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2015 Queensland state election

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FieldValue
election_name2015 Queensland state election
countryQueensland
typeparliamentary
ongoingno
previous_election2012 Queensland state election
previous_year2012
next_election2017 Queensland state election
next_year2017
seats_for_electionAll 89 seats in the Legislative Assembly of Queensland
45 Assembly seats were needed for a majority
turnout89.89 ( 1.11 pp)
election_date31 January 2015
opinion_polls#Opinion polling
image1[[File:Annastacia Palaszczuk 2016 (crop).jpgx160px]]
leader1Annastacia Palaszczuk
leader_since1
party1Australian Labor Party (Queensland Branch)
leaders_seat1Inala
popular_vote1983,054
percentage137.47%
swing110.81
last_election17 seats, 26.66%
seats_before19
seats1**44**
seat_change135
image2[[File:Campbell Newman being interviewed (cropped).jpgx160px]]
leader2Campbell Newman
leader_since2
party2Liberal National Party of Queensland
leaders_seat2Ashgrove
*(lost seat)*
popular_vote2**1,084,060**
percentage2**41.32%**
swing28.33
last_election278 seats, 49.66%
seats_before273
seats242
seat_change231
image3**KAP**
colour3B20000
leader3Ray Hopper
leader_since3
party3Katter's Australian Party
leaders_seat3Condamine
*(lost Nanango)*
popular_vote350,588
percentage31.93%
swing39.61
last_election32 seats, 11.53%
seats_before33
seats32
seat_change31
1blankTPP
1data1**51.1%**
1data248.9%
2blankTPP swing
2data114.0
2data214.0
map_image2015 Queensland state election.svg
map_size400px
map_captionWinning margin by electorate.
titlePremier
before_electionCampbell Newman
before_partyLiberal National Party of Queensland
posttitlePremier after election
after_electionAnnastacia Palaszczuk
after_partyAustralian Labor Party (Queensland Branch)

45 Assembly seats were needed for a majority

(lost seat)

(lost Nanango)

The 2015 Queensland state election was held on 31 January 2015 to elect all 89 members of the unicameral Legislative Assembly of Queensland.

The centre-right Liberal National Party (LNP), led by Premier Campbell Newman, attempted to win a second term but was defeated by the opposition centre-left Australian Labor Party (ALP), led by Opposition Leader Annastacia Palaszczuk. Labor formed a minority government with the support of the lone independent MP in the chamber, Peter Wellington. It is only the seventh change of government in Queensland since 1915, and only the third time since 1932 that a sitting government in the state has failed to win a second term. Furthermore, Annastacia Palaszczuk became the first woman to win government from opposition in a state election (eventual Chief Minister Clare Martin led the Labor Party to victory from opposition in 2001 at an election in the Northern Territory).

The previous election saw Labor, which had governed the state for all but two years since 1989, suffer the worst defeat of a sitting government in the state's history. The LNP won 78 seats—the largest majority government in Queensland history—compared to seven for Labor, two for Katter's Australian Party, and two won by independents. Following Labor's defeat former Premier Anna Bligh retired from politics and was succeeded as party leader by her former Transport Minister, Palaszczuk. Months later, Ray Hopper left the LNP to lead Katter's Australian Party while two further LNP MPs became independents, resulting in a total of 75 LNP seats, seven Labor seats, three Katter seats and four independent seats. Two by-elections saw Labor defeat the LNP, reducing the LNP to 73 seats with Labor on 9 seats. Although Labor hoped to regain much of what it lost in its severe defeat of three years earlier, most polls pointed to the LNP being returned for another term with a reduced majority.

On election night, the outcome of the election was inconclusive, though most political analysts projected that the LNP had lost its majority after suffering what ended up being a record 14-point two-party swing. Newman was defeated in his seat of Ashgrove to his predecessor, Kate Jones—only the second time since Federation that a sitting Queensland premier has lost their own seat. With the outcome in his own seat beyond doubt, Newman announced his retirement from politics, though remained as caretaker premier pending the final results. According to projections from both ABC News and Brisbane's The Courier-Mail, Labor had taken at least 30 seats from the LNP, and was very close to picking up the 36-seat swing it needed to form government in its own right—a feat initially thought impossible when the writs were issued. On the day after the election, both outlets had Labor either two or three seats short of a majority. Political analysts opined that the balance of power was likely to rest with Katter's Australian Party and independent Wellington.

Wellington announced on 5 February he would support a Palaszczuk-led Labor minority government on confidence and supply while retaining the right to vote on conscience. On 13 February, the Electoral Commission of Queensland declared the results of the election. Labor won 44 seats, one short of a majority, putting Labor in a position to form a minority government in the hung parliament. Even allowing for the LNP's previously overwhelming majority, the 37-seat swing is the second-largest shift of seats against a sitting government in Queensland since Federation, only exceeded by the 44-seat shift against Labor in 2012. Conversely, the two-party swing of 13.7 points in 2012 was exceeded by the 2015 two-party swing of 14.0 points.

Palaszczuk approached Governor Paul de Jersey on 11 February and advised him that she could form a minority government. Palaszczuk and de Jersey met again on 13 February. At that meeting, de Jersey formally invited Palaszczuk to form a government, an invitation that Palaszczuk accepted. On 14 February, Palaszczuk was sworn in as the 39th Premier of Queensland.

Background

The last state election to be held was the 2012 Queensland state election where the Australian Labor Party led by Premier Anna Bligh attempted to win a second term as Premier in her own right and a third term overall and a sixth consecutive term in office. Opposing her was the Liberal National Party led by Campbell Newman. The election was the second for Bligh who had succeeded Peter Beattie as Premier in 2007. Newman was the former Lord Mayor of Brisbane from 2004 to 2011, having resigned the position to run for Premier.

As Newman did not have a seat in state parliament, he chose to contest preselection in the seat of Ashgrove for the 2012 election, and lead the party from outside of parliament until the election. Jeff Seeney served as Opposition Leader in the parliament.

The Labor Party went into the election with a modest margin with 51 seats, while the Liberal National Party had 32 seats. Labor was defeated in an historic landslide, the LNP winning 78 seats to just seven for Labor, with Newman winning Ashgrove from the former Environment Minister, Kate Jones.

Aidan McLindon, the parliamentary leader of the Katter's Australia Party, lost his seat of Beaudesert, but the KAP won two seats. Only two of the independent members were re-elected.

Three by-elections occurred after the 2012 state election. Labor candidate Yvette D'Ath won the 2014 Redcliffe by-election in February, and Labor candidate Anthony Lynham won the 2014 Stafford by-election in July. Jackie Trad held Bligh's former seat of South Brisbane of Labor in an April 2012 by-election, following Bligh's resignation from parliament.

On 5 January 2015, media organisations reported that Newman intended to announce the election date the next day. On 6 January, Newman confirmed on Twitter that he had visited acting governor Tim Carmody and writs had been issued for an election on 31 January. This was the first time in over a century that an Australian general election was held in January. The last January election was held in Tasmania in 1913 and the last on the mainland was the New South Wales colonial election of 1874–75.

The election was held on the same day as the 2015 Davenport state by-election in South Australia.

Key dates

DateEvent
6 January 2015Writ of election issued by the acting Governor
10 January 2015Close of electoral rolls
13 January 2015Close of nominations
31 January 2015Polling day, between the hours of 8am and 6pm
10 February 2015Cut off for the return of postal ballot papers
13 February 2015Election results declared, Annastacia Palaszczuk is asked to form government
14 February 2015Interim Palaszczuk Ministry is sworn in
16 February 2015Full Palaszczuk Ministry sworn in
16 February 2015Writ returned and results formally declared
24 March 201555th Parliament convened

Retiring members

Labor

  • Tim Mulherin (Mackay) – Announced 9 January 2015
  • Desley Scott (Woodridge) – Announced 11 March 2014

Liberal National

  • Peter Dowling (Redlands) – Lost preselection 25 October 2014
  • Bruce Flegg (Moggill) – Lost preselection 7 December 2014
  • David Gibson (Gympie) – Announced 2 May 2014
  • Howard Hobbs (Warrego) – Announced 5 September 2014
  • Vaughan Johnson (Gregory) – Announced 2 October 2014
  • Ted Malone (Mirani) – Announced 26 September 2014
  • Rosemary Menkens (Burdekin) – Announced 19 September 2014

Independent

  • Liz Cunningham (Gladstone) – Announced 6 January 2015

Results

Seats changing hands

YeerongpillyLiberal NationalCarl Judge11.44**−14.74**13.30Mark BaileyLabor
  • Members listed in italics did not contest their seat at this election.
  • 1 Carl Judge was elected as a member of the Liberal National Party, but resigned and contested the election as an Independent.
  • The Liberal National Party also retained the seat of Condamine, where the sitting member had resigned from the Liberal National Party, but contested Nanango as a member of Katter's Australian Party.
  • The Liberal National Party also retained the seat of Gaven, where the sitting member had resigned from the Liberal National Party and contested the election as an Independent.

Post-election pendulum

Subsequent changes

  • On 31 March 2015, Billy Gordon (Cook) was expelled from the Labor Party and sat as an Independent.
  • On 8 March 2016, Rob Pyne (Cairns) resigned from the Labor Party and sat as an Independent.
  • On 29 April 2016, John McVeigh (Toowoomba South) resigned. At the by-election on 16 July 2016, David Janetzki retained the seat for the Liberal National Party.
  • On 14 January 2017, Steve Dickson (Buderim) resigned from the Liberal National Party and joined the One Nation Party.
  • On 29 October 2017, Rick Williams (Pumicestone) resigned from the Labor Party and sat as an Independent.

Aftermath

Labor regained power mainly on the strength of recovering much of what it had lost in Brisbane at the 2012 election. Brisbane had been Labor's power base for more than a quarter-century; Labor had gone into the 2012 election holding 36 of the capital's 40 seats, losing all but three at the election. In 2015, however, Labor won 28 seats in Brisbane. The LNP was still in a position to hope for a minority government primarily by sweeping the Gold Coast, albeit in most cases by somewhat smaller margins than in 2012.

Although Queensland is Australia's least centralised state, since the abolition of the Bjelkemander it has been extremely difficult to form even a minority government without a strong base in Brisbane. The 2015 election underscored this. None of the LNP's safe seats (greater than 10 percent 2PP) were located in Brisbane. The LNP's safest seat, Moggill, only had a majority of 8.2 percent, putting it on the strong side of fairly safe. In contrast, all but two of Labor's safe seats were in the capital.

Following the election, the Palmer United Party candidate for Ferny Grove, Mark Taverner, was revealed to be an undischarged bankrupt and was therefore ineligible to run. The revelation spurred speculation that there may need to be a by-election to resolve the seat. The Electoral Commission of Queensland initially released a statement on 8 February saying that it would declare the seat, and then refer the issue to the Supreme Court of Queensland sitting as the Court of Disputed Returns. The statement raised a by-election as a possible outcome.

Lawrence Springborg, who succeeded Newman as LNP leader on 7 February, called for the caretaker government to continue until after a possible Ferny Grove by-election is held, citing both the uncertainty of a hung parliament and doubt over the status of Ferny Grove. Conversely, ABC election analyst Antony Green believed that the Ferny Grove outcome and possible by-election would not affect who forms government. Professor Graeme Orr, an electoral law expert at University of Queensland, labelled the prospect of the LNP maintaining a caretaker government until a possible by-election analogous to a "constitutional coup". Orr also reasoned that the law and facts were against a Ferny Grove by-election. The Electoral Commission of Queensland declared Ferny Grove had been won by the Labor candidate Mark Furner over LNP incumbent Dale Shuttleworth on 11 February, signalling that it would soon refer the matter to the Court of Disputed Returns. Green analysed the Ferny Grove tally and concluded that Taverner did not have an effect on the outcome of the election. Specifically, Green concluded that at most, 353 of Taverner's ballot papers had exhausted. However, Furner would have still won even if all of those votes had gone to Shuttleworth had Taverner not been on the ballot. To Green's mind, this made it extremely difficult to argue that exhausted preferences alone would be enough to demand a by-election in Ferny Grove.

On 13 February the Electoral Commission of Queensland stated that, based on legal advice, they would not be referring the Ferny Grove result to the Court of Disputed Returns. This formally cleared the way for a Labor minority government, and Governor Paul de Jersey invited Palaszczuk to form a government later that day. The LNP stated they were considering their legal options, with Springborg later releasing a statement where he "congratulate[d] incoming Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk and her government". On 16 February the LNP announced it would not be challenging the Ferny Grove result.

Retiring MPs

Main article: Candidates of the 2015 Queensland state election

Members who were deselected or who chose not to renominate were as follows:

Labor

  • Tim Mulherin (Mackay) – announced 9 January 2015
  • Desley Scott (Woodridge) – announced 11 March 2014

LNP

  • Peter Dowling (Redlands) – deselected 25 October 2014
  • Bruce Flegg (Moggill) – deselected 7 December 2014
  • David Gibson (Gympie) – announced 2 May 2014
  • Howard Hobbs (Warrego) – announced 5 September 2014
  • Vaughan Johnson (Gregory) – announced 2 October 2014
  • Ted Malone (Mirani) – announced 26 September 2014
  • Rosemary Menkens (Burdekin) – announced 19 September 2014

Independent

  • Liz Cunningham (Gladstone) – announced 6 January 2015

Opinion polling

Primary vote opinion polling graph

Two-party preferred opinion polling graph

Voting intention

DateFirmPrimary vote2pp voteOTH**29 Jan 2015****29 Jan 2015**52%**29 Jan 2015****20 Jan 2015**52%**16–18 Jan 2015**50.5%7–8 Jan 201552%6–8 Jan 201553%6 Jan 201528 Nov 201451%21–24 Nov 201450.5%18–19 Nov 2014Oct–Dec 201424–27 Oct 201450.5%9 Oct 201451%26–29 Sept 201451%4 Sept 201451%12–14 Aug 201452%Jul–Sep 201454%7 Aug 201452%3 Jul 201451%5 Jun 201453%21–22 May 201455%Apr–Jun 201451%2 Apr 2014Jan–Mar 201452%Oct–Dec 201355%10 Jul 201323 May 2013Apr–Jun 201359%19 Apr 201323 Mar – 2 Apr 201320 Mar 201322 Feb 2013Jan–Mar 201362%18 Jan 201314 Dec 201223 Nov 2012Oct–Dec 201256%12 Oct 201214 Sept 201217 Aug 201210/11 Jul & 7/8, 14/15 Aug 201259%2 Jul 2012Jul–Sep 201260%5/6 & 12/13 June 201262%62.8%20–22 Mar 201260.8%20–21 Mar 201262%
**31 Jan 2015****[Election](2025-australian-federal-election)**41.3%37.5%8.4%5.1%1.9%5.7%48.9%**51.1%**
Essential39%38%7%5%2%9%**50%****50%**
Newspoll41%37%6%3%2%11%48%
Galaxy38%39%10%5%2%10%46%**54%**
ReachTEL42%36.7%8.4%5.2%7.6%48%
Roy Morgan39.5%37%10%4%3.5%6%49.5%
Galaxy41%38%8%3%3%7%48%
Newspoll42%37%7%1%1%12%47%
ReachTEL40.3%38.1%7.6%6.3%7.7%**50%****50%**
ReachTEL39.2%37.3%7.9%6.5%9.1%49%
Roy Morgan39%36.5%9.5%4%3.5%7.5%49.5%
Galaxy37%38%9%7%3%6%**50%****50%**
Newspoll37%36%10%1%16%**50%****50%**
Roy Morgan38.5%38%10%6%2%5.5%49.5%
ReachTEL40.9%36.6%7.6%7.2%7.7%49%
Roy Morgan42%35.5%9%6.5%2.5%4.5%49%
ReachTEL41.2%36%6%9.5%7.2%49%
Galaxy39%36%7%12%3%3%48%
Newspoll39%32%10%1%18%46%
ReachTEL41%34.4%5.5%12.6%6.5%48%
ReachTEL38.7%34.4%6.1%15.4%5.4%49%
ReachTEL40.9%34.1%5.2%13.6%6.3%47%
Galaxy43%34%8%5%10%45%
Newspoll32%34%8%2%24%49%
ReachTEL39.1%35.1%7.3%8.0%3.3%3.0%——
Newspoll40%36%8%1%15%48%
Newspoll40%32%8%2%18%45%
ReachTEL43.3%37.0%5.1%4.5%5.7%4.4%——
ReachTEL44.6%28.2%9.0%10.4%7.8%——
Newspoll44%29%10%3%14%41%
ReachTEL45.1%29.2%7.7%12.7%5.4%——
ReachTEL45.8%30.4%8.2%9.9%5.6%——
ReachTEL47.8%30.2%8.0%10.1%3.9%——
ReachTEL47.1%28.9%7.9%11.5%4.5%——
Newspoll49%27%6%3%15%38%
ReachTEL42.5%34.9%8.4%10.5%3.6%——
ReachTEL41.9%32.1%8.2%12.1%5.7%——
ReachTEL42%34.2%9.5%8.9%5.4%——
Newspoll42%31%8%4%15%44%
ReachTEL44.6%30.5%7.5%11%6.4%——
ReachTEL44.7%34.7%7%9.4%4.1%——
ReachTEL44.2%31.6%9.2%9.6%5.4%——
Roy Morgan51%27.5%7.5%5%9%41%
ReachTEL56.5%21.8%9.4%7.4%4.8%——
Newspoll48%30%9%1%12%40%
Roy Morgan54.5%28%7.5%3.5%6.5%38%
28 Mar 2012Annastacia Palaszczuk elected as Leader of the Labor Party
**24 Mar 2012****[Election](2012-queensland-state-election)**49.7%26.7%7.5%—11.5%4.6%37.2%
Newspoll50%28%6%16%39.2%
Roy Morgan51%28%7.5%8.5%5%38%

Better Premier

Approval ratings

DateFirmBetter PremierNewmanPalaszczukNewmanPalaszczukSatisfiedDissatisfiedSatisfiedDissatisfied27–29 Jan 201516–18 Jan 20156–8 Jan 201521–24 Nov 2014Oct–Dec 201424–27 Oct 201426–29 Sept 2014Jul–Sep 2014Apr–Jun 2014Jan–Mar 2014Oct–Dec 2013Apr–Jun 2013Jan–Mar 2013Oct–Dec 201210/11 Jul & 7/8, 14/15 Aug 2012Jul–Sep 20125/6 & 12/13 June 201228 March 2012 Palaszczuk replaces BlighNewmanBlighNewmanBligh[24 Mar 2012 election](2012-queensland-state-election)20–22 Mar 201220–21 Mar 2012
Newspoll43%42%35%58%38%40%
Roy Morgan48.5%51.5%*not asked*
Newspoll42%38%41%51%38%38%
Roy Morgan47.5%52.5%*not asked*
Newspoll44%35%38%51%38%34%
Roy Morgan47.5%52.5%*not asked*
Roy Morgan50%50%*not asked*
Newspoll41%35%35%54%36%36%
Newspoll39%35%33%57%35%37%
Newspoll41%35%36%54%38%30%
Newspoll45%32%40%48%36%31%
Newspoll49%26%41%46%34%33%
Newspoll53%21%43%45%33%33%
Newspoll45%29%38%48%34%30%
Roy Morgan62.5%20.5%51%36%33%28.5%
Newspoll55%21%47%38%29%30%
Roy Morgan67.5%16%53%26.5%26.5%21%
––––––
Newspoll51%36%47%40%36%58%
date=22 March 2012title=The LNP Looks Set to Easily Win Saturday's Queensland State Election with Former Brisbane Lord Mayor Campbell Newman Elected Premierurl=http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/finding-4756-201302130055url-status=livearchive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150411053809/http://roymorgan.com/findings/finding-4756-201302130055archive-date=11 April 2015access-date=11 January 2015website=Roy Morgan Research}}48%35%53%34.5%38.5%53.5%
* Remainder were "uncommitted" or "other/neither".
Newspoll polling is published in *The Australian* and sourced from [here](http://polling.newspoll.com.au/cgi-bin/polling/display_poll_data.pl?url_caller=trend&mode=trend&page=show_polls&question_set_id=13)

Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian is conducted via random telephone number selection in city and country areas. Sampling sizes usually consist of around 1100–1200 electors. The declared margin of error is ±3 percentage points. Main article: Opinion polling for the 2015 Queensland state election

Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian is conducted via random telephone number selection in city and country areas. Sampling sizes usually consist of around 1100–1200 electors. The declared margin of error is ±3 percentage points.

Notes

References

References

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  77. (22 March 2012). "The LNP Looks Set to Easily Win Saturday's Queensland State Election with Former Brisbane Lord Mayor Campbell Newman Elected Premier".
Info: Wikipedia Source

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