Anti-incumbency

Causes

When voters perceive times as bad, this can cause anti-incumbent sentiment. However, this is subject to biases. Perceptions of whether, e.g., economic conditions have worsened during a politician's term are influenced by partisan bias, for instance. In the United States, reliance on partisan media, as opposed to mainstream media, is associated with anti-incumbent attitudes toward Congress. New democracies' elections, such as those in Central and Eastern Europe, and in Latin America and Asia, often are characterized by anti-incumbency.

History

In 2024, almost every incumbent party worldwide facing election in 2024 lost power, as was the case in the United Kingdom, United States, Ghana, Senegal, and Botswana; or faced a loss in vote share, as was the case in South Africa, India, France, and Japan. Among democracies, over 80 percent saw the incumbent party lose support compared to the last election. This is the first time this has ever happened since 1905 (when data was first recorded) and the first time in the history of democracy, as universal suffrage began in 1894.

Bulgaria

In Bulgaria, virtually every government has been ousted from power after one legislative period.

Bhutan

The 2018 Bhutanese National Assembly election had an anti-incumbent result.

India

India has the highest rate of anti-incumbency in the world, with incumbents from the ruling party having only a fifty-fifty shot at returning to parliament. For example, since 1985, the electorate in Assam has oscillated between voting the Asom Gana Parishad and the Indian National Congress to power. In Karnataka, the last time the ruling government was re-elected was in the 1985 Indian elections. Kerala has always voted in whichever is the opposition pre-poll alliance from the 1982 assembly elections until the 2021 election. Voter turnout does not appear correlated with incumbents' electoral performance.

In 2018, India's period of anti-incumbency was accompanied by acute rural distress, multiple farmer agitations and serious joblessness.

Mexico

In the 2010 Mexican gubernatorial elections, incumbents from the Institutional Revolutionary Party, National Action Party, and Party of the Democratic Revolution were rejected.

United States

The 1992 United States elections were also characterized by anti-incumbent sentiment, as a stubborn recession and persistently high unemployment fuelled voter dissatisfaction. A 2013 poll found that 60% of Americans would vote to "defeat and replace every single member of Congress, including [their] own representative" if that option were available.

The 2024 United States presidential election also fueled considerable anti-incumbent sentiment, particularly among Generation Z, primarily due to immigration policy, post-COVID inflation, the Gaza war, and age and health concerns regarding the incumbent president Joe Biden.

The concept of anti-incumbency, at least with regard to U.S. elections, is controversial, since more often voters will punish only one party. Three organizations that supported voting out incumbents were Throw the Hypocritical Rascals Out, Vote Out Incumbents Democracy and Tenure Corrupts.

Criticism

A perceived disadvantage of anti-incumbency, with regard to judicial elections, is that good lawyers will not want to accept what they regard as a revolving-door judgeship. Another criticism of anti-incumbency is that it causes political parties to focus on single-term policies rather than long-term development.

References

References

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