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2010 Maine gubernatorial election

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2010 Maine gubernatorial election

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FieldValue
election_name2010 Maine gubernatorial election
countryMaine
typepresidential
ongoingNo
previous_election2006 Maine gubernatorial election
previous_year2006
election_dateNovember 2, 2010
next_election2014 Maine gubernatorial election
image_sizex150px
next_year2014
image1File:PaulLePage (cropped).jpg
nominee1**Paul LePage**
party1Republican Party (United States)
popular_vote1**218,065**
percentage1**37.6%**
map{{switcher
map_caption**LePage:**
**Cutler:**
**Mitchell:**
**Tie:**
titleGovernor
before_electionJohn Baldacci
before_partyDemocratic Party (United States)
after_electionPaul LePage
after_partyRepublican Party (United States)
image2File:Eliot Cutler (cropped) (1).jpg
nominee2Eliot Cutler
party2Independent
popular_vote2208,270
percentage235.9%
nominee4Libby Mitchell
party4Democratic Party (United States)
popular_vote4109,387
percentage418.8%
nominee5Shawn Moody
party5Independent
popular_vote528,756
percentage55.0%

|280px |County results |280px |Municipality results}} Cutler:
Mitchell:
Tie: The 2010 Maine gubernatorial election took place on November 2, 2010, to elect the governor of Maine. Incumbent Democratic Governor John Baldacci was term-limited and could not seek a third consecutive term. Primary elections took place on June 8, 2010. The candidates who appeared on the November ballot were (in alphabetical order by last name): Eliot Cutler (independent), Paul LePage (Republican), Libby Mitchell (Democratic), Shawn Moody (independent), and Kevin Scott (independent).

With 94% of precincts reporting on the day after the election, the Bangor Daily News declared LePage the winner, carrying 38.1% of the votes. Cutler was in second place with 36.7% of the votes (less than 7,500 votes behind LePage), while Mitchell was a distant third with 19%. This election was the first since 1990 that Maine elected a Republican governor.

Democratic primary

Candidates

On ballot

  • Patrick K. McGowan, former State Conservation Commissioner
  • Elizabeth "Libby" Mitchell, President of the Maine Senate and nominee for U. S. Senate in 1984
  • Steven Rowe, former Maine Attorney General and former state representative
  • Rosa Scarcelli, business owner

Write-in

  • Donna Dion, former Mayor of Biddeford. Did not appear on the ballot due to lack of petition signatures, but continued her campaign in the primary as a write-in candidate.

Withdrawn

  • Dawn Hill, State Representative. Hill withdrew from the race on January 1, 2010, citing the crowded field of candidates.
  • John G. Richardson, former Commissioner of Economic and Community Development and former Speaker of the House. Richardson withdrew from the race on April 26 amid allegations that some of his campaign workers had not followed proper procedures for collecting donations to qualify him for Maine Clean Election funding. The primary ballots had already been printed before Richardson withdrew from the race, so Richardson's name appeared on the ballot even though he was no longer a candidate.
  • Peter Truman (also known as Peter Throumoulos), former state representative and convicted forger. Did not appear on the ballot due to lack of petition signatures.

Declined

  • Brian Bolduc, state representative
  • Tom Allen, former U.S. Representative

Polling

Poll sourceDates administeredMitchellRoweScarcelliMcGowanUndecided
Pan Atlantic SMS GroupMay 21–29, 2010**13.3%**11.7%7.0%6.3%61.7%

Results

Results by county

| | ]] At 11:32 p.m. EDT, WCSH declared Libby Mitchell the winner of the Democratic primary.

Republican primary

Candidates

On ballot

  • Steve Abbott, former chief of staff for Senator Susan Collins
  • William Beardsley, former president of Husson University
  • Matt Jacobson, president of Maine & Company, a private business attraction organization; former President of the St. Lawrence & Atlantic Railroad
  • Paul LePage, Mayor of Waterville and general manager of Marden's Surplus & Salvage store chain
  • Peter Mills, State Senator and candidate for governor in 2006
  • Les Otten, founder of American Skiing Company and former Boston Red Sox co-owner
  • Bruce Poliquin, business owner/manager and economist

Declined

  • Peter Cianchette, United States Ambassador to Costa Rica and 2002 Republican nominee for governor
  • Kevin Raye, State Senate Minority Leader
  • Josh Tardy, State House Minority Leader

Polling

Poll sourceDates administeredOttenLePageMillsAbbottBeardsleyPoliquinJacobsonUndecided
MECPOMay 22-June 2, 201017.0%10.7%**22.1%**13.9%5.9%4.9%1.4%24.0%
Pan Atlantic SMS GroupMay 21–29, 2010**17.0%**10.3%8.4%8.3%3.6%3.3%2.0%47.0%

Results

Results by county

| | | | | | ]] At 11:19 p.m. EDT, WCSH declared Paul LePage the winner of the GOP primary.

Independents

Candidates on the ballot

  • Eliot Cutler, attorney, former staff member for U.S. Senator Edmund Muskie, and former adviser to President Jimmy Carter
  • Shawn Moody, business owner
  • Kevin L. Scott, business owner

Write-in candidates

  • John Jenkins, former state senator, former mayor of both Auburn and Lewiston, and a 2002 gubernatorial candidate. Jenkins, who won his most recent mayoral campaign by write-in, declared he would run for Governor of Maine if 5,000 people followed his Facebook fan page within 45 days.
  • Beverly Cooper-Pete. Did not appear on the ballot due to lack of petition signatures, but continued her campaign as a write-in candidate.

Disqualified candidates

  • Alex Hammer, business owner and self-published author. Did not appear on the ballot due to not meeting the deadline for turning in petition signatures. Hammer attempted to turn in some of the signatures electronically, but the Secretary of State ruled that such methods were not allowed. Hammer filed suit to appear on the ballot in Penobscot County Superior Court on June 28, 2010. On September 28, 2010, the judge upheld the Secretary of State's decision.

Withdrawn

  • Samme Bailey. Did not appear on the ballot due to lack of petition signatures.
  • Augustus Edgerton. Did not appear on the ballot due to lack of petition signatures.
  • Michael Heath, former leader of the Christian Civic League of Maine (now known as the Maine Family Policy Council). Withdrew from the race due to lack of petition signatures.
  • John Whitcomb. Did not appear on the ballot due to lack of petition signatures.

Maine Green Independent Party

The Maine Green Independent Party did not have a gubernatorial candidate on the ballot, as no candidate collected required number of signatures.

Withdrawn

  • Lynne Williams, attorney and former state chair of the Maine Green Independent Party. On March 15, 2010, Lynne Williams announced her withdrawal from the campaign, citing a lack of clean elections funds and qualifying signatures.
  • Patrick Quinlan, political activist, author, and lone legislative aide of Maine Green Independent Party caucus in state House of Representatives for 2004 and 2005; former campaign manager and consultant for Green state representative John Eder

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Cook Political ReportOctober 14, 2010
RothenbergOctober 28, 2010
RealClearPoliticsNovember 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal BallOctober 28, 2010
CQ PoliticsOctober 28, 2010

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorPaul LePage (R)Libby Mitchell (D)Eliot Cutler (I)Shawn Moody (I)Kevin Scott (I)Undecided
MPRC/Down East MagazineOctober 28–30, 2010546± 4.19%**39%**24%29%4%1%2%
Critical Insights/MaineToday MediaOctober 27–28, 2010621± 4%**40%**21%21%4%1%11%
Pan Atlantic SMSOctober 25–28, 2010400± 4.9%**38.6%**21.8%30.6%2.8%1.1%7.3%
Public Policy PollingOctober 26–28, 20101,812± 2.3%**40%**24%28%4%1%2%
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 26, 2010500± 4.5%**40%**26%26%--5%
Critical InsightsOctober 13–17, 2010600± 4%**32%**20%19%5%1%21%
Pan Atlantic SMSOctober 11–15, 2010501± 4.4%**32.9%**28.0%14.0%4.6%0.4%20.2%
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 12, 2010500± 4.5%**35%**32%21%**6%
Critical Insights/MaineToday MediaOctober 10–11, 2010605± 4%**32%**26%11%5126%
Pine Tree Politics/Maine Center for Public OpinionOctober 4–7, 2010679± 3.76%**29.6%**28.7%11.1%4.9%1.6%24.1%
Critical Insights/MaineToday MediaSeptember 27, 2010405± 4.9%29%**30%**9%5%0%26%
Rasmussen ReportsSeptember 20, 2010500± 4.5%**45%**27%14%**10%
Critical Insights/MaineToday MediaSeptember 13, 2010603± 4%**38%**25%11%4%1%21%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 2–6, 20101,468± 2.6%**43%**29%11%5%1%12%
Rasmussen ReportsAugust 12, 2010500± 4.5%**38%**30%16%**11%
Rasmussen ReportsJuly 14, 2010500± 4.5%**39%**31%15%**12%
Rasmussen ReportsJune 10, 2010500± 4.5%**43%**36%7%**14%

** Shawn Moody and Kevin Scott, two Independent candidates who appeared on the ballot, were not offered as choices in the Rasmussen polls.*

Results

Despite polling in the low teens as late as mid-October, Cutler surged in the final weeks of the campaign to surpass Mitchell and finish second. LePage won with only 37.6% of the vote, the second-lowest percentage for any winning Maine gubernatorial candidate behind independent Angus King's 35.7% in 1994. LePage was considered to have benefitted from vote splitting between the Democrat Mitchell and the Democrat-turned-independent Cutler. Mitchell would ultimately win just 18.8% of the vote, carrying only Kittery and Ogunquit in the extreme south of the state, the Penobscot Indian Island Reservation, and a handful of staunchly Democratic municipalities in northern Aroostook County near the Canadian border. Cutler carried many other traditionally Democratic areas of the state, such as the Greater Portland area and Mount Desert Island. Mitchell's performance was the worst for any Democratic gubernatorial candidate since 1998, when Democrat Thomas J. Connolly would win just 12% of the vote in the midst of King's 16-county landslide re-election. This election remains the last time the Democratic nominee failed to carry a single county in a Maine gubernatorial election.

In addition, a number of municipalities and voting precincts finished as exact ties in official results: the municipalities of Bancroft, Dallas Plantation, Gilead, Madrid, Orient, Vanceboro, and Wesley, finished as exact ties between LePage and Cutler, while a precinct for voters in unincorporated eastern Aroostook County finished as a tie between Cutler and fellow independent Shawn Moody, with each receiving one vote.

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

  • Androscoggin (largest city: Lewiston)
  • Aroostook (largest city: Presque Isle)
  • Kennebec (largest city: Augusta)
  • Lincoln (Largest city: Waldoboro)
  • Oxford (largest town: Rumford)
  • Penobscot (largest city: Bangor)
  • Waldo (Largest city: Belfast)
  • York (largest town: Biddeford)

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Independent

  • Cumberland (largest municipality: Portland)
  • Hancock (largest municipality: Ellsworth)
  • Knox (largest municipality: Rockland)
  • Sagadahoc (largest town: Bath)

Aftermath

Paul LePage and Eliot Cutler would face off again in 2014, though Cutler would ultimately garner just 8% of the vote in that election. LePage would win re-election that year with over 48% of the vote, his closest opponent being Democrat Mike Michaud, who received 43% of the vote. In 2022, Cutler would be arrested for possession of child pornography, resulting in him serving seven months in jail and being required to register as a sex offender for the rest of his life.

Shawn Moody, who finished the 2010 election with 5% of the vote as an independent, would become a Republican in 2017. He was the Republican nominee for governor in 2018, an election he would lose to Democrat Janet Mills.

References

References

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  93. Shepherd, Michael. (2022-03-25). "2-time Maine gubernatorial candidate Eliot Cutler arrested on child porn charges".
  94. (2024-01-18). "Eliot Cutler released early after serving 7 months, jail official says".
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