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2010 New York gubernatorial election

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2010 New York gubernatorial election

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FieldValue
election_name2010 New York gubernatorial election
countryNew York
flag_imageFlag of New York (1909–2020).svg
typepresidential
ongoingno
previous_election2006 New York gubernatorial election
previous_year2006
next_election2014 New York gubernatorial election
next_year2014
election_dateNovember 2, 2010
image1File:Andrew Cuomo by Pat Arnow cropped.jpeg
image_size150x150px
nominee1**Andrew Cuomo**
running_mate1**Robert Duffy**
party1Democratic Party (United States)
alliance1{{collapsible list
titlestylefont-weight:normal;background:transparent;text-align:left;
title*Parties*
popular_vote1**2,910,876**
percentage1**63.05%**
popular_vote21,547,857
percentage233.53%
image2File:Paladino Gubernatorial 2010 (cropped).jpg
nominee2Carl Paladino
running_mate2Greg Edwards
party2Republican Party (United States)
alliance2{{collapsible list
titlestylefont-weight:normal;background:transparent;text-align:left;
title*Parties*
turnout35.5% 0.6pp
map_image2010 New York gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
map_size300px
map_captionCounty results
**Cuomo:**
**Paladino:**
titleGovernor
before_electionDavid Paterson
before_partyDemocratic Party (United States)
after_electionAndrew Cuomo
after_partyDemocratic Party (United States)

| Working Families | Independence | Conservative | Taxpayers Cuomo:
Paladino:
The 2010 New York gubernatorial election was held on Tuesday, November 2, 2010. Incumbent Democratic governor David Paterson, who was elected as lieutenant governor in 2006 as the running mate of Eliot Spitzer, and became governor in 2008 following Spitzer's resignation, initially ran for a full term but withdrew in February 2010. Democratic New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo defeated Republican Carl Paladino to become the next governor of New York.

The results of New York's gubernatorial elections are used to decide which parties receive automatic ballot access and in what order the parties are listed on the ballot. Parties whose candidates for governor receive over 50,000 votes on that party's line receive automatic ballot access for the next four years until the next gubernatorial election. This rule applies regardless of whether the party fielded its own candidate or cross-endorsed the candidate of another party. Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins received over 57,000 votes, allowing the New York Green Party to be listed on the ballot for the following four years.

This is the most recent New York gubernatorial election in which the winner won a majority of counties, as well as the last election without an incumbent running.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

  • Andrew Cuomo, Attorney General of New York, Former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, and son of former governor Mario Cuomo

Withdrew

  • David Paterson, incumbent governor of New York (withdrew February 26, 2010)

Failed to qualify

  • Jimmy McMillan, founder of the Rent Is Too Damn High Party
  • Joel Tyner, Dutchess County legislator Incumbent Democratic governor David Paterson had announced that he was running for election in 2009. Paterson had been elected lieutenant governor of New York in 2006, and was sworn in as governor on March 17, 2008. On September 18, 2009, advisors to President Barack Obama informed Paterson that the President believed Paterson should withdraw his gubernatorial candidacy and clear a path for "popular Attorney General Andrew Cuomo" to run. Paterson insisted he was still running, and reiterated his position on February 9, 2010. On February 26, 2010, however, Paterson withdrew his bid for a full term as governor of New York "amid crumbling support from his party and an uproar over his administration’s intervention in a domestic violence case involving a close aide".

Democratic New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo was widely rumored to be considering a 2010 gubernatorial bid. Though he had originally denied any interest, this did not stop rampant speculation that Cuomo would change his mind and enter the race. By December, Cuomo had a massive lead over Paterson in the polls, had higher approval and favorability ratings, and decisively beat any Republican challenger in every poll. After over a year of dodging speculation, Cuomo finally announced his candidacy on May 22, 2010, outside the Tweed Courthouse at New York's City Hall.

Dutchess County legislator Joel Tyner ran an unsuccessful petition drive that fell short of the 15,000 signatures necessary to get onto the primary ballot.

Rent Is Too Damn High Party founder Jimmy McMillan filed petitions to appear on the Democratic primary ballot and the Rent Is Too Damn High line. However, he put very little effort into the Democratic petitions, and the vast majority of the 13,350 signatures bearing his name were collected by Randy Credico, who had partnered with McMillan for a joint Democratic petition. Credico had counted on McMillan to collect 10,000 signatures to put his total at over 20,000, above the 15,000 required to get onto the ballot, but McMillan never followed through, leaving both candidates short of the necessary signatures to force a Democratic primary against Cuomo, who was thus unopposed. Credico, in response, called McMillan a "jack-off" and a "sorry ass", accusing him of "working against me", "turn[ing] in a wagonload of blank pages and then [leaving] Albany in brand new automobiles."

Polling

Poll sourceDates administeredDavid PatersonAndrew Cuomo
Siena PollJanuary 10–14, 201021%**59%**
QuinnipiacDecember 7–13, 200923%**60%**
Rasmussen ReportsJuly 14, 200927%**61%**
QunnipiacMay 5–11, 200917%**62%**
QunnipiacApril 1–5, 200918%**61%**
Siena PollMarch 13–16, 200917%**67%**
url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090305145218/http://www.maristpoll.marist.edu//nyspolls//NY090303.htmdate=March 5, 2009 }}February 25–26, 200926%**62%**
Siena PollFebruary 16–18, 200927%**53%**
QuinnipiacFebruary 10–15, 200923%**55%**
Siena PollJanuary 20–23, 2009**35%**33%
Siena PollDecember 8–11, 2008**49%**26%
Siena PollNovember 10–13, 2008**53%**25%
1=[Siena Poll](https://web.archive.org/web/20071206034014/http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/NYPoll.htm)}}July 7–10, 2008**51%**21%
Siena PollMay 12–15, 2008**42%**29%
Siena PollApril 12–15, 2008**35%**30%

Results

Cuomo was unopposed for the Democratic nomination.

Lieutenant governor

Unelected lieutenant governor Richard Ravitch did not seek election in 2010.

Cuomo selected Rochester mayor Bob Duffy as his running mate on May 26, 2010. Other Democrats mentioned as potential candidates include Ramapo town supervisor Christopher St. Lawrence, State Senator Andrea Stewart-Cousins (D-Yonkers), Buffalo mayor Byron Brown, State Senator Darrel Aubertine, and Canandaigua businessman Bill Samuels.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

  • Carl Paladino, Buffalo developer and political activist

Lost nomination

  • Rick Lazio, former congressman, 2000 Republican nominee for U.S. Senate, and official party designee
  • Warren Redlich, attorney and Libertarian Party gubernatorial nominee
  • Steven A. Levy, Suffolk County executive
  • Myers Mermel, real estate developer On September 21, 2009, former Long Island Congressman and 2000 Republican U.S. Senate nominee Rick Lazio declared his 2010 candidacy for governor of New York; Lazio made a formal announcement in Albany, New York the following day. Lazio was the frontrunner for the Republican nomination.

Other potential 2010 Republican gubernatorial candidates included former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Erie County Executive Chris Collins. In April 2009, a Quinnipiac poll showed Giuliani slightly ahead of incumbent David Paterson. Giuliani stated in June 2009 that he was considering running. In December 2009, Giuliani announced that he would not run and would instead back Lazio. On January 26, 2010, Collins announced that he would not run; he did not endorse Lazio, and instead encouraged the Party to choose someone else.

On March 19, 2010, Steve Levy, the county executive of Suffolk County, announced that he would run for governor as a Republican. Republican Party Chairman Ed Cox threw his support to Levy.

After Collins passed on the race, activist Rus Thompson persuaded developer Carl Paladino to consider running for governor. In March 2010, Paladino was strongly considering a run and was said to be willing to spend $10,000,000 of his own money on a campaign. He advised state Republican Party chairman Edward F. Cox of his intentions. Paladino announced his candidacy on April 5, 2010.

At the June 2010 Republican Convention, Lazio won the support of 59% of the delegates and was designated the Party's candidate for Governor. Levy "received 28 percent [of the vote] on the first ballot, squeaking above the 25 percent threshold needed to force a second vote on his authorization. While he [had] signed a Republican registration form, Levy [remained] an enrolled Democrat. As such, a separate vote authorizing his appearance in a primary was held: Levy garnered the support of 42.66 percent of the delegates, short of the 50 percent required". Paladino received eight percent of the vote, and real estate consultant Myers Mermel received four percent. On July 15, 2010, Paladino mounted a primary challenge against Lazio by filing petitions. He filed enough petitions to be placed on the ballot for the Republican primary.

By September 2010, Lazio and Paladino were nearly tied in the most polls, with Paladino having a significant edge in Upstate New York and Lazio leading heavily in Downstate New York. Paladino was supported heavily by the Tea Party movement. On September 14, 2010, Paladino upset Lazio by a nearly two-to-one margin in the primary.

Polling

Poll sourceDates administeredRick LazioSteve LevyCarl Paladino
Siena PollSeptember 7–9, 2010**42%**–41%
QuinnipiacJuly 20–26, 2010**39%**–23%
Siena PollMay 17–20, 2010**29%**14%16%
Marist PollMay 3–5, 2010**38%**22%13%
Siena PollApril 12–15, 2010**29%**15%13%
QuinnipiacApril 6–11, 2010**34%**11%11%
url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100531064239/http://maristpoll.marist.edu/326-cuomo-viewed-as-solution-%e2%80%a6-approval-rating-on-the-rebound/date=May 31, 2010 }}March 23–24, 2010**53%**21%–
Siena PollMarch 15–18, 2010**60%**19%–

Results

Republican primary results by county:

| | | | | | | ]]

Lieutenant governor

On the Republican side, Lazio endorsed Chautauqua County executive Greg Edwards as his choice for lieutenant governor on May 17, 2010. Tom Ognibene, former minority leader of the New York City Council, was Paladino's running mate. Other Republicans mentioned as potential candidates included Orange County executive Edward A. Diana, Monroe County executive Maggie Brooks, former New York Secretary of State Christopher Jacobs (Steve Levy's preferred running mate), Onondaga County executive Joanie Mahoney, 2006 lieutenant governor candidate C. Scott Vanderhoef (who instead ran for State Senate), and Myers Mermel (who later opted to run for governor instead). Edwards narrowly defeated Tom Ognibene, creating a split ticket in which Lazio's preferred running mate became Paladino's running mate in the general election.[[File:NewYorkRepublicanLieutenantGubernatorialPrimary2010.svg|thumb|300px|Republican primary results by county: | | | | | | ]]

Independents and third parties

Conservative Party

Lazio received the endorsement of the Conservative Party's executive committee in March 2010, with 14 party chairs in favor, four backing Steve Levy, and one (Erie County's Ralph Lorigo) backing Carl Paladino. At the Conservative Party convention in May 2010, Ralph Lorigo united with Steve Levy supporters to act as a placeholder on the ballot and earned 42% of the weighted ballot; by being a registered party member, he only needed 25% to force a primary election (something that Levy and Paladino, as a Democrat and Republican respectively, could not do). After Lorigo entered the gubernatorial race, Long demanded Lorigo's resignation; Lorigo responded by offering to wager the party chairmanship on the results of the race: If Lorigo won the primary, Long would resign and allow Lorigo (party second-in-command) to succeed him as Conservative Party chairman, but if Lazio won, Lorigo would resign his position within the Party.

On September 14, 2010, Lazio defeated Lorigo in the Conservative primary. Following Lazio's loss to Paladino in the GOP gubernatorial primary, Chairman Long indicated that he planned to move forward with Lazio; however, on September 27, 2010, Lazio confirmed that he would drop his bid for governor by accepting a nomination for a judicial position in the Bronx. The Conservative Party then nominated Paladino as its candidate for governor.

Results

Conservative primary results by county:

| | | | | | | | ]]

Nominee

  • Carl Paladino

Candidates

  • Rick Lazio, Republican nominee, won the primary but withdrew.
  • Ralph Lorigo, chairman of the Erie County Conservative Party.

Independence Party

The Independence Party of New York publicly endorsed presumptive Democratic nominee Andrew Cuomo prior to the party convention.

Nominee

  • Andrew Cuomo

Working Families Party

The Working Families Party was said to heavily favor Cuomo, but was reportedly concerned that the party's damaged reputation may cause Cuomo to decline any nomination from them. In somewhat of a surprise move, the party nominated its own members for all but one statewide elected office, and did not cross-endorse Democrats as usual. The party nominated United Auto Workers lawyer Kenneth Schaffer as its nominee for governor in June 2010. After the federal investigation against the party was closed with no charges, speculation has run rampant that the party will vacate the line in favor of Cuomo by nominating Schaeffer for a judicial position and offering Cuomo a Wilson Pakula, which the party did unanimously in September 2010.

Nominee

  • Andrew Cuomo

Libertarian Party

The Libertarian Party of New York chose Warren Redlich as its nominee at the state party convention on April 24, 2010.

Nominee

  • Warren Redlich, Guilderland Town Board member and criminal defense attorney.

Lost nomination

  • Kristin Davis, madam of the prostitution ring of which Eliot Spitzer was a client Davis refused to show up at the convention and as a result did not appear on the ballot.
  • Sam Sloan, author and board game expert.

Green Party

The Green Party of New York nominated national party co-founder Howie Hawkins, who had been a perennial candidate in state and federal elections since 2006, as its candidate at the party convention on May 15, 2010.

Nominee

  • Howie Hawkins

Rent Is Too Damn High Party

Jimmy McMillan, "Rent is Too Damn High"

The Rent Is Too Damn High Party, whose perennial New York City mayoral candidate was Jimmy McMillan, fielded him in the New York gubernatorial election in 2010.

Campaign signatures

The Paladino campaign submitted 30,000 signatures for its Taxpayers Party. Charles Barron submitted 43,500 signatures for the Freedom Party, though a fellow New York City councilman, Lewis Fidler, has already announced his intention to challenge Barron's signatures. The Davis campaign submitted 22,000 signatures, the Hawkins campaign filed 27,000, and the Libertarian Party claimed to have submitted over 34,000.

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Cook Political ReportOctober 14, 2010
RothenbergOctober 28, 2010
RealClearPoliticsNovember 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal BallOctober 28, 2010
CQ PoliticsOctober 28, 2010

Polling

Poll sourceDates administeredSample sizeMargin of errorAndrew Cuomo (D)Carl Paladino (R)OtherUndecided
Angus Reid Public OpinionOctober 28–29, 2010546 LV±4.2%**55%**38%5%––
RasmussenOctober 22, 2010943 RV±3.0%**51%**37%2%12%
The New York TimesOctober 17–19, 2010943 RV±3.0%**67%**24%2%12%
The New York TimesOctober 10–15, 2010943 RV±3.0%**59%**24%2%12%
Survey USA /GannettOctober 11–13, 2010633 LV±3.9%**59%**33%6%3%
Survey USA /GannettOctober 5–7, 2010627 LV±4.0%**57%**34%5%3%
Angus Reid Public OpinionOctober 5–7, 2010500 RV±4.5%**63%**32%6%––
QuinnipiacOctober 1–5, 20101,141 LV±2.9%**55%**37%2%6%
CNN /Opinion ResearchOctober 1–5, 2010585 LV±4.0%**55%**41%2%1%
CNN /Opinion ResearchOctober 1–5, 20101,315 RV±2.5%**65%**31%2%1%
Siena PollOctober 3–4, 2010636 LV±3.9%**56%**32%––11%
Public Policy PollingOctober 1–3, 2010592 LV±4.0%**53%**38%––8%
Marist PollSeptember 27–29, 2010591 LV±4.0%**53%**38%1%8%
Survey USA/GannettSeptember 20–21, 2010572 LV±4.2%**49%**40%8%3%
QuinnipiacSeptember 16–20, 2010751 LV±3.6%**49%**43%1%7%
Rasmussen ReportsSeptember 20, 2010500 LV±4.5%**54%**38%2%6%
QuinnipiacAugust 23–29, 20101,497 RV±2.5%**60%**23%1%14%
Siena PollAugust 9–16, 2010788 RV±3.5%**60%**27%––13%
QuinnipiacJuly 20–26, 20101,165 RV±2.9%**55%**25%1%16%
Rasmussen ReportsJuly 20, 2010500 LV±4.5%**58%**29%5%8%
Rasmussen ReportsJune 24, 2010500 LV±4.5%**55%**25%6%13%
Siena PollMay 17–20, 2010905 RV±3.3%**65%**22%––13%
Marist PollMay 3–5, 2010686 RV±4.0%**67%**22%––11%
Rasmussen ReportsApril 27, 2010500 LV±4.5%**55%**25%5%15%
QuinnipiacApril 6–11, 20101,381 RV±2.6%**60%**24%1%14%
Rasmussen ReportsMarch 29, 2010500 LV±4.5%**51%**28%6%15%
Rasmussen ReportsMarch 1, 2010500 LV±4.5%**56%**27%6%11%

with Collins

Poll sourceDates administeredAndrew CuomoChris Collins
Siena PollJanuary 10–14, 2010**65%**23%

with Lazio

Poll sourceDates administeredAndrew CuomoRick Lazio
QuinnipiacJuly 20–26, 2010**56%**26%
Rasmussen ReportsJuly 20, 2010**58%**27%
Siena PollJuly 12, 2010**60%**28%
Rasmussen ReportsJune 24, 2010**55%**28%
QuinnipiacJune 22, 2010**58%**26%
Siena PollJune 9, 2010**60%**24%
Siena PollMay 17–20, 2010**66%**24%
Marist PollMay 3–5, 2010**65%**25%
Rasmussen ReportsApril 27, 2010**56%**24%
Siena PollApril 12–15, 2010**61%**24%
QuinnipiacApril 6–11, 2010**55%**26%
Rasmussen ReportsMarch 29, 2010**52%**29%
Marist PollMarch 23–24, 2010**61%**30%
Siena PollMarch 15–18, 2010**59%**21%
Rasmussen ReportsMarch 2, 2010**55%**30%
Rasmussen ReportsJanuary 18, 2010**54%**35%
Siena PollJanuary 10–14, 2010**66%**24%
QuinnipiacDecember 7–13, 2009**62%**22%
Rasmussen ReportsNovember 17, 2009**57%**29%
Rasmussen ReportsSeptember 22, 2009**65%**26%
Marist PollFebruary 25–26, 2009**71%**20%

with Lazio and Paladino

Poll sourceDates administeredAndrew CuomoRick LazioCarl PaladinoOthers
Marist PollSeptember 23, 2010**52%**9%33%
Siena PollMay 17–20, 2010**43%**4%5%13%{{EfnDavid Paterson with 5%,
Rasmussen ReportsMarch 2, 2010**50%**19%15%

with Levy

Poll sourceDates administeredAndrew CuomoSteve Levy
Siena PollMay 17–20, 2010**65%**22%
Marist PollMay 3–5, 2010**63%**25%
Rasmussen ReportsApril 27, 2010**50%**27%
Siena PollApril 12–15, 2010**58%**23%
QuinnipiacApril 6–11, 2010**57%**24%
Rasmussen ReportsMarch 29, 2010**50%**26%
Marist PollMarch 23–24, 2010**65%**26%
Siena PollMarch 15–18, 2010**63%**16%

Collins v. Patterson

Poll sourceDates administeredDavid PatersonChris Collins
Siena PollJanuary 10–14, 2010**40%****40%**
Rasmussen ReportsDecember 22, 200938%**42%**

Giuliani vs. Paterson

Poll sourceDates administeredRudy GiulianiDavid Paterson
Marist PollSeptember 8–10, 2009**60%**34%

Lazio vs. Paterson

Poll sourceDates administeredDavid PatersonRick Lazio
Rasmussen ReportsJanuary 18, 201038%**45%**
Siena PollJanuary 10–14, 2010**42%****42%**
Rasmussen ReportsDecember 22, 200940%**43%**
QuinnipiacDecember 7–13, 2009**41%**37%
Rasmussen ReportsNovember 17, 200937%**41%**
MaristNovember 15, 200936%**39%**
Rasmussen ReportsSeptember 22, 2009**38%****38%**
MaristMay 4, 200937%**40%**

Results

Gubernatorial election in New York, 2010PartyCandidateRunning mateVotesPercentageSwing
Democratic*Andrew Cuomo*2,609,46556.52%1.82%
Working Families*Andrew Cuomo*154,8353.35%0.05%
Independence*Andrew Cuomo*146,5763.17%0.89%
**Total****Andrew Cuomo****Robert Duffy****2,910,876****63.05%****2.65%**
Republican*Carl Paladino*1,289,81727.94%4.40%
Conservative*Carl Paladino*232,2155.03%1.44%
Taxpayers*Carl Paladino*25,8250.56%
TotalCarl PaladinoGreg Edwards1,547,85733.53%6.41%
GreenHowie HawkinsGloria Mattera59,9061.30%0.41%
LibertarianWarren RedlichAlden Link48,3591.05%0.74%
Rent Is Too Damn HighJimmy McMillanJames D. Schultz41,1290.89%0.61%
FreedomCharles BarronEva M. Doyle24,5710.53%
Anti-ProhibitionKristin M. DavisTanya Gendelman20,4210.44%
* Scattering*4,8360.10%N/A
**Majority****1,363,019****29.52%**9.06%
**Totals****4,769,741****100.00%**
**Democratic hold**

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

  • Cattaraugus (largest municipality: Olean)
  • Chautauqua (largest municipality: Jamestown)
  • Erie (largest municipality: Buffalo)
  • Fulton (largest municipality: Gloversville)
  • Genesee (largest municipality: Batavia)
  • Niagara (largest municipality: Niagara Falls)
  • Schoharie (largest municipality: Cobleskill)
  • Steuben (largest municipality: Corning)
  • Tioga (largest municipality: Waverly)

Notes

References

References

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