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2010 Oregon gubernatorial election

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2010 Oregon gubernatorial election

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FieldValue
election_name2010 Oregon gubernatorial election
countryOregon
typepresidential
ongoingNo
previous_election2006 Oregon gubernatorial election
previous_year2006
next_election2014 Oregon gubernatorial election
next_year2014
election_dateNovember 2, 2010
image1File:Governor Kitzhaber (cropped).jpg
image_size150x150px
nominee1**John Kitzhaber**
party1Democratic Party (United States)
alliance1Independent Party of Oregon
popular_vote1**716,525**
percentage1**49.29%**
image2File:Chrisdudley (cropped).jpg
nominee2Chris Dudley
party2Republican Party (United States)
popular_vote2694,287
percentage247.76%
map_image2010 Oregon gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
map_size260px
map_captionCounty results
**Kitzhaber:**
titleGovernor
before_electionTed Kulongoski
before_partyDemocratic Party (United States)
after_electionJohn Kitzhaber
after_partyDemocratic Party (United States)

Kitzhaber:

Dudley:
The 2010 Oregon gubernatorial election was held on Tuesday, , to elect the governor of Oregon to a four-year term beginning on . The incumbent governor, Democrat Ted Kulongoski, was ineligible to run due to term limits barring him from being elected to more than two consecutive terms.

The Democratic candidate John Kitzhaber, who had previously served two terms as governor from 1995 to 2003, was elected to a third term, earning a narrow victory over Republican candidate Chris Dudley and two minor party candidates. Kitzhaber's election marked the first time in Oregon's history that a person has been elected to a third term as governor.

Oregon first used its new cross-nomination system, a form of fusion voting, in the 2010 general elections. In this system, a candidate for partisan public office can be nominated by up to three political parties. Kitzhaber was nominated by the Independent Party of Oregon in addition to the Democratic Party.

Almost every opinion poll throughout the election season showed a statistical tie between the two, state Republicans saw this election as the best chance to win the governorship since the last Republican governor, Victor Atiyeh, was re-elected in 1982. Once polls closed on election day, Dudley had led in early vote counts, but Kitzhaber narrowly won due to wide margins in Multnomah and Lane counties. However, this remains the closest Republicans have come to winning the governorship since that election.

Democratic primary

Candidates

  • John Kitzhaber, former governor of Oregon
  • Bill Bradbury, former Oregon secretary of state
  • Roger Obrist

Polling

Poll sourceDate administeredJohn KitzhaberBill BradburyUndecided
url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100523115252/http://www.kptv.com/yourvote/23524358/detail.htmldate=May 23, 2010 }}May 8–10, 2010**53%**23%22%
Survey USAMay 7–9, 2010**59%**25%12%

Results

Results by county:

| | | | | ]]

Republican primary

Chris Dudley sign

Candidates

  • Chris Dudley, former professional basketball player
  • Allen Alley, businessman and deputy chief of staff to Governor Ted Kulongoski
  • Clark Colvin, business executive
  • William Ames Curtright
  • Bob Forthan
  • Darren Karr, small business owner
  • John Lim, former Oregon State Senator and unsuccessful nominee for the U.S. Senate in 1998
  • Bill Sizemore, 1998 Republican nominee for Governor of Oregon
  • Rex O. Watkins, real estate agent

Polling

Poll sourceDate administeredChris DudleyAllen AlleyJohn LimBill SizemoreUndecided
Davis, Hibbetts & MidghallMay 8–10, 2010**33%**23%8%6%24%
Survey USAMay 7–9, 2010**42%**24%8%8%14%

Results

Results by county:

| | | | | | | ]]

Independent Party primary

Oregon first used its new cross nomination system, a form of fusion voting, in the 2010 general elections. In this system, a candidate for partisan public office can be nominated by up to three political parties. As a result, the Independent Party of Oregon did not file a candidate and instead chose to hold a month-long online primary in July. In doing so, it became the first political party in the United States to conduct a binding statewide primary election entirely over the Internet, and it was the largest nominating process ever held by an Oregon minor political party. Republican Chris Dudley did not apply for the Independent Party nomination by the required date, so he was not on the ballot, but he could be written in.

Candidates

  • John Kitzhaber, former Governor of Oregon
  • Jerry Wilson, businessman
  • Richard Esterman, photographer

Results

General election

Voters' pamphlet for the 2010 general election

Candidates

  • Chris Dudley (Republican), former professional basketball player
  • John Kitzhaber (Democratic, Independent Party of Oregon), former Governor of Oregon
  • Greg Kord (Constitution), industrial piping designer
  • Wes Wagner (Libertarian), systems administrator

Campaign

Following the primaries, the two leading candidates, Dudley and Kitzhaber, campaigned separately throughout the state for the summer. Despite attempts by both campaigns to arrange a debate, the candidates could only agree on a single debate on September 30. Through the end of September, the Dudley campaign had raised $5.6 million, more than twice as much as the Kitzhaber campaign.

Throughout the last few months of the campaign, opinion polls showed a tight race with the lead apparently changing frequently. Due to the closeness of the race, President Barack Obama, for whom Oregon voted by a 16-percent margin in 2008, stumped for Kitzhaber; then headlined a rally at the Oregon Convention Center in Portland on .

Newspaper endorsements

Klamath Falls Herald and News Albany Democrat-Herald Grants Pass Daily Courier Ashland Daily Tidings --

NewspaperEndorsement
*The Oregonian* (Portland)Democratic Party (United States)}}" width="7px"
*Willamette Week* (Portland)Democratic Party (United States)}}" width="7px"
*Portland Tribune*Democratic Party (United States)}}" width="7px"
*The Register-Guard* (Eugene)Democratic Party (United States)}}"
*Statesman Journal* (Salem)Republican Party (United States)}}"
*Mail Tribune* (Medford)Democratic Party (United States)}}"
*The Bulletin* (Bend)Republican Party (United States)}}"
*East Oregonian* (Pendleton)Democratic Party (United States)}}"
*The Lake Oswego Review*Democratic Party (United States)}}"
*The News-Review* (Roseburg)Democratic Party (United States)}}"
*The Outlook* (Gresham)Democratic Party (United States)}}"
*The Daily Astorian*Democratic Party (United States)}}"
*Corvallis Gazette-Times*Democratic Party (United States)}}"
*News-Register* (McMinnville)Republican Party (United States)}}"
*The Sandy Post*Democratic Party (United States)}}"
*Beaverton Valley Times*Democratic Party (United States)}}"
*West Linn Tidings*Democratic Party (United States)}}"

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Cook Political ReportOctober 14, 2010
RothenbergOctober 28, 2010
RealClearPoliticsNovember 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal BallOctober 28, 2010
CQ PoliticsOctober 28, 2010

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s) administeredMargin of errorJohn
Kitzhaber (D)Chris
Dudley (R)Other candidate(s)Undecided
Davis & HibbittsOctober 30–31, 2010± 3.1%**46%**43%
Survey USAOctober 23–28, 2010± 4.2%**48%**41%2%8%
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 25, 2010± 4.0%46%**49%**3%3%
HibbittsOctober 24–25, 2010± 4.4%42%**45%**2%12%
Elway ResearchOctober 18–19, 2010± 4.4%**45%**44%3%5%
Public Policy PollingOctober 16–17, 2010± 2.8%**48%**47%5%
Survey USAOctober 12–14, 2010± 3.9%**46%**45%4%5%
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 10, 2010± 4.0%**48%**46%3%4%
Survey USASeptember 12–14, 2010± 4.2%43%**49%**5%3%
Riley ResearchAugust 31 – September 9, 2010± 5.0%**40%**39%5%16%
Rasmussen ReportsSeptember 8, 2010± 4.0%44%**49%**2%5%
Rasmussen ReportsAugust 22, 2010± 4.0%44%**45%**3%8%
Grove InsightAugust 18–21, 2010± 4.0%**44%**35%4%14%
Survey USAJuly 25–27, 2010± 4.2%44%**46%**7%4%
Rasmussen ReportsJuly 26, 2010± 4.0%44%**47%**5%4%
Magellan StrategiesJune 28, 2010± 3.2%40%**41%**10%9%
Davis, Hibbits and MidghallJune 21, 2010unk**41%****41%**6%12%
Rasmussen ReportsJune 17, 2010± 4.5%45%**47%**4%4%
Survey USAJune 7–9, 2010± 4.2%40%**47%**6%7%
Rasmussen ReportsMay 20, 2010± 4.5%44%**45%**4%6%
Rasmussen ReportsApril 26, 2010± 4.0%**41%****41%**4%4%
Moore InsightFebruary 20–21, 2010± 4.0%**45%**33%21%
Rasmussen ReportsFebruary 17, 2010± 4.5%**42%**36%7%15%

Results

Kitzhaber gives his victory speech after winning the Oregon governorship

By county

Dudley won 29 of Oregon's 36 counties. Kitzhaber won seven, including Multnomah County by a 43% margin of victory.

CountyJohn Kitzhaber
DemocraticChris Dudley
RepublicanGreg Kord
ConstitutionWes Wagner
LibertarianWrite-inMarginTotalVotes%Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%
Baker1,94926.8%**4,816****68.1%**1872.6%1662.3%210.3%-2,867-39.40%**7,276**
Benton**21,498****59.4%**13,76738.0%3991.1%4481.2%770.2%7,73121.36%**36,189**
Clackamas69,25044.3%**83,516****53.4%**1,6861.1%1,5471.0%2880.2%-14,266-9.13%**156,287**
Clatsop**7,654****51.3%**6,79245.5%1961.3%1661.6%370.2%8625.78%**14,913**
Columbia8,97344.4%**10,302****51.0%**4932.4%3681.8%540.3%-1,329-6.58%**20,190**
Coos10,45641.3%**13,652****53.9%**6182.4%5832.3%340.1%-3,196-12.61%**25,343**
Crook2,31426.1%**6,231****70.3%**1521.7%1441.6%210.2%-3,917-44.20%**8,862**
Curry3,98638.8%**5,761****56.0%**2752.7%2452.4%140.1%-1,775-17.26%**10,281**
Deschutes24,28938.1%**37,706****59.1%**8611.3%8151.3%1120.2%-13,417-21.04%**63,783**
Douglas14,07232.5%**27,438****63.3%**9522.2%8071.9%660.2%-13,366-30.84%**43,335**
Gilliam30832.0%**620****64.4%**252.6%70.7%20.2%-312-32.43%**962**
Grant74921.6%**2,576****74.3%**862.5%501.4%80.2%-1,827-52.67%**3,469**
Harney80023.8%**2,436****72.3%**762.3%481.4%80.2%-1,636-48.57%**3,368**
Hood River**4,778****56.7%**3,43440.7%951.1%1031.2%170.2%1,34415.95%**8,427**
Jackson*32,360*41.7%**42,715****55.0%**1,3891.8%1,1171.4%1090.1%-10,355-13.33%**77,690**
Jefferson2,13232.3%**4,240****64.2%**1101.7%1101.7%100.2%-2,108-31.93%**6,602**
Josephine11,55834.7%**20,025****60.2%**1,0183.1%6461.9%430.1%-8,467-25.43%**33,290**
Klamath5,82025.1%**16,295****70.4%**5602.4%4281.8%550.2%-10,475-45.23%**23,158**
Lake65821.0%**2,323****74.2%**802.6%642.0%60.3%-1,665-53.18%**3,131**
Lane**81,731****57.0%**57,39440.0%1,8551.3%2,0451.4%4880.3%24,33716.96%**143,513**
Lincoln**10,484****53.0%**8,54043.2%3471.8%3892.0%310.2%1,9449.82%**19,791**
Linn14,46634.8%**25,370****61.1%**8982.2%7081.7%1100.3%-10,904-26.24%**41,552**
Malheur1,88424.4%**5,440****70.4%**2463.2%1572.0%50.1%-3,556-45.99%**7,732**
Marion44,79544.4%**53,177****52.7%**1,5301.5%1,1921.2%2420.2%-8,382-8.30%**100,936**
Morrow85026.8%**2,184****68.8%**872.7%481.5%60.2%-1,334-42.02%**3,175**
Multnomah**198,157****70.6%**76,91527.4%2,1490.8%2,8791.0%7500.3%121,24243.17%**280,850**
Polk12,89943.4%**15,966****53.7%**4561.5%3361.1%670.2%-3,067-10.32%**29,724**
Sherman23826.3%**634****70.1%**151.7%171.9%10.1%-496-54.81%**905**
Tillamook5,07246.0%**5,604****50.8%**1631.5%1731.6%190.2%-532-4.82%**11,031**
Umatilla6,32132.1%**12,574****63.8%**4412.2%3201.6%470.2%-6,253-31.74%**19,703**
Union3,36631.6%**6,869****64.5%**2212.1%1651.5%310.3%-3,503-32.89%**10,652**
Wallowa1,08828.6%**2,581****67.9%**792.1%431.1%90.2%-1,493-39.29%**3,800**
Wasco4,02443.2%**4,938****53.1%**1611.7%1561.7%270.3%-914-9.82%**9,306**
Washington**92,811****49.6%**89,92648.1%1,9771.1%1,9831.1%3360.2%2,8851.54%**187,033**
Wheeler21628.6%**500****66.3%**222.9%152.0%10.1%-284-37.67%**754**
Yamhill14,51939.7%**20,893****57.2%**5701.6%4921.3%610.2%-6,374-17.45%**36,535**

;Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

  • Clackamas (largest city: Lake Oswego)
  • Columbia (largest city: St. Helens)
  • Marion (largest city: Salem)
  • Tillamook (largest city: Tillamook)
  • Wasco (largest city: The Dalles)

References

References

  1. Mapes, Jeff. (July 8, 2009). "Kulongoski will sign fusion voting bill". [[The Oregonian]].
  2. (November 3, 2010). "The Oregonian's prediction: John Kitzhaber wins Oregon governor race". [[The Oregonian]].
  3. [http://www.kptv.com/yourvote/23524358/detail.html Davis, Hibbetts & Midghall] {{Webarchive. link. (May 23, 2010)
  4. [http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=df7ad947-6d9f-4f4e-8763-49679c436bd1 Survey USA]
  5. "Official Results: May 18, 2010 Primary Election".
  6. "IPO primary FAQ".
  7. "E-voting not ready yet". The Oregonian.
  8. (July 31, 2010). "Oregon Independent Party Releases Results of its Private Primary". Ballot Access News.
  9. "Archived copy".
  10. Esteve, Harry. (October 1, 2010). "John Kitzhaber and Chris Dudley spar in Oregon gubernatorial campaign's only debate". [[The Oregonian]].
  11. Steves, David. (September 29, 2010). "Dudley doubles donor dollars". [[The Register-Guard]].
  12. (October 10, 2010). "Our endorsement: Kitzhaber for governor". [[The Oregonian]].
  13. (October 13, 2010). "Save Our State!". [[Willamette Week]].
  14. (October 14, 2010). "Let Kitzhaber steer state into future". [[Pamplin Media Group]].
  15. (October 17, 2010). "Kitzhaber for governor: Oregon needs experience, not a fresh face". [[The Register-Guard]].
  16. (October 10, 2010). "Chris Dudley worth taking a risk on: Candidate more likely to bring jobs, unity to state". [[Statesman Journal]].
  17. (October 17, 2010). "Governor: John Kitzhaber: Oregon's problems are too complex for a newcomer; the state needs his experience". [[Mail Tribune]].
  18. (October 15, 2010). "Pick Dudley for governor". [[The Bulletin (Bend).
  19. (October 17, 2010). "Kitzhaber brings a clear vision for Oregon's future". [[East Oregonian]].
  20. (October 21, 2010). "It's Kitzhaber by a nose in state gubernatorial contest". [[The Lake Oswego Review]].
  21. (October 24, 2010). "Kitzhaber's experience more valuable than fresh face". [[The News-Review]].
  22. (October 16, 2010). "Kitzhaber must use experience to bring change". [[The Outlook (Gresham).
  23. (October 7, 2010). ["John Kitzhaber for governor"](http://www.dailyastorian.com/main.asp?Search=1&ArticleID=73897&SectionID=23&SubSectionID=392&S=1}}{{Dead link). [[The Daily Astorian]].
  24. (October 21, 2010). "Kitzhaber best suited to lead Oregon". [[Corvallis Gazette-Times]].
  25. (October 30, 2010). ["Endorsement summary: November 2010 general election"](http://www.newsregister.com/article/45941-editorial+endorsement+summary+november+2010+general+election}}{{Dead link). [[News-Register (McMinnville).
  26. (October 20, 2010). "Kitzhaber must use experience to bring change". Pamplin Media Group.
  27. (October 14, 2010). "Kitzhaber earns slim nod thanks to his experience". Pamplin Media Group.
  28. (October 21, 2010). "Let Kitzhaber steer Oregon". Pamplin Media Group.
  29. "2010 Governors Race Ratings". [[Cook Political Report]].
  30. "Governor Ratings". [[Rothenberg Political Report]].
  31. "2010 Governor Races". [[RealClearPolitics]].
  32. "THE CRYSTAL BALL'S FINAL CALLS". [[Sabato's Crystal Ball]].
  33. "Race Ratings Chart: Governor". [[CQ Politics]].
  34. [http://news.opb.org/article/17231-eve-election-new-poll-shows-dead-heat-governors-race/ Davis & Hibbitts] {{Webarchive. link. (December 5, 2010)
  35. [http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=96e03446-a38c-4b68-aaa1-aa652fd9e342 Survey USA]
  36. [http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/oregon/toplines/questions_oregon_governor_october_25_2010 Rasmussen Reports]
  37. [http://www.kptv.com/yourvote/25517925/detail.html Hibbitts] {{Webarchive. link. (November 4, 2010)
  38. [http://www.oregonlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2010/10/poll_shows_kitzhaber_dudley_in.html Elway Research]
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  49. [http://www.magellanstrategies.com/web/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/Magellan-Oregon-Governor-Survey-Topline-Results-063010.pdf Magellan Strategies]
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  57. "Official Results: November 2, 2010 General Election".
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