2009 United States gubernatorial elections

Election predictions

Several sites and individuals publish predictions of competitive seats. These predictions look at factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent is running for re-election), the strength of the candidates, and the partisan leanings of the state (reflected in part by the state's Cook Partisan Voting Index rating). The predictions assign ratings to each state, with the rating indicating the predicted advantage that a party has in winning that seat.

Most election predictors use:

• "tossup": no advantage
• "tilt" (used by some predictors): advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean"
• "lean": slight advantage
• "likely": significant, but surmountable, advantage
• "safe" or "solid": near-certain chance of victory

In many cases, the incumbent has yet to say their intention of running for another term. If an incumbent intends to retire then place " (retiring)" after the incumbent's name.

See Template: USRaceRating for how to apply a rating.

--

Race summary

States

Territory

Closest races

States where the margin of victory was under 5%:

1. Northern Mariana Islands, 2.8%
2. New Jersey, 4.3%

Red denotes states won by Republicans. Green denotes states won by Covenants.

New Jersey

Main article: 2009 New Jersey gubernatorial election

Democratic Governor Jon Corzine was eligible to run for a second term and did so. He was considered vulnerable given a number of recent scandals and low approval ratings. Former Glen Ridge Mayor Carl Bergmanson, failed 2008 congressional candidate Roger Bacon, and failed 2008 Senate candidate Jeff Boss also sought the Democratic nomination. Corzine won the Democratic primary on June 2.

U.S. Attorney Chris Christie was the Republican gubernatorial nominee. Christie defeated former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan and veteran General Assemblyman Rick Merkt in the Republican primary on June 2.

Chris Daggett, who was Commissioner of the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection under Governor Thomas Kean and regional administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency under President Ronald W. Reagan, ran as an independent. Daggett raised enough money to file for public funds and appear in both debates.

On November 3, 2009, Republican Christie unseated Democratic incumbent Governor Corzine. His margin of victory was 49% to 45%. Daggett's role as a "spoiler candidate" (some polls had him taking 10 percent of the vote) never materialized.

Virginia

Main article: 2009 Virginia gubernatorial election

Virginia's term limits law allows governors to run for more than one term; however, the terms cannot be consecutive. Thus, incumbent governor Tim Kaine could not stand for re-election.

Candidates for the Democratic nomination included Terry McAuliffe, former chairman of the Democratic National Committee and Hillary Clinton's former campaign manager; State Senator Creigh Deeds; and State Delegate Brian Moran. Deeds won the Democratic primary on June 9, 2009, with approximately 49% of the vote, beating out Terry McAliffe with 26% and Brian Moran with 23%.

The Republican nominee was Virginia Attorney General Bob McDonnell. This was the sixth consecutive Virginian gubernatorial election where an elected Attorney General has run.

On November 3, 2009, Bob McDonnell defeated Creigh Deeds to become governor-elect of Virginia. His margin of victory was a landslide 59% to 41%.

Territory

Northern Mariana Islands

November 23, 2009 (runoff) round 36.2% 51.4% 36.3% 48.6% 19.3% 8.0% Benigno Fitial:
Heinz Hofschneider: Main article: 2009 Northern Mariana Islands gubernatorial election

Governor Benigno R. Fitial, a member of the local Covenant Party, was eligible to run for a second term and did so. Rep. Heinz Hofschneider won the Republican nomination in June, defeating former Republican Governor Juan N. Babauta, who was defeated in his 2005 re-election by Fitial. Ramon "Kumoi" Guerrero and Juan "Pan" Guerrero, two former members of the Northern Mariana Islands Senate, both ran as independents.

The CNMI election was held on Saturday, November 7, 2009. No candidate received a majority, so Governor Fital and Rep. Hofschneider advanced to a runoff election on November 23. Fital won with a 370-vote margin.

Notes

References

References

1. Eugenio, Haidee V.. (2009-11-23). "CNMI holds first runoff election". [[Saipan Tribune]].
2. Casas, Gemma. (2009-11-17). "Northern Marianas' election race heats up". [[Radio Australia]].
3. Parentheses around an incumbent's name indicates that the incumbent is retiring, possibly due to term limits.
4. "Gubernatorial Ratings {{!}} Inside Elections".
5. [http://www.newsday.com/news/local/wire/newjersey/ny-bc-nj--e-mails-corzines0531may31,0,7109047.story] {{webarchive. link. (June 12, 2008)
6. "Archived copy".
7. "Deeds Weighs In On Recount Process". Charlottesvillenewsplex.tv.
8. [http://www.newsleader.com/article/20081109/NEWS01/811090337/1002/news01]{{dead link. (April 2010)
9. "2009 June Democratic Primary Unofficial Results".
10. (2008-11-07). "Attorney General Bob McDonnell hopes VA will elect a Republican governor – WDBJ7 Roanoke News and Weather NRV Lynchburg Danville |". Wdbj7.com.
11. [https://www.foxnews.com/politics/republicans-win-governors-races-in-new-jersey-virginia]
12. "November 2009 General Election Official Results".
13. Casas, Gemma Q.. (2009-10-13). "Registered voters up by 15%". [[Marianas Variety]].
14. Eugenio, Haidee V.. (2009-12-08). "Fitial seals victory with 370 lead". [[Saipan Tribune]].