Siena College Research Institute

''The New York Times''/Siena

In July 2013, SRI and The New York Times began a polling partnership, with its first collaborative poll conducted for the 2013 New York City mayoral election.

In 2018, The New York Times/Siena partnership delivered the first real time Midterm Election polls. In its review of polling conducted during the 2022 midterm elections, FiveThirtyEight found that The New York Times/Siena partnered polls had the lowest statistical error of all pollsters it measured, tied with Suffolk University. It currently holds a 3-star rating from FiveThirtyEight, their highest possible rating for a pollster, based on measurements of error, bias, and transparency in methodology. As of 2024, FiveThirtyEight describes The New York Times/Siena Poll as the most accurate pollster in America.

The New York Times/Siena Poll contacts a random sample of respondents, with sampling frames drawn from a national voter file of registered voters from data company L2 and supplemented with voter file-matched cellular numbers from market research company Marketing Systems Group. It utilizes live interviewers calling both landlines and cellphones in a dual frame model. For recent polls conducted by The New York Times/Siena, over 90% of contacts are reached through cell phones and calls are aimed to last under 15 minutes. The poll aims to reach a representative sample of American voters and adjusts for participation bias via stratified sampling, utilizing demographic information from its voter file such as race, party affiliation, and regional location. The poll attempts more contacts with respondents from groups that are less likely to respond. As of 2024, overall response rates to The New York Times/Siena Poll calls are usually under 2%. A 2022 incentivized poll conducted by The New York Times as an experiment in partnership with Ipsos achieved a 30% response rate while finding similar results to the lower response rate Siena partnered polls. The New York Times/Siena Poll has also variously used a turnout model to prioritize calls to a "likely electorate", which is gauged based on trends detected in The New York Times/Siena polls, past election results, and demographic data. This model was utilized for sampling in the 2018 midterm election but not the 2016 presidential election.

Completed surveys are weighted for probability of selection by stratum. Demographic weights of likely voters are weighted primarily with modeled turnout estimates from the poll's overall voter file, with adjustments made based on 12 demographic variables. Weighting of registered voter results, instead of likely voters, is conducted directly through characteristics derived from the voter file, without using the turnout model. Demographic information on education is not available in the voter file, and is weighted separately with the American Community Survey and Current Population Survey from the United States Census Bureau. Poll questions are published verbatim in the reports of each poll.

When nearing election days, the poll emphasizes results among likely voters over registered voters overall, which is determined through a respondent's voting history and self-reported intention to vote.

References

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