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2012 United States Senate election in Hawaii

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2012 United States Senate election in Hawaii

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FieldValue
election_name2012 United States Senate election in Hawaii
countryHawaii
typepresidential
ongoingno
previous_election2006 United States Senate election in Hawaii
previous_year2006
next_election2018 United States Senate election in Hawaii
next_year2018
turnout44.2% (voting eligible)
election_dateNovember 6, 2012
image_size150x150px
image1File:Mazie Hirono, official portrait, 112th Congress.jpg
nominee1**Mazie Hirono**
party1Democratic Party (United States)
popular_vote1**269,489**
percentage1**62.60%**
image2File:Linda Lingle in March 2010.jpg
nominee2Linda Lingle
party2Republican Party (United States)
popular_vote2160,994
percentage237.40%
map_image
map_caption**Hirono:**
**Lingle:**
**Tie:**
titleU.S. Senator
before_electionDaniel Akaka
before_partyDemocratic Party (United States)
after_electionMazie Hirono
after_partyDemocratic Party (United States)

Lingle:
Tie:
The 2012 United States Senate election in Hawaii took place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the 2012 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic senator Daniel Akaka decided to retire instead of seeking a fourth full term. Democrat Mazie Hirono defeated Republican Linda Lingle. This was the first open Senate seat in the state of Hawaii since 1976.

This was a rematch of the 2002 Hawaii gubernatorial election, which Linda Lingle won 51.56% - 47.01%.

Background

U.S. Representative Daniel Akaka was appointed by Governor John Waihee to the U.S. Senate to serve temporarily after the death of U.S. Senator Spark Matsunaga, and sworn into office on May 16, 1990. On November 6 of the same year, he was elected to complete the remaining four years of Matsunaga's unexpired term. He was re-elected in 1994 for a first full six-year term and again in 2000 and 2006. Despite originally saying he would seek re-election in 2012, on March 2, 2011, Akaka announced that he would not run for re-election.

Democratic primary

The primary election was held on August 11. After being locked in a tight race with Ed Case, her predecessor in Congress, incumbent Congresswoman Mazie Hirono pulled away in the final vote, handily defeating Case.

Candidates

  • Ed Case, former U.S. representative
  • Michael Gillespie
  • Antonio Gimbernat
  • Mazie Hirono, U.S. representative and 2002 nominee for governor
  • Arturo Reyes

Withdrew

  • Daniel Akaka, incumbent U.S. Senator

Declined

  • Tammy Duckworth, Assistant Secretary of Public/Intergovernmental Affairs (ran for Congress in Illinois)
  • Colleen Hanabusa, U.S. Representative
  • Mufi Hannemann, former mayor of Honolulu (ran for Congress)

Campaign

In December 2011, Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee chairwoman and U.S. Senator Patty Murray for Washington endorsed Hirono. U.S. Senator and President Pro Tempore Daniel Inouye for Hawaii also endorsed her. Case criticized "D.C. insiders." He also argued that he is a fiscal moderate, while Hirono was rated the 6th most liberal member of the U.S. House. The Daily Kos blog described Ed Case as a "Democratic villain."

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorEd
CaseMazie
HironoUndecided
Public Policy PollingOctober 13–16, 2011368±5.1%40%**45%**15%
Civil Beat PollJanuary 18–19, 20121,358±2.7%**41%**39%20%
Honolulu Star-AdvertiserJanuary 26 – February 5, 2012599±4.0%36%**56%**8%
Civil Beat PollJune 5–7, 2012731±3.6%**46%****46%**8%
Honolulu Star-AdvertiserJuly 5–9, 2012599±4.0%40%**43%**9%
Honolulu Star-AdvertiserJuly 12–21, 2012606±4.0%37%**55%**8%
Civil Beat/Merriman RiverJuly 31 – August 2, 20121,227±2.8%**47%**46%9%

Results

Results by county:

]]

Republican primary

The primary election was held on August 11.

Candidates

  • John Carroll, former state senator, former state representative and perennial candidate
  • Charles Collins
  • Linda Lingle, former governor
  • Eddie Pirkowski, businessman and perennial candidate
  • John Roco

Declined

  • Duke Aiona, former lieutenant governor
  • Charles Djou, former U.S. representative (running for U.S. House)

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorJohn
CarrollLinda
LingleUndecided
Public Policy PollingOctober 13–16, 2011293±5.7%9%**85%**6%

Results

General election

Candidates

  • Heath Beasley (independent)
  • Mazie Hirono (Democratic), U.S. representative
  • Linda Lingle (Republican), former governor

Debates

  • September 6, 2012 – Honolulu Japanese Chamber of Commerce and various other hosts
  • October 8, 2012 – AARP Hawaii
  • October 16, 2012 – Honolulu Civil Beat, Complete video of debate at C-SPAN
  • October 18, 2012 – PBS Hawaii
  • October 22, 2012 – Hawaii Star Advertiser

Fundraising

Candidate (party)ReceiptsDisbursementsCash on handDebt
Mazie Hirono (D)$5,518,572$5,657,753$77,323$241,951
Linda Lingle (R)$5,865,323$5,839,282$26,042$194,534
Source: Federal Election Commission

Top contributors

Mazie HironoContributionLinda LingleContribution
EMILY's List$215,640Goldman Sachs$39,900
University of Hawaii$29,900Elliott Management Corporation$39,500
Kobayashi, Sugita & Goda$24,618Humanscale Corporation$34,000
Alexander & Baldwin$23,100Bank of America$21,240
RM Towill Corp$23,000Richie's Specialty Pharmacy$20,000
Weitz & Luxenberg$22,400Marriott International$19,500
Council for a Livable World$20,914Murray Energy$19,205
Nan, Inc.$20,000State of Hawaii$18,350
Thornton & Naumes$20,000Devon Energy$15,500
BNP Paribas$17,250Crown Associates Realty$15,000
Source: OpenSecrets

Top industries

Mazie HironoContributionLinda LingleContribution
Lawyers/law firms$524,619Retired$640,433
Women's issues$336,772Financial institutions$368,837
Retired$194,307Leadership PACs$291,500
Leadership PACs$186,500Real estate$249,216
Real estate$123,598Pro-Israel$185,500
Transportation unions$110,400Health professionals$154,550
Lobbyists$109,344Petroleum industry$137,950
Public sector unions$108,000Misc. finance$137,500
Democratic/liberal$85,788Lawyers/law firms$135,086
Shipping industry$85,385Republican/conservative$101,664
Source: OpenSecrets

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political ReportNovember 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political ReportNovember 2, 2012
Real Clear PoliticsNovember 5, 2012

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorMazie
Hirono (D)Linda
Lingle (R)Undecided
Public Policy PollingMarch 24–27, 2011898±3.3%**52%**40%9%
Honolulu Star-AdvertiserMay 4–10, 2011614±4.0%**57%**35%8%
Public Policy PollingOctober 13–16, 2011568±4.1%**48%**42%10%
Civil Beat/Merriman RiverJanuary 18–19, 20121,358±2.7%**46%**39%16%
Honolulu Star-AdvertiserJanuary 26 – February 5, 2012771±3.5%**57%**37%5%
Public Policy PollingMay 16–17, 2012600±4.0%**50%**41%9%
Civil Beat/Merriman RiverJune 5–7, 20121,105±2.9%**49%**44%5%
Honolulu Star-AdvertiserJuly 12–21, 2012756±3.6%**58%**39%4%
Civil Beat/Merriman RiverSeptember 26–28, 20121,684±2.4%**55%**39%6%
Honolulu Star-AdvertiserOctober 15–22, 2012786±3.5%**57%**35%8%
Civil Beat/Merriman RiverOctober 24–26, 20121,218±2.8%**55%**40%5%

Democratic primary

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorEd
CaseColleen
HanabusaMufi
HannemannMazie
HironoBrian
SchatzDon't Know/
Refused
Honolulu Star-AdvertiserMay 4–10, 2011403±4.9%**26%**15%17%25%6%11%

with Duke Aiona

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorEd
Case (D)Duke
Aiona (R)Undecided/Other
Public Policy PollingMarch 24–27, 2011898±3.3%**50%**35%15%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorMazie
Hirono (D)Duke
Aiona (R)Undecided/Other
Public Policy PollingMarch 24–27, 2011898±3.3%**49%**42%10%

with Colleen Hanabusa

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorColleen
Hanabusa (D)Duke
Aiona (R)Undecided/Other
Public Policy PollingMarch 24–27, 2011898±3.3%**48%**43%9%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorColleen
Hanabusa (D)Charles
Djou (R)Undecided/Other
Public Policy PollingMarch 24–27, 2011898±3.3%**50%**40%10%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorColleen
Hanabusa (D)Linda
Lingle (R)Undecided/Other
Public Policy PollingMarch 24–27, 2011898±3.3%**51%**40%9%
Honolulu Star-AdvertiserMay 4–10, 2011614±4.0%**54%**39%7%

with Charles Djou

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorEd
Case (D)Charles
Djou (R)Undecided/Other
Public Policy PollingMarch 24–27, 2011898±3.3%**53%**35%12%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorMazie
Hirono (D)Charles
Djou (R)Undecided/Other
Public Policy PollingMarch 24–27, 2011898±3.3%**51%**40%9%

With Mufi Hannemann

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorMufi
Hannemann (D)Charles
Djou (R)Undecided/Other
Public Policy PollingMarch 24–27, 2011898±3.3%**46%**40%14%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorMufi
Hannemann (D)Duke
Aiona (R)Undecided/Other
Public Policy PollingMarch 24–27, 2011898±3.3%**42%****42%**16%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorMufi
Hannemann (D)Linda
Lingle (R)Undecided/Other
Public Policy PollingMarch 24–27, 2011898±3.3%**47%**40%14%
Honolulu Star-AdvertiserMay 4–10, 2011614±4.0%**51%**36%13%

with Brian Schatz

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorBrian
Schatz (D)Linda
Lingle (R)Undecided/Other
Honolulu Star-AdvertiserMay 4–10, 2011614±4.0%**47%**43%10%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorEd
Case (D)John
Carroll (R)Undecided/Other
Public Policy PollingOctober 13–16, 2011568±4.1%**60%**21%18%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorEd
Case (D)Linda
Lingle (R)Undecided/Other
Public Policy PollingMarch 24–27, 2011898±3.3%**52%**35%12%
Honolulu Star-AdvertiserMay 4–10, 2011614±4.0%**54%**36%10%
Public Policy PollingOctober 13–16, 2011568±4.1%43%**45%**12%
Civil Beat/Merriman RiverJanuary 18–19, 20121,358±2.7%**46%**33%20%
Honolulu Star-AdvertiserJanuary 26 – February 5, 2012771±3.5%**56%**36%8%
Civil Beat/Merriman RiverJune 5–7, 20121,105±2.9%**52%**36%12%
Honolulu Star-AdvertiserJuly 12–21, 2012756±3.6%**56%**38%6%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorMazie
Hirono (D)John
Carroll (R)Undecided/Other
Public Policy PollingOctober 13–16, 2011568±4.1%**56%**29%15%

Endorsements

U.S. representatives

  • Don Young, U.S. representative from Alaska's at-large congressional district (Republican; endorsed only in the primary)

Results

By county

CountyMazie Hirono
DemocraticLinda Lingle
Republican#%#%HawaiiHonoluluKauaiMauiTotals
**43,383****69.0%**19,49131.0%
**174,634****59.44%**119,17640.56%
**17,973****71.59%**7,13428.41%
**33,169****68.72%**15,09631.28%
**269,489****62.6%**160,99437.4%

By congressional district

Hirono won both congressional districts.

DistrictHironoLingleRepresentative
**59.94%**40.06%Colleen Hanabusa
**65.24%**34.76%Tulsi Gabbard

References

References

  1. Dr. Michael McDonald. (February 9, 2013). "2012 General Election Turnout Rates". [[George Mason University]].
  2. Mizutani, Ron. (April 26, 2010). "Sen. Akaka: "God willing, I Plan to Run Again in 2012"". [[KHON2]].
  3. DePledge, Derrick. (March 2, 2011). "AKAKA WILL NOT SEEK RE-ELECTION IN 2012". [[Honolulu Star-Advertiser]].
  4. "Maui Weekly".
  5. Starkey, Melanie. (April 10, 2011). "Ed Case to Mount Hawaii Senate Campaign". [[Roll Call]].
  6. Trygstad, Kyle. (May 19, 2011). "Mazie Hirono to Run for Open Senate Seat in Hawaii". [[Roll Call]].
  7. Daranciang, Nelson. (May 31, 2011). "Duckworth not considering run for Hawaii posts". [[Honolulu Star-Advertiser]].
  8. Catanese, David. (March 3, 2011). "Hanabusa passes on Senate Bid". [[Politico]].
  9. Blair, Chad. (August 24, 2011). "No Senate Run for Hanabusa". Peer News LLC.
  10. Trygstad, Kyle. (August 24, 2011). "Hanabusa Will Seek Re-Election, Not Bid for Senate". Roll Call.
  11. Joseph, Cameron. (August 30, 2011). "Former Honolulu Mayor Hannemann to run for House". [[Ballot Box]].
  12. [https://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/100109-poll-hirono-in-solid-shape-in-senate-primary/ Poll: Hirono in solid shape in Senate primary - The Hill's Ballot Box]
  13. [http://www.hawaiireporter.com/former-congressman-ed-case-if-hirono-wins-u-s-senate-democratic-primary-former-gop-gov-lingle-will-beat-her/123 Former Congressman Ed Case: If Hirono Wins U.S. Senate Democratic Primary, Former GOP Gov. Lingle Will Beat Her. Hawaii Reporter]
  14. [http://www.rollcall.com/issues/57_75/unrelenting_ed_case_mazie_hirono_dc_insider-211060-1.html?pos=hln Unrelenting Ed Case Says Mazie Hirono Is D.C. Insider : Roll Call Politics]
  15. "Honolulu Civil Beat – Capitol Watch – Hawaii Politics and Government – Daily Kos Hates Ed Case".
  16. [http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_HI_10191.pdf Public Policy Polling]
  17. [http://www.civilbeat.com/articles/2012/01/30/14720-civil-beat-poll-case-hirono-neck-and-neck-for-us-senate-nomination/ Civil Beat Poll]
  18. [http://www.staradvertiser.com/s?action=login&f=y&id=139202464 Honolulu Star-Advertiser]
  19. [http://www.civilbeat.com/articles/2012/06/12/16045-civil-beat-poll-case-hirono-tied-in-hawaii-us-senate-race/ Civil Beat Poll]
  20. [https://www.scribd.com/doc/101099991/Honolulu-Star-Advertiser-Hawaii-News-Now-Hawaii-Poll-July-2012-Part-1 Honolulu Star-Advertiser]
  21. [http://www.civilbeat.com/articles/2012/08/08/16729-civil-beat-poll-case-hirono-too-close-to-call/ Civil Beat/Merriman River]
  22. "PRIMARY ELECTION 2012 – State of Hawaii – Statewide". State Of Hawaii Office of Elections.
  23. (September 21, 2011). "Ex-HI GOP legislator John Carroll to run for U.S. Senate". [[The Hawaii Independent]].
  24. Bracken, Sherry. (May 29, 2012). "Senate Candidate Lingle Continues to Campaign on Big Island".
  25. DePledge, Derrick. (October 11, 2011). "Lingle joins U.S. Senate race". [[Honolulu Star-Advertiser]].
  26. "Office of Elections".
  27. (August 16, 2011). "Aiona says he will not run for Congress in 2012". [[Honolulu Star-Advertiser]].
  28. (August 17, 2011). "Djou announces run for Congress, will deploy to Afghanistan". Honolulu Star-Advertiser.
  29. Trygstad, Kyle. (August 17, 2011). "Ex-Rep. Djou Announces Bid for House". Roll Call.
  30. [http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_HIOH_1018.pdf Public Policy Polling]
  31. (August 12, 2012). "Hawaii – County Vote Results".
  32. (September 6, 2012). "Hirono, Lingle square off in first Senate debate". New Vision Television – KHON2.
  33. Sakahara, Tim. (September 6, 2012). "Lingle and Hirono battle in feisty debate".
  34. (August 23, 2012). "Lingle, Hirono finalize debate schedule". The Maui News.
  35. (August 22, 2012). "Lingle, Hirono finalize US Senate debate schedule". Real Clear Politics.
  36. [[Federal Election Commission]]. "2012 House and Senate Campaign Finance for Hawaii HIRONO, MAZIE K". fec.gov.
  37. [[Federal Election Commission]]. "2012 House and Senate Campaign Finance for Hawaii LINGLE, LINDA". fec.gov.
  38. "Top Contributors 2012 Race: Hawaii Senate". [[OpenSecrets]].
  39. "Top Industries 2012 Race: Hawaii Senate". [[OpenSecrets]].
  40. "2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012".
  41. "2012 Senate".
  42. "2012 Senate Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report.
  43. "2012 Elections Map – Battle for the Senate 2012". Real Clear Politics.
  44. [http://www.dailykos.com/polling/2011/3/24/HI/30/eQhgB Public Policy Polling]
  45. [http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/story/14649758/hawaii-poll-case-hirono-favored-lingle-trails-in-senate-race Honolulu Star-Advertiser]
  46. [http://www.civilbeat.com/articles/2012/01/31/14721-civil-beat-poll-lingle-trails-both-democratic-us-senate-candidates/ Civil Beat/Merriman River]
  47. [http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/02/13/1064401/-HI-Sen-Mazie-Hirono-D-leads-Linda-Lingle-by-20?detail=hide Honolulu Star-Advertiser]
  48. [https://web.archive.org/web/20120525045926/http://www.lcv.org/assets/campaigns/hawaiipollresults.pdf Public Policy Polling]
  49. [http://www.civilbeat.com/articles/2012/06/12/16045-civil-beat-poll-case-hirono-tied-in-hawaii-us-senate-race/ Civil Beat/Merriman River]
  50. [http://www.civilbeat.com/articles/2012/10/01/17260-civil-beat-poll-hirono-up-big-on-lingle/ Civil Beat/Merriman River]
  51. [http://www.staradvertiser.com/news/20121029__Hirono_leads_Lingle_in_US_Senate_race_by_22point_margin.html Honolulu Star-Advertiser]
  52. [http://www.civilbeat.com/articles/2012/10/31/17488-civil-beat-poll-hironos-double-digit-lead-over-lingle-holding/ Civil Beat/Merriman River]
  53. [http://www.staradvertiser.com/news/20110516__Case_Hirono_neck_and_neck_in_US_Senate_seat_poll.html Honolulu Star-Advertiser]
  54. (July 25, 2012). "Don Young's unusual endorsement of Hawaii Democrat Mazie Hirono".
  55. (November 20, 2012). "2012 General Election Summary Report".
  56. "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts".
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