1998–99 South Pacific cyclone season

Seasonal summary

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PlotData= barset:Hurricane width:11 align:left fontsize:S shift:(4,-4) anchor:till from:04/12/1998 till:05/12/1998 color:TDi text:"01F (TDi)" from:14/12/1998 till:17/12/1998 color:TD text:"07P (TD)" from:21/12/1998 till:24/12/1998 color:TD text:"02F (TD)" from:23/12/1998 till:28/12/1998 color:C3 text:"Cora (C3)" from:25/12/1998 till:26/12/1998 color:TDi text:"04F (TDi)" from:01/01/1999 till:05/01/1999 color:TD text:"05F (TD)" from:03/01/1999 till:05/01/1999 color:TDi text:"06F (TDi)" barset:break from:15/01/1999 till:22/01/1999 color:C4 text:"Dani (C4)" from:22/01/1999 till:23/01/1999 color:C2 text:"Olinda (C2)" from:23/01/1999 till:26/01/1999 color:C2 text:"Pete (C2)" from:09/02/1999 till:13/02/1999 color:C1 text:"Ella (C1)" from:16/02/1999 till:21/02/1999 color:C3 text:"Frank (C3)" from:17/02/1999 till:19/02/1999 color:TD text:"17F (TD)" from:25/02/1999 till:28/02/1999 color:C1 text:"Gita (C1)" barset:break from:11/03/1999 till:18/03/1999 color:C3 text:"Hali (C3)" from:13/03/1999 till:18/03/1999 color:TD text:"20F (TD)" from:28/03/1999 till:28/03/1999 color:TDi text:"21F (TDi)" from:09/04/1999 till:09/04/1999 color:TDi text:"22F (TDi)" from:21/04/1999 till:21/04/1999 color:TDi text:"23F (TDi)" from:20/05/1999 till:26/05/1999 color:TDi text:"26F (TDi)"

bar:Month width:5 align:center fontsize:S shift:(0,-20) anchor:middle color:canvas from:01/11/1998 till:01/12/1998 text:November from:01/12/1998 till:01/01/1999 text:December from:01/01/1999 till:01/02/1999 text:January from:01/02/1999 till:01/03/1999 text:February from:01/03/1999 till:01/04/1999 text:March from:01/04/1999 till:01/05/1999 text:April from:01/05/1999 till:01/06/1999 text:May

TextData = pos:(569,23) text:"(For further details, please see" pos:(713,23) text:"scales)"

In direct contrast to the previous season when an El Niño episode was observed, 1998–99 was characterised by a La Niña episode, which contributed to the slump in activity that was observed during the season. In total 27 Tropical Disturbances and Tropical Depressions developed, of which 8 developed further into tropical cyclones and severe tropical cyclones. The shift from El Niño to a La Niña also helped shift the mean genesis area into the Coral Sea area from just east of the Northern Cook Islands, with 5 of the 8 cyclones during the season developing in that area.

Systems

Tropical Depression 07P

|1-min winds=30 |10-min winds=40

On December 11, the JTWC started to monitor an area of disturbed weather had developed within a trough of low pressure, about 670 km (415 mi) to the northeast of Honiara in the Solomon Islands. Over the next couple of days the disturbed weather drifted towards the west and moved into the eastern portion of the Australian region. By late on December 14 a tropical disturbance had developed on the south-eastern end of the trough, before as it moved back into the South Pacific region, the FMS declared it a tropical depression.07P was not assigned an "F" designator because the depression had originated in the Australian region.

JTWC initiated warnings on the system at 15/0900 UTC due to a ship report of 34 kn at 0000 UTC. Bulletins from Nadi alluded to gales being present in the southern and eastern quadrants, but since they were not surrounding the center, the depression was not named as a tropical cyclone. The depression moved southeastward roughly parallel to and several hundred miles southwest of New Caledonia. By 0600 UTC on December 16 the system was about 250 nmi southwest of Nouméa and had moved across 25S and into the AOR of the Wellington, New Zealand, office. The depression turned to the south and accelerated as it began to lose tropical characteristics. It passed about 210 nmi west of Norfolk Island at 1700 UTC, and had become extratropical about 400 nmi west-northwest of New Zealand's North Cape by 0500 UTC on December 17.

Tropical Depression 02F

|10-min winds=35 |1-min winds=50

Severe Tropical Cyclone Cora

|10-min winds=75 |1-min winds=90 This storm brought some damage to Tonga.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Dani

|10-min winds=100 |1-min winds=115 Although Dani never threatened to strike Fiji, its outer bands brought catastrophic rainfall to the nation, killing 12 people and leaving US$3.5 million in damage behind. Damage in Vanuatu was estimated at 1 billion Vatu (US$8.5 million).

Tropical Cyclone Olinda

|10-min winds=55 |1-min winds=55

On January 22, Tropical Cyclone Olinda moved into the basin about 740 km (460 mi) to the west-northwest of Nouméa, New Caledonia, with 10-minute sustained windspeeds of 85 km/h which made it a category 1 tropical cyclone on the Australian scale. During that day, the cyclone quickly moved towards the east-southeast quickly and managed to intensify into a category two tropical cyclone before it moved into TCWC Wellington's area of responsibility.

Tropical Cyclone Olinda formed in the eastern portion of the Australian Region and was named by the Brisbane TCWC at 1800 UTC on January 21. Shortly after this, it entered Nadi's AOR a strong gale (45 knots), steadily moving east-southeast towards an area of westerly shear and slightly cooler SST's. However, environmental factors outweighed this and the system intensified further to reach storm force at 1800 UTC on the 22nd, 24 hours 8 after being named. Wellington took over warning responsibility for this system after 0000 UTC on the 23rd, while on an easterly track. Peak intensity of 55 knots was reached at 1800 UTC on the 23rd, well into Wellington's AOR, when it was also deemed extra-tropical. While in Nadi's AOR, Olinda did not directly threaten any populated areas. The cyclone remained on a relatively steady east-southeasterly trajectory, carrying it about 150 miles southwest of New Caledonia. Olinda passed about 150 miles south of Noumea at 0000 UTC on the 23rd, just as it was about to cross into Wellington's AOR.

Olinda entered the Southwest Pacific basin shortly after being named by Brisbane at a point about 400 nm west-northwest of Noumea. The cyclone had MSW estimated at 45 kts and was already moving at a fairly good pace toward the east-southeast. Olinda was approaching an area of westerly shear and slightly cooler SSTs, but the steering flow was an increasing deep-layer mean flow; and with environmental factors being basically favorable for further intensification, the cyclone continued to strengthen. Peak intensity of 55 kts was reached after Olinda had passed into the Wellington AOR on Jan 23

While in Nadi's AOR Olinda did not directly threaten any populated areas. The cyclone remained on a relatively steady east-southeasterly trajectory which carried it about 150 nm southwest of New Caledonia. Olinda passed about 150 nm south of Noumea at 23/0000 UTC just as it was about to cross 25S into Wellington's AOR. The storm subsequently turned to more of an easterly course and, as vertical shear increased, began to lose tropical characteristics. The Wellington office deemed Olinda extratropical at 1800 UTC on Jan 23 as it sped eastward, and was last mentioned 24 hours later when the remnants were located about 525 nm south of Fiji. --

Tropical Cyclone Pete

|10-min winds=55 |1-min winds=55

On January 23, Tropical Cyclone Pete moved into the South Pacific basin, while at its 1-minute and 10-minute peak intensities of 95 km/h and 100 km/h, which made it a tropical storm or a weak category two tropical cyclone on the Australian Scale.

and was also racing into waters already cooled somewhat by the passage of Olinda and Dani. At 24/0600 UTC it started to turn east-southeast and six hours later was located near the boundary with Wellington's AOR (25S). Warning responsibility was handed over to Wellington in anticipation of Pete's continued east-southeastward motion, but by 25/0000 UTC it was clearly evident on visible satellite pictures that the center was back north of 25S.

Therefore, Nadi resumed issuing warnings as Pete headed east. However, the environmental conditions had become quite unfavorable and Pete steadily weakened. By late on the 25th the low-level center was exposed and there was no deep convection. The cyclone had just crossed the path where Tropical Cyclone Olinda had passed about two and a half days earlier, and was forecast to reach Tropical Cyclone Dani's five day-old path by 26/1200 UTC. Pete passed about 100 nm south of Noumea around 1200 UTC on Jan 25 and continued drifting slowly eastward as it weakened. The system was downgraded to a depression at 26/0600 UTC but some gales continued in the southern and eastern quadrants for another day or so. The last warning at 27/1800 UTC placed the center about 200 nm southeast of Noumea.

Pete did not affect any land while in the Southern Pacific.

Pete entered Nadi's AOR around 1800 UTC on the 23rd at a point only about 90 miles to the south of where Tropical Cyclone Olinda had crossed 160E, forty-eight hours earlier. Pete entered Nadi's area at its peak intensity of 50 knots and, like Olinda, moved at a fairly quick pace towards the southeast under a strong northwesterly steering current. The cyclone was being subjected to strengthening westerly shear at this stage and was also racing into waters already cooled by the passage of Olinda and Dani. At 0600 UTC on the 24th, it started to turn east-southeast and six hours later was located near our common boundary with Wellington. Warning responsibility was handed over to Wellington in anticipation of Pete's continued east-southeastward motion, but by 0000 UTC on the 25th, it was clearly evident on visible satellite imagery that the center was back north of the boundary. Consequently, Nadi resumed issuing warnings as Pete headed east. However, unfavorable environmental conditions forced Pete to weaken and by late on the 25th the low-level centre was exposed, with deep convection sheared well off. Pete passed about 100 miles south of Noumea around 1200 UTC on the 25th and continued drifting slowly eastwards as it weakened steadily. It was downgraded to a depression at 0600 UTC on the 26th with gales continuing in the southern and eastern quadrants for another day or so. Pete did not approach any populated land areas during its lifetime in Nadi's AOR.

--

Tropical Cyclone Ella

|10-min winds=45 |1-min winds=45

On February 9, the FMS reported that a tropical depression had developed within a monsoon trough, about 130 mi to the south of Honaira on the Solomon Island: Guadalcanal. During that day the depression moved towards the east and gradually intensified, as convection started to organise while vertical windshear over the system decreased, before the JTWC initiated advisories and designated the depression as Tropical Cyclone 19P. During February 10, 19P started to move towards the southeast while developing further before the FMS named the depression as Ella early the next day, before it turned and accelerated towards the south and passed about 100 mi to the west of the northern tip Espiritu Santo.

The cyclone reached its peak intensity of 45 knots around 1800 UTC on the 11th. Soon after, an area of strong subsidence to the south of Ella and a southerly flow entrained drier air into the system hindering further development. Also, the steering current forced the cyclone quickly southward, into an area of increasing vertical shear. Consequently, the low-level circulation centre (llcc) was exposed for most parts of the daytime hours on the 12th. Ella's intensity dropped also as a result, but was increased again at 1200 UTC as the llcc moved back under the deep convection. Ella passed about 175 miles west of Port Vila, Vanuatu, at 0000 UTC on the 12th and accelerated to the south-southeast through the Loyalty and continued on within 60 miles east-northeast of New Caledonia around 1800 UTC, weakening gradually. Wellington took over warning responsibility after 0600 UTC on the 13th as the system slipped south of the common boundary. It was declared extra-tropical by Wellington at 0000 UTC on the 14th when it was located about 200 miles northeast of Norfolk Island. The rapid translational motion through the Loyalty Group augmented the winds on the left-hand front side of the storm. Lifou recorded a maximum 10-minute average wind of 46 knots at 1314 UTC on the 12th with a peak gust of 65 knots. Some significant damage was sustained by buildings and vegetation on the northern side of Lifou, but, no casualties or fatalities were reported.

The cyclone reached its peak intensity of 45 kts also about this time. An area of strong subsidence to the south of Ella and a southerly flow entrained drier air into the system which hindered its development. Also, as a subtropical ridge to the east steered Ella quickly southward, the cyclone moved into an area of increasing vertical wind shear. By early on Feb 12 the low-level center had become exposed, but later in the day moved back under some deep convection and re-intensified slightly. This was reflected in the MSW estimates by both JTWC and Nadi. Ella passed about 175 nm west of Port Vila, Vanuatu, at 12/0000 UTC and continued on rather quickly to the south-southeast. The cyclone passed through the Loyalty Islands lying to the east of New Caledonia; passing over Ouvea around 1200 UTC and brushing the west coast of Lifou a few hours later. Ella passed about 60 nm east-northeast of Noumea around 1800 UTC and continued on southeastward, slowly weakening. The storm was declared extratropical by Wellington at 0000 UTC on Feb 14 when it was located about 200 nm northeast of Norfolk Island. Tropical Cyclone Ella was moving at about 20 kts when it passed through the Loyalty Islands. The estimated MSW at the time was 40 kts, but the rapid translational motion augmented the winds on the lefthand side of the storm. Lifou recorded a maximum 10-min wind of 46 kts at 12/1314 UTC with a peak gust of 65 kts. Some significant damage was sustained by buildings and vegetation on the northern side of the island of Lifou, but no casualties or fatalities have been reported.

--

Severe Tropical Cyclone Frank

|10-min winds=80 |1-min winds=95 Main article: Cyclones Rona and Frank

This storm regenerated from Rona.

Tropical Depression 17F

|10-min winds=40

On February 17, the FMS reported that a weak tropical depression, had developed within a monsoon trough over the southern Fijian islands. During that day, the depression moved slowly towards the east before it started to turn towards the southeast during the next day while convection started to organize further. Later that day, the FMS issued a marine weather bulletin, warning that the depression had 10-minute sustained windspeeds of 75 km/h. However, the depression was not classified as a tropical cyclone as the gale-force windspeeds were only present in the southern semicircle because of a pressure gradient with a surface ridge of high pressure to the south of the system.Within the Australian and Southern Pacific basins: A tropical depression must have gale-force winds completely surrounding the centre before the system is classified as a tropical cyclone. Over the next couple of days the depression moved towards the southeast before it was last noted by the FMS, during February 19 as it approached MetService's area of responsibility.

Tropical Cyclone Gita

|10-min winds=45 |1-min winds=40 On February 25, the FMS started to monitor a weak shallow depression that had developed within the South Pacific Convergence Zone just to the north of the Southern Cooks Islands. Over the next two days the depression gradually developed further, before the system moved out of the FMS's area of responsibility during February 27 as it developed into a category one tropical cyclone. TCWC Wellington, in conjunction with the FMS, subsequently named it Gita.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Hali

|10-min winds=65 |1-min winds=50

Early on March 11, the NPMOC and the FMS started to monitor a tropical disturbance that had developed within the South Pacific Convergence Zone between the Southern Cook Islands and French Polynesia. Later that day as the disturbance moved towards the southwest, the FMS reported that it had developed into a tropical depression while located about 300 mi to the east of the Cook Island: Aitutaki. Under the influence of diurnal effects and significant vertical shear the depression slowly developed over the next couple of days while drifting through the southern Cook Islands. By 1800 UTC on January 12, the depressions low level circulation centre had moved under the deep convection, as result the FMS then reported that the system had developed into a tropical cyclone and named it Hali. At the same time the NPMOC initiated advisories on Hali and designated it as Tropical Cyclone 27P, while it was equivalent to a tropical storm with 1-minute sustained windspeeds of 65 km/h. After it was named Hali moved towards the west, before early on January 13, the NPMOC reported that Hali had reached its 1-minute peak intensity of 95 km/h.

Over the next 3 days, Hali moved towards the west as it gradually intensified further, before early on March 16, an approaching upper trough of low pressure caused a weakness in the subtropical ridge. As a result, the cyclone started to move towards the south, while the FMS reported that Hali had reached its 10-minute peak windspeeds of 120 km/h, which made it a category 3 severe tropical cyclone on the Australian scale. Later that day the FMS reported that the cyclone had started to rapidly weaken because of increasing vertical windshear and cooler sea surface temperatures, and interference from Tropical Depression 20F. As a result, the FMS reported at 1200 UTC on January 18, that Hali had weakened into a depression before later that day the cyclone got caught up in the low level steering field and drifted into TCWC Wellington's area of responsibility during the next day. The remnants of Hali were then last noted during March 20, as they dissipated about 1200 km to the southeast of Avarua on the Southern Cook Island: Rarotonga.

Tropical Depression 20F

|10-min winds=35

On March 13, the FMS reported that Tropical Disturbance 20F had developed about 800 km to the northeast of Papeete, French Polynesia. The disturbance was located in an upper-level environment that was not favorable for further development, and deep convection surrounding the system was limited to the northern quadrant. Over the next couple of days the disturbance moved towards the west-southwest and was classified as a tropical depression early on March 15, while it was located about 160 km to the northwest of Tahiti. The depression then developed gale-force winds of 65 km/h during the next day, however, because they were only found in one or two quadrants and did not wrap around the depression's exposed center, it was not considered to be a tropical cyclone. The depressions center was also exposed and displaced to the southwest of the deep convection at this time. The depression was then last noted later that day as it moved into MetService's area of responsibility, about 400 km to the southeast of Avarua in the Southern Cook Islands.

Other systems

The following weak tropical disturbances were also monitored by the FMS, however all of these systems were either short lived or did not develop significantly. The first, Tropical Disturbance 01F, developed about 540 km (340 mi) to the northwest of Apia in American Samoa, however the system remained weak and was last noted later that day. On December 25, Tropical Disturbance 04F developed over the Coral Sea within an area of strong vertical windshear in the Australian region. During that day 04F moved towards the southeast and entered the South Pacific basin, before dissipating during December 26. Tropical Depression 05F then developed on January 1 to the north of the Southern Cook Islands, while showing some baroclinic characteristics, before developing a fair amount of convection around the centre. Convection surrounding the system decreased during January 3, before the system had become unclassifiable by January 5. Tropical Disturbance 06F formed on January 3, to the southwest of French Polynesia, in an area of strong vertical windshear. Over the next couple of days the disturbance moved towards the southwest and never showed any signs of organising significantly. Tropical Low/Disturbance 08F developed on January 16, within an active convergence zone, that was located to the east of Fiji. Over the next couple of days convection around the centre increased slightly but vertical windshear restrained 08F from developing significantly, before on January 19 it moved into much cooler waters and stronger vertical windshear which ultimately led its demise. Along with Cyclone Dani, 08F extended a trough of low pressure on to Fiji which caused significant flooding, 6 deaths and about 4 million (1999 FJD) worth of damage.

Tropical Disturbances 11F, 12F, 13F and 15F were all weak tropical disturbances, that occurred during the first half of February. On March 28, the FMS reported that Tropical Disturbance 21F had developed about 335 km (210 mi) to the northeast of Niue. During the day the disturbance remained weak as it moved towards the south, however the disturbance did not develop any further as it was located in an unfavourable environment for further development. The basin then was quiet, until April 9 when Tropical Disturbance 22F developed in the eastern portion of the Australian region within an area of high vertical windshear, and slowly moved south-eastwards into the basin without developing further. The next disturbance then developed within the South Pacific Convergence Zone on April 21, to the southeast of Tonga. As the system moved towards the southeast, further development was inhibited by strong north-westerly winds and it quickly became extratropical. As an extratropical cyclone 23F generated significant damaging swells that affected most countries within the Southern Pacific for about a week. Tropical Depression 26F developed about 480 mi to the east of Port Villa, Vanuatu, ahead of an approaching trough of low pressure, while deep convection lied to the southeast of the low level circulation centre. Over the next few days, the system moved generally southwards slowly, before on May 25, it turned and started accelerating towards New Zealand. On May 27, the remnants of Tropical Depression 26F were absorbed by a large polar low, that was located to the south of the remnants.

Season effects

|- | || || bgcolor=#| || bgcolor=#| || bgcolor=#| || None || None || None || |- | || || bgcolor=#| || bgcolor=#| || bgcolor=#| || || || || |- | || || bgcolor=#| || bgcolor=#| || bgcolor=#| || || || || |- | || || bgcolor=#| || bgcolor=#| || bgcolor=#| || Tonga || || || |- | || || bgcolor=#| || bgcolor=#| || bgcolor=#| || None || || || |- | || || bgcolor=#| || bgcolor=#| || bgcolor=#| || None || || || |- | || || bgcolor=#| || bgcolor=#| || bgcolor=#| || None || || || |- | || || bgcolor=#| || bgcolor=#| || bgcolor=#| || Vanuatu, New Caledonia, Fiji || || 2 || |- | || || bgcolor=#| || bgcolor=#| || bgcolor=#| || Fiji || || || |- | || || bgcolor=#| || bgcolor=#| || bgcolor=#| || None || || || |- | || || bgcolor=#| || bgcolor=#||| bgcolor=#| || None || || || |- | || || bgcolor=#| || bgcolor=#| || bgcolor=#| || None || || || |- | || || bgcolor=#| || bgcolor=#| || bgcolor=#| || None || || || |- | || || bgcolor=#| || bgcolor=#| || bgcolor=#| || None || || || |- | || || bgcolor=#| || bgcolor=#| || bgcolor=#| || Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, New Caledonia || || || |- | || || bgcolor=#| || bgcolor=#| || bgcolor=#| || None || || || |- | || || bgcolor=#| || bgcolor=#| || bgcolor=#| || || || || |- | || || bgcolor=#| || bgcolor=#| || bgcolor=#| || None || || || |- | || || bgcolor=#| || bgcolor=#| || bgcolor=#| || None || None || None || |- | || || bgcolor=#| || bgcolor=#| || bgcolor=#| || Cook Islands || None || None || |- | || || bgcolor=#| || bgcolor=#|65 km/h || bgcolor=#| || French Polynesia, Cook Islands || || || |- | || || bgcolor=#| || bgcolor=#|Unknown || bgcolor=#|Unknown || None || || || |- | || || bgcolor=#| || bgcolor=#|Unknown || bgcolor=#|Unknown || None || || || |- | || || bgcolor=#| || bgcolor=#|Unknown || bgcolor=#|Unknown || Several || || || |- | || || bgcolor=#| || bgcolor=#|Unknown || bgcolor=#| || None || || || |- | || || bgcolor=#| || bgcolor=#|Unknown || bgcolor=#| || None || || || |- | || || bgcolor=#| || bgcolor=#|75 km/h || bgcolor=#| || Queensland, New Zealand || || || |-

Notes

References

References

1. the FMS — Tropical Cyclone Centre. (1999). "the FMS Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Summary 1998–99". Fiji Meteorological Service.
2. Oates, Sue. (September 3, 2000). "The South Pacific and southeast Indian Ocean tropical cyclone season 1998–99". Australian: Bureau of Meteorology.
3. Republic of Vanuatu's National Advisory Committee on Climate Change. (September 27, 2007). "National adaptation programme for action". United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.
4. Phillips, Brian. (July 20, 2009). "Environmental Degradation and migration – the experiences of Vanuatu". Institute of Policy Studies.
5. Joint Typhoon Warning Center. (2000). "Tropical Cyclone 14P (Pete) Best Track Analysis". United States Navy, United States Air Force.
6. Padgett, Gary. (1999). "Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary February 1999".
7. ["1999 Tropical Cyclone HALI (1999070S19206)"]({{IBTRACS url). International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship.
8. Padgett, Gary. (1999). "Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary March 1999".
9. (March 12, 1999). "Tropical Cyclone 27P (Hali) Warning March 12, 1999 18z". United States Naval Pacific Meteorology and Oceanography Center.
10. Naval Pacific Meteorology and Oceanography Center. (March 14, 1999). "Tropical Cyclone 27P (Hali) Warning 1999-03-14 12z". United States Navy, United States Air Force.
11. Padgett, Gary. (1999). "Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Tracks: March 1999".
12. Padgett, Gary. (1999). "Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary December 1998".
13. Padgett, Gary. (1999). "Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary January 1999".
14. Padgett, Gary. (1999). "Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary April 1999".
15. Padgett, Gary. (1999). "Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary May 1999".