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(29075) 1950 DA

Most hazardous risk–listed near-Earth asteroid


Most hazardous risk–listed near-Earth asteroid

FieldValue
minorplanetyes
name(29075) 1950 DA
background#FFC2E0
image1950 DA.png
captionRadar image of taken at Arecibo in March 2001, from a distance of 22 LD or 0.052 AU
discovery_ref
discovererCarl A. Wirtanen
discovery_siteLick Obs.
discovered23 February 1950
mpc_name(29075) 1950 DA
alt_names1950 DAObject Wirtanen
named_after
mp_categoryNEOApolloPHArisk listed
orbit_ref
epoch17 October 2024 (JD 2460600.5)
uncertainty0
observation_arc74.87 yr (27,345 d)
aphelion2.5614 AU
perihelion0.8364 AU
semimajor1.6989 AU
eccentricity0.5077
period2.214 yr (809 d)
mean_anomaly223.31°
mean_motion/ day
inclination12.16°
asc_node356.59°
arg_peri224.76°
moid0.03853 AU (14.9948 LD)
p_orbit_ref
node_rate−35.824
perihelion_rate13.655
dimensions
mean_diameter{{Ubl
{{val1.3ulkm}}
{{val1.1ulkm}}
{{val1.250.12ukm}}
{{val2.000.20ukm}}
mass
density
rotation
albedo{{Ubl
<ref name"Mainzer-2016" /
<ref name"Rivkin-2005a" /
spectral_type{{Ubl
S<ref name"Dandy-2003" /
B–V {{}}
V–R {{}}
V–I {{}}
abs_magnitude{{Ubl
16.83<ref name"Busch-2007b" /
17.00<ref name"Mainzer-2016" /
17.28<ref name"MPC-object" /
17.2<ref nameNeodys/
17.1<ref name"lcdb" /

| | | S | B–V
| V–R
| V–I
| 16.83 | 17.00 | 17.28 | 17.2 | 17.1 **** (provisional designation ****) is a risk-listed asteroid, classified as a near-Earth object and potentially hazardous asteroid of the Apollo group, approximately 1.3 km in diameter. It once had the highest known probability of impacting Earth. In 2002, it had the highest Palermo scale rating with a value of 0.17 and a probability of 1 in 306 (0.33%) for a possible collision in 2880. Since that time, the estimated risk has been updated several times. In December 2015, the odds of an Earth impact were revised to 1 in 8,300 (0.012%) with a Palermo scale rating of −1.42. , it is listed on the Sentry Risk Table with the highest cumulative Palermo scale rating of −0.93. is not assigned a Torino scale rating, because the 2880 date is over 100 years in the future. As of 11 September 2025, the odds of an Earth impact are 1 in 2,600 (0.038%).

Discovery and nomenclature

was first discovered on 23 February 1950 by Carl A. Wirtanen at Lick Observatory. Just two hours later it was recognized as .

Observations

On 5 March 2001, made a close approach to Earth at a distance of 0.05207 AU. It was studied by radar at the Goldstone and Arecibo observatories from March 3 to 7, 2001.

The studies showed that the asteroid has a mean diameter of 1.1 km, assuming that is a retrograde rotator. Optical lightcurve analysis by Lenka Šarounová and Petr Pravec shows that its rotation period is hours. Due to its short rotation period and high radar albedo, is thought to be fairly dense (more than 3.5 g/cm3, assuming that it has no internal strength) and likely composed of nickel–iron. In August 2014, scientists from the University of Tennessee determined that ** is a rubble pile rotating faster than the breakup limit for its density, implying the asteroid is held together by van der Waals forces rather than gravity.

made distant approaches to Earth on 20 May 2012, 5 February 2021 and 5 February 2023. However, at these times it was a quarter to half an AU away from Earth, preventing more useful astrometrics and timing that occurs when an object is closer to Earth. The next close approach that presents a good opportunity to observe the asteroid will be on 2 March 2032, when it will be 0.076 AU from Earth. The following table lists the approaches closer than 0.1 AU until the year 2500. By 2136 the close approach solutions are becoming notably more divergent.

DateJPL SBDB
nominal geocentric
distance (AU)uncertainty
region
([1-sigma](68-95-99-7-rule))
2 March 20320.075752 AU±10 km
19 March 20740.095459 AU±30 km
10 March 21050.036316 AU±43 km
11 March 21360.042596 AU±387 km
8 March 21870.035224 AU±1717 km
20 March 22180.084849 AU±8712 km
18 March 23730.058991 AU±2508 km
6 March 24550.087706 AU±1650 km
DateJPL SolutionImpact probability
5 April 20021/306
7 December 20151/8300
29 March 20221/34000
18 June 20241/2600
23 January 2025JPL2761/2600

Possible Earth impact

has one of the best-determined asteroid orbital solutions. This is due to a combination of:

  • an orbit moderately inclined (12 degrees) to the ecliptic plane (reducing in-plane perturbations);
  • high-precision radar astrometry, which provides its distance and is complementary to the measurements of angular positions;
  • a 74-year observation arc;
  • an uncertainty region controlled by resonance.

Main-belt asteroid 78 Diana (~125 km in diameter) will pass about 0.003 AU from on 5 August 2150. At that distance and size, Diana will perturb enough so that the change in trajectory is notable by 2880 (730 years later). In addition, over the intervening time, 's rotation will cause its orbit to slightly change as a result of the Yarkovsky effect. If continues on its present orbit, it may approach Earth on 16 March 2880, though the mean trajectory passes many millions of kilometres from Earth, so does not have a significant chance of impacting Earth. , according to the latest solution dated 11 September 2025, the probability of an impact in 2880 is 1 in 2,600 (0.038%).

The energy released by a collision with an object the size of would cause major effects on the climate and biosphere, which would be devastating to human civilization. The discovery of the potential impact heightened interest in asteroid deflection strategies.

Notes

References

|access-date = 18 June 2024}}

|access-date = 24 February 2024}}

|access-date=18 June 2024}}

|access-date=14 October 2011 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110721050545/http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/1950da/ |archive-date=21 July 2011 |url-status=dead}}

|access-date=24 February 2024}}

|access-date=24 February 2024}}

|access-date=18 June 2024}}

|access-date=18 June 2024}} (Use Unconstrained Settings)

|access-date=17 August 2015}}

|access-date = 24 February 2024}}

|display-authors = 6 |access-date = 24 February 2024}}

|display-authors = 6

|display-authors = 6 |access-date= 5 July 2018}}

|access-date = 10 February 2025}}

References

  1. (29 March 2022). "Impact threat analysis update completed for 1950 DA". European Space Agency.
  2. (4 January 2001). "MPEC 2001-A22 : 2000 YK66". Minor Planet Center.
  3. (4 January 2001). "MPEC 2001-A26 : 1950 DA = 2000 YK66". Minor Planet Center.
  4. "Close-approach results". JPL Horizons.
  5. (January 2015). "Star catalog position and proper motion corrections in asteroid astrometry". Icarus.
  6. "Sentry: Earth Impact Monitoring".
  7. (1 June 2024). "Asteroid Orbit Determination Using Gaia FPR: Statistical Analysis". The Astronomical Journal.
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