2017–18 South Pacific cyclone season

Seasonal forecasts

Ahead of the cyclone season, the Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS), Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), New Zealand's MetService and National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) and various other Pacific Meteorological services, all contributed towards the Island Climate Update tropical cyclone outlook that was released during October 2016. The outlook took into account the ENSO-neutral conditions that had been observed across the Pacific and analogue seasons that had ENSO-neutral and weak La Niña conditions occurring during the season. The outlook called for a near average number of tropical cyclones for the 2017–18 season, with eight to ten named tropical cyclones, to occur between 135°E and 120°W compared to an average of about 10. At least three of the tropical cyclones were expected to become Category 3 severe tropical cyclones, while two could become Category 4 severe tropical cyclones; they also noted that a Category 5 severe tropical cyclone was not likely to occur during the season.

In addition to contributing towards the Island Climate Update outlook, the FMS and the BoM issued their own seasonal forecasts for the South Pacific region. The BoM issued two seasonal forecasts for the Southern Pacific Ocean, for their self-defined eastern and western regions of the South Pacific Ocean. They predicted that the Western region between 142.5°E and 165°E, had a 48% chance of seeing activity above its average of 7 tropical cyclones. The BoM also predicted that the Eastern Region between 165°E and 120°W, had a 55% chance of seeing activity above its average of 4 tropical cyclones. Within their outlook the FMS predicted that between four and six tropical cyclones, would occur within the basin compared to an average of around 7.1 cyclones. At least one of the tropical cyclones was expected to intensify into a Category 3 or higher severe tropical cyclone. They also predicted that the main area for tropical cyclogenesis would be within the Coral Sea, to the west of the International Date Line.

Both the Island Climate Update and the FMS tropical cyclone outlooks assessed the risk of a tropical cyclone affecting a certain island or territory. The Island Climate Update Outlook predicted that New Caledonia, Tonga, New Zealand and Papua New Guinea had an above average chance of being impacted by a tropical cyclone or their remnants. They also predicted that the Solomon Islands, Fiji and Vanuatu had a near normal to normal risk of being impacted by one or more tropical cyclones. The Southern Cook Islands, American Samoa, Samoa, Niue, Tokelau, Tuvalu, as well as Wallis and Futuna were thought to have a below average chance of being impacted. It was also considered unlikely that the Northern Cook Islands, French Polynesia, Kiribati and the Pitcairn Islands would be affected by a tropical cyclone. The FMS's outlook predicted that Vanuatu, New Caledonia, Fiji as well as Wallis and Futuna had a normal chance of being impacted by a tropical cyclone. The outlook also predicted that the Solomon Islands, Tokelau, Samoa, Tonga, Niue, Cook Islands and French Polynesia had a reduced chance of being affected by a tropical cyclone. It was thought that there was a normal risk of Vanuatu, New Caledonia, Fiji and Samoa being impacted by at least one severe tropical cyclone, while other areas such as the Solomon Islands, Tokelau, Samoa, Tonga, Niue and French Polynesia, had a reduced chance of being impacted by a severe tropical cyclone.

Seasonal summary

ImageSize = width:800 height:210 PlotArea = top:10 bottom:80 right:20 left:20 Legend = columns:3 left:30 top:58 columnwidth:270

AlignBars = early DateFormat = dd/mm/yyyy Period = from:01/12/2017 till:01/05/2018 TimeAxis = orientation:horizontal ScaleMinor = grid:black unit:month increment:1 start:01/12/2017 Colors = id:canvas value:gray(0.88) id:GP value:red id:TDi value:rgb(0,0.52,0.84) legend:Tropical_Disturbance id:TD value:rgb(0.43,0.76,0.92) legend:Tropical_Depression id:C1 value:rgb(0.3,1,1) legend:Category_1_=63-87_km/h(39-54_mph) id:C2 value:rgb(0.75,1,0.75) legend:Category_2_=88-142_km/h(55-74_mph) id:C3 value:rgb(1,0.85,0.55) legend:Category_3_=143-158-km/h(75-98_mph) id:C4 value:rgb(1,0.45,0.54) legend:Category_4_=159–204_km/h(99–127_mph) id:C5 value:rgb(0.55,0.46,0.9) legend:Category_5_=≥205_km/h(≥128_mph)

Backgroundcolors = canvas:canvas

BarData = barset:Hurricane bar:Month

PlotData= barset:Hurricane width:11 align:left fontsize:S shift:(4,-4) anchor:till from:16/12/2017 till:18/12/2017 color:TDi text:"02F (TDi)" from:17/12/2017 till:19/12/2017 color:TDi text:"03F (TDi)" from:20/12/2017 till:26/12/2017 color:TD text:"04F (TD)" from:26/01/2018 till:27/01/2018 color:TDi text:"05F (TDi)" from:28/01/2018 till:30/01/2018 color:C1 text:"Fehi (C1)" from:03/02/2018 till:19/02/2018 color:C5 text:"Gita (C5)" from:03/02/2018 till:11/02/2018 color:TD text:"08F (TD)" barset:break from:03/03/2018 till:11/03/2018 color:C4 text:"Hola (C4)" from:11/03/2018 till:13/03/2018 color:TD text:"Linda (TD)" from:20/03/2018 till:24/03/2018 color:C1 text:"Iris (C1)" from:29/03/2018 till:02/04/2018 color:C1 text:"Josie (C1)" from:05/04/2018 till:11/04/2018 color:C3 text:"Keni (C3)" from:17/04/2018 till:20/04/2018 color:TD text:"14F (TD)" bar:Month width:5 align:center fontsize:S shift:(0,-20) anchor:middle color:canvas from:01/12/2017 till:01/01/2018 text:December from:01/01/2018 till:01/02/2018 text:January from:01/02/2018 till:01/03/2018 text:February from:01/03/2018 till:01/04/2018 text:March from:01/04/2018 till:01/05/2018 text:April TextData = pos:(569,23) text:"(For further details, please see" pos:(713,23) text:" scales)"

Systems

Tropical Depression 04F

|10-min winds= This depression formed east of Fiji on December 20th, and tried to strengthen while drifting south-east. However, it encountered harsh wind shear which prevented any further development and sheared off all the circulation to the south-east quadrant. It dissipated on December 26th.

Tropical Disturbance 05F

Formed on January 26, dissipated the next day, 27th. It never strengthened due to the wind shear.

Tropical Cyclone Fehi

|10-min winds=45 |1-min winds=50 Fehi entered the South Pacific basin from the Australian Region on 28th as a subtropical cyclone. It continued its south-southeast track while transitioning to an extratropical cyclone as it approached New Zealand.

As an extratropical cyclone, Fehi caused extensive damage in western New Zealand. Strong winds and heavy rain damaged hundreds of structures, with more than 100 later condemned. Waist-deep water flooded homes in Charleston and Westport. Pounding surf eroded beaches, exposing an old garbage dump at Cobden Beach which left thousands of garbage bags strewn about. Insurance loss were amounted at NZ$38.5 million (US$28.5 million).

Severe Tropical Cyclone Gita

|10-min winds=110 |1-min winds=125 Main article: Cyclone Gita

On 3 February, the Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS) started to monitor Tropical Disturbance 07F, which had developed within a trough of low pressure, about 435 km to the southeast of Honiara in the Solomon Islands. Over the next couple of days, the system moved erratically near northern Vanuatu and remained poorly organized, with convection located to the south of the low-level circulation center. The system started to move south-eastwards on 5 February, towards the Fijian Islands and a favorable environment for further development. The system subsequently passed near the island nation during 8 February, where it developed into a tropical depression and started to move north-eastwards towards the Samoan Islands. On 9 February, the United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) initiated advisories on the system and designated it as Tropical Cyclone 09P, after an ASCAT image showed that it had winds of 65-75 km/h in its northern semicircle. The FMS subsequently named the system Tropical Cyclone Gita, after the United States National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office in Pago Pago requested that the system be named early for warning and humanitarian reasons.

After Gita was named, a prolonged period of rapid intensification ensued as it quickly intensified into a Category 1 tropical cyclone on the Australian tropical cyclone intensity scale, before it passed within 100 km of Samoa and American Samoa. After moving past the Samoan Islands, Gita turned southeast and then southwards. On 10 February, Gita rapidly intensified to a category 3 severe tropical cyclone on the Australian scale while traversing anomalously warm sea surface temperatures of between 82–84 F. On 11 February, Gita continued to intensify into a category 4 severe tropical cyclone. At the same time, Gita turned westward under the influence of a subtropical ridge to the south. At approximately 10:00 UTC (23:00 TOT) on 11 February, the cyclone passed about 30 km south of Tongatapu near its peak intensity, as a powerful Category 5 cyclone on the Australian Scale; the RSMC Nadi-based Australian scale and the JTWC-used Saffir–Simpson scale, with maximum 10-minute sustained winds of 205 km/h. At the same time, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center estimated peak 1-minute sustained winds at 230 km/h. This made Gita the strongest cyclone to strike Tonga in its recorded history.

Tropical Depression 08F

This storm formed on February 3, 2018 to the east of Fiji, Tropical Depression 08F followed an erratic track; however, it didn't strengthen enough to become a category 1 and it dissipated on February 11, 2018.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Hola

|10-min winds=90 |1-min winds=105 Main article: Cyclone Hola

During March 3, 2018 the Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS) reported that Tropical Disturbance 09F had developed within a trough of low pressure about 230 km to the northeast of Nadi, Fiji. At this time the disturbance had a broad low-level circulation and was located within a very favourable environment for further development, with low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. Over the next couple of days, the disturbance gradually developed further as it gradually moved westwards towards Vanuatu, under the influence of a subtropical ridge of high pressure. It was subsequently classified as a tropical depression by the FMS during March 5, before the United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) subsequently issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert on the system later that day.

During March 6, the JTWC initiated advisories on the system and designated it as Tropical Cyclone 12P, after its broad low-level circulation center had slowly consolidated and the overall organisation of the cyclone had improved. The FMS subsequently reported that the system had developed into a Category 1 tropical cyclone on the Australian tropical cyclone intensity scale and named it Hola while it was located about 80 km to the east of Pentecost Island in Vanuatu. After it was named, Hola started developing a weak low level eye feature, before it was classified as a category 2 tropical cyclone as it passed in between the islands of Pentecost and Ambrym. The system subsequently passed over the island of Malekula and moved into the Coral Sea during March 7, where it rapidly consolidated and developed a 10 km pinhole eye. The FMS subsequently reported that Hola had become a Category 4 severe tropical cyclone and predicted that Hola would peak as a Category 5 severe tropical cyclone.

After peaking as a Category 4 severe tropical cyclone on the Australian scale, wind shear rapidly weakened the system as it passed to the west of New Caledonia as a Category 1 tropical cyclone. It continued to the southwest before transitioning to an subtropical storm as it approached New Zealand. It weakened and it degenerated to a remnant low to the northwest of the country.

Tropical Depression 10F (Linda)

|1-min winds=40 |10-min winds=30

On March 11, the FMS reported that Tropical Disturbance 10F, had developed about 85 km to the southwest of Rennell and Bellona Province of the Solomon Islands. The system was poorly organised with deep atmospheric convection, displaced to the east of the system's consolidating low-level circulation center. The disturbance was subsequently classified as Tropical Low 21U by the BoM during March 12, as it moved southwards within an area of low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures.

Tropical Cyclone Iris

|10-min winds=40 |1-min winds=

During March 20, the FMS reported that Tropical Disturbance 11F had developed within an area of low to moderate vertical wind shear, over the eastern Solomon Islands around 200 km to the east of Honiara. At this time the system was poorly organised with deep atmospheric convection, located to the east of the low-level circulation centre. Over the next few days, the system remained weak as it moved erratically around the Solomon Islands and was classified as a tropical depression during March 22.

Tropical Cyclone Josie

|10-min winds=40 |1-min winds=50 During March 29, the Fiji Meteorological Service reported that Tropical Disturbance 12F had developed about 350 km to the east of Port Vila in Vanuatu. At this stage, the system was poorly organised with atmospheric convection surrounding the system displaced to the northeast of the disturbance's weak low-level circulation. However, the disturbance was located to the south of a ridge of high pressure, and within a favourable environment for further development, with low to moderate levels of vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures of around 28 -. By 23:20 UTC that day, the system had strengthened into Tropical Depression 12F. Despite moderate shear, the system organized further into Tropical Cyclone Josie by March 31.

Despite not making landfall, Cyclone Josie caused heavy rainfall and sustained gale-force winds in southern Fiji. Because of these effects, Josie caused upwards of in damages. Severe flooding occurred in the city of Nadi. Altogether, Josie left six people dead. Five people were washed away by floodwaters, of which four are confirmed dead and one is still missing.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Keni

|10-min winds=85 |1-min winds=90 Tropical Cyclone Keni impacted Fiji and caused the cast and crew of the 37th season of the American reality competition series, Survivor, to be temporarily evacuated to the production's base camp.

Tropical Depression 14F

This is the 11th named storm. Formed on April 17, dissipated on April 20.

Other systems

During December 16, Tropical Disturbance 02F developed within a trough of low pressure, about 25 km to the northeast of the island of Futuna. During the following day, Tropical Disturbance 03F developed along the same trough of low pressure about 45 km to the southeast of the island of Wallis. Over the next couple of days, the disturbances moved southeastwards into areas of high vertical wind shear, before they were last noted during December 18 and 19 as they dissipated to the southeast of Samoa.

On January 28, the JTWC issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert on a tropical disturbance, which was located near the French Polynesian island of Rapa Iti. The system had a well defined low-level circulation, and was located within an area of warm sea surface temperatures and marginal vertical wind shear. The system subsequently peaked with 1-minute sustained wind speeds of 65 km/h, which made it equivalent to a tropical storm. The alert was subsequently cancelled during the next day, after the system's low level circulation center became ragged, and atmospheric convection was displaced to the east of the circulation center.

On May 4, 2018, a system identified as a subtropical cyclone formed east of 120°W, near 80°W, just a few hundred miles off the coast of Chile, with researchers unofficially naming the storm Lexi. The cyclone formed in an area without a Regional Specialized Meteorological Center, so it was not officially classified. On May 9, the satellite services division of the NOAA classified the system as a weak subtropical storm, despite occurring in cooler (below 20 °C) sea surface temperatures.

Storm names

Within the Southern Pacific a tropical depression is judged to have reached tropical cyclone intensity should it reach winds of 65 km/h and it is evident that gales are occurring at least halfway around the center. Tropical depressions that intensify into a tropical cyclone between the Equator and 25°S and between 160°E and 120°W are named by the FMS. However, should a tropical depression intensify to the south of 25°S between 160°E and 120°W it will be named by MetService in conjunction with the FMS. If a tropical cyclone moves out of the basin and into the Australian region, it will retain its original name. The names Fehi, Hola, Josie and Keni would be used for the first time this year (and only, in the case of Keni), after replacing the names Frank, Hali, Jo, and Kim after the 1998-99 and 1999-2000 seasons respectively. The names that were used for the 2017-18 season are listed below:

If a tropical cyclone enters the South Pacific basin from the Australian region basin (west of 160°E), it will retain the name assigned to it by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The following storms were named in this manner:

• Linda

Also of note, the name Lexi was assigned to the above mentioned storm, however it is not part of any defined naming list and thus is unofficial.

Retirement

After the season, the names Gita, Josie, and Keni were all retired, and replaced with Garth, Jo, and Kala respectively.

Season effects

This table lists all the storms that developed in the South Pacific to the east of longitude 160°E during the 2017–18 season. It includes their intensity on the Australian tropical cyclone intensity scale, duration, name, landfalls, deaths, and damages. All data is taken from RSMC Nadi and/or TCWC Wellington, and all of the damage figures are in 2017 USD.

|- | || || bgcolor=#| || bgcolor=#| || bgcolor=#|1003 hPa || None || None || None || |- | || || bgcolor=#| || bgcolor=#| || bgcolor=#|1000 hPa || None || None || None || |- | || || bgcolor=#| || bgcolor=#| || bgcolor=#|998 hPa || Fiji || None || None || |- | || || bgcolor=#| || bgcolor=#| || bgcolor=#|996 hPa || New Caledonia || None || None || |- | || || bgcolor=#| || bgcolor=#| || bgcolor=#|986 hPa || New Caledonia, New Zealand || || None || |- | || || bgcolor=#| || bgcolor=#| || bgcolor=#|927 hPa || Fiji, Wallis and Futuna, Samoan Islands, Niue, Tonga, New Caledonia, New Zealand || || || |- | || || bgcolor=#| || bgcolor=#| || bgcolor=#|994 hPa || Fiji || None || None || |- | || || bgcolor=#| || bgcolor=#| || bgcolor=#|952 hPa || Vanuatu, New Caledonia, New Zealand || Unknown || || |- | || || bgcolor=#| || bgcolor=#|35 kn || bgcolor=#|995 hPa || None || None || None || |- | || || bgcolor=#| || bgcolor=#| || bgcolor=#|993 hPa || Solomon Islands || None || None || |- | || || bgcolor=#| || bgcolor=#| || bgcolor=#|993 hPa || Vanuatu, Fiji, Tonga || || 6 || |- | || || bgcolor=#||| bgcolor=#| || bgcolor=#|970 hPa || Vanuatu, Fiji, Tonga || || None || |- | || || bgcolor=#||| bgcolor=#| || bgcolor=#|1000 hPa || Rotuma || Unknown || Unknown || |-

References

References

1. Climate Services Division. (October 26, 2010). "Tropical Cyclone Guidance for Season 2010/11 for the Fiji and the Southwest Pacific". Fiji Meteorological Service.
2. (October 11, 2017). "2017–18 Tropical Cyclone Season Outlook in the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre Nadi – Tropical Cyclone Centre (RSMC Nadi – TCC) Area of Responsibility (AOR)". Fiji Meteorological Service.
3. (October 10, 2017). "Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook - October 2017". National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research.
4. National Climate Centre. (October 9, 2017). "South Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook for 2017 to 2018". Australian Bureau of Meteorology.
5. (March 21, 2018). "CYCLONE FEHI SET TO COST MORE THAN $39M". ICNZ.
6. (3 February 2018). "Rain continues and heavy rain warning remains". Fiji Meteorological Service.
7. RSMC Nadi — Tropical Cyclone Centre. (3 February 2018). "Tropical Disturbance Summary February 3, 2018 09z". Fiji Meteorological Service.
8. RSMC Nadi — Tropical Cyclone Centre. (5 February 2018). "Tropical Disturbance Summary February 5, 2018 09z". Fiji Meteorological Service.
9. (5 February 2018). "TD08F remains slow moving". Fiji Meteorological Service.
10. (8 February 2018). "Heavy rain and strong winds to ease as TD07F moves away". Fiji Meteorological Service.
11. RSMC Nadi — Tropical Cyclone Centre. (8 February 2018). "Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A1". Fiji Meteorological Service.
12. [[Joint Typhoon Warning Center]]. (9 February 2018). "Tropical Cyclone Warning". Government of the United States.
13. RSMC Nadi — Tropical Cyclone Centre. (9 February 2018). "Tropical Disturbance Advisory February 9, 2018 06z". Fiji Meteorological Service.
14. "Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for GITA-18". Joint Typhoon Warning Center.
15. "HURRICANE WARNING 017". RSMC Nadi.
16. "Eyewall of Fearsome Cyclone Gita Churns across Tonga". Weather Underground.
17. "HURRICANE WARNING 024". RSMC Nadi.
18. (12 February 2018). "Tropical Cyclone Gita is a monster Category 4, Nuku'alofa badly battered". Radio New Zealand.
19. (13 February 2018). "Gita's fury: Tropical cyclone hits Tonga and there are now fears for parts of Fiji". New Zealand Herald.
20. (March 3, 2018). "Heavy Rain and Flood Alerts in force". Fiji Meteorological Service.
21. (March 3, 2018). "Tropical Disturbance Summary March 3, 2018 09z". Fiji Meteorological Service.
22. (March 3, 2018). "Significant Tropical Weather Advisory for the Western and South Pacific Oceans March 3, 2018 10z". United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center.
23. (March 6, 2018). "TD09F moving further away from the group". Fiji Meteorological Service.
24. (March 5, 2018). "Tropical Disturbance Summary March 5, 2018 06z". Fiji Meteorological Service.
25. (March 5, 2018). "Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert March 5 2018 14z". United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center.
26. (March 6, 2018). "Tropical Cyclone 12P (Hola) Warning March 6, 2018 15z". United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center.
27. (March 6, 2018). "Tropical Disturbance Advisory March 6, 2018 12z". Fiji Meteorological Service.
28. (March 6, 2018). "Tropical Cyclone 12P (Hola) Warning March 6, 2018 21z". United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center.
29. (March 6, 2018). "Tropical Disturbance Advisory March 6, 2018 18z". Fiji Meteorological Service.
30. (March 7, 2018). "Tropical Disturbance Advisory March 7, 2018 00z". Fiji Meteorological Service.
31. (March 7, 2018). "Tropical Cyclone 12P (Hola) Warning March 7, 2018 15z". United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center.
32. (8 March 2018). "Strengthened Tropical Cyclone Hola batters Vanuatu, likely to hit New Zealand". Stuff.
33. "Archived copy".
34. "Archived copy".
35. "Archived copy".
36. (March 20, 2018). "Tropical Disturbance Summuary March 20, 2018 21z". Fiji Meteorological Service.
37. "Tropical Cyclone Iris Impacts".
38. "Archived copy".
39. (March 29, 2018). "Tropical Disturbance Summary March 29, 2018 21z". Fiji Meteorological Service.
40. (March 30, 2018). "Significant Tropical Weather Advisory March 30, 2018 06z". United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center.
41. (March 29, 2018). "Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W".
42. (March 31, 2018). "Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A3 Issued From RSMC Nadi".
43. (22 January 2019). "Weather, Climate & Catastrophe Insight: 2018 Annual Report". Aon Benfield.
44. "Tropical Cyclone Josie kills 4 in Fiji". Newshub.
45. "Tropical Cyclone Josie puts Fiji tourist town under water".
46. (25 October 2018). "'Survivor' host Jeff Probst reveals where cast went during cyclone".
47. (26 September 2018). "'Survivor David vs. Goliath': The Inside Story of That Shocking Season Premiere".
48. (December 16, 2017). "Tropical Disturbance Summuary December 16, 2017 23z". Fiji Meteorological Service.
49. Climate Services Division. (January 8, 2018). "Fiji Islands Climate Summary December 2017 Volume 38 Issue 12". Fiji Meteorological Service.
50. (December 17, 2017). "Tropical Disturbance Summuary December 17, 2017 23z". Fiji Meteorological Service.
51. (December 18, 2017). "Tropical Disturbance Summuary December 18, 2017 23z". Fiji Meteorological Service.
52. "Archived copy".
53. (January 28, 2018). "Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert January 28, 2018 18z". United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center.
54. "Archived copy".
55. (January 29, 2018). "Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert Cancellation January 29, 2018 18z". United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center.
56. Steve Young. (5 July 2018). "Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Tracks - May 2018". Australia Severe Weather.
57. Levi Cowan. (May 7, 2018). "A subtropical cyclone just west of Chile would definitely be among the weirder things I've seen. Water is usually cold there. Colder than 20C in this case, but the thermodynamic profile does support convection.".
58. John Leslie. (May 9, 2018). "Rare Subtropical Storm off the Coast of Chile". NOAA.
59. (9 March 2018). "Cyclone Hola Kills 1, Injures 2 In Vanuatu".
60. (14 March 2018). "Two More Tc Hola Deaths Confirmed".