2010 Venezuelan parliamentary election

Background

Electoral changes

Elections for the National Assembly of Venezuela in the 2000 and the 2005 were conducted under a weak mixed member proportional system, with 60% elected in first-past-the-post electoral districts and the remainder by closed party list proportional representation. This was an adaptation of the system previously used for the Venezuelan Chamber of Deputies, which had been introduced in 1993, with a 50-50 balance between voting districts and party lists, and deputies per state proportional to population, but with a minimum of three deputies per state.

For the 2010 election, the Ley Orgánica de Procesos Electorales (LOPE) (Basic law of electoral process) among other changes reduced the party list proportion to 30%. In addition, the law completely separated the district vote and the party list votes, creating a more parallel system. Previously, parties winning nominal district seats had had these subtracted from the total won under the proportional party list. Under the new law, in 2009, electoral districts were redefined in a way that has been accused of favouring the PSUV, particularly in giving more weight to votes in the countryside over those in the city.

Electoral process

As usual in Venezuela, the voting took place on a non-work day, and the sale of alcohol was banned starting the day prior to elections.

Four domestic NGOs registered 624 observers each. The European Union noted that "the Venezuelan National Electoral Council accredited more than 200 international guests to accompany the day of the election. No long-term international electoral observation missions participated." Foreign observers were warned in a full-page newspaper advertisement "not to interfere with the nation's internal affairs." An opposition spokesman said that "If observers were allowed to watch the campaign, they would have seen the abuse of power and of public resources and public media." The government's Roy Chaderton said that foreign observers were present and that comments like this from the opposition were "part of the media terrorism they like to practice".

The CNE monitors political advertisements during campaigns, and reported that for a 3-day period at the end of August, opposition ads made up 60.3% of the airtime given to such ads, across the five main channels Venevisión, Televen, Globovisión, Tves and Venezolana de Televisión. Over half the total opposition ad time of around 80 minutes was on Globovisión.

In early September, one member of the five-person CNE, the pro-opposition councillor Vicente Díaz, publicly accused Chavez of breaking campaign laws by using state-run television to "berate rivals and praise friends" during the election campaign. Díaz requested the CNE open administrative proceedings, but after extensive internal discussion the CNE declined. The opposition electoral coalition, Coalition for Democratic Unity (MUD) rejected the CNE decision, and said it illustrated CNE's lack of independence and willingness to justify violation of electoral rules.

Campaign

Around 17.5 million of the country's 28.5 million population were eligible to vote.

PSUV

In order to revise the party's statutes, programme, and primary voting methods, the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela planned a congress of 772 members representing the country's 759 municipalities. These members were elected by the members of the party in an election held on 15 November 2009. At this congress, beginning on 21 November 2009 and ending in March 2010, members were to debate each weekend over the new standards of the party, in which are included voting and selection method for the upcoming parliamentary elections.

Opposition

The main Venezuelan opposition parties had boycotted the 2005 parliamentary election, unexpectedly withdrawing just before election day, despite a dispute over the voting process apparently having been resolved with the support of the Organization of American States (OAS). Eleven deputies subsequently defected to the opposition or declared themselves independent.

In June 2009, it was reported that the opposition parties were planning to create the Mesa de la Unidad Democrática (Coalition for Democratic Unity, MUD) a coalition that would include all of the opposition parties which might select unique candidates for the upcoming elections. A previous opposition umbrella group, the Coordinadora Democrática, had collapsed after the failure of the 2004 recall referendum.

By April 2010, the MUD included around 50 political parties, of which 16 were national in scope and the rest regional, and received support from some other social organisations and opinion groups. In addition, a number of the nine police officials imprisoned for participating in the 2002 Venezuelan coup d'état attempt, regarded by the MUD as political prisoners, were also nominated, in districts with a real chance of opposition success; winning would require their release due to parliamentary immunity.

The MUD is supported by the Movimiento 2D opposition movement led by El Nacional editor and proprietor Miguel Henrique Otero.

Events

In mid-August 2010 El Nacional sparked an international outcry when its frontpage publication of a graphic archival photo of bodies in a morgue, to illustrate a story about rising crime rates, led the government to temporarily ban such publications. El Nacional editor and proprietor Miguel Henrique Otero, leader of the opposition movement Movimiento 2D, said that "The editorial reasoning behind the photo was to create a shock so that people could in some way react to a situation that the government has done absolutely nothing about." The incident brought further international attention to the issue of Venezuela's crime rates (having already received widespread attention as a leading issue of public concern), and was followed by an article in The New York Times, reporting Venezuela's murder rate was higher than that of Iraq, although the comparison used Iraq Body Count's numbers derived from media reports rather than the World Health Organization's survey-based estimates, which are three times higher. A September 2010 poll conducted by Alfredo Keller & Associates confirmed that crime was the top concern for Venezuelans heading into the September 26 parliamentary elections, as it had been for some time.

At the end of August the death of Franklin Brito due to a hunger strike led to widespread domestic and international media coverage. He had, since 2004, launched a series of unsuccessful legal challenges and dramatic public protests (including a series of hunger strikes) against an alleged government confiscation of part of his farm. The government maintained that his protests were related to land legally owned by his neighbours, and that his final hunger strike came after the disputed land titles had been withdrawn from his neighbours. The government accused the Venezuelan opposition of acting like "vultures" and desiring Brito's death for their own political ends in the context of the coming election.

Opinion polls

Poll results are listed in the tables below in chronological order and using the date the results of the survey were published. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour.

Opinion polls vary widely, but the government-aligned GIS XXI (directed by former Chavez interior minister Jesse Chacón) consistently gives poll predictions more favourable to PSUV than other pollsters. GIS XXI's predictions for the February 2009 constitutional referendum just before polling day tallied closely with those of the independent Instituto Venezolano de Análisis de Datos (IVAD), and both closely matched the outcome (a nearly 10 percent margin of victory for approval); opposition-linked companies were predicting heavy defeat as late as December 2008.

In August 2010, the newspaper Últimas Noticias published what it said was the result of an unpublished opinion poll by Datanálisis, which showed the PSUV was likely to win 124 of the National Assembly's 165 seats, which would give it a two-thirds majority. Datanálisis later clarified that the results were a February 2010 extrapolation of the results of the last national election, the 2009 constitutional referendum.

Results

National Assembly

Complete results were available on 28 September, showing a turnout of 66.45%. Out of 165 seats, the PSUV won 96, the MUD 64, the PPT 2, and three others were reserved for indigenous parties.

The election saw the PSUV retain 58.18% of the Assembly seats. It thus lost its two-thirds majority in the assembly, and therefore would not be able to pass organic legislation on its own, without the support of at least some members of the MUD opposition. The PSUV also did not attain a three-fifths majority, which means it would not be able to pass enabling legislation without the aid of 3 non-PSUV members of the National Assembly.

The three seats reserved for indigenous peoples were elected from the Foundation for Integration and Dignification, the Autonomous Movement of Zulia and from CONIVE.

By state

Elected representatives

Latin American Parliament

Reaction

Chavez called the results a "solid victory."

The price on Venezuelan bonds increased on news of the election results, described by Bloomberg as "Chavez's worst setback at the ballot box since taking office in 1999".

Analysis

According to Reuters, "The new parliamentarians do not take their seats until January, so Chavez has a compliant Assembly for three months more to push through legislation."

After the election, the Spanish newspaper El País suggested that the PSUV and the MUD would have finished with 80 seats each had the elections been run under the previous system.

References

References

1. (October 2010). "Bienvenidos al portal del Consejo Nacional Electoral". Cne.gov.ve.
2. Devereux, Chrlie and Corina Rodriguez Pons. ''Business Week'', 27 September 2010. [http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-09-27/venezuela-s-opposition-pushes-back-chavez-in-vote.html "Venezuela's Opposition Pushes Back Chavez in Vote".]{{dead link. (April 2023)
3. Constitution of Venezuela, article 203 (page 75) http://www.analitica.com/bitblioteca/venezuela/constitucion_ingles.pdf {{Webarchive. link. (2006-04-06)
4. Dan Molinski, "Venezuela's Chavez Claims Popular-Vote Victory In Election", ''[[The Wall Street Journal]]'', http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100928-706902.html {{Webarchive. link. (2010-10-01)
5. "Venezuelan leader claims 'victory'", ''[[Al Jazeera Arabic. Al-Jazeera]]'', http://english.aljazeera.net/news/americas/2010/09/201092812726888590.html
6. "Venezuelan opposition alliance claims it won 52 percent of popular vote", ''[[El Universal (Venezuela). El Universal]]'', http://www.eluniversal.com/2010/09/27/en_pol_esp_venezuelan-oppositio_27A4527293.shtml
7. {{in lang. es "Sobre representación perjudica a la oposición", ''[[El Universal (Venezuela). El Universal]]'', http://eluniversal.com/2010/09/27/v2010_ava_sobre-representacion_27A4527053.shtml {{Webarchive. link. (2011-07-10)
8. [[European Union]], "Declaration by the High Representative on behalf of the European Union on the elections in the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela", http://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cms_data/docs/pressdata/en/cfsp/116787.pdf
9. [[Organization of American States]], "OAS Officials are Special Guests to Election Day in Venezuela", http://www.oas.org/OASpage/press_releases/press_release.asp?sCodigo=E-349/10
10. [[CNN]], [https://web.archive.org/web/20010506180750/http://edition.cnn.com/WORLD/election.watch/americas/venezuela.html Venezuela (Presidential)], accessed 27 September 2010
11. Donna Lee Van Cott (2005), ''From movements to parties in Latin America: the evolution of ethnic politics'', [[Cambridge University Press]]. p29
12. Crisp, Brian F. and Rey, Juan Carlos (2003), "The Sources of Electoral Reform in Venezuela", in Shugart, Matthew Soberg, and Martin P. Wattenberg, ''Mixed-Member Electoral Systems - The Best of Both Worlds?'', Oxford: [[Oxford University Press]], 2003. pp. 173–194(22)
13. Crisp and Rey (2003:175)
14. Carroll, Rory. (27 September 2010). "Venezuela election loosens Chávez's grip on power". [[The Guardian]].
15. Romero, Simon. ''The New York Times'', 26 September 2010. [https://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/27/world/americas/27venez.html?partner=rss&emc=rss "Venezuelans Vote for Legislators".]
16. link. (2012-06-07)
17. (April 2019)
18. Center for Strategic and International Studies, "PSUV Seeks to Maintain a Majority in Venezuela's Upcoming Legislative Elections", http://csis.org/blog/psuv-seeks-maintain-majority-venezuela%E2%80%99s-upcoming-legislative-elections {{Webarchive. link. (2010-10-18)
19. {{in lang. es ''[[El Universal (Caracas). El Universal]]'', 2 September 2010, [http://www.eluniversal.com/2010/09/02/eco_ava_cne:-oposicion-tiene_02A4420731.shtml CNE: Oposición tiene 60,3% de la propaganda electoral en TV]
20. Media controlled by the government gave "blanket coverage to the PSUV's campaign and token, hostile interviews to opposition candidates".''The Economist'', 23 September 2010, [https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2010/09/23/chavez-grapples-with-a-50/50-nation "Chávez grapples with a 50/50 nation".]
21. Chavez denied breaking the law, and said that Diaz could be prosecuted for making false accusations.Toothaker, Christopher. Associated Press, 2 September 2010. [https://web.archive.org/web/20100906230447/http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hnH8H_eglFrymD2NranoLmqWSN-QD9I067PG3 "Election official: Chavez breaking campaign rules".]
22. 14.Nov.2009 / 06:21 am / Haga un comentario. (October 2010}} {{Cite web). "listo para elección de delegados al Congreso Extraordinario". PSUV.
23. "1er Congreso Extraordinario del PSUV debatirá hasta el primer trimestre de 2010 | Venezolana de Televisión". Vtv.gov.ve.
24. pgbservices.com. "PSUV listo para Congreso Extraordinario - Noticia en ANTV". Antv.gob.ve.
25. In the run-up to the election, there were concerns about the use of digital fingerprint scanners as part of the voting process. On 28 November the [[National Electoral Council (Venezuela). National Electoral Council]] (CNE), in a decision brokered by the OAS, announced that it would not use the controversial machines. Despite this, several days later five opposition parties withdrew from the elections. "The move surprised election officials, and some reports indicate that international observers were unhappy that the opposition had reneged on a commitment to participate in the elections if the digital fingerprint machines were not used." - Mark Sullivan, Congressional Research Service, 28 July 2009, [https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL32488.pdf Venezuela: Political Conditions and U.S. Policy]. ([https://web.archive.org/web/20051226231657/http://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL32488.pdf Archive copy])
26. "Partidos de oposición conforman Mesa de la Unidad Democrática". Noticiasve.com.
27. The main parties included in MUD are the traditional [[Democratic Action (Venezuela). Democratic Action]] and [[COPEI]] (which held power from 1958 to 1998); the left groups [[Movement for Socialism (Venezuela). link. (2010-07-10)
28. {{in lang. es ''[[El Nacional (Caracas)
29. BBC, 18 August 2010, [https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-11018751 Venezuela bans 'violent' photos in newspapers]
30. [[CNN]], 18 August 2010, [http://edition.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/americas/08/17/venezuela.media.probe/index.html#fbid=vqKNdBhyH03&wom=false Venezuelan newspaper owner defends photo that spurred investigation]
31. [[Simon Romero]]. ''[[The New York Times]]'', 22 August 2010, [https://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/23/world/americas/23venez.html?_r=1 Venezuela, More Deadly Than Iraq, Wonders Why]
32. ''[[El Universal (Caracas). El Universal]]'', 3 September 2010, [http://english.eluniversal.com/2010/09/03/en_ing_esp_election-campaign-fo_03A4423171.shtml Election campaign for new National Assembly heats up] {{Webarchive. link. (2012-07-08)
33. Cawthorne, Andrew. ''[[Reuters]]'', 2 September 2010, [https://web.archive.org/web/20110924012904/http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFN0114626820100902?sp=true Venezuela says opposition sought protester's death]
34. {{in lang. es ''[[El Universal (Venezuela). El Universal]]'', 20 August 2010, [http://politica.eluniversal.com/2010/08/20/pol_art_datanalisis-niega-pr_2011494.shtml Datanálisis niega proyección de 124 curules para el PSUV] {{Webarchive. link. (2011-07-10)
35. (2010-09-27). "Poder Electoral Emitió Primer Boletín Oficial de Elecciones Parlamentarias". Consejo Nacional Electoral.
36. {{in lang. es Consejo Nacional Electoral, [http://www.cne.gob.ve/divulgacion_parlamentarias_2010/ Divulgación Elecciones Parlamentarias]
37. Including: [[A New Era]], [[Justice First]], [[Democratic Action (Venezuela). Democratic Action]], [[Copei]], [[For Social Democracy]], [[Project Venezuela]], Movimiento de Integridad Nacional-Unidad, [[Fearless People's Alliance. ABP]], Republican Movement, [[Radical Cause]], [[Movement for Socialism (Venezuela). Movement for Socialism]], [[Red Flag Party]], Unidos para Venezuela, [[Democratic Republican Union]], Emerging People, Solidaridad Independiente, Plataforma de Encuentro Social, Partido Auténtico Nacional, Confederación Democrática, Labour Movement, Venezuela de Primera and Visión Venezuela.
38. Toothaker, Christopher, The Associated Press, 27 September 2010.[https://web.archive.org/web/20100930170126/http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hnH8H_eglFrymD2NranoLmqWSN-QD9IG95980 The Associated Press "Chavez allies win congressional majority in vote".]
39. Jaramillo, Andrea. Bloomberg, 27 September 2010. [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-27/venezuela-bond-yields-fall-to-five-week-low-as-chavez-loses-congress-vote.html Venezuelan Bonds Gain as Chavez Loses Congressional Seats in Worst Setback.]
40. Cawthorne, Andrew. Reuters, 27 September 2010, [https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE68Q33O20100927 Analysis: Venezuela opposition buoyed for 2012 presidential race.]
41. (28 September 2010). "Chávez se atraganta con su ley electoral". El País.
42. Indeed, the number of seats which would have been obtained in a strictly proportional system are close to these numbers. If the percentage of the 2010 party list vote gained by each of the main party alliances were multiplied by 165, the number of seats contested in the Assembly, the PSUV would have won 79.54 seats, the MUD would have won 77.83 seats, and the PPT would have won 5.17 seats (these figures are presented as decimals to reflect that different proportional representation rounding methods might round these figures up or down, depending on the methodology used to round the value to a whole number). Multiplying the vote percentages instead by 162 (to reflect that three seats were elected separately by indigenous Venezuelans) would lower the results of the calculation to PSUV, 78.08 seats; MUD 76.42 seats; and PPT 5.09 seats. (Figures derived from the CNE official vote results.)