2008 United States Senate election in South Dakota

Background

In 2002, Tim Johnson was re-elected by a narrow margin of 527 votes, the closest senate contest in the country that cycle. Two years later, Republicans flipped the state's other senate seat, ousting then Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle. Heading into 2008, the seat was poised to be a heavily contested one, and Republicans saw as a strong potential flip.

But the race would be upended on December 13, 2006, when Senator Johnson was hospitalized with what was later revealed to be a brain hemorrhage. This immediately shook up the state of the race, and dashed much of the discourse surrounding it for a time. On the Democratic side, there was uncertainty if Johnson would be able to return to the Senate, and speculation surrounded whether Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin, the state's at-large Congresswoman, would run in his place.

However, by all accounts, Johnson still intended to run for re-election as long as his health kept improving, and prominent Democrats such as Harry Reid and Ted Kennedy held fundraisers for Johnson. After a 9-month absence, Johnson returned to the Senate in August 2007, and was back to his duties as Senator in September 2007. One month later, Johnson ended all speculation, by announcing his bid for re-election.

Republican primary

Candidates

• Joel Dykstra, South Dakota State Representative
• Charles Gonyo
• Sam Kephart

Declined

• Dennis Daugaard, incumbent Lieutenant Governor since 2003
• Dusty Johnson, member of the South Dakota Public Utilities Commission
• Mike Rounds, incumbent Governor since 2003

Campaign

Republican efforts for recruitment were frustrated by Johnson's situation and the sympathy boost that came with it. Significant hope was given to the possibility of recruiting second term governor Mike Rounds to run against Johnson, but Rounds showed little interest. Lt. Governor Dennis Daugaard, who was wealthy and could self fund, was also sought, but he was planning a gubernatorial bid for 2010. On July 5, 2007, Joel Dykstra, a state representative, entered but he was seen as having long odds and as not a top-tier candidate.

Results

General election

Candidates

• Tim Johnson (D), incumbent U.S. Senator
• Joel Dykstra (R), South Dakota State Representative

Campaign

Already a well-regarded figure, following health problems, Johnson became more popular. "South Dakota is a very kind state," Steve Jarding, a Harvard political scientist who ran Johnson's campaign, said. "People were rooting for Tim—Democrats, Republicans, independents—they wanted him to be O.K." He was also seen a pragmatic moderate. He received endorsements from the Republican Mayor of Sioux Falls, Dave Munson, and the NRA Political Victory Fund. Johnson also received the endorsement of former Senator Larry Pressler, who Johnson beat in 1996.

Dykstra argued that Johnson voted 80% of the time with U.S. Senator Barack Obama and 90% with U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. In response, Johnson pointed out his votes on the confirmation of U.S. Supreme Court justices John Roberts/Samuel Alito, against flag burning, in favor for the Iraq War, Patriot Act, a ban on partial birth abortion, etc.

Dykstra tried to turn the race around by comparing Johnson to Larry Pressler in 1996, and that Dykstra would work better with the state's other senator. Dykstra also focused on high gas prices, highlighting his experience in the energy industry, and a focus on alternate energy sources. But Johnson's popularity and sympathy proved to be the main factor, giving him a large amount of sympathy vote.

Predictions

Polling

Results

While John McCain won the state comfortably, Johnson easily won re-election to a third term, losing in only four counties. His friend and fellow Democrat, Stephanie Herseth Sandlin easily won re-election to .

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Union (Largest city: Dakota Dunes)
• Hutchinson (largest city: Parkston)
• Lincoln (largest city: Sioux Falls)
• Turner (largest city: Parker)
• Butte (largest city: Belle Fourche)
• Meade (largest city: Sturgis)
• Custer (largest city: Custer)
• Pennington (largest city: Rapid City)
• Lawrence (largest city: Spearfish)
• Fall River (largest city: Hot Springs)
• Stanley (largest city: Fort Pierre)
• Jackson (largest city: Kadoka)
• Potter (largest city: Gettysburg)
• Sully (largest city: Onida)
• Hughes (largest city: Pierre)
• Hyde (largest city: Highmore)
• Walworth (largest city: Mobridge)
• Campbell (largest city: Herreid)
• McPherson (largest city: Eureka)
• Tripp (largest city: Winner)
• Gregory (largest city: Gregory)
• Hamlin (largest city: Estelline)
• Davison (largest city: Mitchell)
• Douglas (largest city: Armour)
• Hanson (largest city: Alexandria)

References

References

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3. (2004-11-03). "CNN.com - Thune unseats Senate minority leader Daschle - Nov 3, 2004".
4. (October 23, 2008). "In South Dakota Race, Gauging the Impact of a Senator's Health". The New York Times.
5. Zernike, Kate. (2006-12-13). "South Dakota Senator Is Hospitalized". The New York Times.
6. ABC News. "Sen. Tim Johnson's Second Chance at Life and Work".
7. Staff, C. Q.. (2007-01-26). "Democrats Strategize to Hold On to 12 Senate Seats Up in 2008 - New York Times".
8. Rothenberg, Stuart. (2007-09-07). "In 2008 Election Cycle, How Bad Is Bad for Senate Republicans?".
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10. Hearn, Josephine. (2007-09-05). "Johnson returns, deeply changed by illness".
11. Davey, Monica. (2007-10-20). "Recuperating Senator Says He'll Seek Re-election". The New York Times.
12. Drucker, David M.. (2007-10-19). "Johnson to Seek Third Senate Term".
13. Roll Call Staff. (2007-05-10). "Herseth's Path to Another Term a Little Less Dusty".
14. Blake, Aaron. (2007-07-05). "Republican enters race for ill senator's seat".
15. Drucker, David M.. (2007-05-21). "South Dakota ’08 Jockeying Begins".
16. Horrigan, Marie. "South Dakota Sen. Johnson Draws Foe With Record — But Not Star Power - New York Times".
17. Judis, John. (2007-08-31). "Red Dawn: 2008 Will be a Great Election for Democrats in the Senate".
18. (June 3, 2008). "2008 South Dakota Official Primary Election Results".
19. "Joel Dykstra on Gun Control Republican Challenger".
20. Kraushaar, Josh. (2008-10-27). "Tim Johnson endorsed by former GOP rival - - POLITICO.com".
21. Woster, Kevin. (2008-10-26). "Pressler endorses Sen. Johnson, the man who beat him in 1996".
22. (October 19, 2008). "Johnson campaigns on cash, Dykstra wants change". Lee Enterprises.
23. (2008-08-01). "Dykstra compares his race to Johnson vs. Pressler race".
24. Hetland, Cara. (2008-06-04). "S.D. Sen. Tim Johnson has a Republican challenger".
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27. link. (October 28, 2010 ''CQ Politics'')
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30. [https://web.archive.org/web/20080622184606/http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_senate_elections/south_dakota/election_2008_south_dakota_senate Rasmussen Reports]
31. [https://web.archive.org/web/20080719123846/http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_senate_elections/south_dakota/election_2008_south_dakota_senate Rasmussen Reports]
32. "South Dakota - Election Results 2008 - The New York Times".
33. "Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives".