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2008 United States Senate election in Oregon

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2008 United States Senate election in Oregon

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FieldValue
election_name2008 United States Senate election in Oregon
countryOregon
typepresidential
ongoingno
previous_election2002 United States Senate election in Oregon
previous_year2002
next_election2014 United States Senate election in Oregon
next_year2014
election_dateNovember 4, 2008
image1File:Jeff Merkley (cropped).jpg
image_size150x150px
nominee1**Jeff Merkley**
party1Democratic Party (United States)
popular_vote1**864,392**
percentage1**48.90%**
image2File:Gordon Smith official portrait (cropped).jpg
nominee2Gordon Smith
party2Republican Party (United States)
popular_vote2805,159
percentage245.55%
image33x4.svg
nominee3David Brownlow
party3Constitution Party (United States)
popular_vote392,565
percentage35.24%
map_image{{switcher
default1
map_size250px
map_caption**Merkley**:
**Smith**:
titleU.S. Senator
before_electionGordon Smith
before_partyRepublican Party (United States)
after_electionJeff Merkley
after_partyDemocratic Party (United States)

|[[File:2008 United States Senate election in Oregon results map by county.svg|260px]] |County results |[[File:2008 United States Senate election in Oregon results map by congressional District.svg|260px]] |Congressional district results Smith:
The 2008 United States Senate election in Oregon was held on November 4, 2008. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Gordon H. Smith sought reelection to a third term. Smith was the only Republican Senator from the West Coast (excluding Alaska) and the only Republican holding statewide office in Oregon. He was opposed by Democrat Jeff Merkley, the Speaker of the Oregon House of Representatives, and David Brownlow of the Constitution Party of Oregon. Merkley won by a narrow margin, with Smith not conceding until two days after the election. Merkley became the first Democrat to win this seat since 1960, and since Smith was the only Republican holding statewide office in Oregon at the time, this was the first time since 1860 that no Republicans won or held statewide office in Oregon. Merkley's inauguration marked the first time since 1967 that Democrats held both of Oregon's United States Senate seats.

This was one of the most competitive races during the 2008 United States Senate elections, and the race was the most expensive in Oregon history. As of late October 2008, advertising related to the race exceeded $27 million, outstripping the $15 million spent on a 2007 tobacco tax ballot measure and the $14.7 million spent in the gubernatorial election of 2006.

Republican primary

Candidates

  • Gordon Leitch, ophthalmologist
  • Gordon Smith, incumbent U.S. Senator

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

  • Jeff Merkley, Speaker of the Oregon House of Representatives
  • Steve Novick, attorney
  • Candy Neville, real estate broker
  • Roger Obrist, construction worker
  • Pavel Goberman, perennial candidate
  • David Loera, doctor

Campaign

In the Democratic primary, although Democrats held all statewide offices in Oregon, there was no clear Democratic challenger; former Oregon Gov. John Kitzhaber indicated early on that he was not interested. In January 2007, while the campaign was still in its infancy, Portland lawyer and political activist Steve Novick wrote a lengthy critique of Gordon Smith's record in the Portland Willamette Week. The article outlined a strategy to beat Smith, who Novick argued was actually more vulnerable than appeared. On April 18, 2007, Novick formally announced his candidacy for Senate.

By the end of May, both Congressmen Earl Blumenauer and Peter DeFazio had announced they were not interested in entering the race, depleting what was considered by many the "first-tier" list of candidates for the position leaving Democrats searching for more candidates. With no high-profile Democrats in the race, it was believed by that the most likely candidates would come from the state legislature. Since the legislature was still in session at the time it was considered unlikely that any prominent lawmakers would jump into the race until the end of June or later. Of those, Jeff Merkley, then Speaker of the Oregon House of Representatives was considered to be the most likely to challenge Smith due to rumors that he had been in talks with the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC).

The rumors that Merkley was being courted by the DSCC were confirmed when it was reported that he had travelled to the East Coast to discuss a possible run at the invitation of Senator Charles Schumer of New York, who as chairman of the DSCC was in charge of recruiting possible challengers to take on Smith.{{cite web | last = Cain | first = Brad | title = Oregon speaker looks at taking on GOP senator in 2008 | work = The Associated Press | publisher = KGW News | date = June 29, 2007 | url = http://www.kgw.com/sharedcontent/APStories/stories/D8Q26JEO0.html | format = Article | access-date = December 22, 2008 | url-status=dead | archive-url = https://archive.today/20070623102336/http://www.kgw.com/sharedcontent/APStories/stories/D8Q26JEO0.html | archive-date = June 23, 2007

Merkley and Novick gave back-to-back speeches at the yearly summit of the Democratic Party of Oregon in Sunriver. There Novick threw a political jab, challenging Merkley's statements that he had been an opponent of the war from the start by pointing to his support of a Republican-drafted non-binding resolution in 2003, two days after the invasion began, that praised President Bush for the invasion of Iraq and the efforts of the troops and prayed for their safety. The critique drew noticeably negative reactions from the crowd and Merkley won a straw poll at the summit, 103 to 50 for Novick.

Merkley went on to dismiss the criticism, pointing out that Legislative resolutions carry no force of law and are only statements of principle, that a legislator could freely pick and choose which parts of the resolution to support, and that he made clear that "you stand up and clarify what parts you're supporting and what parts you're opposed to and I did that more clearly than any member on the floor of the House."

By the end of November 2007, six Democratic candidates had filed papers to run for the seat: Novick, Merkley, real estate agent Candy Neville of Eugene, retired mental health counselor David Loera of Salem, retired construction worker Roger Obrist of Damascus, and perennial candidate Pavel Goberman of Beaverton. Some pointed discussions ensued among the candidates over a debate schedule and formats.

On January 22, 2008, four of the Democratic candidates had their first debate in Pendleton, Oregon hosted by the East Oregonian newspaper.

Merkley went on to defeat Novick and the four other candidates in the Democratic primary on May 20, 2008.

Results

Results by county, Democratic primary:

| | ]]

General election

Candidates

Major

  • Jeff Merkley (D), Speaker of the State House
  • Gordon Smith (R), incumbent U.S. Senator

Minor

  • David Brownlow (C), at its statewide nominating convention on June 7, 2008, the Constitution Party of Oregon named him as its Senate nominee.

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political ReportOctober 23, 2008
CQ PoliticsOctober 31, 2008
Rothenberg Political ReportNovember 2, 2008
Real Clear PoliticsOctober 30, 2008

Polling

SourceDateGordon
Smith (R)Jeff
Merkley (D)
Riley ResearchAugust 20, 2007**38%**19%
SurveyUSANovember 5, 2007**48%**39%
Oregon LiveDecember 19, 2007**39%**12%
Rasmussen ReportsFebruary 19, 2008**48%**30%
Rasmussen ReportsMarch 25, 2008**47%**34%
Rasmussen ReportsMay 7, 2008**45%**42%
Rasmussen ReportsJune 11, 2008**47%**38%
Rasmussen ReportsJuly 15, 200841%**43%**
Survey USAAugust 4, 2008**49%**37%
Rasmussen ReportsAugust 7, 2008**50%**44%
DHMSeptember 14, 2008**42%**39%
Rasmussen ReportsSeptember 15, 2008**46%**45%
Survey USASeptember 23, 200842%**44%**
Survey USAOctober 12, 200841%**46%**
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 14, 2008**47%****47%**
DHMOctober 25, 200840%**45%**
Survey USAOctober 26, 200842%**49%**
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 30, 200846%**49%**

Results

By county

Merkley supporters at a campaign rally

Although Smith carried all but eight of Oregon's 36 counties, one of the counties he lost was Multnomah County, home to Portland. Ultimately, Merkley's 146,568-vote margin in Multnomah, his home county, proved too much for Smith to overcome; it was more than double Merkley's overall margin of 59,233 votes.

Constitution Party candidate David Brownlow was seen by some as a spoiler, as his number of votes was more than the margin between Merkley and Smith. However, Brownlow drew votes away from opponents of the Iraq War, which Smith supported.

Brownlow's performance by County:

| ]]

CountySmith%Merkley%Brownlow%Others%
**Baker****5,662****66.37**2,203*25.82*652*7.64*14*0.16*
**Benton**17,933*40.23***24,911****55.89**1,567*3.52*163*0.37*
**Clackamas****92,780****49.97**83,558*45.00*8,851*4.77*479*0.26*
**Clatsop**7,939*44.48***8,795****49.28**1,062*5.95*52*0.29*
**Columbia**10,679*44.44***11,166****46.46**2,091*8.70*95*0.40*
**Coos****14,838****49.72**12,621*42.29*2,319*7.77*67*0.22*
**Crook****6,436****64.31**2,735*27.33*804*8.03*32*0.32*
**Curry****6,679****55.86**4,410*36.88*843*7.05*25*0.21*
**Deschutes****41,108****53.78**31,024*40.59*4,113*5.38*197*0.26*
**Douglas****29,969****58.63**17,387*34.02*3,626*7.09*130*0.25*
**Gilliam****699****64.66**302*27.94*78*7.22*2*0.19*
**Grant****2,821****74.12**748*19.65*232*6.10*5*0.13*
**Harney****2,574****71.98**755*21.11*242*6.77*5*0.14*
**Hood River**4,070*42.68***5,045****52.90**403*4.23*18*0.19*
**Jackson****49,225****50.53**41,828*42.94*6,071*6.23*296*0.30*
**Jefferson****4,788****59.26**2,705*33.48*564*6.98*22*0.27*
**Josephine****22,790****56.30**14,153*34.97*3,409*8.42*125*0.31*
**Klamath****19,241****67.51**7,005*24.58*2,152*7.55*104*0.36*
**Lake****2,697****74.79**668*18.52*234*6.49*7*0.19*
**Lane**66,936*37.52***103,631****58.09**7,393*4.14*449*0.25*
**Lincoln**9,464*40.78***12,097****52.13**1,598*6.89*47*0.20*
**Linn****27,047****54.29**18,403*36.94*4,180*8.39*192*0.39*
**Malheur****7,355****73.21**2,218*22.08*469*4.67*5*0.05*
**Marion****62,560****51.71**49,626*41.02*8,359*6.91*441*0.36*
**Morrow****2,751****68.57**988*24.63*266*6.63*7*0.17*
**Multnomah**95,950*27.25***242,518****68.87**12,410*3.52*1,284*0.36*
**Polk****18,718****53.53**13,906*39.77*2,195*6.28*147*0.42*
**Sherman****685****66.96**277*27.08*54*5.28*7*0.68*
**Tillamook****6,516****50.44**5,540*42.89*826*6.39*36*0.28*
**Umatilla****17,933****71.74**5,948*23.80*1,068*4.27*47*0.19*
**Union****8,230****67.13**3,329*27.15*676*5.51*25*0.20*
**Wallowa****3,226****74.20**940*21.62*177*4.07*5*0.11*
**Wasco****5,762****51.96**4,586*41.36*718*6.47*23*0.21*
**Washington**106,114*46.53***111,367****48.84**9,886*4.34*678*0.30*
**Wheeler****509****64.35**212*26.80*68*8.60*2*0.25*
**Yamhill****22,475****53.10**16,787*39.66*2,909*6.87*155*0.37*

;Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

  • Clatsop (largest city: Astoria)
  • Columbia (largest city: St. Helens)
  • Hood River (largest city: Hood River)
  • Lane (largest city: Eugene)
  • Lincoln (largest city: Newport)
  • Benton (largest city: Corvallis)
  • Washington (largest city: Hillsboro)

References

References

  1. Esteve, Harry. (November 6, 2008). "Jeff Merkley plunges into his new job in the U.S. Senate". [[The Oregonian]].
  2. Phillips, Kate. (June 13, 2008). "G.O.P. Leader Maps Senate Elections". [[The New York Times]].
  3. Mapes, Jeff. (October 23, 2008). "Outside interests snag airtime". [[The Oregonian]].
  4. Novick, Steve. (January 31, 2007). "If I ran". [[Willamette Week]].
  5. Chisholm, Kari. (April 18, 2007). "He's in: Steve Novick takes on Gordon Smith.". [[BlueOregon]].
  6. Moore, Scott. (May 24, 2007). "Senate, Anyone? Democrats Search for a Candidate". [[The Portland Mercury]].
  7. staff. (August 23, 2007). "Golden out of race". [[Eugene Weekly]].
  8. staff. (August 1, 2007). "Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley Files to Run for United States Senate". Jeff Merkley for Oregon.
  9. Mapes, Jeff. (October 7, 2007). "Novick jabs at Merkley on Iraq vote". [[The Oregonian]].
  10. Esteve, Harry. (November 26, 2007). "U.S. Senate race: Democrats debate debates". [[The Oregonian]].
  11. Walsh, Edward. (May 21, 2008). "Merkley scores chance to take on Smith". [[The Oregonian]].
  12. "Content Manager WebDrawer - 2008 Primary Election Official Results".
  13. "Constitution Party of Oregon".
  14. "2008 Senate Race ratings for October 23, 2008".
  15. link. (October 28, 2010 ''CQ Politics'')
  16. "2008 Senate ratings".
  17. "2008 RCP Averages & Senate Results". Real Clear Politics.
  18. [http://www.rileyresearch.com/polls/2007_08_20_riley_report.pdf Riley Research] {{Webarchive. link. (September 27, 2007)
  19. (August 2024)
  20. [https://web.archive.org/web/20071220033055/http://blog.oregonlive.com/mapesonpolitics/2007/12/poll_suggests_frohnmayer_facto.html Oregon Live]
  21. [https://web.archive.org/web/20080229052011/http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_senate_elections/election_2008_oregon_senate Rasmussen Reports]
  22. [http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_senate_elections/election_2008_oregon_senate2/ Rasmussen Reports] {{dead link. (July 2016)
  23. [https://web.archive.org/web/20080617203233/http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_senate_elections/oregon/oregon_senate_smith_still_below_50_in_re_election_bid Rasmussen Reports]
  24. [https://web.archive.org/web/20080617113209/http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_senate_elections/oregon/election_2008_oregon_senate Rasmussen Reports]
  25. [http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=bae17f79-860b-4401-a25b-bf872ed6db69/ Survey USA]
  26. [https://web.archive.org/web/20090107002249/http://portlandtribune.com/news/story.php?story_id=122168667234765200 DHM]
  27. [http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=2587d5be-1ce6-48a3-ad0d-3245a66a7a00 Survey USA]
  28. [http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=adc7a1ab-a122-4f0e-beed-c7820740f109 Survey USA]
  29. [https://web.archive.org/web/20081031230153/http://www.portlandtribune.com/news/story.php?story_id=122515853055271000 DHM]
  30. [http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=0b63ff1a-61f7-4ec0-bd56-38d157768f62&q=50229 Survey USA]
  31. Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives. "Statistics of the Presidential and Congressional Election of November 4, 2008".
  32. (September 15, 2009). "Brownlow could be spoiler in Ore. Senate race".
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