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2010 Colombian presidential election

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2010 Colombian presidential election

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FieldValue
countryColombia
typepresidential
previous_election2006 Colombian presidential election
previous_year2006
next_election2014 Colombian presidential election
next_year2014
election_date30 May 2010 (first round)
20 June 2010 (second round)
turnout49.30% (first round)
44.35% (second round)
image1Juan Manuel Santos and Lula (cropped).jpg
nominee1**Juan Manuel Santos**
party1Social Party of National Unity
running_mate1**Angelino Garzón**
popular_vote1**9,028,943**
percentage1**69.13%**
image2Antanas Mockus (4) (cropped).jpg
nominee2Antanas Mockus
party2Green Party
running_mate2Sergio Fajardo
popular_vote23,587,975
percentage227.47%
map_captionSecond round results by department
map_imageColombian Presidential Election Results, 2010.svg
titlePresident
before_electionÁlvaro Uribe
before_partyColombia First
after_electionJuan Manuel Santos
after_partySocial Party of National Unity

20 June 2010 (second round) 44.35% (second round)

Presidential elections were held in Colombia in 2010. They took place under a two-round system, with an initial vote held on 30 May and a second poll held three weeks later on 20 June. A referendum proposal that would have allowed incumbent President Álvaro Uribe the opportunity to run for a third term was rejected by the Constitutional Court of Colombia in a 7–2 ruling on 26 February 2010. Because no candidate received a majority (more than one-half) of the votes cast in the 30 May poll, the candidates with the two highest vote totals competed in a runoff election on 20 June: Juan Manuel Santos of the liberal-conservative Social Party of National Unity which unites supporters of former President Uribe, and Antanas Mockus from the Green Party. Santos won the election with 69% of the votes.

Candidates

Government group

In 2002, Álvaro Uribe of the Colombia First party was elected president with 53.1 per cent of the vote, breaking the two-party system that ruled the country since 1958, with the promise of ending the armed conflict that haunts the country since 1964 by strengthening the Armed Forces. In 2006, he managed to change the Constitution in order to run for a second consecutive term. After a practically mute campaign, Uribe won the election with 62.2 per cent of the vote, followed by Carlos Gaviria of the Alternative Democratic Pole with a distant 22 per cent.

In 2007, Luis Guillermo Giraldo, leader of the pro-Uribe Party of the U, announced he would create the "promoters' committee", a group charged with gathering signatures to call a referendum on whether Uribe should be allowed to run for a third term in office. In September 2009, Congress approved the referendum bill in a late-night voting boycotted by members of the opposition. On 26 February 2010, the Constitutional Court voted against the referendum bill. Immediately after the ruling, former defence minister Juan Manuel Santos confirmed that he would become a presidential candidate. Another Uribist candidate was Germán Vargas Lleras of the Radical Change party. Former Colombian ambassador to the United Kingdom, Noemí Sanín, and former agriculture minister Andrés Felipe Arias, two of the closest Uribe allies, were seeking nomination by the Conservative Party. Sanín was nominated.

Opposition group

Two of the opposition candidates were Rafael Pardo of the Liberal Party and Gustavo Petro of the Alternative Democratic Pole. Álvaro Leyva, a Uribe opponent, was seeking the presidential nomination by the Conservative Party.

On 2 October 2009, the Green Party was officially created. It nominated its presidential candidate on a primary ballot that took place on 14 March 2010, the same day as the legislative election. The contenders were three former Bogotá mayors: Enrique Peñalosa, Antanas Mockus, and Luis Eduardo Garzón. The Greens seek to be a moderate force in what they called "a polarized" political situation, calling themselves "Post-Uribists." Mockus was chosen as their candidate. Former Medellín mayor Sergio Fajardo joined him as his running mate on 5 April 2010, after missing the requirements to become a presidential candidate himself.

Opinion polls

First round

DateInstituteCandidateUndecided
(Ns/Nr)
V. NoneSourceRafael PardoGustavo PetroGermán Vargas LlerasSergio FajardoJuan Manuel SantosAntanas MockusNoemí SanínRóbinson DeviaJaime AraújoJairo Calderón
24 March 2010Invamer Gallup5.1%6.3%6.2%6.1%34.2%10.4%23.3%0%0%0%8.4%
26 March 2010Datexco5.5%7.1%6.6%4.4%34.1%8.9%21.7%0%0.2%0.1%11.4%
27 March 2010Ipsos Napoleón Franco4%6%8%5%36%9%17%1%0%0%14%
27 March 2010Centro Nacional de Consultoría3.4%3.6%6.5%3.6%28.6%11.3%21.9%0%0%0%21.1%
8 April 2010Centro Nacional de Consultoría5%6%3%-37%22%20%0%0%0%7%
9 April 2010Datexco5.2%3.1%3%-29.5%24.8%16.4%0%0%0%17.2%
15 April 2010Centro Nacional de Consultoría4%4%2%-36%29%19%0%1%0%5%
16 April 2010Ipsos Napoleón Franco5%4%3%-30%20%12%1%5%5%15%url=http://www.semana.com/noticias-elecciones-2010/habria-segunda-vuelta-santos-mockus-segun-gran-encuesta/137632.aspxtitle=Habría segunda vuelta Santos – Mockus, según Gran Encuestaeditor=Revista Semanadate=16 April 2010access-date=27 April 2010archive-date=19 April 2010archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100419110236/http://www.semana.com/noticias-elecciones-2010/habria-segunda-vuelta-santos-mockus-segun-gran-encuesta/137632.aspxurl-status=dead}}
22 April 2010Centro Nacional de Consultoría5%5%4%-35%34%12%0%1%0%3%url=http://www.cmi.com.co/?nt=43154title=GRAN ENCUESTA CM&: Antanas Mockus ganaría la Presidencia si la segunda vuelta fuera mañanaeditor=CM&date=22 April 2010}}
26 April 2010Ipsos Napoleón Franco3%5%3%-29%38%11%0%1%0%10%url=http://www.semana.com/noticias-elecciones-2010/mockus-38-santos-29-primera-mockus-50-santos-37-segunda/138145.aspxtitle=Mockus 38% – Santos 29%, en primera; Mockus 50% – Santos 37%, en segundaeditor=Semanadate=26 April 2010access-date=27 April 2010archive-date=30 April 2010archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100430164214/http://www.semana.com/noticias-elecciones-2010/mockus-38-santos-29-primera-mockus-50-santos-37-segunda/138145.aspxurl-status=dead}}
28 April 2010Invamer Gallup5.7%5.0%3.6%-34.2%31.6%16.2%0%0.1%0%3.5%url=http://www.caracoltv.com/node/176594title=Santos ganaría en primera vuelta y Mockus, en segundaeditor=Caracol Televisióndate=28 April 2010access-date=30 April 2010archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100501234959/http://www.caracoltv.com/node/176594archive-date=1 May 2010url-status=deaddf=dmy-all}}
29 April 2010Centro Nacional de Consultoría3%5%4%-34%39%11%0%0%0%4%url=http://www.cmi.com.co/?nt=43507title=Candidato Antanas Mockus encabeza nueva encuesta de CM& y el Centro Nacional de Consultoríaeditor=Noticiero CM&date=29 April 2010}}
30 April 2010Datexco2.3%2.9%3.3%-26.7%38.7%9.8%0%0%0%16.3%url=http://www.eltiempo.com/elecciones2010/encuesta-de-datexco_7688488-1title=Mockus tendría el 41,5% de intención de voto en segunda vuelta y Santos el 29%, según Datexcoeditor=El Tiempodate=30 April 2010}}
6 May 2010Centro Nacional de Consultoría3%5%5%-34%38%11%0%0%0%4%url=http://elespectador.com/noticias/politica/articulo201878-nueva-encuesta-da-mockus-una-ventaja-de-cuatro-puntos-sobre-santostitle=Nueva encuesta da a Mockus una ventaja de cuatro puntos sobre Santoseditor=El Espectadordate=6 May 2010}}
7 May 2010Datexco1.4%4.2%3.1%-25.2%37.7%6.7%0%0%0%21.7%url=http://wradio.com.co/nota.aspx?id=1230566title=Antanas Mockus con un 37,7% encabeza intención de voto, revela encuesta de Datexcoeditor=W Radiodate=7 May 2010access-date=8 May 2010archive-date=9 October 2011archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20111009015039/http://wradio.com.co/nota.aspx?id=1230566url-status=dead}}
9 May 2010Ipsos Napoleón Franco4%4%3%-35%34%8%0%0%0%12%url=http://www.semana.com/noticias-nacion/empatados/138625.aspxtitle=¡Empatados!editor=Semanadate=9 May 2010access-date=9 May 2010archive-date=10 May 2010archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100510173914/http://www.semana.com/noticias-nacion/empatados/138625.aspxurl-status=dead}}
13 May 2010Centro Nacional de Consultoría3%4%4%-38%36%9%0%0%0%6%url=http://www.cmi.com.co/default.asp?nt=44171title=Nueva gran encuesta presidencial CM& – Centro Nacional de Consultoríaeditor=CM&date=13 May 2010access-date=17 May 2010archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110707052745/http://www.cmi.com.co/default.asp?nt=44171archive-date=7 July 2011url-status=deaddf=dmy-all}}
14 May 2010Datexco3.1%7.5%4.3%-29.3%32.8%5.6%0%0.4%0%13.8%url=http://www.caracol.com.co/nota.aspx?id=1298525archive-url=https://archive.today/20130101163353/http://www.caracol.com.co/nota.aspx?id=1298525url-status=deadarchive-date=1 January 2013title=Nueva encuesta de Datexco mantiene en primer lugar a Mockuseditor=Caracol Radiodate=14 May 2010}}
19 May 2010Invamer Gallup3.8%7.3%3.8%-37.5%35.4%8.8%0.1%0.2%0%3.1%url=http://www.eltiempo.com/elecciones2010/santos-con-el-375-y-mockus-con-el-354-encabezan-intencion-de-voto-encuesta-invamer-gallup_7717085-1title=Santos, con el 37,5%, y Mockus, con el 35,4%, encabezan intención de voto: encuesta Invamer Gallupeditor=El Tiempodate=19 May 2010}}
20 May 2010University of Medellin2.4%5.5%3.6%-32.9%37.4%8.1%0.4%0.2%0.1%6.9%
20 May 2010Centro Nacional De Consultoría4%5%4%-39%34%9%0%0%0%4%url=http://www.eltiempo.com/elecciones2010/santos-39-mockus-34-segun-la-mas-reciente-encuesta-del-centro-nacional-de-consultoria_7718316-1title=Santos 39%; Mockus 34%, según la más reciente encuesta del centro Nacional de Consultoríaeditor=El Tiempodate=20 May 2010}}
21 May 2010Datexco2%5%3%-35%34%9%0%0%0%12%
22 May 2010Ipsos Napoleón Franco3%6%5%-34%32%6%0%0%0%14%url=http://www.elespectador.com/noticias/politica/articulo-204600-santos-ganador-primera-vuelta-mientras-mockus-haria-segundatitle=Santos ganador en primera vuelta mientras Mockus lo haría en la segundaeditor=El Espectadordate=22 May 2010}}

Second round: Mockus vs. Santos

DateInstituteCandidateUndecided
(Ns/Nr)
V. NoneSourceJuan Manuel SantosAntanas Mockus
15 April 2010Centro Nacional de Consultoría49%44%7%
16 April 2010Ipsos Napoleón Franco45%37%18%
22 April 2010Centro Nacional de Consultoría44%50%6%
26 April 2010Ipsos Napoleón Franco37%50%13%
28 April 2010Invamer Gallup42.2%47.9%9.9%
29 April 2010Centro Nacional de Consultoría42%53%5%
30 April 2010Datexco29%41.5%29.5%
6 May 2010Centro Nacional de Consultoría43%50%7%
7 May 2010Datexco30.5%52%17.5%
9 May 2010Ipsos Napoleón Franco41%48%11%
13 May 2010Centro Nacional de Consultoría47%47%6%
14 May 2010Datexco33.6%47.9%17.5%
May 19, 2010Invamer Gallup42.2%48.5%9.3%
20 May 2010University of Medellin36%41.4%22.6%
20 May 2010Centro Nacional de Consultoría47%46%7%
21 May 2010Datexco44%45%11%
22 May 2010Ipsos Napoleón Franco40%45%15%
3 June 2010Centro Nacional de Consultoría61.6%29.8%5.8%

Conduct

On election day seven Colombian security services personnel were killed and eight were missing; parallels were drawn with FARC attacks and Santos' tenure as Defense Minister.

Results

First round results by department

No candidate received an outright majority in the first round vote held on 30 May. Santos and Mockus faced one another in the runoff election on 20 June, leading to the election of Juan Manuel Santos as the next Colombian President.

Santos achieved a landslide victory, with 69 per cent of the votes. Mockus got 27.51 per cent of votes. This was the largest margin of victory for a president in the democratic period of Colombia's history. Santos won 32 of the country's 33 electoral districts. His allies have an overwhelming majority in the Colombian Congress. Santos vowed to continue his predecessor's hardline stance against the country's Marxist rebels. He paraphrased Isaac Newton – "If we have come far it's because we are standing on the shoulders of giants" – and said he would rid Colombia of what he described as the "nightmare of violence".

The United States State Department said it was "pleased" with the election of Santos and praised the "spirited debate" before the runoff and Colombia's "longstanding commitment to democratic principles".

References

References

  1. Maximiliano Herrera. "Electoral Calendar- world elections, US elections, presidential election, world parties". Mherrera.org.
  2. Markey, Patrick. (2010-02-26). "Colombia's Uribe blocked from re-election". Reuters.
  3. {{usurped
  4. "Santos, Sanín Could Go to Run-off in Colombia: Angus Reid Global Monitor". Angus-reid.com.
  5. (24 March 2010). "Primera gran encuesta de medios sobre intención de voto para las próximas elecciones presidenciales".
  6. (26 March 2010). "Juan Manuel Santos, con 34,1 por ciento, encabeza encuesta de Datexco; Noemí Sanín lo sigue con 21,7".
  7. (27 March 2010). "El Partidor".
  8. (27 March 2010). "¿Santos vs. Noemí en segunda vuelta?".
  9. (8 April 2010). "Mockus supera a Sanín en encuesta del Centro Nacional de Consultoría".
  10. (9 April 2010). "Nuevo Opinómetro de Datexco revela que Santos y Mockus disputarían la segunda vuelta".
  11. (15 April 2010). "Nueva encuesta presidencial revela que Mockus está a sólo 7 puntos de Santos".
  12. (16 April 2010). "Habría segunda vuelta Santos – Mockus, según Gran Encuesta".
  13. (22 April 2010). "GRAN ENCUESTA CM&: Antanas Mockus ganaría la Presidencia si la segunda vuelta fuera mañana".
  14. (26 April 2010). "Mockus 38% – Santos 29%, en primera; Mockus 50% – Santos 37%, en segunda".
  15. (28 April 2010). "Santos ganaría en primera vuelta y Mockus, en segunda".
  16. (29 April 2010). "Candidato Antanas Mockus encabeza nueva encuesta de CM& y el Centro Nacional de Consultoría".
  17. (30 April 2010). "Mockus tendría el 41,5% de intención de voto en segunda vuelta y Santos el 29%, según Datexco".
  18. (6 May 2010). "Nueva encuesta da a Mockus una ventaja de cuatro puntos sobre Santos".
  19. (7 May 2010). "Antanas Mockus con un 37,7% encabeza intención de voto, revela encuesta de Datexco".
  20. (9 May 2010). "¡Empatados!".
  21. (13 May 2010). "Nueva gran encuesta presidencial CM& – Centro Nacional de Consultoría".
  22. (14 May 2010). "Nueva encuesta de Datexco mantiene en primer lugar a Mockus".
  23. (19 May 2010). "Santos, con el 37,5%, y Mockus, con el 35,4%, encabezan intención de voto: encuesta Invamer Gallup".
  24. (20 May 2010). "Segunda Encuesta Elecciones Presidenciales 2010".
  25. (20 May 2010). "Santos 39%; Mockus 34%, según la más reciente encuesta del centro Nacional de Consultoría".
  26. (21 May 2010). "Empate técnico entre Santos, con el 35%, y Mockus, con el 34%, revela sondeo de Datexco".
  27. (22 May 2010). "Santos ganador en primera vuelta mientras Mockus lo haría en la segunda".
  28. (15 April 2010}}{{Dead link). "Según nueva encuesta, Mockus está a siete puntos de Santos".
  29. (20 May 2010). "Encuesta de la Universidad de Medellín da como ganador a Mocku".
  30. (21 May 2010). "Empate técnico entre Santos, con el 35%, y Mockus, con el 34%, revela sondeo de Datexco".
  31. (3 June 2010). "Los sondeos dan una victoria aplastante de Santos en las elecciones de Colombia".
  32. (2010-05-29). "Police killed on Colombia poll day - Americas". Al Jazeera English.
  33. Hennigan, Tom. (22 June 2010). "Landslide win for Santos in Colombian election". Irish Times Trust.
  34. Xuequan, Mu. (20 June 2010). "Santos elected as new president of Colombia". [[Xinhua News Agency]].
  35. (21 June 2010). "Colombia's Santos Hails Uribe in Landslide Victory (Correct)". [[Business Week]].
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