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2015 Louisiana gubernatorial election

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2015 Louisiana gubernatorial election

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FieldValue
election_name2015 Louisiana gubernatorial election
countryLouisiana
typepresidential
ongoingno
previous_election2011 Louisiana gubernatorial election
previous_year2011
election_dateOctober 24, 2015 (first round)
November 21, 2015 (runoff)
next_election2019 Louisiana gubernatorial election
next_year2019
1blankFirst round
2blankRunoff
image1File:John Bel Edwards (cropped).jpg
nominee1**John Bel Edwards**
party1Democratic Party (United States)
1data1**444,517
39.89%**
2data1**646,924
56.11%**
image2File:DVitterOfficial.jpg
nominee2David Vitter
party2Republican Party (United States)
1data2**256,300
23.00%**
2data2505,940
43.89%
image4Scott Angelle official photo (cropped).jpg
candidate4Scott Angelle
party4Republican Party (United States)
1data4214,982
19.29%
2data4*Eliminated*
image5Jay Dardenne Feb 2013.jpg
candidate5Jay Dardenne
party5Republican Party (United States)
1data5166,656
14.96%
2data5*Eliminated*
map
turnout39.2% (first round)
40.2% (runoff)
titleGovernor
before_electionBobby Jindal
before_partyRepublican Party (United States)
after_electionJohn Bel Edwards
after_partyDemocratic Party (United States)

November 21, 2015 (runoff) 39.89%** 56.11%** 23.00%** 43.89% 19.29% 14.96% 40.2% (runoff) The 2015 Louisiana gubernatorial election was held on November 21, 2015, to elect the governor of Louisiana. Incumbent Republican governor Bobby Jindal was not eligible to run for re-election to a third term because of term limits established by the Louisiana Constitution.

Under Louisiana's jungle primary system, all candidates appeared on the same ballot, regardless of party and voters may vote for any candidate regardless of their party affiliation. As no candidate received a majority of the vote during the primary election on October 24, 2015, a runoff election was held on November 21, 2015, between the top two candidates in the primary. Louisiana is the only state that has a jungle primary system (California and Washington have a similar "top two primary" system).

The runoff election featured Democrat John Bel Edwards, Minority Leader of the Louisiana House of Representatives, and Republican U.S. senator David Vitter, as they were the top two vote getters in the primary. Lieutenant Governor Jay Dardenne and Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle, both Republicans, were eliminated in the jungle primary.

In the November 21, 2015 runoff, Edwards defeated Vitter by a count of 56.11% to 43.89% and was sworn in on January 11, 2016. This was the only statewide victory in 2015 for Democrats in Louisiana, and was the first time Democrats won a statewide election in the state since Mary Landrieu won her third term in the U.S. Senate in 2008. Edward’s victory also came one year after national wins for the Republican Party in congressional and state elections, including Landrieu’s failed 2014 re-election bid. This was the first election since 1968 that a Democratic candidate for governor won during a Democratic presidency. The election was one of the most expensive in state history, with over $50 million spent by the candidates and outside groups.

Candidates

Republican Party

Filed

  • Scott Angelle, Public Service Commissioner and former lieutenant governor of Louisiana
  • Jay Dardenne, Lieutenant Governor of Louisiana
  • David Vitter, U.S. senator

Declined

  • John Neely Kennedy, Louisiana State Treasurer (running for re-election)
  • Newell Normand, Sheriff of Jefferson Parish (endorsed Dardenne)
  • Michael G. Strain, Commissioner of Agriculture and Forestry (running for re-election)
  • Rodney Alexander, former secretary of the Louisiana Department of Veterans Affairs and former U.S. representative
  • Burl Cain, Warden of the Louisiana State Penitentiary
  • Gerald Long, state senator
  • Buddy Roemer, former governor, former U.S. representative and candidate for president in 2012

Democratic Party

Filed

  • John Bel Edwards, Minority Leader of the Louisiana House of Representatives
  • Cary Deaton, candidate for governor in 2011
  • SL Simpson

Declined

  • Mary Landrieu, former U.S. senator, state treasurer and candidate for governor in 1995
  • Mitch Landrieu, Mayor of New Orleans and former lieutenant governor of Louisiana
  • John Georges, Businessman and independent candidate for governor in 2007
  • Jason Williams, New Orleans City Council President
  • Tony Clayton, prosecutor of the 18th Judicial District Court, member of the Southern University system board
  • James Bernhard, businessman
  • Foster Campbell, Public Service Commissioner, former state senator and candidate for governor in 2007

Ineligible

  • Edwin Edwards, former governor, U.S. representative and state senator (ineligible due to 2000 felony convictions for bribery and racketeering)

Independents

Filed

  • Beryl Billiot, restaurant owner and former Marine
  • Jeremy Odom, minister
  • Eric Paul Orgeron

Declined

  • Melvin Slack, candidate for Mayor of Shreveport in 2014
  • Russel L. Honoré, retired lieutenant general and former commander of Joint Task Force Katrina

Endorsements

Organizations

  • Terrebonne Republican Party
  • Republican Party of East Baton Rouge Parish
  • Livingston Parish Republican Party Publishers
  • Greater Baton Rouge Business Report
  • The Hayride, Louisiana Conservative Political Commentary Site Public Figures
  • Ali Landry, former Miss USA Politicians
  • Paul Hardy, 48th lieutenant governor of Louisiana
  • Fred Mills, Louisiana state senator
  • Guy Cormier, St. Martin Parish President

Politicians

  • Newell Normand, Sheriff of Jefferson Parish

Organizations

  • Louisiana AFL–CIO
  • Louisiana Democratic State Central Committee
  • Louisiana Federation of Teachers
  • Louisiana Sheriff's Association
  • Louisiana State Troopers Association (endorsed during runoff campaign) Politicians
  • Barack Obama, President of the United States
  • Mitch Landrieu, Mayor of New Orleans
  • Jamie Mayo, Mayor of Monroe
  • Jay Dardenne, Lt. Governor of Louisiana and former candidate for governor (endorsed during runoff campaign) Newspapers
  • Gambit

Organizations

  • Gun Owners of America
  • Louisiana Association of Business and Industry (endorsed during runoff campaign) Politicians
  • Ralph Abraham, U.S. representative (R-LA)
  • Charles Boustany, U.S. representative (R-LA)
  • George H. W. Bush, 41st president of the United States
  • Jeb Bush, former governor of Florida and 2016 presidential candidate.
  • Bill Cassidy, U.S. senator (R-LA)
  • Chris Christie, Governor of New Jersey and 2016 presidential candidate.
  • Joey Durel, Lafayette City-Parish president
  • John Fleming, U.S. representative (R-LA)
  • John Neely Kennedy, Treasurer of Louisiana
  • Rand Paul, U.S. senator (R-KY) and 2016 presidential candidate.

Jungle primary

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin
of errorScott
Angelle (R)Jay
Dardenne (R)John Bel
Edwards (D)John
Kennedy (R)Mitch
Landrieu (D)David
Vitter (R)OtherUndecided
MarblePortLLCOctober 20–21, 20151464± 3%12.7%14.1%**40.5%**——**28.5%**—4.3%
MRIOctober 15–19, 2015600± ?%17%14%**36%**——**19%**2%12%
Harper Polling (R)October 16–17, 2015612± 3.9%14%14%**36%**——**26%**—9%
KPLC/Raycom MediaOctober 7–13, 2015602± 4%7%8%**24%**——**21%**—37%
The Advocate/WWL-TVSeptember 20–23, 2015800± 3.46%15%14%**24%**——**24%**—18%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 21–22, 2015616± 4%15%14%**28%**——**27%**—17%
Verne KennedyJuly 27–31, 2015600± 4%**25%**12%20%——**22%**—21%
MarblePortJune 17, 20151415± 2.6%11.1%10.4%**28.8%**——**34.1%**—15.6%
Verne KennedyMay 27–29, 2015700± 3.5%17%12%**29%**——**29%**—13%
SM&O ResearchMay 5, 2015600± 4.0%6%17%**25%**——**38%**—16%
MarblePortMarch 17, 20151,071± 2.99%7%14%**31%**——**34%**—14%
TriumphMarch 5, 20151,655± 2.4%7%15%**33%**——**35%**—11%
NSO Research*January 10–13, 2015600± 4%2%10%**20%**13%—**24%**—32%
SM&O ResearchDecember 9–11, 2014600± ?3.1%18.6%**25.7%**——**36.3%**—16.3%
SuffolkOctober 23–26, 2014500± 4%3%9.8%3.8%—**22.6%****31.6%**—**29.2%**
Multi-QuestOctober 22–24, 2014606± 4%2.3%**10.9%**4%——**25.9%**3.8%**53.1%**
SM&O ResearchApril 28–30, 2014600± ?3.8%10.5%5.5%11.7%**28.9%****28.9%**—10.6%
PSBApril 2014601± ?—14%**17%**8%—**18%**14%**29%**
MagellanMarch 24–26, 2014600± 4.1%—13.1%4.6%8.5%**26.4%****27.6%**—19.8%
[V](v)/C ResearchFebruary 20–25, 2014600± 4%—11%8%9%**33%****25%**—15%
Kitchens Group**February 10–12, 2014600± 4.2%—9%**21%**7%—**26%**—**38%**
WPAOR^November 12–14, 2013800± 3.5%—12%2%9%**20%****25%**11%11
—22%——**29%****35%**—14%
SM&O ResearchNovember 6–12, 2013600± 4%2.1%18%7.9%**18.9%**—**30.3%**—**22.9%**
MagellanOctober 2–4, 20122,862± 1.9%—6.5%—7.2%**29.4%****31.1%**9.1%16.7%
    • Internal poll for the John Kennedy campaign
  • ** Internal poll for the John Bel Edwards campaign
  • ^ Internal poll for the Jay Dardenne campaign

Results

Runoff

Campaign

Sign for John Bel Edwards

A debate between Edwards and Vitter was held on November 10 by Louisiana Public Broadcasting and the Council for a Better Louisiana.

Early voting was possible from November 7 until November 14. Despite having one fewer day due to Veterans Day, turnout was significantly higher compared to the primary election early voting, especially among black voters and in urban parishes.

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political ReportNovember 13, 2015
Rothenberg Political ReportNovember 6, 2015
Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 19, 2015
DKEOctober 29, 2015

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorDavid
Vitter (R)John Bel
Edwards (D)Undecided
JMC AnalyticsNovember 19, 2015614± 3.9%43%**47%**10%
RRH ElectionsNovember 12–16, 2015359± 5%42%**48%**10%
JMC AnalyticsNovember 14–16, 2015635± 3.9%35%**51%**13%
JMC AnalyticsNovember 14–16, 2015635± 4%38%**54%**8%
Market Research InsightNovember 11–14, 2015600± 4%38%**53%**9%
Hayride/MarblePortNovember 11, 2015978± 3.1%42%**48%**10%
Market Research InsightNovember 11, 2015600± 4%38%**52%**10%
UNO Survey Research CenterNovember 2–8, 2015600± 4%34%**56%**10%
Triumph CampaignsNovember 5, 20151,818± 3%41%**49%**10%
WVLA/JMC AnalyticsOctober 28–31, 2015600± 4%32%**52%**16%
Market Research InsightOctober 27–28, 2015600± 4.1%38%**54%**8%
Anzalone Liszt GroveOctober 26–28, 2015700± 3.7%40%**52%**7%
KPLC/Raycom MediaOctober 7–13, 2015602± 4%33%**52%**?%
The Advocate/WWL-TVSeptember 20–23, 2015800± 3.46%41%**45%**?%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 21–22, 2015616± 4%38%**50%**12%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 25–28, 20141,141± 2.9%**50%**32%18%
Public Policy PollingJune 26–29, 2014664± 3.8%**52%**30%17%
The Kitchen Group*February 10–12, 2014600± 4.2%**38%**32%31%
Public Policy PollingFebruary 6–9, 2014635± 3.9%**51%**30%19%

*Internal poll for the John Bel Edwards campaign

Dardenne vs. Landrieu

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorJay
Dardenne (R)Mitch
Landrieu (D)Undecided
Public Policy PollingSeptember 25–28, 20141,141± 2.9%**43%**39%18%
Public Policy PollingJune 26–29, 2014664± 3.8%**43%****43%**15%
Public Policy PollingFebruary 6–9, 2014635± 3.9%**46%**36%18%
Public Policy PollingAugust 16–19, 2013721± 3.6%35%**45%**20%
Public Policy PollingFebruary 8–12, 2013603± 4%42%**44%**15%

Duke vs. Edwards

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorDavid
Duke (R)Edwin
Edwards (D)Undecided
Public Policy PollingFebruary 8–12, 2013603± 4%15%**62%**23%

Vitter vs. Landrieu

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorDavid
Vitter (R)Mitch
Landrieu (D)Undecided
SM&O ResearchApril 28–30, 2014600± ?**52.8%**41.8%5.5%
Gravis MarketingNovember 12–14, 2014643± 4%**54%**36%10%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 25–28, 20141,141± 2.9%**47%**38%14%
Gravis MarketingSeptember 5–9, 2014426± 5%**46%**44%11%
Public Policy PollingJune 26–29, 2014664± 3.8%**48%**44%8%
Public Policy PollingFebruary 6–9, 2014635± 3.9%**50%**37%13%
Public Policy PollingAugust 16–19, 2013721± 3.6%42%**45%**14%
Harper PollingAugust 14–15, 2013596± 4.01%**45%**43%12%
Public Policy PollingFebruary 8–12, 2013603± 4%**44%****44%**13%
Magellan StrategiesOctober 2–4, 20122,862± 1.9%**45.2%**39.8%15%

Results

Edwards' win was the first statewide win for Democrats in Louisiana since Mary Landrieu won a third term to the Senate in 2008. He performed surprisingly well for a Democratic candidate in Louisiana, given that the Cook PVI for the state was R+12 at the time of the election and most Republican candidates won in landslides in prior statewide elections. He performed especially well in Caddo Parish (home of Shreveport), East Baton Rouge Parish, (home of Baton Rouge), and in the reliably Democratic Orleans Parish, (home of New Orleans). Turnout was slightly higher in the November run-off than in the October jungle primary.

By congressional district

Edwards won five of six congressional districts, including four that were represented by Republicans.

DistrictVitterEdwardsRepresentative1st2nd3rd4th5th6th
**57%**43%Steve Scalise
17%**83%**Cedric Richmond
49.9%**50.1%**Charles Boustany
47%**53%**John Fleming
46%**54%**Ralph Abraham
46%**54%**Garret Graves

References

References

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  119. [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2012/Magellan_LA_1008.pdf Magellan Strategies]
  120. "Louisiana Secretary of State - Election Results".
  121. "Our Campaigns".
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