2010 New Brunswick general election

Timeline

2006

• October 10, 2006 – Organizers for the Green Party of Canada in New Brunswick announce plans to form a provincial Green Party in time to field a full slate of candidates in this election.
• November 5, 2006 – Allison Brewer resigns as leader of the New Democratic Party. She will be replaced on an interim basis by Pat Hanratty and permanently upon the election of a new leader in late 2007.
• December 12, 2006 – An opinion poll conducted November 10 to December 7 by Corporate Research Associates showed the Liberals enjoying an unprecedented lead in opinion polls, standing at 65% in contrast to 27% for the Progressive Conservatives, 6% for the New Democrats and 2% for the Greens.
• December 13, 2006 – Bernard Lord resigns as leader of the Progressive Conservatives and announces he will resign his seat in the legislature on January 31, 2007.

2007

• March 5, 2007 – Liberal Chris Collins wins Lord's former seat in Moncton East changing the standings in the legislature to 30 Liberals, 25 Progressive Conservatives.
• April 17, 2007 – Progressive Conservatives Joan MacAlpine-Stiles and Wally Stiles cross the floor and join the Liberals changing the standings in the legislature to Liberals 32, Progressive Conservatives 23.
• May 29, 2007 – Government House Leader Stuart Jamieson tables Bill 75 which would fix election dates to the fourth Monday of September every four years beginning on September 27 in 2010.
• October 13, 2007 – The NDP elect Roger Duguay as their new leader.

2008

• May 17, 2008 – The Green Party of New Brunswick is formed. Mike Milligan is elected as the interim leader of the party until a convention can be held in the fall.
• October 18, 2008 – David Alward is elected as leader of the Progressive Conservative Party.
• November 3, 2008 – Progressive Conservative Jack Carr holds a seat previously held by fellow Progressive Conservative Keith Ashfield who was elected as Conservative MP for Fredericton restoring the standings in the legislature to 32 Liberals, 23 Progressive Conservatives.

2009

• March 9, 2009 – Liberal Burt Paulin wins a seat previously held by Progressive Conservative Percy Mockler changing the standings in the legislature to 33 Liberals, 22 Progressive Conservatives.
• December 25, 2009 – Premier Shawn Graham "says he's ready to fight the next election on his controversial plan to sell NB Power to Hydro-Québec."

2010

• January 4, 2010 – Justice Minister Michael Murphy unexpectedly resigns his seat to "spend more time with his family and return to practising law".
• February 5, 2010 – Cabinet Minister Stuart Jamieson is forced to leave his cabinet post for suggesting that the NB power deal be put to a referendum.
• March 24, 2010 – Premier Shawn Graham announces that the proposed sale of NB Power has been canceled.
• May 10, 2010 – Premier Shawn Graham shuffles the New Brunswick cabinet. Bernard LeBlanc is reinstated as minister of justice, and also named the first minister responsible for public engagement. Brian Kenny is promoted to the tourism portfolio. Cheryl Lavoie enters cabinet as minister of state for seniors. Donald Arseneault gains title of deputy premier.
• May 19, 2010 – Progressive Conservatives release Vision for Citizen Engagement and Responsible Government, a pre-campaign document that outlines the PC strategy to improve citizen engagement.
• June 9, 2010 – People's Alliance officially forms the newest N.B. political party under the leadership of former Tory Kris Austin.
• September 27, 2010 – David Alward is elected into office as Premier of New Brunswick.

Results

: = New party

Synopsis of results

: = Open seat : = Turnout is above provincial average : = Winning candidate was in previous Legislature : = Incumbent had switched allegiance : = Previously incumbent in another riding : = Not incumbent; was previously elected to the Legislature : = Incumbency arose from byelection gain : = Other incumbents renominated : = Previously an MP in the House of Commons of Canada : = Multiple candidates

Results by region

Results by place

Target ridings

The following is a list of ridings which were narrowly lost by the indicated party. For instance, under the Liberal column are the 10 seats in which they came closest to winning from the Conservatives, while under the Conservative column are the 10 seats in which they came closest to winning from the Liberals. Listed is the name of the riding, and the margin, in terms of percentage of the vote, by which the party lost.

These ridings are likely to be targeted by the specified party because the party lost them by a very slim margin in the 2006 election.

Up to 10 are shown, with a maximum margin of victory of 15%. No party or independent candidate, other than the Liberals or Progressive Conservatives, came within 15% of winning any seats.

• Indicates incumbent not running again.

To clarify further; this is a list of provincial general election winners with their party in parentheses, and their margin as a percentage of the vote over the party whose list the seat is on (not the same as the margin of victory if the party potentially "targeting" the seat in that list did not finish second in the previous election). "Won" means that the targeting party won the seat from the incumbent party. "Held" means the incumbent party held the seat.

The ridings of Moncton East, Moncton West, Restigouche-La-Vallée and Petitcodiac are also likely to be targeted by the Conservatives as all have switched to the Liberals since the 2006 election. Moncton East and Restigouche-La-Vallée were carried by the Liberals in by-elections while the MLAs for Moncton West and Petitcodiac crossed the floor from the PCs to the Liberals.

Opinion polls

Candidates

Retiring incumbents

The following sitting MLAs have announced that they will not seek re-election.

• Tony Huntjens, Progressive Conservative MLA for Charlotte-Campobello since 2006, and previously MLA for Western Charlotte from 1999 to 2006.
• Roly MacIntyre, Liberal MLA for Saint John East since 2006, and previously MLA for Saint John Champlain from 1995 to 1999 and 2003 to 2006.
• Jeannot Volpé, Progressive Conservative MLA for Madawaska-les-Lacs since 1995.
• Joan MacAlpine-Stiles, Liberal MLA (Originally Progressive Conservative) for Moncton West since 1999.
• Stuart Jamieson, Liberal MLA for Saint John-Fundy, first elected from 1987 to 1999, and re-elected in 2003.
• Eugene McGinley, Liberal MLA, first elected from 1972 to 1978 as MLA for Bathurst, and re-elected in 2003 as MLA for Grand Lake-Gagetown.
• Cy LeBlanc, Progressive Conservative MLA elected in 1999 and re-elected in 2003 in the Dieppe-Memramcook riding. He was re-elected again in 2006 in the Dieppe Centre-Lewisville riding.
• Mike Murphy, Liberal MLA, Moncton North. Serving, Minister of Justice, former Minister of Health.

Candidates by riding

Legend

• bold denotes cabinet minister or party leader
• italics denotes a potential candidate who has not received his/her party's nomination
• † denotes an incumbent who is not running for re-election

Northeast

|- | |Roy Boudreau 2,453 34.42% || |Greg Davis 3,914 54.92% | |Widler Jules 524 7.35% | |Lynn Morrison Hemson 236 3.31% | | ||

| |Joseph Elias 2,593 33.23% | |Ray Godin 1,413 18.11% | |Susan Smissaert 167 2.14% | | ||

| |Fred Albert 2,798 38.16% | |Serge Beaubrun 706 9.63% | |Mathieu LaPlante 179 2.44% | | ||

| |Nancy McKay 2,821 43.78% | |Sebastien Duke 620 9.62% | |Hazel Hachey 104 1.61% | | ||

| |Cheryl Lavoie 1,946 32.49% || |Ryan Riordon 2,456 41.01% | |Pierre Cyr 1,476 24.65% | |Patrice Des Lauriers 111 1.85% | | ||

| |Philip Chiasson 3,041 – (41.57%) | |Claudia Julien 406 – (5.55%) | |Mathieu Chayer 206 – (2.82%) | | ||

| |Alonzo Rail 2,304 – (31.74%) || |Paul Robichaud 4,272 – (58.84%) | |Armel Chiasson 684 – (9.42%) | | | | ||

| |Anike Robichaud 1,487 – (20.40%) | |Francois Rousselle 1,149 – (15.76%) | | | | ||

| |Norma McGraw 1,480 – (18.96%) || |Claude Landry 3,808 – (48.78%) | |Roger Duguay 2,518 – (32.26%) | | | | ||

| |Carmel Robichaud 2,546 – (37.36%) || |Serge Robichaud 2,908 – (42.67%) | |Marc-Alphonse Leclair 1,132 – (16.61%) | |Filip Vanicek 93 – (1.36%) | |Thomas L'Huillier (PANB) 136 – (2.00%) ||

| |Joan Cripps 2,615 – (39.44%) | |Kelly Clancy-King 510 – (7.69%) | |Ronald Mazerolle 216 – (3.26%) | | ||

| |John Foran 2,552 – (38.56%) || |Robert Trevors 3,187 – (48.16%) | |Douglas Mullin 379 – (5.73%) | |Dylan Schneider 175 – (2.64%) | |Frances Connell (PANB) 325 – (4.91%) ||

| |Rick Brewer 1,952 – (30.17%) || |Jake Stewart 3,792 – (58.60%) | |Jason Robar 200 – (3.09%) | |Jimmy Lawlor 204 – (3.15%) | |Wes Gullison (PANB) 323 – (4.99%) || |Rick Brewer |}

Southeast

|- || |Bertrand LeBlanc 3,442 – (46.03%) | |Jimmy Bourque 3,174 – (42.45%) | |Alida Fagan 861 – (11.52%) | | | | ||

| |Bruce Hickey 1,720 – (25.75%) | |Susan Levi-Peters 1,023 – (15.31%) | |Garry Sanipass 215 – (3.22%) | | ||

| |Martin Goguen 2,447 – (29.20%) || |Claude Williams 5,055 – (60.33%) | |Oscar Doucet 503 – (6.00%) | |Luc LeBreton 374 – (4.46%) | | ||

| |Janice Brun 2,121 – (24.81%) | |Yves Leger 669 – (7.82%) | |Natalie Arsenault 409 – (4.78%) | |Charles Vautour (Ind.) 107 – (1.25%) ||

| |Beth Barczyk 911 – (19.02%) || |Mike Olscamp 2,712 – (56.62%) | |Bill Evans 513 – (10.71%) | |Margaret Tusz-King 654 – (13.65%) | | ||

| |Fortunat Duguay 2,174 – (32.25%) | |Denis Brun 707 – (10.49%) | |Fanny Leblanc 435 – (6.45%) | | ||

| |Dave Maltais 3,429 – (34.91%) | |Agathe Lapointe 1,174 – (11.95%) | |Paul LeBreton 677 – (6.89%) | | ||

| |Karen Nelson 2,528 – (38.98%) | |Teresa Sullivan 626 – (9.65%) | |Roy MacMullin 637 – (9.82%) | | ||

| |Anne Marie Picone Ford 1,995 – (32.50%) || |Susan Stultz 2,983 – (48.59%) | |Shawna Gagne 580 – (9.45%) | |Carrie Sullivan 503 – (8.19%) | |Barry Renouf (Ind.) 78 – (1.27%) ||

| |Kevin Robart 1,912 – (36.54%) || |Marie-Claude Blais 2,349 – (44.90%) | |Jean Guimond 512 – (9.79%) | |Greta Doucet 367 – (7.01%) | |Carl Bainbridge (PANB) 92 – (1.76%) ||

| |Russ Mallard 2,538 – (30.77%) || |John Betts 4,171 – (50.57%) | |Cyprien Okana 809 – (9.81%) | |Mike Milligan 730 – (8.85%) | | ||

| |Wally Stiles 1,769 – (23.84%) || |Sherry Wilson 4,135 – (55.74%) | |Leta Both 666 – (8.98%) | |Bethany Thorne-Dykstra 849 – (11.44%) | | ||

| |Lana Hansen 1,626 – (23.47%) || |Bruce Fitch 4,357 – (62.89%) | |Darryl Pitre 457 – (6.60%) | |Steven Steeves 488 – (7.04%) | | ||

| |Claude Curwin 1,252 – (19.54%) || |Wayne Steeves 4,009 – (62.57%) | |Anthony Crandall 412 – (6.43%) | |Vernon Woolsey 448 – (6.99%) | |Lucy Rolfe (PANB) 286 – (4.46%) || |Wayne Steeves |} – Collins won the seat in a by-election on March 5, 2007. The seat was previously held by Progressive Conservative former premier Bernard Lord.

– MacAlpine-Stiles crossed the floor to the Liberals on April 17, 2007. She previously sat as a Progressive Conservative.

– Stiles crossed the floor to the Liberals on April 17, 2007. He previously sat as a Progressive Conservative.

Southwest

|- | |George Horton 1,418 – (21.14%) || |Bruce Northrup 4,476 – (66.73%) | |Robert Murray 487 – (7.26%) | |Jenna Milligan 327 – (4.87%) | | ||

| |Kit Hickey 1,668 – (22.28%) || |Bev Harrison 4,302 – (57.47%) | |Julie Drummond 1,193 – (15.93%) | |Pierre Roy 323 – (4.31%) | | ||

| |Mary Schryer 2,752 – (34.24%) || |Blaine Higgs 4,075 – (50.70%) | |Matt Doherty 911 – (11.33%) | |Mark Woolsey 300 – (3.73%) | | ||

| |Gary Keating 1,736 – (30.98%) || |Glen Savoie 2,913 – (51.99%) | |Lise Lennon 594 – (10.60%) | |Matthew Clark 187 – (3.34%) | |Glenn McAllister (PANB) 173 – (3.09%) ||

| |Victoria Clarke 1,694 – (28.40%) || |Margaret-Ann Blaney 3,374 – (56.57%) | |Pamela Scichilone 535 – (8.97%) | |Sharon Murphy-Flatt 361 – (6.05%) | | ||

| |Kevin McCarville 1,867 – (33.06%) || |Glen Tait 2,137 – (37.84%) | |Sandy Harding 1,338 – (23.69%) | |Ann McAllister 305 – (5.40%) | | ||

| |Ed Doherty 1,326 – (30.45%) || |Carl Killen 1,333 – (30.66%) | |Wayne Dryer 1,203 – (27.63%) | |Patty Higgins 236 – (5.45%) | |John Campbell (Ind.) 247 – (5.81%) ||

| |Dan Joyce 2,062 – (35.31%) || |Trevor Holder 2,926 – (50.10%) | |Jeremy Higgins 576 – (9.86%) | |Stefan Warner 192 – (3.29%) | |Lisa Cromwell (PANB) 84 – (1.44%) ||

| |Abel LeBlanc 2,287 – (33.81%) || |Dorothy Shephard 3,433 – (50.75%) | |Habib Kilisli 688 – (10.17%) | |Mary Ellen Carpenter 247 – (3.65%) | |Wendy Coughlin (PANB) 110 – (1.63%) ||

| |Jack Keir 1,815 – (28.74%) || |Jim Parrott 3,633 – (57.53%) | |David Sullivan 427 – (6.76%) | |Stephanie Coburn 222 – (3.52%) | |Edward Hoyt (PANB) 218 – (3.45%) ||

| |Sharon Tucker 2,286 – (36.90%) | |Sharon Greenlaw 305 – (4.92%) | |Burt Folkins 180 – (2.91%) | |Theresa James (PANB) 248 – (4.00%) ||

| |Annabelle Juneau 1,516 – (24.46%) || |Curtis Malloch 2,980 – (48.08%) | |Lloyd Groom 798 – (12.88%) | |Janice Harvey 500 – (8.07%) | |John Craig (PANB) 404 – (6.52%) || |Tony Huntjens† |}

Central

|- | |Georgina Jones 569 – (12.62%) || |Jody Carr 3,662 – (81.23%) | |Beau Davidson 277 – (6.14%) | | | | ||

| |Barry Armstrong 2,108 – (29.16%) || |Ross Wetmore 3,290 – (45.51%) | |J.R. Magee 237 – (3.28%) | |Sandra Burtt 175 – (2.42%) | |Kris Austin (PANB) 1,419 – (19.63%) ||

| |T.J. Burke 2,712 – (35.28%) || |Troy Lifford 3,656 – (47.56%) | |Dana Brown 592 – (7.70%) | |Jack MacDougall 727 – (9.46%) | | ||

| |Kelly Lamrock 2,586 – (34.16%) || |Pam Lynch 3,571 – (47.17%) | |Andy Scott 861 – (11.37%) | |Kathleen MacDougall 553 – (7.30%) | | ||

| |Greg Byrne 2,178 – (35.31%) || |Craig Leonard 2,437 – (39.51%) | |Jason Purdy 945 – (15.32%) | |Tracey Waite 608 – (9.86%) | | ||

| |Rick Miles 2,469 – (32.53%) || |Brian Macdonald 2,931 – (38.62%) | |Tony Myatt 1,220 – (16.07%) | |Jim Wolstenholme 903 – (11.90%) | |Jim Andrews (Ind.) 67 – (0.88%) ||

| |Larry DeLong 1,502 – (23.33%) || |Jack Carr 4,097 – (63.65%) | |Jesse Travis 547 – (8.50%) | |Ellen Comer 291 – (4.52%) | | ||

| |Winston Gamblin 1,486 – (22.95%) || |Carl Urquhart 3,614 – (55.82%) | |Sharon Scott-Levesque 1,012 – (15.63%) | |Jean Louis Deveau 362 – (5.59%) | | ||

| |Eugene Price 1,232 – (17.39%) || |Kirk MacDonald 4,486 – (63.33%) | |Genevieve MacRae 675 – (9.53%) | |Jarrod Currie 305 – (4.31%) | |Steven Hawkes (PANB) 386 – (5.45%) || |Kirk MacDonald |}

: – Carr won the seat in a by-election on November 3, 2008. The seat was previously held by fellow Progressive Conservative Keith Ashfield.

Northwest

|- | |Jeff Bradbury 710 – (10.22%) || |David Alward 4,673 – (67.27%) | |Conrad Anderson 280 – (4.03%) | |Todd Antworth 103 – (1.48%) | |Dale Allen (Ind.) 996 – (14.34%) David Kennedy (PANB) 185 – (2.66%) ||

| |Peter Cook 1,711 – (27.17%) || |Dale Graham 3,884 – (61.67%) | |Jacob Elsinga 319 – (5.07%) | |Tegan Wong-Daugherty 384 – (6.10%) | | ||

| |Larry Kennedy 2,039 – (40.05%) || |Wes McLean 2,684 – (52.72%) | |David Burns 109 – (2.14%) | |Wayne Sabine 118 – (2.32%) | |Carter Edgar (Ind.) 141 – (2.77%) ||

| |Ron Ouellette 2,715 – (43.60%) || |Danny Soucy 3,058 – (49.11%) | |Maureen Michaud 292 – (4.69%) | |Cécile Martel Robitaille 162 – (2.60%) | | ||

| |Burt Paulin 2,492 – (35.72%) || |Martine Coulombe 3,727 – (53.43%) | |Alain Martel 551 – (7.90%) | |André Arpin 206 – (2.95%) | | ||

| |Michelle Daigle 1,362 – (18.60%) || |Madeleine Dubé 5,551 – (75.81%) | |Michel Thebeau 226 – (3.09%) | |Michelle Simard 183 – (2.50%) | | ||

| |Jocelyn Lévesque 1,989 – (31.85%) || |Yvon Bonenfant 3,380 – (54.13%) | |Nicole Theriault 230 – (3.68%) | | | |Jean-Marc Nadeau (Ind.) 645 – (10.33%) || |Jeannot Volpé† |}

: – Paulin won the seat in a by-election on March 9, 2009. The seat was previously held by Progressive Conservative Percy Mockler.

References

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