2008 United States Senate election in Montana

Background

Montana generally gives its presidential electors to Republican candidates, but historically has elected several prominent Democrats to the United States Senate, including Thomas Walsh, Burton K. Wheeler, Mike Mansfield, and Lee Metcalf. Between 1913 and 2015, only two Republicans served as U.S. Senator from Montana, Zales Ecton and Conrad Burns. In 2004, the state elected Democratic Governor Brian Schweitzer, reversing a 16-year trend of electing Republicans to the Governorship. In the 2006 elections, the Republican Party took over the state House of Representatives in Montana, the only pick-up of a state legislature for the Republicans. In 2006 the Democratic candidate for the United States Senate Jon Tester managed to defeat incumbent Republican Senator Conrad Burns and flip the seat into the Democratic column.

Democratic primary

Candidates

• Max Baucus, incumbent U.S. Senator

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

• Kirk Bushman, businessman
• Bob Kelleher, attorney and perennial candidate
• Michael Lange, State Representative
• Patty Lovaas, accountant
• Anton Pearson, rancher
• Garnett Shay, engineer

Campaign

All Republican candidates trailed Baucus badly in polls. It was revealed that Garnett Shay had an outstanding warrant for his arrest, preventing him from running an effective campaign.

Results

General election

Candidates

• Max Baucus (D), incumbent U.S. Senator.
• Bob Kelleher (R), attorney and perennial candidate

Campaign

Senator Baucus defeated Kelleher as a Democratic incumbent running in a year that was very successful for his party in general. The U.S. Senate race in Montana was somewhat unusual, in that it was perhaps the only race that year in which the Republican candidate was more liberal than the Democratic one. Kelleher, a perennial candidate and eccentric figure in Montana politics, took many positions that were highly unorthodox by GOP standards, such as favoring more liberal drug control policies, supporting universal healthcare and affirmative action, and favoring fair trade restrictions. He was, at the time, an 85-year-old attorney and perennial candidate who has run for office on several different party tickets. Kelleher was pro-life, advocated a parliamentary system of government for the United States, and supported nationalization of the American oil and gas industry and a single-payer health care system. He received no support from the Montana Republican Party.

Predictions

Polling

Results

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Carter (largest city: Ekalaka)
• Sweet Grass (largest city: Big Timber)

References

References

1. Brown, Bob. (June 4, 2002). "2002 Statewide Primary Canvass".
2. (March 26, 2008). "Recors Show Baucus Challenger has Outstanding Warrant in Indiana".
3. McKee, Jennifer. (June 5, 2008). "16th time a charm for veteran candidate".
4. Johnson, Chuck. "Frequent candidate Kelleher dies at 88".
5. "2008 Senate Race ratings for October 23, 2008".
6. "Race Ratings Chart: Senate".
7. "2008 Senate ratings".
8. "2008 RCP Averages & Senate Results". Real Clear Politics.
9. [https://web.archive.org/web/20080911110559/http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_senate_elections/montana/election_2008_montana_senate Rasmussen Reports]
10. [http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/surveys/2008_Archives/PPP_Release_Montana_1103623.pdf Public Policy Polling]
11. "Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives".