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2008 United States Senate election in North Carolina

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FieldValue
election_name2008 United States Senate election in North Carolina
countryNorth Carolina
typepresidential
ongoingno
previous_election2002 United States Senate election in North Carolina
previous_year2002
next_election2014 United States Senate election in North Carolina
next_year2014
election_dateNovember 4, 2008
image_sizex150px
image1Kay Hagan official photo (croppedB).jpg
nominee1**Kay Hagan**
party1Democratic Party (United States)
popular_vote1**2,249,311**
percentage1**52.65%**
image2Elizabeth Dole official photo.jpg
nominee2Elizabeth Dole
party2Republican Party (United States)
popular_vote21,887,510
percentage244.18%
map_image
map_size324px
map_caption**Hagan:**
**Dole:**
titleU.S. Senator
before_electionElizabeth Dole
before_partyRepublican Party (United States)
after_electionKay Hagan
after_partyDemocratic Party (United States)

Dole:
The 2008 United States Senate election in North Carolina was held on Tuesday, November 4, 2008. The Senate election coincided with the presidential, U.S. House elections, gubernatorial, Council of State, and statewide judicial elections. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Elizabeth Dole ran for re-election to a second term but was defeated by Kay Hagan.

The November general election was the first time in North Carolina history, and only the eighth time in U.S. history, that the two major-party candidates for a U.S. Senate seat were both women. In addition, Hagan became the first woman to defeat an incumbent woman in a U.S. Senate election. As of 2024, this is the last time that a Democrat won a U.S. Senate race in North Carolina, and the only time since 1998. This was the first time Democrats won this seat since 1966.

Democratic primary

Candidates

  • Kay Hagan, State Senator
  • Duskin Lassiter, trucker
  • Jim Neal, businessman
  • Howard Staley, doctor
  • Marcus Williams, attorney

Campaign

Hagan, initially an unknown politician, decided to challenge incumbent Republican Senator Elizabeth Dole.

National Democrats attempted to recruit incumbent Governor Mike Easley to make the race. A late October 2007 Rasmussen Report poll showed Easley defeating Dole 50% to 42%. Easley declined to run, as did Congressman Brad Miller, who expressed interest in early 2007. Former Governor Jim Hunt also declined to compete against Dole.

Neal earned the endorsement of the Black Political Caucus of Charlotte-Mecklenburg. He also was endorsed by Blue America PAC, eQualityGiving, the Independent Weekly and YES ! Weekly.

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

  • Elizabeth Dole, incumbent U.S. Senator
  • Pete DiLauro

Results

General election

Candidates

  • Chris Cole (L), perennial candidate
  • Elizabeth Dole (R), incumbent U.S. Senator
  • Kay Hagan (D), State Senator

Campaign

Dole was initially a heavy favorite for reelection, especially after several potential top-tier challengers such as Congressman Brad Miller, Governor Mike Easley and former Governor Jim Hunt all declined to compete against Dole. Ultimately, Kay Hagan, a state senator from Greensboro, won the Democratic primary election and became Dole's general election opponent. Reports late in the campaign suggested that Dole, once considered a safe bet for reelection, suffered from Barack Obama's decision to aggressively contest North Carolina in the presidential election.

Hagan was initially given little chance against Dole, but Hagan was helped by independent 527 groups lobbying/advertising against incumbent Dole. The Democratic Senate Campaign Committee expended more money in North Carolina than in any other state during the 2008 election season. However, Dole benefited from more out-of-state funding overall than Hagan. The efforts appeared to be effective, as Hagan began to take the lead in several polls beginning in September.

In late October, Dole released a controversial television ad attacking Hagan for reportedly taking donations from individuals involved in the Godless Americans PAC, a group which advocates for the rights of people who do not believe in God. The ad also included a female voice saying, "There is no God." The Dole campaign said the ad correctly shows who Hagan will associate with in order to raise campaign funds, and on November 1, Bob Dole also defended it, asserting that "it never questions her faith," and that "the issue is why she was there. There's no question about her faith. I think it's [the ad's] fair game."

Hagan, who is a member of the Presbyterian Church and a former Sunday school teacher, condemned the ad as "fabricated and pathetic," and, according to Hagan's campaign website, a cease-and-desist letter was "hand-delivered to Dole's Raleigh office, faxed to her Salisbury office and sent to her home at the Watergate in Washington, DC." Hagan also filed a lawsuit in Wake County Superior Court accusing Dole of defamation and libel.

The ad has met exceptionally strong criticism from the public as well as many local and several national media outlets. CNN's Campbell Brown said about the ad: "[A]mid all the attack ads on the airwaves competing to out-ugly one another, we think we've found a winner." The ad has been described as "ridiculously outrageous," "indecent," a "gross misrepresentation," "worse than dishonest" and "beyond the bounds of acceptable political disagreement," among other harsh criticism. Another ad issued by the Dole campaign in mid-October 2008 was described by The Fayetteville Observer as "[setting] the low mark in negative political campaigning." The media reported, that within 48 hours of the first ad Hagan received over 3,600 contributions, including major donors as well as individual support from a range of atheists, agnostics and followers of other religious beliefs who felt they were being attacked by Dole. Following the second ad Hagan's lead doubled according to some polls.

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political ReportOctober 23, 2008
CQ PoliticsOctober 31, 2008
Rothenberg Political ReportNovember 2, 2008
Real Clear PoliticsNovember 2, 2008

Polling

Hagan on the campaign trail

Polls released during the week of October 28, 2008 showed Dole and Hagan within the statistical margin of error (3% apart).

Poll sourceDates administeredKay
Hagan (D)Elizabeth
Dole (R)
Public Policy PollingFebruary 18, 200833%**50%**
Rasmussen ReportsApril 10, 200839%**52%**
Research 2000/Daily KosApril 28–30, 200841%**48%**
Rasmussen ReportsMay 8, 2008**48%**47%
Public Policy PollingMay 8–9, 200843%**48%**
Civitas Institute/
Tel Opinion ResearchMay 14–17, 200843%**45%**
Survey USAMay 17–19, 200846%**50%**
Public Policy PollingMay 28–29, 200839%**47%**
Anzalone Liszt ResearchJune 4, 200844%**48%**
Rasmussen ReportsJune 10, 200839%**53%**
Civitas Institute/
Tel Opinion ResearchJune 11–13, 200838%**48%**
The Tarrance GroupJuly 9, 200836%**51%**
Survey USAJuly 14, 200842%**54%**
Rasmussen ReportsJuly 15, 200843%**54%**
Public Policy PollingJuly 23–27, 200840%**49%**
Research 2000/Daily KosJuly 28–30, 200842%**50%**
Insider AdvantageAugust 19, 2008**40%****40%**
Public Policy PollingAugust 23, 2008**42%**39%
Democracy CorpsAugust 26, 2008**50%**45%
Survey USASeptember 8, 200840%**48%**
Daily Kos/Research 2000September 10, 200842%**48%**
Rasmussen ReportsSeptember 18, 2008**51%**45%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 19, 2008**46%**41%
Rasmussen ReportsSeptember 23, 2008**48%**45%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 28–29, 2008**46%**38%
Survey USAOctober 5–6, 200843%**44%**
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 8, 2008**49%**44%
Survey USAOctober 20, 2008**46%**45%
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 29, 2008**52%**46%
Public Policy PollingOctober 31–November 2, 2008**51%**44%
Survey USANovember 2, 2008**50%**43%

Results

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

  • Perquimans (Largest city: Hertford)
  • Camden (Largest city: Camden)

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

  • Franklin (Largest city: Wake Forest)
  • Montgomery (Largest city: Troy)
  • Nash (largest municipality: Rocky Mount)
  • New Hanover (largest municipality: Wilmington)
  • Watauga (largest municipality: Boone)
  • Alamance (largest municipality: Burlington)
  • Brunswick (largest municipality: Leland)
  • Greene (largest municipality: Snow Hill)
  • Lee (largest municipality: Sanford)
  • Person (largest municipality: Roxboro)
  • Rockingham (largest municipality: Eden)
  • Pender (largest municipality: Hampstead)
  • Sampson (largest municipality: Clinton)
  • Washington (largest municipality: Plymouth)
  • Guilford (Largest city: Greensboro)
  • Mecklenburg (Largest city: Charlotte)
  • Tyrrell (largest municipality: Columbia)
  • Buncombe (largest town: Asheville)
  • Forsyth (largest town: Winston-Salem)
  • Pitt (largest town: Greenville)
  • Wake (largest town: Raleigh)
  • Wilson (largest town: Wilson)
  • Lenoir (largest town: Kinston)

Analysis

In the 2008 election, Dole lost by a wider-than-expected margin, taking only 44 percent of the vote to Hagan's 53 percent – the widest margin for a Senate race in North Carolina in 30 years, and the largest margin of defeat for an incumbent Senator in the 2008 cycle. It has been speculated that the outcry over the "Godless" ads contributed to Dole's loss. Hagan trounced Dole in the state's five largest counties – Mecklenburg, Wake, Guilford, Forsyth and Durham. Hagan also dominated most of the eastern portion of the state, which had been the backbone of Helms' past Senate victories. While Dole dominated the Charlotte suburbs and most of the heavily Republican Foothills region, it was not enough to save her seat.

References

References

  1. link. (September 21, 2008)
  2. (October 28, 2008). "Perdue tries to whistle up a Mayberry miracle". Raleigh News and Observer.
  3. "Rasmussen Reports: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a mid-term election.".
  4. Dan Kane. (January 25, 2007). "Poll puts Easley over Dole". [[The News & Observer]].
  5. [http://www.newsobserver.com/114/story/563228.html newsobserver.com. Miller looking at Senate race] {{webarchive. link. (May 1, 2007)
  6. [http://projects.newsobserver.com/blogs/draft_dodger Draft dodger?. newsobserver.com projects] {{webarchive. link. (May 1, 2008)
  7. "2008 Election Challenge.".
  8. (October 24, 2008). "Is the Southern Strategy Dead?".
  9. (October 4, 2007). "Profile of U.S. Senate Candidate Jim Neal". [[News & Observer]].
  10. [http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/NC/1875/3985/en/summary.html NC State Board of Elections website]
  11. (October 23, 2008). "Scrambling the red states". [[The Economist]].
  12. "Elizabeth Dole: Campaign Finance/Money - Summary." [[OpenSecrets]] http://www.opensecrets.org/politicians/summary.php?type=C&cid=N00008071&newMem=N&cycle=
  13. Kraushaar, Josh. Hagan's campaign says the ad sought to put inflammatory words in their candidate's mouth; The Dole campaign says the ad correctly shows who Hagan will associate with in order to raise campaign funds.[https://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/1008/Dole_still_keeping_the_faith.html ''Dole still keeping the faith'']. [[Politico]]. October 29, 2008.
  14. Brown, Campbell. [http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/29/campbell.brown.dole/index.html ''Commentary: Mudslinging to get elected'']. [[CNN.com]]. October 29, 2008.
  15. [http://small-business-voip.tmcnet.com/news/2008/11/01/3752813.htm ''Bob Dole Defends "Godless" TV Ad'']. [[Small Business VoIP]]. November 1, 2008.
  16. KayHagan.com. [http://www.kayhagan.com/press/kay-on-dole-ad-attacking-her-christian-faith-a-fabricated-pathetic-ad ''Kay on Dole Ad Attacking Her Christian Faith: A Fabricated, Pathetic Ad''] {{webarchive. link. (May 30, 2012 . October 30, 2008.)
  17. [http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/10/dole-sued-for-g.html ''Dole Sued for 'Godless' Attack Ad''] {{Webarchive. link. (January 20, 2016 , [[ABC News (United States)). ABC News]]. October 30, 2008.
  18. [http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/30/dole.ad/index.html Dole challenger irate over suggestion she is "godless"]. [[CNN.com]]. October 30, 2008.
  19. [[Campbell Brown (journalist). Brown, Campbell]]. [http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/29/campbell.brown.dole/index.html ''Commentary: Mudslinging to get elected'']. [[CNN.com]]. October 29, 2008.
  20. Frank, James. [http://www.swamppolitics.com/news/politics/blog/2008/10/dole_godless_ad_shows_progress.html ''Dole 'Godless' ad shows progress, sort of''] {{Webarchive. link. (November 8, 2008 . [[Chicago Tribune]]. October 31, 2008.)
  21. [http://www.charlotteobserver.com/opinion/story/287109.html ''Dole's desperate turn to Big Lie advertising''] {{Webarchive. link. (April 18, 2009 . [[The Charlotte Observer]]. October 30, 2008.)
  22. (July 2018)
  23. [http://www.news-record.com/content/2008/10/29/article/editorial_dole_s_attack_on_hagan_s_faith_drives_heated_campaign_lower ''Editorial: Dole's attack on Hagan's faith drives heated campaign lower'']. [[News & Record (Greensboro). Greensboro News & Record]]. October 30, 2008.
  24. [http://www.americanchronicle.com/articles/79773 ''ELIZABETH DOLE ATTACKS KAY HAGAN'S CHRISTIAN FAITH''] {{Webarchive. link. (August 26, 2013 . AmericanChronicle.com. November 2, 2008.)
  25. [http://www.fayobserver.com/article?id=307439 ''Dole's new ads set the low mark in negative political campaigning'']. [[The Fayetteville Observer]]. October 15, 2008.
  26. (November 11, 2008). "Dole's mistake: 'Godless' ad drove donors, voters to Hagan". [[Miami Herald]].
  27. "2008 Senate Race ratings for October 23, 2008".
  28. link. (October 28, 2010 ''CQ Politics'')
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