1995 Aragonese regional election

Background

The 1991 election had seen the Aragonese Party (PAR) retaining power through a coalition agreement with the People's Party (PP), with Emilio Eiroa succeeding Hipólito Gómez de las Roces as regional president over the latter's refusal to let the PP into government. The Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE), which remained in opposition for a second time despite emerging as the largest party overall, was thrown into an internal crisis that saw provincial deputation of Zaragoza, José Marco, being elected as new leader in March 1992.

During his first year in office, Eiroa oversaw the launching of a regional radio and television network, the Aragonese Radio and Television Corporation (CARTV), which was criticized by opposition parties as "deficient" and "low quality". Eiroa was also forced to deal with the growing divergences between the two governing partners, the PAR and the PP, which saw the latter lose several party members (the most notable being deputy Emilio Gomáriz, whose defection left Eiroa's government in minority status in the regional parliament). A political crisis erupted over an attempt by the PP to secure greater prominence in the government following the 1993 Spanish general election, which prompted the PSOE to table a motion of no confidence in September 1993. The vote succeeded thanks to Gomáriz crossing the floor in support of the motion, leading to accusations of vote buying from both the PAR and PP (in what came to be known as the Gomarcazo), and in PSOE's José Marco becoming new Aragonese president.

Marco's tenure was initially dominated by his opposition to a Spanish government proposal to regulate water transfers from the Ebro River to other regions (the National Hydrological Plan), but this was quickly overshadowed by a number of scandals. Shortly after taking office, he became embroiled in an embezzlement scandal over the purchase of an armchair for his home, for which he would be tried and convicted in 1995. In September 1994, he was accused of having concealed the purchase of four properties in his asset declarations; two months later, he became involved in a political espionage scandal against rivals within his own party. Further scandals included an alleged forgery of public documents, as well as an unlawful awarding of government contracts to relatives. An internal crisis ensued in which Marco clashed with other party sectors over his continuity at the helm of the Aragonese government, with the PSOE's national leadership ultimately disowning him despite his attempt to hold on until the next regional election. Marco barely survived a vote of no confidence tabled against him by the opposition PAR in December 1994, but mounting pressure led to a cabinet crisis in January 1995, and to his own resignation as regional premier in the ensuing days.

Regional culture minister Ángela Abós was proposed to succeed Marco as president, but United Left (IU)'s decision to block any investiture from a PSOE candidate resulted in a political gridlock in February 1995. With various proposals to form technocratic or unity governments failing to materialize, the regional presidency minister, Ramón Tejedor, was forced to serve in an acting capacity until the next election. Concurrently, the national PSOE leadership moved to strip Marco of his authority as regional party leader, sidelining him from the process of nominating his successor, and ultimately taking over the party's branch in Aragon.

Overview

Under the 1982 Statute of Autonomy, the Cortes of Aragon were the unicameral legislature of the homonymous autonomous community, having legislative power in devolved matters, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.

Electoral system

Voting for the Cortes was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Aragon and in full enjoyment of their political rights, provided that they were not sentenced—by a final court ruling—to deprivation of the right to vote, nor being legally incapacitated.

The Cortes of Aragon were entitled to a minimum of 60 and a maximum of 75 seats, with the electoral law setting its size at 67. All members were elected in three multi-member constituencies—corresponding to the provinces of Huesca, Teruel and Zaragoza, with each being allocated an initial minimum of 13 seats and the remaining 28 being distributed in proportion to their populations (provided that the seat-to-population ratio in the most populated province did not exceed 2.75 times that of the least populated one)—using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional voting system, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes (which included blank ballots) being applied in each constituency. The use of the electoral method resulted in an effective threshold based on the district magnitude and the distribution of votes among candidacies.

As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Cortes constituency was entitled the following seats:

The law did not provide for by-elections to fill vacated seats; instead, any vacancies that occurred after the proclamation of candidates and into the legislative term were to be covered by the successive candidates in the list and, when required, by the designated substitutes.

Election date

The term of the Cortes of Aragon expired four years after the date of its previous ordinary election, with election day being fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The election decree was required to be issued no later than the fifty-fifth day prior to the scheduled election date and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of Aragon (BOA). The previous election was held on 26 May 1991, setting the date for election day on the fourth Sunday of May four years later, which was 28 May 1995.

Amendments earlier in 1995 granted the regional president the prerogative to dissolve the Cortes of Aragon and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process, no nationwide election was due and some time requirements were met: namely, that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or within the parliament's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year had elapsed since a previous dissolution. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Cortes were to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called. Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances would not alter the period to the next ordinary election, with elected deputies merely serving out what remained of their original four-year term.

The election to the Cortes of Aragon was officially called on 4 April 1995 with the publication of the corresponding decree in the BOA, setting election day for 28 May and scheduling for the chamber to reconvene on 26 June.

Outgoing parliament

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the time of the election call.

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, alliances and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form an alliance ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant electoral commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 34 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Cortes of Aragon.

;Color key:

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Victory preferences

The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Victory likelihood

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Preferred President

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Government of Aragon.

Results

Overall

Distribution by constituency

Aftermath

Government formation

The election outcome and the PSOE's unpopularity following Marco's tenure prompted the PAR to engage in negotiations with the PP as the largest party, ultimately leading to the formation of a new coalition government, this time with the PP as the leading party. By virtue of this alliance, the regional PP leader, Santiago Lanzuela, become the new president of the Government of Aragon, whereas the PAR's candidate and former regional president, Emilio Eiroa, became the new speaker of the Cortes of Aragon.

Notes

References

;Opinion poll sources

;Other

Bibliography

References

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