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Exchange-rate pass-through
Exchange-rate pass-through (ERPT) is a measure of how responsive international prices are to changes in exchange rates.
Formally, exchange-rate pass-through is the elasticity of local-currency import prices with respect to the local-currency price of foreign currency. It is often measured as the percentage change, in the local currency, of import prices resulting from a one percent change in the exchange rate between the exporting and importing countries. A change in import prices affects retail and consumer prices. When exchange-rate pass-through is greater, there is more transmission of inflation between countries. Exchange-rate pass-through is also related to the law of one price and purchasing power parity.
Example
Suppose that the US imports widgets from the UK. The widgets cost $10 and £1 costs $1. Then the British Pound appreciates against the dollar and now £1 costs $1.50. Also suppose that the widgets now cost $12.5
There has been a 50% change in the exchange rate and a 25% change in price. The exchange rate pass-through is :\frac{25%}{50%}=.5. For every 1% increase in the exchange rate, there has been a .5% increase in the price of the widgets.
Measurement
The "standard pass-through regression" is :\Delta \ln p_{t} = \alpha+\sum_{i=0}^N\gamma_i \Delta \ln e_{t-i}+\delta \Delta \ln c_t+ \psi\Delta \ln d_t +\epsilon_t, where p is import price, e is the exchange rate, c is marginal costs, d is demand, and \Delta denotes a first difference. The exchange-rate pass-through after N periods is :\sum_{i=0}^N\gamma_i.
Campa and Goldberg (2005) estimated the long-run exchange-rate pass-through to import prices for the following countries, averaging across the countries from which imports came:
| Country | Long-Run Exchange-Rate Pass-Through |
|---|---|
| Australia | 0.69 |
| Canada | 0.68 |
| Switzerland | 0.94 |
| Czech Republic | 0.61 |
| Germany | 0.79 |
| Denmark | 0.68 |
| Spain | 0.56 |
| Finland | 0.82 |
| France | 1.21 |
| United Kingdom | 0.47 |
| Hungary | 0.85 |
| Ireland | 1.37 |
| Iceland | 0.76 |
| Italy | 0.62 |
| Japan | 1.26 |
| Netherlands | 0.77 |
| Norway | 0.79 |
| New Zealand | 0.62 |
| Poland | 0.99 |
| Portugal | 0.88 |
| Sweden | 0.59 |
| USA | 0.41 |
Measurement of exchange-rate pass-through is typically performed using aggregate price indexes. and how globalization caused a decrease in exchange-rate pass-through.
References
References
- (1997). "Goods prices and exchange rates: What have we learned?". Journal of Economic Literature.
- (2005). "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices". Review of Economics and Statistics.
- (2008). "Sticky Borders". Quarterly Journal of Economics.
- (2012). "How do Different Exporters React to Exchange Rate Changes?". Quarterly Journal of Economics.
- (2014). "The Effect of Firm-Level Productivity on Exchange Rate Pass-Through". Economics Letters.
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