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2014 United States Senate special election in Hawaii

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2014 United States Senate special election in Hawaii

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FieldValue
election_name2014 United States Senate special election in Hawaii
countryHawaii
typepresidential
ongoingno
previous_election2010 United States Senate election in Hawaii
previous_year2010
next_election2016 United States Senate election in Hawaii
next_year2016
election_dateNovember 4, 2014
image_sizex150px
image1File:Brian Schatz official portrait (cropped).jpg
nominee1**Brian Schatz**
party1Democratic Party (United States)
popular_vote1**246,827**
percentage1**69.78%**
image2File:Cam Cavasso (cropped).jpg
nominee2Campbell Cavasso
party2Republican Party (United States)
popular_vote298,006
percentage227.70%
map_image
map_size310px
map_caption**Schatz:**
**Cavasso:**
titleU.S. Senator
before_electionBrian Schatz
before_partyDemocratic Party (United States)
after_electionBrian Schatz
after_partyDemocratic Party (United States)

Cavasso:

The 2014 United States Senate special election in Hawaii took place on November 4, 2014, the general Election Day in the United States, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate in other states as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Democratic Senator Brian Schatz was appointed to the office in December 2012, following the death of longtime senator Daniel Inouye. The special election determined who would serve the remainder of Inouye's term, which ended on January 3, 2017.

The Hawaii primary elections took place on August 9, 2014, but the Democratic primary remained unresolved until August 15 due to areas affected by damage from Tropical Storm Iselle. Schatz narrowly fended off a primary challenge from U.S. Representative Colleen Hanabusa and then went on to defeat the Republican nominee, former state representative Campbell Cavasso, in a landslide. This was the first election since 1959 in which a non-Asian was elected to represent Hawaii in the U.S. Senate.

Background

Daniel Inouye announced that he planned to run for a record tenth term in 2016, when he would have been 92 years old. He also said, "I have told my staff and I have told my family that when the time comes, when you question my sanity or question my ability to do things physically or mentally, I don't want you to hesitate, do everything to get me out of here, because I want to make certain the people of Hawaii get the best representation possible." Inouye died on December 17, 2012. He left a letter encouraging Governor Neil Abercrombie to appoint Congresswoman Colleen Hanabusa to succeed Inouye, should he become incapacitated.

Hawaii law allows the governor to appoint an interim senator "who serves until the next regularly-scheduled general election, chosen from a list of three prospective appointees that the prior incumbent's political party submits". Abercrombie appointed the lieutenant governor of Hawaii Brian Schatz as U.S. senator, citing Hanabusa's seniority on the United States House Committee on Armed Services as a chief reason not to appoint her to the position.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Brian Evans, singer and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2004
  • Colleen Hanabusa, U.S. representative
  • Brian Schatz, incumbent U.S. senator

Declined

  • Gil Kahele, state senator
  • Esther Kia'aina, deputy director of the Hawai'i Department of Land and Natural Resources

Endorsements

Politicians

  • Michael Bloomberg, former mayor of New York City
  • Al Gore, former vice president of the United States
  • Tom Harkin, U.S. senator (D-IA)
  • Barack Obama, president of the United States
  • Harry Reid, Senate Majority Leader (D-NV)
  • John D. Waihee III, former governor of Hawaii
  • Elizabeth Warren, U.S. senator (D-MA)

Organizations

  • Council for a Livable World
  • Hawaii Regional Council of Carpenters
  • League of Conservation Voters
  • National Weather Service Employees Organization
  • Ocean Champions
  • Sierra Club

Newspapers

  • Honolulu Star-Advertiser

Politicians

  • Daniel Akaka, former U.S. senator (D-HI)
  • Irene Hirano, widow of Senator Inouye

Individuals

  • George Takei

Organizations

  • EMILY's List

Debates

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorBrian
SchatzColleen
HanabusaOtherUndecided
QMark Research^February 2013500± 4.38%32%**54%**—13%
Clarity Campaigns^June 10–11, 2013771± 3.53%35%**46%**—19%
Civil BeatJune 18–20 & 24, 2013869± 3.3%**36%**33%9%23%
Mellman Group*June 26–30, 2013600± ?%**38%**37%—25%
Civil BeatOctober 9–10, 2013549± 4.2%**38%**36%—26%
Mellman Group*January 7–13, 2014800± 3.5%**41%**37%—22%
Hawaii PollJanuary 29 – February 3, 2014528± 4.3%40%**48%**—11%
Civil BeatFebruary 12–15, 2014643± 3.9%**40%****40%**—20%
Public Policy PollingMay 9–11, 2014606± 4%**49%**34%—17%
Civil BeatMay 18–19, 2014520± 4.3%**44%**39%—16%
Public Policy PollingJuly 23–24, 2014410± ?**49%**39%—11%
Civil BeatJuly 24–28, 2014895± 3.3%**49%**41%—10%
Hawaii PollJuly 21–29, 2014458± 4.6%42%**50%**—8%
    • Internal poll for Brian Schatz campaign
  • ^ Internal poll for Colleen Hanabusa campaign

Delay in election result

Primary elections in Hawaii were held on August 9, 2014. However, two precincts in Puna on Hawaiʻi Island did not open due to damage from Hurricane Iselle, and the approximately 8,255 voters in those precincts instead voted on August 15. The two leading Democratic candidates, Colleen Hanabusa and Brian Schatz, were initially separated by only 1,635 votes, meaning that the outcome was officially uncertain until voting in Puna was finished. However, an analysis by Hawaii News Now showed that Hanabusa would need to win approximately 65% of the vote in the outstanding precincts to overtake Schatz, something she had not managed in any other precinct in the state. Thus, Schatz was seen as the likely winner. After voting in Puna was completed, Schatz was declared the winner by a slightly increased margin of 1,769 votes. Hanabusa conceded on August 19.

Results

Results by county:

| | | ]]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Campbell Cavasso, former state representative and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2004 and 2010
  • Harry Friel, businessman
  • Eddie Pirkowski, candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2006, 2010 and 2012
  • John Roco, founder of Saint Damien Advocates and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010 and 2012

Declined

  • Charles Djou, former U.S. representative (running for HI-01)
  • Linda Lingle, former governor of Hawaii and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2012

Results

Vote totals listed do not include two precincts that voted on August 15.

Libertarian primary

Candidates

  • Michael Kokoski

Results

Independent primary

Candidates

  • Joy Allison
  • Arturo Pacheco Reyes

Results

Neither of the candidates polled enough votes to meet Hawaii's strict criteria for independents to participate in the general election.

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political ReportNovember 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political ReportNovember 3, 2014
Real Clear PoliticsNovember 3, 2014

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorBrian
Schatz (D)Campbell
Cavasso (R)OtherUndecided
CBS News/NYT/YouGovJuly 5–24, 20141,087± 3%**58%**22%15%5%
CBS News/NYT/YouGovAugust 18 – September 2, 2014655± 6%**62%**27%0%10%
Rasmussen ReportsSeptember 9–10, 2014750± 4%**60%**28%6%7%
Civil BeatSeptember 11–14, 20141,055± 3%**62%**25%—13%
CBS News/NYT/YouGovSeptember 20 – October 1, 20141,319± 4%**78%**22%0%0%
Ward ResearchOctober 11–18, 2014605± 4%**71%**20%—10%
Civil BeatOctober 16–19, 20141,221± 2.8%**55%**29%—16%
CBS News/NYT/YouGovOctober 16–23, 20141,002± 6%**70%**18%1%11%

Results

By county

CountyBrian Schatz
DemocraticCampbell Cavasso
RepublicanAll Others#%#%#%HawaiiHonoluluKauaiMauiTotals
**35,509****73.24%**11,09322.88%1,8813.88%
**163,411****68.15%**71,48729.81%4,8892.04%
**16,189****73.67%**5,25023.89%5372.44%
**31,668****72.86%**10,16523.39%1,6343.76%
**246,827****69.77%**98,00627.7%8,9412.53%

Notes

References

References

  1. (December 27, 2012). "Who Is Brian Schatz, the New U.S. Senator From Hawaii? - David A. Graham - The Atlantic".
  2. "2014 Calendar of Elections". Hawai'i Office of Elections.
  3. Manu Raju and John Bresnahan. (April 12, 2011). "Sen. Daniel Inouye goes silent on big Hawaiian race". Politico.
  4. Hamilton, Chris. "The Maui News — Inouye has more he wants to do for (Hawaii Senator emphasizes need for Democrats to remain in control)". The Maui News.
  5. Mizutani, Ron. (April 26, 2010). "Sen. Akaka: "God willing, I Plan to Run Again in 2012"". [[KHON2]].
  6. "Hawaii Sen. Daniel Inouye dies at age 88". Washington Post.
  7. (December 18, 2012). "CNN: Inouye gave preference for successor before he died". CNN.com.
  8. [http://www.hawaiireporter.com/lt-gov-brian-schatz-to-replace-inouye-in-u-s-senate/123 Lt. Gov. Brian Schatz to Replace Inouye in U.S. Senate. Hawaii Reporter]
  9. Rousseau, Morgan. (March 13, 2014). "'At Fenway' crooner Brian Evans running for Hawaii's U.S. Senate". Metro.
  10. (April 23, 2013). "Rep. Colleen Hanabusa to challenge Sen. Brian Schatz in 2014 primary". Hawaii News Now.
  11. [http://www.hawaiireporter.com/former-congressman-ed-case-joins-growing-list-of-democrats-applying-for-inouyes-u-s-senate-seat/123 Former Congressman Ed Case Joins Growing List of Democrats Applying for Inouye’s U.S. Senate Seat. Hawaii Reporter]
  12. Chad Blair. (December 3, 2013). "Bloomberg to Headline Schatz Reception in Honolulu". Civil Beat.
  13. Terkel, Amanda. (July 21, 2013). "Al Gore Endorses Brian Schatz In Hawaii Democratic Senate Primary". Huffington Post.
  14. link. (February 11, 2015 . July 17, 2013. Accessed February 11, 2015.)
  15. [[Jennifer Bendery]]. (March 31, 2014). "Obama Endorses Brian Schatz In Hawaii's Heated Senate Democratic Primary". The Huffington Post.
  16. (July 2, 2014). "Abercrombie, Schatz receive endorsement for upcoming election | More Local News - KITV Home". Kitv.com.
  17. (June 3, 2014). "Elizabeth Warren Sends Fundraising Letter For Brian Schatz". The Huffington Post.
  18. "Brian Schatz has been endorsed by...".
  19. [http://action.brianschatz.com/endorsements ] {{webarchive. link. (October 15, 2013)
  20. Blair, Chad. (September 1, 2013). "No Surprise: Hawaii's Sierra Club Backs Schatz". Honolulu Civil Beat.
  21. (November 30, 2011). "Hawaii News, Honolulu, Honolulu News, Sports, Editorial, Features, Travel and Business - Honolulu Star-Advertiser - Hawaii Newspaper".
  22. [http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/08/03/1228605/-Former-Senator-Daniel-Akaka-endorses-Colleen-Hanabusa-for-2014 Former Senator Daniel Akaka endorses Colleen Hanabusa for 2014]
  23. Scheuring, Ian. (May 3, 2013). "Wife of late Sen. Inouye backs Hanabusa for Senate". Hawaii News Now.
  24. Fox, Chloe. (December 9, 2013). "George Takei Endorses Hawaii Rep. Colleen Hanabusa". The Huffington Post.
  25. Burns, Alexander. (April 23, 2013). "Colleen Hanabusa rallies EMILY's List support". Politico.
  26. [https://www.scribd.com/doc/151108982/HI-Sen-QMark-Research-for-Hanabusa-Feb-2013 QMark Research^]
  27. [https://www.politico.com/story/2013/07/colleen-hanabusa-hawaii-senate-democratic-primary-2014-poll-93657.html?hp=r6 Clarity Campaigns^]
  28. [http://www.civilbeat.com/articles/2013/07/01/19414-civil-beat-poll-a-year-out-hawaii-senate-race-up-for-grabs/ Civil Beat]
  29. [https://www.politico.com/story/2013/07/colleen-hanabusa-hawaii-senate-democratic-primary-2014-poll-93657.html?hp=r6 Mellman Group*]
  30. [http://www.civilbeat.com/articles/2013/10/22/20203-civil-beat-poll-schatz-has-narrow-lead-over-hanabusa/ Civil Beat]
  31. [https://www.scribd.com/doc/207326601/HI-Sen-Mellman-for-Brian-Schatz-Jan-2014 Mellman Group*]
  32. [http://ftpcontent4.worldnow.com/khnl/specials/hipoll2014_tb1-22.pdf Hawaii Poll]
  33. [http://www.civilbeat.com/articles/2014/02/25/21242-civil-beat-poll-hawaiis-us-senate-race-in-holding-pattern/ Civil Beat]
  34. [http://www.democracyforamerica.com/blog/826-breaking-schatz-jumps-out-to-a-fifteen-point-lead-over-hanabusa-in-new-hi-sen-poll Public Policy Polling]
  35. [http://www.civilbeat.com/2014/05/civil-beat-poll-hawaii-voters-moving-toward-schatz/ Civil Beat]
  36. [https://www.scribd.com/doc/235285904/HI-Sen-HI-Gov-PPP-for-LCV-July-2014 Public Policy Polling]
  37. [http://www.civilbeat.com/2014/08/civil-beat-poll-schatz-takai-both-frontrunners-for-washington-d-c/ Civil Beat]
  38. [http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/story/26186931/hawaii-poll-hanabusa-up-over-schatz-in-senate-showdown Hawaii Poll]
  39. Blair, Chad. (August 11, 2014). "Hawaii Elections Office Announces Plan for Puna Voting on Friday". Peer News.
  40. Nakaso, Dan. (August 11, 2014). "All eyes on Puna". Oahu Publications.
  41. Grube, Nick. (August 10, 2014). "Will Hanabusa's Push in Puna Be Enough?". Peer News.
  42. (August 11, 2014). "Puna voters give edge to Schatz in close race with Hanabusa". [[Hawaii News Now]].
  43. (August 11, 2014). "Does Schatz have edge with remaining Hawaii voters?". Roll Call.
  44. (August 16, 2014). "It's Schatz". Oahu Publications.
  45. (August 19, 2014). "Hanabusa Won't Challenge US Senate Election Results". Peer News.
  46. "Primary Election 2014 -State of Hawaii – Statewide". Hawaii Office of Elections.
  47. Blair, Chad. (October 22, 2013). "Civil Beat Poll — Schatz Has Narrow Lead Over Hanabusa". Honolulu Civil Beat.
  48. Nago, Scott. (June 10, 2014). "Hawaii State Certified Filing Report". State of Hawaii, Office of Elections.
  49. "John Roco announces candidacy for U.S. Senate Hawaii 2014". China Hawaii Today.
  50. Ian Scheuring. (March 21, 2014). "State GOP chair confirms Djou congressional run". [[Hawaii News Now]].
  51. [https://www.politico.com/story/2012/12/hanabusa-seen-as-favorite-for-inouye-seat-85207.html Colleen Hanabusa favorite for Daniel Inouye seat - Alex Isenstadt - POLITICO.com]
  52. James Hohmann. (November 17, 2013). "GOP's third shot at Senate: Charm or bust?". Politico.
  53. (January 15, 2014). "Former Hawaii Gov. Linda Lingle Returns to CSUN to Teach". CSUN Today.
  54. (August 10, 2014). "No Independent Candidate Polls Enough Votes in Hawaii Primary to Advance to General Election Ballot".
  55. "2014 Senate Race Ratings for November 3, 2014".
  56. (November 3, 2014). "The Crystal Ball's Final 2014 Picks".
  57. "2014 Senate Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report.
  58. "2014 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2014". Real Clear Politics.
  59. [http://www.cbsnews.com/news/2014-midterms-republicans-narrowly-favored-to-capture-senate-in-november/ CBS News/NYT/YouGov]
  60. [https://today.yougov.com/news/2014/09/07/battleground-tracker-2014-hawaii/ CBS News/NYT/YouGov]
  61. [http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2014/hawaii/election_2014_hawaii_senate Rasmussen Reports]
  62. [http://www.civilbeat.com/2014/09/civil-beat-poll-gops-djou-up-by-4-points-over-democrat-takai-in-cd1/ Civil Beat]
  63. [http://today.yougov.com/news/2014/09/07/senate-races-battleground-tracker/ CBS News/NYT/YouGov]
  64. [http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/honolulu-star-advertiser-hawaii-news-now-ward-research-21272 Ward Research]
  65. [http://www.civilbeat.com/2014/10/civil-beat-poll-takai-djou-race-too-close-to-call/ Civil Beat]
  66. (November 4, 2014). "Hawaii General Election 2014". Hawaii Office of Elections.
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