1998 Philippine presidential election

Background

At the tail-end of the presidency of Fidel V. Ramos, several politicians began jockeying for the nomination of his Lakas–NUCD–UMDP party. This included House Speaker Jose de Venecia Jr., National Defense Secretary Renato de Villa, and Cebu Governor Lito Osmeña.

The Lakas nominee was widely expected to face Vice President Joseph Estrada, who had been the leading candidate in various opinion polls. Estrada had earlier declared in 1992 that he would not run for president, stating his intention to retire upon reaching the age of 60 in 1998, but he later recanted this decision.

Senator Miriam Defensor Santiago, who believed she had been cheated out of the presidency by Ramos in 1992, was also expected to run again.

Former First Lady Imelda Marcos was likewise seen as a potential presidential contender. She banked on the support of loyalists of her husband, deposed president Ferdinand Marcos.

Senator Leticia Ramos-Shahani initially launched her presidential campaign on July 6, 1997, in Pasig City with Lito Osmeña as her running mate. However, she eventually decided to withdraw from the race and instead run for governor of Pangasinan.

Senator Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, who had topped the 1995 Senate election, was also considered a strong presidential contender, founding Kabalikat ng Malayang Pilipino with Tito Sotto, who himself topped the 1992 Senate election, widely seen as her likely running mate.

Senator Raul Roco, who had built a noteworthy Senate career by this point, gained strong backing from the youth through his own party, Aksyon Demokratiko.

The Lakas convention ultimately nominated de Venecia, Ramos' handpicked successor, for president. This led de Villa and Osmeña to bolt from Lakas and set up their own parties. De Venecia picked Arroyo as his vice presidential running mate.

The Liberal Party nominated Manila Mayor Alfredo Lim for president. Meanwhile, the Laban ng Demokratikong Pilipino, Nationalist People's Coalition and Estrada's own Partido ng Masang Pilipino (the forerunner of the Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino) established an electoral alliance known as Laban ng Makabayang Masang Pilipino. Estrada chose Senator Edgardo Angara of LDP as his running mate.

Weeks before election day, Marcos withdrew from the race. Estrada had widened his lead over the other candidates by this point.

Candidates

Lakas nomination

There were four candidates who sought the nomination of Lakas–NUCD: Jose de Venecia, Renato de Villa, Lito Osmeña, and Bulacan Governor Roberto Pagdanganan. De Villa was confident he would be selected by the party, as he, like President Ramos, was a former constabulary general. However, during the official Lakas party meeting, the presidential nomination was awarded to de Venecia. Following this, de Villa bolted from the party and formed Partido para sa Demokratikong Reporma, while Osmeña established Probinsya Muna Development Initiative.

Opinion polling

Opinion polling, commonly known as "surveys" in the Philippines were administered primarily by Social Weather Stations in 1998.

The tables below graph the last three surveys conducted.

For president

For vice president

Results

Main article: Congressional canvass for the 1998 Philippine presidential election

The 10th Congress canvassed the votes in joint session for a number of days before declaring Estrada and Arroyo as the winners; with Senate President Neptali Gonzales and Speaker De Venecia announcing the victors.

While the official canvassing did not start a fortnight after Election Day, the National Movement for Free Elections (NAMFREL) held a parallel and unofficial quick count which was released days after the election and was updated at irregular intervals. NAMFREL based their tally from the seventh copy of the election returns given to them.

In theory, the totals for the official canvassing (derived from the certificates of canvass, which are then derived from the election returns) and the completed NAMFREL quick count should be equal.

For president

Estrada carried the majority of the provinces, his hometown of San Juan City, and Metro Manila.

De Venecia carried his home province of Pangasinan as well as Baguio, Roco carried his home province of Camarines Sur and the rest of the Bicol Region (excluding Masbate), and Osmeña got his foothold over his home province of Cebu and other provinces in the South. Whilst De Villa Only Won His home Province Of Batangas and Siquijor.

Other candidates also carried their home provinces such as Enrile of Cagayan, and Defensor Santiago of Iloilo Province, as well as the neighboring province of Guimaras. Lim was the only major candidate who did not carry any provinces (with the exception of Batanes) and failed to capture his hometown of Manila.

NAMFREL quick count

Take note that Manuel Morato had a higher number of votes in the NAMFREL quick count than in the official congressional canvass.

Voter demographics

Source: Exit polls conducted by Social Weather Stations on May 12, 100% total (margin of error: 1.3%)

For vice-president

Arroyo also carried most of the provinces including her home province of Pampanga. Other candidates also carried their home provinces such as Angara of Aurora, and Quezon being mother province, Orbos of Pangasinan, Tatad of Catanduanes and Sueno of South Cotabato.

Only Osmeña of Cebu failed to capture the votes of their home provinces.

NAMFREL quick count

Take note that Reynaldo Pacheco had a higher number of votes in the NAMFREL quick count than the official congressional canvass.

Voter demographics

Source: Exit polls conducted by Social Weather Stations on May 12, 100% total (margin of error: 1.4%)

Notes

References

References

1. Maragay, Fel V.. (August 25, 1992). "Would'ya believe: Erap's not running in '98". Kamahalan Publishing Corp..
2. Macaspac, Joem N.. (July 6, 1997). "Letty launches presidential candidacy today". Kamahalan Publishing Corp..
3. Maragay, Fel V.. (July 7, 1997). "Shahani declares bid for presidency". Kamahalan Publishing Corp..
4. Azarcon-dela Cruz, Pennie. (March 26, 2017). "Leticia Ramos-Shahani: The accidental politician". INQUIRER.net.
5. Diaz, Jess. (June 12, 2001). "Roco, De Villa back JDV opponents".
6. (1998-03-23). "ERAP LEADS LIM AND JDV BY 28-14; GLORIA HITS 47".
7. (1998-03-05). "ERAP'S LEAD UNCHANGED; GLORIA'S LEAD WIDENS".
8. "Report on the Philippine General Elections 1998". NAMFREL.com.ph.
9. "COMPARING SWS EXIT POLL RESULTS WITH NAMFREL COUNT BY REGION".
10. "VICE-PRESIDENTIAL VOTES FOR THE MAY 11, 1998 ELECTIONS: SWS Day-of-Election 'Exit Poll'".
11. (1998-04-22). "ERAP'S LEAD STRENGTHENS AS LIM, OSMEÃ'A, JDV TIE FOR 2ND".