Hurricane Michelle

Meteorological history

On October 16, 2001, a tropical wave moved westward off the coast of Africa and moved into the Atlantic Ocean. At the time, the wave produced minimal convective and thunderstorm activity. On October 23, the disturbance crossed the Lesser Antilles before moving into the Caribbean Sea while showing minimal signs of tropical development. Three days later, the wave moved into the western Caribbean, spawning a broad low-pressure area off the coast of Nicaragua. At 1800 UTC on October 29, a reconnaissance flight confirmed the development of a tropical depression 40 mi south-southwest of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua. At the time, convection was displaced primarily to the north of the center of circulation, and the storm was situated in a weak steering pattern; as such, initial forecasts predicted for the depression, designated as Tropical Depression Fifteen, to slowly move generally northward. Later that day, a burst of convection occurred over the circulation center of the depression, indicating an increase in organization. The disturbance meandered over eastern Nicaragua for 36 hours before emerging into the Caribbean Sea near Cabo Gracias a Dios by 2100 UTC on October 31. Upon emerging into the Caribbean Sea, the depression quickly organized, and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) upgraded the depression to tropical storm strength at 0000 UTC the following day, based on information from a reconnaissance flight prior. As such, the tropical storm was designated with the name Michelle.

Gradual strengthening occurred throughout November 1, as Michelle's cloud tops began to cool as it drifted northward, signifying strengthening. At the time, the NHC predicted that there was a roughly 12 percent chance for the tropical storm to rapidly intensify; by that time the storm had met three of the organization's five criterion for rapid intensification. During the day, fluctuations in convective activity occurred and there were some signs of wind shear affecting the cyclone, but there was a general strengthening trend. Two dropsondes deployed within the system early on November 2 observed hurricane-force winds within Michelle; based on this data the NHC upgraded Michelle to hurricane intensity at 1200 UTC that day, while the storm was situated 290 mi south-southeast of the Guanahacabibes Peninsula.

A period of rapid intensification began shortly after as Michelle's satellite presentation improved, with the cyclone's minimum barometric pressure falling 51 mbar in 29 hours. By 1200 UTC later that day, Michelle had intensified to a Category 4 hurricane. Six hours later, the hurricane weakened to Category 3 intensity, but reached its minimum barometric pressure of 934 mbar. Afterwards, Michelle's central pressure began to rise; despite the trend, its maximum sustained winds also strengthened as it curved northeastward. Despite having its convective organization disrupted and its eye no longer as apparent on November 4, Michelle attained winds of 140 mph by 0600 UTC that day; these would be the highest sustained winds estimated for the system throughout its existence.

At 1800 UTC on November 4, Michelle made landfall on Cayo Largo del Sur as a Category 4 hurricane with winds of 140 mph; this was followed shortly after with a landfall on the Bay of Pigs five hours later as a slightly weaker storm. When Michelle made landfall on the Cuban mainland, it was the strongest landfalling hurricane in Cuban history since the landfall of Hurricane Fox in 1952. At the time, the hurricane's minimum barometric pressure was 950 mbar. Over Cuba, Michelle's center of circulation was significantly disrupted, and as a result the hurricane decreased in intensity; That day, the weakening hurricane made landfalls over Andros Island and Eleuthera Island before becoming fully extratropical by 0000 UTC on November 6, while still maintaining hurricane-force winds. The extratropical system persisted for roughly 18 more hours before it was absorbed by an approaching cold front.

Preparations

Cuba

As Hurricane Michelle approached the Cuban coast, the government of Cuba issued a hurricane watch for the western Cuban provinces of Pinar del Río, La Habana, Matanzas, and Isla de la Juventud at 2100 UTC on November 1. The following day, the same hurricane watch was extended eastward to include all provinces from Pinar del Río to Ciego de Ávila; all hurricane watches in Cuba were upgraded to hurricane warnings at 1100 UTC on November 3. All warnings in Cuba were discontinued once Michelle began to accelerate out to sea at 1200 UTC on November 5.

Prior to reaching the coast, Michelle was expected to be the strongest Cuban tropical cyclone in at least 75 years. The Cuban Red Cross deployed 24,500 volunteers across Cuba to assist civil defense teams in evacuation procedures for potentially affected populations. By November 4, an estimated 590,000 people were evacuated across the country, including 80 percent of the population of the province of Pinar del Río. In Havana, authorities evacuated 150,000 people. Coastal tourist resorts were cleared, and 35,500 students were evacuated out of camps hosted on the Zapata Peninsula. On Cuba's southwestern islands including Cayo Largo and Isla de la Juventud, 500 tourists were evacuated. The entire population of Surgidero de Batabanó was evacuated. In addition to the evacuations, the government sent food, water, and medicine supplies to areas south of the capital. All domestic and international flights to and from the country were cancelled.

Elsewhere

At 17:00 UTC on November 1, a tropical storm watch was issued for Grand Cayman Island. Three hours prior, the National Hurricane Center issued a tropical storm warning in conjunction with a hurricane watch for areas of the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef, Florida to the Dry Tortugas. At 03:00 UTC on November 4, a hurricane watch was issued for areas of the northwestern and central Bahamas. At the same time, a new tropical storm warning was issued for the east coast of Florida between Jupiter Inlet and Ocean Reef, and for the state's western coast south of Bonita Beach. At 06:00 UTC, the tropical storm watch for Grand Cayman was upgraded and extended to include the entirety of the Cayman Islands. Six hours later, the hurricane watch for the Florida Keys was upgraded to warning status. Early the next day, a hurricane watch was issued for Bermuda after Michelle made its final Cuban landfall. Meanwhile, the tropical storm warning issued for the Cayman Islands was discontinued. As Michelle accelerated away from landmasses, warnings and watches were discontinued. All tropical cyclone warnings in the United States were discontinued by 21:00 UTC that day. At the same time, however, the hurricane watch for Bermuda was changed to a tropical storm warning; this warning was sustained for a day before being discontinued, shortly after all warnings in the Bahamas were also discontinued.

Impact

Hurricane Michelle brought torrential rains along its path through the western Caribbean Sea, killing 22 people and causing extensive damage in Central America and Cuba.

Central America

In its early developmental stages as a tropical depression, Michelle drifted over areas of Central America for roughly 36 hours, dropping torrential rainfall and causing widespread flooding in areas affected by Hurricane Mitch almost exactly three years prior. The hardest hit region was Gracias a Dios Department in northeastern Honduras, where at one point 100 villages were isolated by the floods. The torrential rainfall caused the displacement of at least 100,000 people from their residences.

In Honduras, the floods damaged 245 homes, resulting in the displacement of 4,393 people across the country. Six bridges sustained at least partial damage, of which three were destroyed. As a result of the damage, the government of Honduras declared a state of emergency for five departments – Colón, Atlántida, Yoro, Cortés, and Santa Bárbara. The floods caused by Michelle were further exacerbated by a cold front which lingered over the region, dropping additional rainfall. Near Yoro, a bridge crossing the Cuyamapa River collapsed due to the floodwaters. Despite the heavy rainfall, areas of Honduras suffering from a prolonged drought did not receive beneficial rainfall. Overall, the floods in Honduras killed 21 people and caused $5 million in damage. Thirty-five of the country's water systems were destroyed. The rains also caused the loss of 70 percent of bean crops.

Although the precursor to Michelle remained stationary primarily over Nicaragua, damage was not as significant as in Honduras due to the storm's displacement of convection to the north. As a result of Michelle, a total of 16 deaths were confirmed, and damage in the country was estimated at $1 million. Overall, damage in Costa Rica totaled $1 million, though no deaths were reported.

Jamaica

As the precursor tropical wave to Michelle drifted through the western Caribbean Sea, it produced torrential rainfall on the island of Jamaica, causing widespread flooding. in the same parish, six homes were swept away from their foundations. In the parishes of Saint Catherine, Saint Andrew, and Saint Ann, several roads were blocked by debris. The Jamaican National Works Agency (NWA) worked to clear the road debris.

After tropical cyclogenesis, Michelle passed to the northwest of Jamaica, producing additional rainfall. In a 48-hour period beginning on October 29, a location measured 41.65 in, denoting an average rainfall rate of 0.86 in per hour. Many other locations reported high rainfall totals over a ten-day period throughout Michelle's passage near Jamaica. Coffee crops were severely affected in Portland and Saint Andrew Parishes, with losses calculated at J$102.6 million (US$2.2 million). Roughly 400 acre of banana plantations were damaged over four parishes, amounting to J$18.2 million (US$400,000) in damage. The plantain crop, mostly grown for domestic usage, suffered extensive damage valued at J$22 million (US$480,000). Losses sustained to livestock were estimated at J$30.8 million (US$670,000).

Overall, floods caused widespread damage throughout Jamaica. The watersheds of the Spanish and Swift Rivers were the worst affected areas. Near the coast, the rivers began to overflow due to excess floodwater, eroding beach roads and three major highways. In Portland Parish, the rains caused numerous landslides. In the community of Bybrook alone, it was estimated that roughly 7,000,000 ft3 of material was deposited in the village. An assessment of the damage concluded that 500 homes were destroyed beyond repair, while an additional 561 homes were at least damaged by the floods and heavy rain. While one school was damaged solely by the floods, six other schools were damaged due to their use as shelters. Damage on Jamaica due to Michelle totaled $18 million,

Cayman Islands

In early November, Hurricane Michelle brought heavy surf, storm surge, and flooding to the Cayman Islands. Of the islands in the archipelago, Grand Cayman experienced the worst effects from Michelle, particularly along the island's west coast. Rainfall peaked at 6.52 in in Grand Cayman; the same station recorded a peak wind gust of 44 mph. Another weather station in Cayman Brac observed a peak wind gust of 40 mph. Overall, damage from the Cayman Islands totaled $60 million.

Cuba

In Cuba, about 750,000 people and 741,000 animals were evacuated prior to the hurricane's arrival. Hurricane Michelle quickly crossed the island as a Category 4 hurricane, the strongest since 1952's Hurricane Fox. To the south of Cuba, Cayo Largo del Sur received a 9–10 foot storm surge, inundating the entire island with water. Closer to Cuba, the Isle of Youth experienced 11.83 in of rain with 15 ft waves, causing extensive power outages and flooding.

On the coast of western and southern Cuba, Michelle produced 4–5 foot waves, along with a heavy storm surge. Rainfall amounts up to 754 mm/29.69 inches were recorded across the island. In addition, 300 mm/11.83 inches was reported at Punta del Este. The provinces of Matanzas, Villa Clara, and Cienfuegos were hardest hit, where 10,000 homes were destroyed and another 100,000 damaged. Severe damage was also reported to the sugar cane The Category 4 hurricane caused US$1.8 billion in damage.

The United States offered aid to the island, an act it had done in the past despite a political embargo. President Fidel Castro refused, believing his country would survive with enough resources for the reconstruction process.

Florida

Severe beach erosion due to increased swells over several days took place from Hollywood Beach to Hallandale Beach. At high tide on November 4, water topped the seawall, damaging it and nearby structures leaving $20,000 in damages. The cost to restore the beaches was estimated at $10 million. The highest winds in relation to the storm were recorded in Sombrero Key; sustained winds reached 49 mph and gusts reached 60 mph. A storm surge of 1 to was recorded along the southeast coastline of Florida. Damages from the hurricane amounted to $50,000.

Two tornadoes touched down in the state within the outer bands of the hurricane. The first formed as a waterspout and moved onshore near Bill Baggs Beach and destroyed two Chikee huts, costing $6,000, warranting F0 intensity, before dissipating. The second and stronger of the two tornadoes, rated F1, tracked for 2 mi in Palm Beach County. Windows were blown out of vehicles and buildings, trees and signs were downed and a small area of sugar cane was leveled by the tornado. Damages from the tornado amounted to $10,000. A NOAA WP-3D Orion hurricane hunter aircraft was damaged during a mission into the storm.

Bahamas

Because Hurricane Michelle was weakened and moving rapidly as it moved through the Bahamas, no deaths or injuries were reported. The hurricane still retained some of its strength, and caused 12.64 in of rain in Nassau, while New Providence received a storm surge of 5–8 feet. The radio tower of the station MORE FM was snapped in half by high winds, resulting in a severe disruption of radio broadcasts.

Aftermath

Ships carrying tons of frozen chicken legs and corn arrived in Havana's harbor on December 16, to aid in the recovery of Cuba from Hurricane Michelle. The shipments are part of a one-time $30 million purchase of U.S. food by the Cuban government to assist in the country's present food shortage.

The Cuban government refused an initial U.S. offer of humanitarian assistance, but accepted a proposal to purchase the goods instead. Although the United States has maintained an economic embargo on Cuba for decades, U.S. law does allow shipments of food and medicine to the communist-controlled island. But until now the Cuban government has refused to buy American food because of the restrictions, including a ban on direct U.S. financing of food sales.

Other aid from the international community is helping Cuba survive Michelle's aftermath. Cuba was promised $600,000 in aid from Chinese leader Li Peng, who was visiting when the hurricane struck. Venezuela also sent humanitarian assistance.

Retirement

Because of the significant damage and number of deaths in multiple countries, the name Michelle was retired in the spring of 2002 by the World Meteorological Organization, and will never again be used for a North Atlantic tropical cyclone. The name was replaced with Melissa for the 2007 season.

Notes

References

References

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