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2016 United States Senate election in Indiana

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2016 United States Senate election in Indiana

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FieldValue
election_name2016 United States Senate election in Indiana
countryIndiana
typepresidential
ongoingno
previous_election2010 United States Senate election in Indiana
previous_year2010
next_election2022 United States Senate election in Indiana
next_year2022
election_dateNovember 8, 2016
image1File:Senator Todd Young official portrait.jpg
image_size150x150px
nominee1**Todd Young**
party1Republican Party (United States)
popular_vote1**1,423,991**
percentage1**52.11%**
image2File:SenatorBayh (1).jpg
nominee2Evan Bayh
party2Democratic Party (United States)
popular_vote21,158,974
percentage242.41%
image33x4.svg
nominee3Lucy Brenton
party3Libertarian Party (United States)
popular_vote3149,481
percentage35.47%
map_image
map_size250px
map_caption**Young:**
**Bayh:**
**Tie:**
titleU.S. Senator
before_electionDan Coats
before_partyRepublican Party (United States)
after_electionTodd Young
after_partyRepublican Party (United States)

Bayh:
Tie:
The 2016 United States Senate election in Indiana was held on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Indiana. The election was held alongside the presidential election and 2016 Indiana elections.

Republican incumbent Dan Coats, who had served in the Senate since 2011 and previously from 1989 to 1999, ultimately chose to not seek reelection. U.S. Representative Todd Young won the May 3 Republican primary to succeed him, with former U.S. Representative Baron Hill winning the Democratic nomination. However, Hill withdrew from the race on July 11, with former senator Evan Bayh entering the race to regain the seat, which he held from 1999 to 2011.

The Indiana Democratic Party formally chose Bayh as Hill's replacement on July 22. Following his entry, Bayh was initially seen as the frontrunner in the race. However, during the campaign, he faced heavy criticism over his post-Senate career as a lobbyist, as well as questions about his residency in the state. Young ultimately won by a comfortable margin, defeating Bayh in the general election by 10 points.

Background

Republican Senator Dan Coats, who had served in the Senate since 2011, and previously from 1989 to 1999, stated that he planned to run for re-election, but in March 2014 his chief of staff said that Coats had "decided not to decide whether to run again until after the [2014] midterm elections".

On March 24, 2015, Coats announced that he would not run for re-election, citing that he would be of advanced age (just under 80 years old) by the end of the 2017–2023 term, should he complete it.

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Marlin Stutzman, U.S. representative and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010
  • Todd Young, U.S. representative

Withdrawn

  • Kevin Grant, financial consultant and candidate for IN-04 in 2014 (running for IN-04)
  • Eric Holcomb, Senator Coats' chief of staff and former chairman of the Indiana Republican Party (appointed and ran for lieutenant governor before replacing Mike Pence as the nominee for governor)

Declined

  • Greg Ballard, former mayor of Indianapolis
  • Jim Banks, state senator (running for IN-03)
  • Brian Bosma, speaker of the Indiana House of Representatives
  • Susan Brooks, U.S. representative and former United States attorney for the Southern District of Indiana (running for re-election)
  • Larry Bucshon, U.S. representative (running for re-election)
  • Dan Coats, incumbent U.S. senator
  • Mitch Daniels, president of Purdue University and former governor of Indiana
  • Mike Delph, state senator
  • Richard Lugar, former U.S. senator
  • Jim Merritt, state senator
  • Luke Messer, U.S. representative (running for re-election)
  • Mike Pence, governor of Indiana and former U.S. representative (running for vice president of the United States)
  • Todd Rokita, U.S. representative and former secretary of state of Indiana (running for re-election)
  • Jackie Walorski, U.S. representative (running for re-election)
  • Greg Zoeller, Indiana attorney general (running for IN-09)

Endorsements

  • Citizens United
  • Club for Growth
  • FreedomWorks
  • Senate Conservatives Fund

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorTodd
YoungMarlin
StutzmanUndecided
NBC/WSJ/MaristApril 26–28, 2016645± 3.9%**56%**24%20%
IPFW/Downs CenterApril 13–27, 2016400± 4.9%**42%**34%24%
WTHR/HoweyApril 18–21, 2016507± 4.0%**43%**31%26%

Results

Results by county:

]]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Baron Hill, former U.S. representative and nominee for U.S. Senate in 1990 (withdrew after winning primary)

Withdrawn

  • John Dickerson, former nonprofit organization director

Declined

  • Pete Buttigieg, mayor of South Bend
  • André Carson, U.S. representative (running for re-election)
  • Brad Ellsworth, former U.S. representative and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2010
  • John Gregg, former speaker of the Indiana House of Representatives and nominee for governor in 2012 (running for governor)
  • Christina Hale, state representative (running for lieutenant governor)
  • Thomas McDermott Jr., mayor of Hammond
  • Bart Peterson, former mayor of Indianapolis
  • Glenda Ritz, Indiana Superintendent of Public Instruction (running for re-election)
  • Jonathan Weinzapfel, former mayor of Evansville and nominee for Indiana's 8th congressional district in 1996

Endorsements

Individuals

  • Evan Bayh, former U.S. senator for this seat and former governor of Indiana, replacement nominee

Organizations

  • Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee

Results

Democratic State Central Committee selection

On July 11, 2016, CNN's Tom LoBianco announced that Bayh would enter the race to regain his old Senate seat and Hill would drop out and withdraw his name from the November ballot. without explicitly endorsing Bayh. The first candidate to declare was Bob Kern, a frequent candidate for Congress in various districts around the state. Bayh officially declared for the race July 13. The Indiana Democratic Party's State Central Committee chose Bayh as Hill's replacement, for the general election.

Candidates

  • Evan Bayh, former U.S. senator and governor of Indiana
  • Bob Kern, candidate for IN-7 in 2012, IN-2 in 2014, and IN-9 2016

General election

Candidates

  • Evan Bayh (D), former U.S. senator and governor of Indiana
  • Lucy Brenton (L)
  • Todd Young (R), U.S. representative

Debates

DatesLocationYoungBayhBrentonLink
October 18, 2016Indianapolis, IndianaParticipantParticipantParticipant

Endorsements

U.S. cabinet members and cabinet-level officials

  • Hillary Clinton, 67th United States secretary of state, former U.S. senator from New York, 2008 presidential candidate and 2016 presidential nominee

Mayors

  • Tom Henry, Fort Wayne, Indiana

Organizations

  • Daily News Bin

Labor unions

  • UAW - United Automobile Workers

Newspapers

  • The Journal Gazette
  • South Bend Tribune

Presidents of the United States

  • George W. Bush, 43rd president of the United States

U.S. senators

  • Tom Cotton, Arkansas
  • Ted Cruz, Texas and 2016 presidential candidate

U.S. representatives

Former state party chairs

  • Al Hubbard
  • Jim Kittle

Individuals

Organizations

  • American Conservative Union
  • Indiana Right to Life
  • National Federation of Independent Business
  • National Rifle Association - Political Victory Fund
  • United States Chamber of Commerce

Newspapers

  • The Indianapolis Star
  • The Times of Northwest Indiana

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political ReportNovember 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political ReportNovember 3, 2016
Daily KosNovember 8, 2016
Real Clear PoliticsNovember 7, 2016

Polling

Graphical summary

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorTodd
Young (R)Evan
Bayh (D)Lucy
Brenton (L)Undecided
SurveyMonkeyNovember 1–7, 20161,700± 4.6%**53%**42%—5%
SurveyMonkeyOct 31–Nov 6, 20161,383± 4.6%**52%**43%—5%
WTHR/HoweyNovember 1–3, 2016600± 4.0%**46%**41%6%7%
SurveyMonkeyOct 28–Nov 3, 2016923± 4.6%**52%**43%—5%
SurveyMonkeyOct 27–Nov 2, 2016790± 4.6%**51%**44%—5%
Gravis MarketingOct 30–Nov 1, 2016399± 4.9%37%**40%**7%16%
SurveyMonkeyOct 26–Nov 1, 2016638± 4.6%**51%**46%—3%
SurveyMonkeyOctober 25–31, 2016674± 4.6%**50%**46%—4%
Monmouth UniversityOctober 27–30, 2016402± 4.9%**45%****45%**4%5%
Gravis MarketingOctober 22–24, 2016596± 2.3%37%**39%**7%17%
WISH/Ball State Hoosier SurveyOctober 10–16, 2016544± 3.9%43%**49%**—6%
Monmouth UniversityOctober 11–13, 2016402± 4.9%42%**48%**6%4%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Young)October 9–11, 2016609± 4.0%**40%**39%8%13%
The Times-Picayune/LucidOctober 7–10, 20161,123± 3.0%43%**46%**—11%
WTHR/HoweyOctober 3–5, 2016600± 4.0%41%**42%**8%9%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Young)October 3, 2016––38%**42%**7%13%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Young)September 21, 2016––39%**44%**9%8%
WTHR/HoweySeptember 6–8, 2016600± 4.0%40%**44%**5%11%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Young)September 1, 2016––35%**44%**6%15%
Garin-Hart-Yang (D-Bayh)August 15–18, 2016801± 3.5%39%**55%**—6%
Monmouth UniversityAugust 13–16, 2016403± 4.9%41%**48%**4%7%
Global Strategy Group (D-SMP)August 10–14, 2016801± 3.5%36%**54%**—10%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Young)August 8, 2016––35%**48%**7%10%
Expedition Strategies (R-Gregg)August 1–3, 2016600± 4.0%32%**58%**—9%
Garin-Hart-Yang (D-DSCC)July 12–14, 2016602± 4.1%33%**54%**—13%

with Baron Hill

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorTodd
Young (R)Baron
Hill (D)Undecided
Bellwether ResearchMay 11–15, 2016600± 4.0%**36%**22%30%
WTHR/HoweyApril 18–21, 2016500± 4.3%**48%**30%22%

with Marlin Stutzman

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorMarlin
Stutzman (R)Baron
Hill (D)Undecided
WTHR/HoweyApril 18–21, 2016500± 4.0%**39%**36%25%

Results

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

  • Porter (largest city: Portage)
  • St. Joseph (largest city: South Bend)

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

  • Vermillion (largest city: Clinton)
  • Sullivan (largest city: Sullivan)

By congressional district

Young won seven of nine congressional districts.

DistrictYoungBayhRepresentative
38%**58%**Pete Visclosky
**53%**41%Jackie Walorski
**59%**35%Marlin Stutzman
**59%**35%Todd Rokita
**53%**42%Susan Brooks
**61%**34%Luke Messer
35%**59%**André Carson
**53%**42%Larry Bucshon
**56%**39%Todd Young

References

References

  1. Joseph, Cameron. (March 24, 2015). "Coats retirement in Indiana shakes up 2016 battle for Senate". [[The Hill (newspaper).
  2. Maureen Groppe. (July 12, 2016). "Few former senators have done what Bayh might do". IndyStar.
  3. Bradner, Eric. (December 8, 2012). "Coats preparing for re-election in 2016 » Evansville Courier & Press". Courierpress.com.
  4. Francisco, Brian. (November 2, 2011). "Coats gets head start on 2016". Journal Gazette.
  5. (March 4, 2014). "Tully: Dan Coats weighing another term in Senate". IndyStar.com.
  6. Cahn, Emily. (May 9, 2015). "Marlin Stutzman Leaving House to Run for Senate". Roll Call.
  7. Francisco, Brian. (August 18, 2015). "Candidate fields growing quietly". Journal Gazette.
  8. "May 3, 2016 Primary Election Candidates". Indiana Secretary of State Election Division.
  9. (February 8, 2016). "Eric Holcomb drops out of Indiana senate race". [[WRTV]].
  10. Francisco, Brian. (May 11, 2015). "Banks set for Congress run". [[The Journal Gazette]].
  11. (March 24, 2015). "Coats decision sets off 2016 Senate mad scramble". Howey Politics.
  12. Sullivan, Sean. (March 24, 2015). "Cross Rep. Larry Bucshon's name off the list of possible GOP candidates for the Indiana Senate race. He tells me he is not interested.". Twitter.
  13. (April 21, 2015). "TBangert: Governor run for Purdue's Mitch Daniels? 'Nope'". [[The Indianapolis Star]].
  14. Raju, Manu. (March 25, 2015). "Dick Lugar won't be making a comeback, declines to run for Coats' seat in #INSEN, per @kyledcheney". Twitter.
  15. Howey, Brian. (May 26, 2015). "A fascinating U.S. Senate race is setting up". [[News and Tribune]].
  16. Helms, Aubrey. (August 4, 2015). "Young locking in fundraising advantage for U.S. Senate race". The Statehouse File.
  17. (July 15, 2016). "Donald Trump selects Mike Pence as VP". CNN.
  18. Carden, Dan. (June 10, 2015). "Rokita opts out of U.S. Senate race". [[The Times of Northwest Indiana]].
  19. Francisco, Brian. (January 17, 2016). "GOP Senate hopefuls aim right". [[The Journal Gazette]].
  20. Francisco, Brian. (March 22, 2016). "FreedomWorks endorses Stutzman in Senate race". [[The Journal Gazette]].
  21. [https://web.archive.org/web/20160508133335/http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/NEWS/NBC%20NewsWSJMarist.pdf NBC/WSJ/Marist]
  22. [http://www.journalgazette.net/news/local/indiana/Young--Cruz-favored-by-Hoosier-Republicans-in-IPFW-poll-12818419 IPFW/Downs Center]
  23. [http://www.howeypolitics.com/Content/Default/Lead-Story/Article/WTHR-Howey-Politics-INSen-Poll-Young-leads-Stutzman-43-31-/-3/346/13782 WTHR/Howey]
  24. "Indiana Primary Election, May 3, 2016". Indiana Secretary of State.
  25. Lewis, Olivia. (August 15, 2015). "Dickerson kicks off campaign for U.S. Senate seat". [[The Indianapolis Star]].
  26. (January 21, 2016). "John Dickerson Drops Out of Race For U.S. Senate". wfyi Indianapolis.
  27. (25 June 2015). "Gov. Pence prepares to pick a fight". Howey Politics Indiana.
  28. (March 24, 2015). "Coats Retirement Sparks Hoosier State Free-for-All". [[Roll Call]].
  29. Livingston, Abby. (June 19, 2013). "Ambitious Hoosiers Wait for Future Statewide Races Farm Team". Roll Call.
  30. Bruggeman, Karyn. (March 8, 2015). "Mike Pence and Indiana's Deep Freeze". [[National Journal]].
  31. Smith, Brandon. (May 25, 2016). "John Gregg Announces Rep. Christina Hale As Running Mate". WFIU.
  32. Howey, Brian. (September 10, 2015). "U.S. Senate race: McDermott considers". Howey Politics.
  33. Joseph, Cameron. (March 24, 2015). "GOP braces for free-for-all in Indiana". [[The Hill (newspaper).
  34. Turner, Kris. (June 4, 2015). "Glenda Ritz calls education 'catalyst for improvement' in run for governor". [[The Indianapolis Star]].
  35. Tester, Jon. (March 8, 2016). "DSCC Endorses Baron Hill in Indiana Senate Race". [[Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee]].
  36. (July 11, 2016). "Baron Hill withdraws from U.S. Senate race; Evan Bayh to enter race". WTHR.
  37. Tom LoBianco. (July 11, 2016). "First on CNN: Evan Bayh mounting Senate return". CNN.
  38. Tom LoBianco. (July 13, 2016). "Bayh announces Senate bid, puts Indiana seat in play". CNN.
  39. (July 12, 2016). "Bob Kern Senate filing". Indiana Secretary of State.
  40. [https://www.c-span.org/video/?417084-1/indiana-senate-debate Full debate]
  41. Rucker, Philip. (October 23, 2016). "Clinton infuses cash into Senate, gubernatorial races, including Indiana and Missouri". [[Chicago Tribune]].
  42. Roberts, Kelly. (October 26, 2016). "Mayor Tom Henry campaigns for Evan Bayh". [[WANE-TV]].
  43. (July 12, 2016). "Daily News Bin endorses Democrat Evan Bayh in 2016 Senate race in Indiana". Daily News Bin.
  44. Shella, Jim. (September 8, 2016). "UAW endorses Bayh, attacks Young". [[WISH-TV]].
  45. (October 23, 2016). "Bayh best for Indiana, Senate". [[The Journal Gazette]].
  46. (October 30, 2016). "Endorsements: A tough choice for U.S. Senate but Bayh is sensible pick for Indiana". [[South Bend Tribune]].
  47. Schneider, Chelsea. "Bush campaigns for Todd Young in Indy, Elkhart".
  48. (October 27, 2016). "Tom Cotton campaigns with Todd Young". tomcotton.com.
  49. Roberts, Kelly. (November 5, 2016). "Senator Ted Cruz makes final push for Todd Young". [[WANE-TV]].
  50. [[Republican Party of Indiana]]. (November 1, 2016). "I work with @ToddYoung closely- he's one of the most hardworking men in Congress. He's a servant leader.- @PRyan". [[Twitter]].
  51. (June 2015). "Hubbard, Kittle Back Rep. Young to Get in Senate Race".
  52. Fiorina, Carly. (October 27, 2016). "Why Indiana needs a conservative fighter like @ToddYoungIN in the U.S. Senate: facebook.com/CarlyFiorina/p...". [[Twitter]].
  53. "ACU Endorses Todd Young". American Conservative Union.
  54. "NRA-PVF - Grades - Indiana".
  55. DeFreeuw, Eric. (September 21, 2016). "NRA ad takes aim at Bayh's gun control voting record". [[WPTA]].
  56. Shella, Jim. (March 30, 2016). "Todd Young wins business endorsements". [[WISH-TV]].
  57. (October 22, 2016). "Editorial: Todd Young is best choice for Senate". [[The Indianapolis Star]].
  58. "Endorsements". toddyoung.org.
  59. "2016 Senate Race Ratings for November 2, 2016".
  60. "2016 Senate".
  61. "2016 Senate Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report.
  62. "Daily Kos Election 2016 forecast: The final version".
  63. "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics.
  64. [https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArc1RLTFJqQ3JhTTA/view SurveyMonkey]
  65. [https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArcEwxQXh2M25qSFE/view SurveyMonkey]
  66. [http://www.wthr.com/article/exclusive-wthrhpi-poll-young-pulls-ahead-of-bayh-in-senate-race WTHR/Howey]
  67. [https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kAreE9xVzhyUUNZNGc/view SurveyMonkey]
  68. [https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArd1o5cmhoTmVQbDg/view SurveyMonkey]
  69. [https://www.scribd.com/document/330017282/Final-Indiana-Poll Gravis Marketing]
  70. [https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArcTNEc0hBTzFlSVE/view SurveyMonkey]
  71. [https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kAraEFpRXdFc21TVG8/view SurveyMonkey]
  72. [https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_IN_103116/ Monmouth University]
  73. [http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/current-indiana-polling-2/ Gravis Marketing]
  74. [http://wishtv.com/2016/10/18/wish-tvball-state-hoosier-survey-shows-bayh-leading-senate-race/ WISH/Ball State Hoosier Survey]
  75. [http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_IN_101416/ Monmouth University]
  76. [https://web.archive.org/web/20161018224128/http://www.toddyoung.org/sites/default/files/%28IN%20Sen%29%20October%202016%20Polling%20Memo.pdf Public Opinion Strategies (R-Young)]
  77. [https://web.archive.org/web/20161022030935/http://luc.id/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Indiana-Results.pdf The Times-Picayune/Lucid]
  78. [http://www.wthr.com/article/exclusive-wthrhpi-poll-bayh-young-senate-battle-a-dead-heat WTHR/Howey]
  79. Date of polling memo, not field dates, which remain unreleased
  80. [http://www.wthr.com/article/exclusive-wthrhpi-poll-bayh-young-locked-in-close-senate-race WTHR/Howey] {{Webarchive. link. (October 16, 2016)
  81. [https://static.politico.com/ce/39/ca8c6532413a9a0c5dad0be9f5a0/bayhinternal.pdf Garin-Hart-Yang (D-Bayh)]
  82. [http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_IN_081716/ Monmouth University]
  83. [http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/democratic-poll-bayh-still-big Global Strategy Group (D-SMP)]
  84. [http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/aug/11/evan-bayh-boosts-democrat-hopes-for-retaking-senat/ Expedition Strategies (R-Gregg)]
  85. [http://www.dscc.org/press-release/new-poll-finds-evan-bayh-leading-congressman-todd-young-21-points-potential-grow-support/ Garin-Hart-Yang (D-DSCC)]
  86. [http://www.nwitimes.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/elections/2016-election/poll-finds-pence-re-election-not-a-sure-bet/article_7841354c-023a-50e6-9e09-9a4bd9e567c8.html Bellwether Research]
  87. "Indiana General Election, November 8, 2016". Indiana Secretary of State.
  88. "DRA 2020".
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