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2016 United States Senate election in South Carolina

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FieldValue
election_name2016 United States Senate election in South Carolina
countrySouth Carolina
typepresidential
ongoingno
previous_election2014 United States Senate special election in South Carolina
previous_year2014
(special)
next_election2022 United States Senate election in South Carolina
next_year2022
election_dateNovember 8, 2016
image_size150x150px
image1File:Tim_Scott_official_portrait.jpg
nominee1**Tim Scott**
party1Republican Party (United States)
popular_vote1**1,241,609**
percentage1**60.57%**
image2File:Sc pastor thomas dixon.jpg
nominee2Thomas Dixon
party2Democratic Party (United States)
popular_vote2757,022
percentage236.93%
map_image
map_size230px
map_caption**Scott:**
**Dixon:**
**Tie:**
titleU.S. Senator
before_electionTim Scott
before_partyRepublican Party (United States)
after_electionTim Scott
after_partyRepublican Party (United States)

(special) Dixon:
Tie:
The 2016 United States Senate election in South Carolina was held on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of South Carolina, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Both major parties held their primaries on June 14.

Incumbent Republican Senator Tim Scott won re-election to a first full term in office.

This was the second U.S. Senate election in South Carolina (and the second of three consecutive elections for this seat) where both major party nominees were black, and the third overall since the passage of the Seventeenth Amendment.

Background

Two-term Republican senator Jim DeMint was re-elected with 61.48% of the vote in 2010. He resigned at the start of 2013 to become President of The Heritage Foundation and U.S. Representative Tim Scott of South Carolina's 1st congressional district was appointed to replace him by Governor Nikki Haley. Scott subsequently won the special election in 2014 for the remaining two years of the term.

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Tim Scott, incumbent U.S. Senator

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Thomas Dixon, pastor and community activist (also running with Green Party nomination)

Declined

  • Joyce Dickerson, Richland County Councilwoman and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2014 (running for reelection)

General election

Candidates

  • Tim Scott (Republican), incumbent U.S. Senator
  • Thomas Dixon (Democratic, Green), pastor and community activist
  • Bill Bledsoe (Libertarian, Constitution)
  • Michael Scarborough (American), attorney

Debates

DatesLocationScottDixonLink
October 24, 2016Greenville, South CarolinaParticipantParticipant

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political ReportNovember 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political ReportNovember 3, 2016
Daily KosNovember 8, 2016
Real Clear PoliticsNovember 7, 2016

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorTim
Scott (R)Thomas
Dixon (D)OtherUndecided
SurveyMonkeyNovember 1–7, 20161,698± 4.6%**59%**38%–3%
SurveyMonkeyOctober 31–November 6, 20161,642± 4.6%**58%**39%–3%
SurveyMonkeyOctober 28–November 3, 20161,583± 4.6%**58%**39%–3%
SurveyMonkeyOctober 27–November 2, 20161,501± 4.6%**58%**39%–3%
SurveyMonkeyOctober 26–November 1, 20161,588± 4.6%**57%**40%–3%
SurveyMonkeyOctober 25–31, 20161,762± 4.6%**56%**39%–5%
Starboard Communications (R)September 7–9, 2016600± 4.8%**58%**22%–16%
Public Policy PollingAugust 9–10, 20161,290± 2.7%**45%**30%6%20%

with Joyce Dickerson

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorTim
Scott (R)Joyce
Dickerson (D)Undecided
Public Policy PollingNovember 7–8, 20151,290± 2.7%**53%**25%23%

with Bakari Sellers

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorTim
Scott (R)Bakari
Sellers (D)Undecided
Public Policy PollingFebruary 12–15, 2015868± 3.3%**56%**28%16%

with Leon Lott

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorTim
Scott (R)Leon
Lott (D)Undecided
Public Policy PollingFebruary 12–15, 2015868± 3.3%**54%**27%19%

with Jim Hodges

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorTim
Scott (R)Jim
Hodges (D)Undecided
Public Policy PollingFebruary 12–15, 2015868± 3.3%**54%**32%15%

Results

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

  • Calhoun (largest town: St. Matthews)
  • Clarendon (Largest city: Manning)

By congressional district

Scott won six of seven congressional districts.

DistrictScottDixonRepresentative
**65%**33%Mark Sanford
**63%**34%Joe Wilson
**71%**27%Jeff Duncan
**67%**30%Trey Gowdy
**59%**38%Mick Mulvaney
35%**63%**Jim Clyburn
**61%**37%Tom Rice

References

Notes

References

  1. (January 28, 2015). "Senators Confirm Re-Election Bids for 2016". Roll Call.
  2. Jeff Zeleny. (December 17, 2012). "Rep. Tim Scott Chosen to Replace Jim DeMint as South Carolina Senator". The New York Times.
  3. Rindge, Brenda. (February 22, 2016). "Thomas Dixon to challenge U.S. Sen. Tim Scott". [[The Post and Courier]].
  4. (November 2, 2015). "SOUTH CAROLINA: Richland Co Councilwoman & '14 nom Joyce Dickerson (D) back for a second run vs US Sen Tim Scott (R)". Twitter.
  5. "Candidate Listing for the 11/8/2016 Statewide General Election". South Carolina Election Commission.
  6. "Candidate Listing for the 11/8/2016 Statewide General Election". South Carolina Election Commission.
  7. Crowder, Mike. (May 15, 2016). "American Party of SC nominates candidates for a handful of offices". WRHI.
  8. [https://www.c-span.org/video/?417499-1/south-carolina-senate-debate Full debate - C-SPAN]
  9. "2016 Senate Race Ratings for November 2, 2016".
  10. "2016 Senate".
  11. "2016 Senate Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report.
  12. "Daily Kos Election 2016 forecast: The final version".
  13. "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics.
  14. [https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArc1RLTFJqQ3JhTTA/view SurveyMonkey]
  15. [https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArcEwxQXh2M25qSFE/view SurveyMonkey]
  16. [https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kAreE9xVzhyUUNZNGc/view SurveyMonkey]
  17. [https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArd1o5cmhoTmVQbDg/view SurveyMonkey]
  18. [https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArcTNEc0hBTzFlSVE/view SurveyMonkey]
  19. [https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kAraEFpRXdFc21TVG8/view SurveyMonkey]
  20. [http://www.postandcourier.com/20160913/160919767/trump-leads-in-new-sc-gop-poll-out-today Starboard Communications (R)] {{Webarchive. link. (September 14, 2016)
  21. [http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_SC_81116.pdf Public Policy Polling]
  22. Fusion voting total- 28% as D, 2% as G
  23. Bill Bledsoe (L) with 4% and Michael Scarborough (A) with 2%
  24. [http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_SC_111715.pdf Public Policy Polling]
  25. [http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_SC_22015.pdf Public Policy Polling]
  26. "2016 Statewide General Election official results". South Carolina State Election Commission.
  27. "2016 South Carolina Senatorial Election Turnout Data".
  28. Aggregated total includes 37,610 votes Dixon received under the Working Families Party, and 14,872 votes received under the Green Party.
  29. Aggregated total includes 12,652 votes received under the Constitution Party.
  30. "DRA 2020".
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