Aging of Russia

History

In the economic sphere

The demographic crisis has a positive economic effect on the second stage of the changing age structure of the population (the fraction of the average working-age generation is maximal at a relatively small proportion of younger and older) and a negative economic effect on the third stage of the changing age structure of the population (when the proportion of the older generation is maximal at a relatively small share younger and middle generation). By 2025, Russia will have labor shortages.

With a reduced fertility rate, the load on the working population increases because each worker has to support more retirees.

Demographic aging of the population

Prior to First World War, the Russian Empire had the fastest growing population among world powers, only surpassed by the United States. Despite demographic losses in the interwar period from the First World War, the Civil War, and the numerous famines, between 1920 and 1940, the RSFSR of the Soviet Union grew at an average of 1.11% per year and managed to surpass 100 million people.

In the Second World War, the Eastern Front was one of the most costly theaters of the war, accounting up to 40 million of the 70–85 million deaths attributed to World War II. The Soviet Union in particular had exceptionally heavily demographic damage, Russia alone losing as much as 13 million people. Because young men bore the brunt of war losses, the war left Russia with a huge lack of men compared to women. Even in 1959, men still made up less than 45% of the overall population.

After the 1960s, despite a small baby boom after the war, Russia had begin to experience demographic ageing; the proportion of those 60 and older doubled between 1959 and 1990. However despite population aging, the population of Russia remained relatively young and had many women of childbearing age, which would compensate for fertility decline and thus continue population growth; the Russian population increased by 45,760,000 people from 1951 to 1990.

However, starting in the early 1990s, the age structure of the population had eventually morphed in a way that would start prompting eventual population decline not growth, and the fertility crash following the dissolution of the Soviet Union only further enforced this. The low fertility rate in the 1990s was combined with a high mortality rate and declining life expectancy; relative to 1990 mortality, there were millions of excess deaths. This was not unique to Russia, and such issues have been felt in many developed countries and increasingly in many developing countries as well.[[File:Deserted village at Sukhona River.jpg|thumb|Thousands of [[abandoned village]]s are scattered across Russia.]] Currently, the share of people aged 65 and older in the population of Russia is 13%. According to forecasts of the Russian Academy of Sciences from the early 2000s, in 2016 elderly people aged 60 and over would have accounted for 20% of Russians, and children up to 15 years old would only have made up 17%. However, in Russia, in contrast to other countries, aging is limited by high mortality among older people.

Population trends 2015–present

In 2020, over 500,000 deaths were attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic, bringing the total deaths since its onset to approximately 700,000. Although 2021 was initially projected to have less impact on mortality, death rates still surpassed birth rates. President Vladimir Putin's plan to overturn the stagnation was announced in 2017 in response to the downward trend. However the plan only partially helped in their demographic crisis and was hindered by the Pandemic, despite showing signs of recovery.

|1897 | 67473000 |1926 | 93459000 |1939 | 108377000 |1959 | 117534000 |1970 | 130079000 |1979 | 137552000 |1989 | 147386000 |2002 | 145166731 |2010 | 142856836 |2015 | 144985057 |2019 | 146764655 |2020 | 146171015 |2021 | 146000460

The natural population declined by 997,000 between October 2020 and September 2021 (the difference between the number of births and the number of deaths over a period). The natural death rate in January 2020, 2021, and 2022 have each been nearly double the natural birth rate.

Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the demographic crisis in the country has deepened, as the country has reportedly suffered high military fatalities while facing renewed brain drain and human capital flight caused by Western mass-sanctions and boycotts. Many commentators predict that the situation will be worse than during the 1990s.

In March 2023, The Economist reported that "Over the past three years the country has lost around 2 million more people than it would ordinarily have done, as a result of war [in Ukraine], disease and exodus."

According to Russian economist Alexander Isakov, "Russia's population has been declining and the war will reduce it further. Reasons? Emigration, lower fertility and war-related casualties." Russian journalist Andrey Kolesnikov noted that "We are seeing a phenomenon Russia has faced many times: wave after wave of wars and repression that drain away human resources."

The UN is projecting that the decline that started in 2021 will continue, and if current demographic conditions persist, Russia's population would be 120 million in fifty years, a decline of about 17%.

In January 2024, the Russian statistics agency Rosstat predicted that Russia's population could drop to 130 million by 2046, in a worst-case scenario. The UN's 2024 scenarios project Russia's population to be between 74 million and 112 million in 2100, a decline of 25 to 50%.

Reactions

Many Russian politicians have called for the reinstating of the childless tax in Russia that it used to have from the 1940s until the 1990s, due to declining birth rates.

In August 2022, Russia revived the Soviet-era Mother Heroine award for women with ten children.

In November 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a bill into law that bans 'Childfree Propaganda' to boost birthrates in Russia. On the same year, in a decree for national development goals, Putin set a life expectancy target of 81 years by 2036, an update from an earlier goal of 78 years by 2030.

References

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