (left the CDS – People's Party caucus)

Seat changes

  • On 9 December 1992, former party leader, founder and MP Diogo Freitas do Amaral, elected in the CDS list for Lisbon, left the party and became an Independent member following deep disagreements regarding the ideological and political direction of the party led by Manuel Monteiro, elected just a few months earlier.

Campaign period

Party slogans

Party or allianceOriginal sloganEnglish translationRefs
Social Democratic Party (Portugal)}}"PSD« Mais e melhor para Portugal »"More and better for Portugal"
Socialist Party (Portugal)}}"PS« A nova maioria »"The new majority."
Unitary Democratic Coalition}}"CDU« Vamos dar a volta a isto »"Let's turn this around"
CDS – People's Party}}"CDS–PP« Vamos dar lugar a Portugal »"Let's make way for Portugal"

Candidates' debates

The 1995 debates, between PSD leader Fernando Nogueira and PS leader António Guterres, were the first general election debates since the 1985 elections.

1995 Portuguese legislative election debatesDateOrganisersModerator(s)Present Absent invitee Non-inviteePSD
NogueiraPS
GuterresRefsSocial Democratic Party (Portugal)}};"Socialist Party (Portugal)}};"
6 SepRTP1José Eduardo Moniz
Maria Elisa Domingues**P****P**date=4 September 2009url=https://www.cmjornal.pt/tv-media/detalhe/o-que-mudam-os-debates-na-tvtitle=O que mudam os debates na TVlanguage=ptwork=Correio da Manhãaccess-date=11 May 2020}}
13 SepSICMiguel Sousa Tavares
Margarida Marante**P****P**

Opinion polling

The following table shows the opinion polls of voting intention of the Portuguese voters before the election. Included is also the result of the Portuguese general elections in 1991 and 1995 for reference.

Note, until 2000, the publication of opinion polls in the last week of the campaign was forbidden.

Polling firm/LinkDate Released[[File:PSD (1987-1996).png38pxlink=Social Democratic Party (Portugal)PSD]]PS[[File:Logo of the Unitary Democratic Coalition.svg31pxlink=Unitary Democratic CoalitionCDU]][[File:CDS-PP (1991-2009).png25pxlink=CDS – People's PartyCDS–PP]]OLeadSocial Democratic Party (Portugal)}};"Socialist Party (Portugal)}};"Democratic Unity Coalition}};"CDS – People's Party}};"
**1995 legislative election**1 Oct 199534.1
**43.8**
8.6
9.1
4.4
**9.7**
[Euroteste](https://arquivos.rtp.pt/conteudos/eleicoes-legislativas-1995-parte-ii/)1 Oct 199535–39
**40–45**
7–9
7–9
5–6
[Metris](https://books.google.com/books?id=HT0VAAAAQBAJ&dq=sondagens+legislativas+1995&pg=PT138)1 Oct 199534.5
**42.2**
9.0
9.2
5.1
7.7
[UCP](https://books.google.com/books?id=HT0VAAAAQBAJ&dq=sondagens+legislativas+1995&pg=PT138)1 Oct 199535.5**41**8105.55.5
[Norma](https://elpais.com/diario/1995/09/29/internacional/812329205_850215.html)29 Sep 1995**40.3**35.29.79.35.55.1
[Metris](http://farm1.static.flickr.com/3/4798115_049d4d0e9b.jpg)23 Sep 199532**42**108810
[Euroteste](http://farm1.static.flickr.com/3/4798115_049d4d0e9b.jpg)23 Sep 199535**39**91074
[Euroexpansão](http://farm1.static.flickr.com/3/4798115_049d4d0e9b.jpg)23 Sep 199532.7**44.5**11.56.94.411.8
[UCP](http://farm1.static.flickr.com/3/4798115_049d4d0e9b.jpg)23 Sep 199535**40**91065
[DN/TSF](https://repositorio.ipl.pt/bitstream/10400.21/2932/1/tese_doutoramento.pdf)18 Sep 199533.6**49.7**16.716.1
[IPSOS](http://farm1.static.flickr.com/3/4798115_049d4d0e9b.jpg)22 Sep 199535**41**9966
[Marktest](http://farm1.static.flickr.com/3/4798115_049d4d0e9b.jpg)21 Sep 199533**42**10969
[DN/TSF](https://repositorio.ipl.pt/bitstream/10400.21/2932/1/tese_doutoramento.pdf)18 Sep 199535**38**273
[Compta](http://farm1.static.flickr.com/3/4798115_049d4d0e9b.jpg)16 Sep 199539**40**12811
[Euroexpansão](https://run.unl.pt/bitstream/10362/10943/1/Disserta%25C3%25A7%25C3%25A3o%2520Aluna%2520Joana%2520Freire%2520249617.pdf)16 Sep 199533.7**41.8**8.89.16.68.1
[UCP](https://repositorio.ipl.pt/bitstream/10400.21/2932/1/tese_doutoramento.pdf)14 Sep 199534**42**248
[Semanário](https://repositorio.ipl.pt/bitstream/10400.21/2932/1/tese_doutoramento.pdf)14 Sep 199538.5**40**21.51.5
[DN/TSF](https://repositorio.ipl.pt/bitstream/10400.21/2932/1/tese_doutoramento.pdf)11 Sep 1995**42****42**17Tie
[Euroexpansão](https://run.unl.pt/bitstream/10362/10943/1/Disserta%25C3%25A7%25C3%25A3o%2520Aluna%2520Joana%2520Freire%2520249617.pdf)9 Sep 199531.8**41.5**11.58.76.59.7
[Compta RH](https://arquivos.rtp.pt/conteudos/jogo-aberto-26/)28 Jul 199535.8**43.6**11.77.01.87.8
[Compta RH](https://arquivos.rtp.pt/conteudos/jogo-aberto-23/)14 Jul 199536.8**44.4**9.96.52.47.6
[Compta RH](https://arquivos.rtp.pt/conteudos/jogo-aberto-19/)30 Jun 199534.8**45.4**8.68.13.110.6
[Compta RH](https://arquivos.rtp.pt/conteudos/jogo-aberto-18/)9 Jun 199531.2**45.6**9.78.64.914.4
[Euroteste](https://run.unl.pt/bitstream/10362/2401/1/TSIG0039.pdf)1 May 199540.5**42.5**172
**[1994 EP elections](1994-european-parliament-election-in-portugal)**12 Jun 199434.4**34.9**11.212.57.0**0.5**
**[1993 local elections](1993-portuguese-local-elections)**12 Dec 199333.7**40.2**12.88.44.9**6.5**
[Euroteste](https://observador.pt/2015/11/07/o-independente-a-derrota-espetacular/)24 Sep 1993**44.5**34.810.08.72.09.7
[Euroexpansão](https://arquivos.rtp.pt/conteudos/cavaco-silva-de-visita-a-foz-coa/)29 May 199333.8**34.6**31.60.8
[Euroteste](https://arquivos.rtp.pt/conteudos/cavaco-silva-de-visita-a-foz-coa/)29 May 1993**45.5**34.320.211.2
[Euroexpansão](https://www.caruspinus.pt/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/CaruspinusB_N99_MAI_JUL_1993.pdf)May 199332.8**37.0**5.85.219.24.2
**[1991 legislative election](1991-portuguese-legislative-election)****6 Oct 1991****50.6**
29.1
8.8
4.4
7.1
**21.5**

Results

National summary

Distribution by constituency

|- class="unsortable" !rowspan=2|Constituency!!%!!S!!%!!S!!%!!S!!%!!S !rowspan=2|Total S |- class="unsortable" style="text-align:center;" !colspan=2 | PS !colspan=2 | PSD !colspan=2 | CDS–PP !colspan=2 | CDU |- | 37.6 | 2 | 3

9.4
1.8
-
5
-
40.2
6
6
12.6
2
2.7
-
14
-
2
15.7
1
3.6
-
29.2
1
4
-
8
38.2
7
10.7
1
4.5
-
16
-
40.3
2
2
9.4
-
1.9
-
4
-
3
32.1
2
7.2
-
5.3
-
5
-
6
34.5
4
7.1
-
5.1
-
10
-
2
20.2
1
5.2
-
26.9
1
4
-
5
29.2
3
8.3
-
7.8
-
8
-
2
39.9
2
9.9
-
2.3
-
4
-
36.7
4
5
11.4
1
4.5
-
10
-
24
29.0
15
9.4
5
12.0
6
50
-
32.0
2
3
12.9
-
1.3
-
5
-
2
23.4
1
6.3
-
14.0
-
3
-
18
36.4
14
7.8
3
6.0
2
37
-
5
31.0
3
8.7
1
9.5
1
10
-
9
18.4
3
7.2
1
23.8
4
17
-
38.8
3
3
11.3
-
4.6
-
6
-
40.0
2
3
7.8
-
1.9
-
5
-
38.4
4
4
11.5
1
1.8
-
9
-
1
33.8
1
4.4
-
6.4
-
2
-
12.8
-
2
3.8
-
1.2
-
2
-
- class="unsortable" style="background:#E9E9E9"
112
34.1
88
9.1
15
8.6
15
230
-
}

Maps

File:1995 Portuguese legislative election district results.svg|Winner and seats by constituency. File:Legislativas portuguesas de 1995 (Mapa).png|Most voted political force by municipality.

Notes

| The Portuguese Communist Party (PCP) and the Ecologist Party "The Greens" (PEV) contested the 1999 election in a coalition called Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU) and won a combined 8.8% of the vote and elected 17 MPs to parliament.

| In 1993, the Democratic Social Center added "People's Party (PP)" to the party's name, being officially approved in early 1995.

| Portuguese Communist Party (13 MPs) and "The Greens" (2 MPs) ran in coalition.

References

References

  1. [https://arquivos.rtp.pt/conteudos/cavaco-silva-nao-se-recandidata-ao-psd/ "Cavaco Silva não se recandidata ao PSD"], ''RTP Arquivo'', 23 January 1995. Retrieved 6 September 2020.
  2. [https://www.tsf.pt/politica/big-show-psd-drama-comedia-suspense---ha-de-tudo-em-37-anos-de-congressos-9122718.html ""Big Show PSD": Drama, comédia, suspense - há de tudo em 37 anos de congressos , ''TSF'', 16 February 2018. Retrieved 6 September 2020.]
  3. [https://www.dn.pt/poder/bloqueio-da-ponte-o-principio-do-fim-do-cavaquismo-foi-ha-25-anos-11035094.html "Bloqueio da ponte. O princípio do fim do cavaquismo foi há 25 anos"], ''Diário de Notícias'', 22 July 2019. Retrieved 6 September 2020.
  4. [https://arquivos.rtp.pt/conteudos/conferencia-de-imprensa-de-cavaco-silva-20/ "Conferência de imprensa de Cavaco Silva"], ''RTP Arquivo'', 7 February 1995. Retrieved 6 September 2020.
  5. [https://sol.sapo.pt/artigo/525919/10-momentos-que-marcaram-a-vida-do-novo-secretario-geral-da-onu "10 momentos que marcaram a vida do novo secretário-geral da ONU"], ''Jornal Sol'', 7 October 2016. Retrieved 6 June 2022.
  6. [https://observador.pt/2015/10/05/o-ano-em-que-o-muito-jovem-alvaro-beleza-quis-liderar-o-ps/ "O ano em que (o muito jovem) Álvaro Beleza quis liderar o PS"], ''Observador'', 5 October 2015. Retrieved 6 June 2022.
  7. [https://www.jn.pt/nacional/perdeu-ps-para-guterres-e-beleza-ficou-com-votos-do-lider-no-congresso-14107076.html "Perdeu PS para Guterres e Beleza ficou com votos do líder no congresso"], ''Jornal de Notícias'', 10 September 2021. Retrieved 6 June 2022.
  8. [https://arquivos.rtp.pt/conteudos/demissao-de-freitas-do-amaral/ "Demissão de Freitas do Amaral"], ''RTP'', 7 October 1991. Retrieved 6 June 2022.
  9. [https://arquivos.rtp.pt/conteudos/x-congresso-do-cds-2/ "X Congresso do CDS"], ''RTP'', 21 March 1992. Retrieved 6 June 2022.
  10. [https://arquivos.rtp.pt/conteudos/manuel-monteiro-eleito-lider-do-cds/ "Manuel Monteiro eleito líder do CDS"], ''RTP'', 22 March 1992. Retrieved 6 June 2022.
  11. [https://www.tribunalconstitucional.pt/tc/acordaos/19930282.html "ACÓRDÃO Nº 282/93"], ''[[Constitutional Court (Portugal). Constitutional Court]]'', 30 March 1995. Retrieved 9 November 2025.
  12. [https://arquivos.rtp.pt/conteudos/13o-congresso-do-cds-pp-4/ "13º Congresso do CDS-PP"], ''RTP Arquivos'', 12 February 1995. Retrieved 9 November 2025.
  13. [https://www.dn.pt/arquivo/2005/a-despedida-de-um-lider-que-nunca-deixou-de-o-ser-602742.html "A despedida de um líder que nunca deixou de o ser"], ''Diário de Notícias'', 14 June 2005. Retrieved 6 June 2022.
  14. [https://arquivos.rtp.pt/conteudos/entrevista-a-carlos-carvalhas/ "Entrevista a Carlos Carvalhas"], ''RTP'', 6 December 1991. Retrieved 6 June 2022.
  15. [https://expresso.pt/dossies/diario/o-grande-tabu-quebrou-se-ha-20-anos=f911155 "O grande tabu quebrou-se há 20 anos "], ''Expresso'', 16 February 2015. Retrieved 6 June 2022.
  16. [https://arquivos.rtp.pt/conteudos/cavaco-silva-nao-se-recandidata-ao-psd-2/ "Cavaco Silva não se recandidata ao PSD"], ''RTP'', 23 January 1995. Retrieved 6 June 2022.
  17. [https://www.cmjornal.pt/politica/detalhe/os-segredos-e-os-nomes-de-uma-noite-de-tempestade-no-coliseu "OS SEGREDOS E OS NOMES DE UMA NOITE DE TEMPESTADE NO COLISEU"], ''Correio da Manhã'', 3 October 2003. Retrieved 6 June 2022.
  18. [https://arquivos.rtp.pt/conteudos/candidatos-do-psd-em-acoes-de-campanha/ "Candidatos do PSD em ações de campanha"], ''RTP'', 16 February 1995. Retrieved 6 June 2022.
  19. [https://arquivos.rtp.pt/conteudos/xvii-congresso-do-psd/ "XVII Congresso do PSD"], ''RTP'', 19 February 1995. Retrieved 6 June 2022.
  20. [https://www.publico.pt/2012/03/23/jornal/os-congressos-quentes-do-psd-no-poder-24238345 "Os congressos quentes do PSD no poder "], ''Público'', 23 March 2012. Retrieved 6 June 2022.
  21. "Constitution of the Portuguese Republic".
  22. "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin.
  23. Gallaher, Michael (1992). "[https://www.tcd.ie/Political_Science/staff/michael_gallagher/BJPS1992.pdf Comparing Proportional Representation Electoral Systems: Quotas, Thresholds, Paradoxes and Majorities]"
  24. "Eleição da Assembleia da República de 1 de Outubro de 1995". CNE - Comissão Nacional de Eleições - Eleição da Assembleia da República de 1 de Outubro de 1995.
  25. "Deputado Freitas do Amaral".
  26. [https://arquivos.rtp.pt/colecoes/diogo-freitas-do-amaral/ "Diogo Freitas do Amaral"], ''RTP Arquivo'', Retrieved 12 February 2025.
  27. "ELEIÇÕES LEGISLATIVAS DE 1995 – PSD". EPHEMERA.
  28. "ELEIÇÕES LEGISLATIVAS DE 1995 – PS". EPHEMERA.
  29. "PCP – 1995". EPHEMERA.
  30. "ELEIÇÕES LEGISLATIVAS DE 1995 – CDS-PP". EPHEMERA.
  31. (4 September 2009). "O que mudam os debates na TV". Correio da Manhã.
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