2012 Venezuelan presidential election

Electoral process

Since 1998 elections in Venezuela have been highly automated, and administered by a non-partisan National Electoral Council, with poll workers drafted via a lottery of registered voters. Polling places are equipped with multiple high-tech touch-screen DRE voting machines, one to a "mesa electoral", or voting "table". After the vote is cast, each machine prints out a paper ballot, or VVPAT, which is inspected by the voter and deposited in a ballot box belonging to the machine's table. The voting machines perform in a stand-alone fashion, disconnected from any network until the polls close. Voting session closure at each of the voting stations in a given polling center is determined either by the lack of further voters after the lines have emptied, or by the hour, at the discretion of the president of the voting table.

Formal registration

On 10 June 2012, Capriles walked to the election commission to formally register his candidacy, at the head of a march estimated in the hundreds of thousands by international media, while local polling company Hernández Hercon estimated it to between 950,000 and 1,100,000. Capriles had stepped down as Governor of Miranda in early June in order to concentrate on his campaign.

Withdrawals

17 September, opposition candidate Yoel Acosta Chirinos withdrew from presidential election and announced support to president Chavez.

Parties

Patriotic Pole

Incumbent president Hugo Chávez Frías announced he would seek re-election at a University Students' Day rally held in Caracas in November 2010. Chávez' first mandate began in 1999, and if he had served the complete 2013–19 term, he would have served 20 years as president, having won four presidential elections. In July 2011, Chávez reaffirmed his intent to run in spite of his battle with cancer.

Chávez was supported by the Great Patriotic Pole (GPP), an electoral coalition led by the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela, PSUV).

Democratic Unity

The opposition parties were grouped in the Democratic Unity Roundtable whose candidate was selected through an open primary election held on 12 February 2012. The MUD electoral coalition consists of the parties Justice First (Movimiento Primero Justicia, PJ), Fatherland for All (Patria Para Todos, PPT), Project Venezuela (Proyecto Venezuela), and Popular Will (Voluntad Popular, VP) as the main supporters of Henrique Capriles in the primary elections of February 2012.

Primary

Main article: 2012 Democratic Unity Roundtable presidential primary

File:Henrique_Capriles_Radonski_from_Margarita_island.jpg|Governor Henrique Carpiles Radonski of Miranda File:Pablo_Pérez_2010.JPG|Governor Pablo Pérez of Zulia File:Mariacorinamachado2.jpg|Deputy María Corina Machado of Miranda File:DiegoArria.jpeg|Former president of the UN Security Council and former governor Diego Arria of Caracas File:Leopoldo_Lopez_mendoza.jpg|Former mayor Leopoldo López of Chacao (Withdrew on 20 February 2012) Capriles won the opposition primaries with 1,900,528 (64.2%) votes of the 3,059,024 votes cast (votes abroad not included). The other candidates on 12 February primary ballot were:

• Pablo Pérez Álvarez: governor of Zulia state, representing the A New Era party; received 30.3% of the vote.
• María Corina Machado: former Súmate president and member of the National Assembly of Venezuela representing the Miranda state since 2011; received 3.7% of the vote.
• Diego Arria: former Venezuelan representative to the United Nations (1990–91) and former governor of the defunct Federal District (1974–78); received 1.3% of the vote.
• Pablo Medina: politician and former trade union leader; received 0.5% of the vote.

Leopoldo López was barred from running following corruption charges which he denied and for which he was never tried; in 2011, the Interamerican Court of Human Rights overturned the Venezuelan government ruling and said he should be allowed to run. On 24 January, placed "in the awkward position of being able to stand for elections but not hold office",

Candidates César Pérez Vivas (governor of Táchira state), Antonio Ledezma (mayor of the Metropolitan District of Caracas) and Eduardo Fernández (former secretary general of COPEI) withdrew from the race, saying they would support candidates with better chances of winning.

Voter list dispute

A dispute erupted over the disposition of the voter rolls, rising out of concern that opposition voters could incur reprisals. Because the names of voters who had participated in the request of the 2004 recall referendum against Chávez had been made public via the Tascón List and, according to opposition leaders, those voters were later targeted for discrimination or lost jobs, the MUD had guaranteed voter secrecy. On Tuesday 14 February, in response to "a losing mayoral candidate, who asked that the ballots be preserved for review", the Supreme Court of Venezuela ordered the military to collect the voting rolls "so that electoral authorities could use them to investigate alleged irregularities during Sunday's elections".

An attorney for the opposition said that records are to be destroyed within 48 hours by law. Later the opposition declared all voter rolls had been destroyed.

Candidate platforms

Chávez

The GlobalPost says that "housing, health and other programs have been the cornerstone" of President Chávez's tenure, who "remains very popular, largely because of the vast number of social programs he put in place, funded by Venezuela's vast oil wealth". According to The Washington Times, Chávez said the opposition represents "the rich and the U.S. government"; as part of his campaign, he increased social spending and investments to benefit the poor, and plans to launch a satellite made in China before the elections.

Capriles

According to Reuters, "Capriles defines himself as a center-left 'progressive' follower of the business-friendly but socially-conscious Brazilian economic model", although he is a member of the center-right Justice First. He has a youthful and populist style, a sports enthusiast who rides a motorbike into the slums, and has broken with the older guard of Venezuelan politicians. In February 2012 Capriles insisted he would keep these programs, saying "I want to expand them, and get rid of the corruption and inefficiency that characterizes them."

In early September 2012 David De Lima, a former governor of Anzoátegui, published a document that he said that showed secret MUD plans to implement, if elected, different from what their public statements showed. De Lima said the document was a form of policy pact between some of the candidates in the MUD primary, including Capriles. On 6 September 2012 opposition legislator William Ojeda denounced these plans and the "neoliberal obsessions" of his colleagues in the MUD; he was suspended by his A New Era party the following day. Capriles said that his signature on the document was a forgery, while the MUD's economic advisor said that the MUD had "no hidden agenda", and that its plans included the "institutionalisation" of the government's Bolivarian Missions so that they would no longer be "subject to the whims of government". One small coalition party claimed De Lima had offered them money to withdraw from the MUD; De Lima denied the claim.

Campaign

The authority of the Venezuelan National Electoral Council (CNE) to oversee the election was recognized by the opposition. A January poll placed Chávez's approval rating at 64 percent. Capriles criticized Chávez for expropriating private businesses and for the government's use of the state-controlled media; the Washington Times said it will be hard for Capriles to compete with Chávez's "ability to take over the airwaves of all TV and radio stations when he deems appropriate". In June Chávez said he would not engage in an election debate with Capriles, describing him as a "non-entity" he would be "ashamed" to measure himself against.

Funding

It has been reported that funds to social programs increased dramatically before the elections, with Chávez devoting 16% of Venezuela's GDP to the initiatives.

Chávez's health

Prior to the election, Chávez received treatment for cancer in Cuba including radiation, chemotherapy, and two operations. He did not reveal the specifics of the type or location of his cancer, but his illness was a factor in election campaigning.

According to Reuters, some journalists sympathetic to the opposition spread information about Chávez's cancer based on claims that they had access to medical sources. Amid speculation about whether he will live through the elections, there was no clear successor. CNN stated "outlines" of a successor were seen in the appointments of two Chávez allies to top posts; Diosdado Cabello as president of the National Assembly of Venezuela and Henry Rangel Silva as minister of defense. Reuters said additional potential successors or placeholders include Chávez's two daughters and Nicolás Maduro, foreign minister. The Venezuelan constitution provides for the president to appoint vice presidents at his discretion, and for the vice president to assume power in the event of the president's death, but according to CNN, the more likely scenarios ranged "from a military coup to Chávez naming Cabello or Maduro vice president before he dies." CNN also said that analysts say Cuban politics had a role in the succession questions, with some Cubans supporting the president's brother, Adán Chávez.

From mid-April to late May 2012, Chávez was only seen in public twice, spending almost six weeks in Cuba for treatment. On 7 May, he responded to criticism that he had left Venezuela in a power vacuum, saying he would be back soon. On 22 May he took part in a live broadcast of a cabinet meeting lasting several hours. He created a new Council of State, fueling rumors that it would act as a committee to help in the event a transition of government was needed.

Allegations

In February 2012 Capriles was subject to what were characterized in the press as "vicious" The Wall Street Journal said that Capriles "was vilified in a campaign in Venezuela's state-run media, which insinuated he was, among other things, a homosexual and a Zionist agent". the Radio Nacional opinion piece noted Capriles' Jewish ancestry and a meeting he had held with local Jewish leaders, saying: "This is our enemy, the Zionism that Capriles today represents ... Zionism, along with capitalism, are responsible for 90% of world poverty and imperialist wars."

In early July 2012 Capriles published a document allegedly showing that the government had ordered all military personnel not to view private television networks. The publication coincided with a Capriles political ad aimed at the military. Based on non-classified military order 4926 from September 2011, the document had been redated to 31 July but was published several weeks before that date, still bearing the original signature of the minister of defense in September 2011, Carlos José Mata Figueroa (who had been replaced in January 2012). The document bore the original document number, and had the "not classified" stamps replaced with "confidential", but retained the original "NOCLAS" ("not classified") classification mark.

Opinion polls

According to Reuters, "Polls are historically controversial in Venezuela", pointing out that "Venezuelan pollsters – who range from a former Chavez minister to an openly pro-opposition figure – also tend to double as political analysts, offering partisan opinions in state media or opposition-linked newspapers." The Chavez campaign accused Datanalisis and Consultores 21 of inventing polls to support opposition plans to claim fraud in the event of defeat.

Although the poll results vary widely, most of the variation is by pollster; results from individual pollsters are quite stable over time. Of the established Venezuelan pollsters, Consultores 21 and Varianzas have consistently shown a close race, while IVAD, GIS XXI, Datanalisis and Hinterlaces have consistently given Chávez a 10 to 20-point lead.

In June the CNE required pollsters publishing polls relating to the election to register with them, and to provide details of their methodology. The list of registered pollsters is available online.

Established Venezuelan pollsters

Other pollsters

Conduct

In March 2012, at a visit by Capriles to the San José de Cotiza Caracas neighbourhood, a group of armed members of the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) began firing guns "in an apparent effort to break up the rally". According to news reports, five people were injured, including the son of an opposition member of the National Assembly of Venezuela. Capriles was subsequently taken safely from the scene. Journalists for television channel Globovisión had been covering the rally; its crew, consisting of reporter Sasha Ackerman, cameraman Frank Fernández and assistant Esteban Navas were threatened by the armed men, who confiscated their equipment and footage of the shootings. A Globovisión statement the next day identified the armed men as PSUV supporters, saying "These groups wore red shirts identifying them with a political tendency. More importantly, it was an armed and organized group that fired weapons against people". Venezuela's justice minister, Tarek El Aissami, accused opposition supporters of perpetrating the attacks "to generate this show", while other government officials claimed that Capriles' bodyguards "were the ones to start shooting".

There have also been reports of opposition supporters attacking journalists at opposition campaign events, including reporter Fidel Madroñero for local public station Catatumbo Television at an event in the Zulia state, and VTV reporter Llafrancis Colina at events in Aragua, as well as in the Táchira and Barinas states. Capriles subsequently told journalists "I'm against any type of violence, no matter where it comes from."

PSUV politician Diosdado Cabello declared that Chávez was the only one who could guarantee peace. He added: "those who want fatherland will go with Chávez; those who are traitors will go with the others". He also said that if the opposition wins, it would take the measures of the IMF.

Alleged plots

On 20 March Chávez declared he had intelligence reports about an alleged plot to assassinate Capriles, and said the government was monitoring security for Capriles, with the Director of the Bolivarian Intelligence Service meeting with Capriles' security team. Capriles responded that what the government should do is to guarantee security for all Venezuelans. Chávez said that his government "has nothing to do with" the plot, In the 2006 presidential election, Chávez similarly declared he had uncovered an assassination plot against his opponent, Manuel Rosales.

Later that same month, Chávez claimed the existence of an opposition plot to disrupt the election with violence and "attack ... the constitution, the people and institutions". Of the "list of actions" he said he was preparing in response, Chávez said he was willing to nationalise banks or companies that supported the opposition should they "[violate] the constitution and the national plan."

In April, Chávez said Capriles was behind a conspiracy plan against his government. Reiterating that he would win with at least 70% of the votes, Chávez said that he had created a civil-military command to neutralize any "destabilization plans" in the event that the opposition did not recognise the results. In reference to the events of April 2002, Chávez said that if necessary, "there would not just be the people on the streets, but the people and soldiers".

Results

By party

By state

Close states

Red font color denotes states won by President Chávez; blue denotes those won by Governor Capriles.

States where the margin of victory was under 5%:

1. Miranda 0.45%
2. Nueva Esparta 2.57%
3. Mérida 2.64%
4. Lara 3.70%
5. Anzoátegui 3.92%

States where margin of victory was more than 5% but less than 10%:

1. Zulia 7.07%
2. Amazonas 8.17%
3. Bolívar 8.28%
4. Carabobo 9.61%

Reactions

International

• Argentina – Argentina's president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner released a message on Twitter saying: "Hugo, today I wish to tell you that you have plowed the earth, you have sown it, you have watered it, and today you have picked up the harvest." She called the election a victory for all "South Americans and the Caribbeans."
• Bolivia – Bolivian president Evo Morales called the election result a victory for all "the nations of Latin America that fight for their sovereign dignity."
• Brazil – Brazilian foreign minister Antonio Patriota congratulated Chavez on his victory and praised Capriles for his swift recognition of defeat.
• Cuba – Cuban president Raúl Castro released a message from the country's embassy in Mexico City stating "Your decisive victory assures the continuation of the struggle for the genuine integration of Our America" and that the election "shows the strength of the Bolivarian Revolution and its unquestionable grassroots support."
• Ecuador – Ecuadorean president Rafael Correa posted a message on Twitter congratulating Chavez and declaring: "All of Latin American is with you and with our beloved Venezuela. ... Next battle: Ecuador!"
• Iran – Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad issued a message congratulating Chavez on his re-election. In the message he also emphasized the need for Iran and Venezuela to increase cooperation.
• Nicaragua – Nicaraguan president Daniel Ortega congratulated Chavez, calling him "an indisputable leader that will continue leading the Latin American Revolution."
• Russia – According to the presidential press service, Russian president Vladimir Putin congratulated Hugo Chávez in a telephone conversation.
• United States – White House Press Secretary Jay Carney congratulated the Venezuelan people on the high voter turnout and "peaceful elections". Uruguay – Uruguayan president Jose Mujica used the election the victory to urge Latin American nations for more cooperation and put aside differences.

References

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