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2007 Ontario general election

Canadian provincial election

Field	Value
election_name	2007 Ontario general election
country	Ontario
type	parliamentary
ongoing	no
party_colour	no
party_name	no
turnout	52.8% (4.07pp)
previous_election	2003 Ontario general election
previous_year	2003
previous_mps	38th Legislative Assembly of Ontario
elected_mps	39th Legislative Assembly of Ontario
next_election	2011 Ontario general election
next_year	2011
seats_for_election	107 seats in the [39th Legislative Assembly of Ontario](39th-legislative-assembly-of-ontario)
54 seats were needed for a majority
election_date	October 10, 2007
image1	File: Dalton McGuinty, Mayors' Summit (cropped).jpg
image_size	150x150px
colour1
leader1	Dalton McGuinty
leader_since1	[December 1, 1996](1996-ontario-liberal-party-leadership-election)
party1
leaders_seat1	Ottawa South
last_election1	72 seats, 46.47%
seats_before1	67
seats1	71
seat_change1	4
popular_vote1	1,867,273
percentage1	42.25%
swing1	4.22pp
image2	File: John Tory, Air India Flight 182 Memorial ground breaking (cropped).jpg
colour2
leader2	John Tory
leader_since2	[September 18, 2004](2004-progressive-conservative-party-of-ontario-leadership-election)
party2
leaders_seat2	Ran in Don Valley West (lost)
last_election2	24 seats, 34.67%
seats_before2	25
seats2	26
seat_change2	1
popular_vote2	1,398,806
percentage2	31.62%
swing2	3.05pp
image4	File:Howard Hampton, Toronto City Summit Alliance (cropped).jpg
colour4
leader4	Howard Hampton
leader_since4	June 22, 1996
party4
leaders_seat4	Kenora—Rainy River
last_election4	7 seats, 14.69%
seats_before4	10
seats4	10
seat_change4
popular_vote4	741,465
percentage4	16.76%
swing4	2.07pp
image5	File:Frank de Jong 01 Pengo (3x4 crop).jpg
colour5
leader5	Frank de Jong
leader_since5	1993
party5
leaders_seat5	Ran in Davenport (lost)
last_election5	0 seats, 2.81%
seats_before5	0
seats5	0
seat_change5
popular_vote5	354,897
percentage5	8.02%
swing5	5.21pp
map_image	Ontario_Election_2007_Riding_Results_Map.svg
map_size	330px
map_caption	Popular vote by riding. As this is an FPTP election, seat totals are not determined by popular vote, but instead via results by each riding. Riding names are listed at the bottom.
title	Premier
posttitle	Premier after election
before_election	Dalton McGuinty
before_party
after_election	Dalton McGuinty
after_party

54 seats were needed for a majority General elections were held on October 10, 2007, to elect members (MPPs) of the 39th Legislative Assembly of the Province of Ontario, Canada. The Liberals under Premier Dalton McGuinty won the election with a majority government, winning 71 out of a possible 107 seats with 42.2% of the popular vote. The election saw the third-lowest voter turnout in Ontario provincial elections, setting a then record for the lowest voter turnout with 52.8% of people who were eligible voted. This broke the previous record of 54.7% in the 1923 election, but would end up being surpassed in the 2011 and 2022 elections.

As a result of legislation passed by the Legislature in 2004, election dates are now fixed by formula so that an election is held approximately four years after the previous election, unless the government is defeated by a vote of "no confidence" in the Legislature. Previously, the governing party had considerable flexibility to determine the date of an election anywhere up to five years of being elected. The date of this election was originally presumed to be October 4, 2007;{{Cite news | access-date = 2014-05-28 | archive-date = 2014-06-05 | archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20140605184812/http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/ontario-government-changes-election-date/article1070534/ | url-status = live

In the same election, there was a provincial referendum on whether to change from first-past-the-post to mixed member proportional representation, as recommended by the Ontario Citizens' Assembly on Electoral Reform. This measure failed, with 37% of the participating electorate and 5 out of 107 ridings voting for the new system; a 60% supermajority was required province-wide, with at least 2/3 of the ridings also supporting it by a simple majority.

Issues

Although all four parties released a variety of detailed platform proposals, the campaign was dominated almost entirely by John Tory's promise to extend public funding to Ontario's faith-based schools.

In Ontario at present, the Catholic school system is fully funded in the same manner as public schools. However, other religious schools, such as Jewish, Muslim or Christian schools, are not funded by the province. This discrepancy has been cited as discriminatory by both the Supreme Court of Canada and the United Nations Human Rights Committee, although to date the province has taken no action to change its existing school funding policies, on the grounds that Catholic school funding in the province is mandated by the Constitution of Canada.

Tory's proposal to extend funding to religious schools was controversial, with polls confirming that a clear majority of Ontarians opposed the proposal. Even some of Tory's own caucus, most notably Bill Murdoch and Garfield Dunlop, openly criticized the proposal during the election campaign. After heavy opposition, Tory changed his position later in the campaign, promising a free vote on the issue.

The Liberals and the NDP were both opposed to non-Catholic religious school funding, while the Green Party proposed eliminating the province's existing Catholic school funding in favour of a single public school board. Liberal opposition to non-Catholic religious school funding, especially private Muslim schools, appealed to Islamophobic sentiment in the province.

There was a brief flurry of interest in health care issues when John Tory emphasized his support for an increasing role for the private sector in health care.

In the final week of the campaign, NDP leader Howard Hampton criticized the media for focusing almost entirely on religious schools and virtually ignoring other issues.

Redistribution

With the passing of Bill 214 and the Representation Act, 2005 in the year 2005, Ontario's electoral boundaries were no longer identical to the federal electoral boundaries.{{Cite web |access-date = 2007-08-22 |archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20070927175109/http://www.electionsontario.on.ca/en-CA/Tools/ElectoralDistricts/ElectoralDistricts.htm |archive-date = 2007-09-27 |url-status = dead

The 11 northern electoral districts were: Algoma—Manitoulin, Kenora—Rainy River, Nickel Belt, Nipissing, Parry Sound—Muskoka, Sault Ste. Marie, Sudbury, Thunder Bay—Atikokan, Thunder Bay—Superior North, Timiskaming—Cochrane, and Timmins—James Bay.

As a result of the redistribution, none of the three major parties took fewer seats than it held at the dissolution of the previous legislature. The Liberals and the Progressive Conservatives each gained seats, while the New Democratic Party's seat total remained unchanged.

Contests

Candidates nominated	Ridings	Party	Totals
align="center"	Lib	align="center"	PC	align="center"	NDP	align="center"	Green
4	17	17	17
5	38	38	38
6	32	32	32
7	12	12	12
8	7	7	7
9	1	1	1
Totals	107	107	107

Results

|- style="background-color:#CCCCCC" !rowspan="2" colspan="2" style="text-align:left;" |Party !rowspan="2" style="text-align:left;" |Party leader !rowspan="2"|Candidates !colspan="4" style="text-align:center;" |Seats !colspan="3" style="text-align:center;" |Popular vote

- style="background-color:#CCCCCC"
}

Two independent candidates are running for the unregistered Communist League, while two others are perennial candidates of the Communist Party of Canada (Marxist–Leninist).
Eileen Butson, party president, acted as the CoR's spokesperson as the party decided not to have a party leader.

Vote and seat summaries

|File:Ternary ON2003.svg |2003 |File:Ternary ON2007.svg |2007

Synopsis of results

Main article: Results by riding of the Ontario general election, 2007

Riding	Winning party	Turnout
including spoilt ballots	Votesminor political parties receiving less than 1% of the popular vote are aggregated under "Other"; independent candidates are aggregated separately	[2003](2003-ontario-general-election)	1st
place	Votes	Share	Margin
#	Margin
%	2nd
place	Lib	PC	NDP	Green	Ind	Other	Total
Ajax—Pickering	New		Lib	19,857	49.07%	5,959	14.73%		PC	49.34%	19,857	13,898	3,275	3,067	-	368	40,465
Algoma—Manitoulin		Lib		Lib	11,361	42.56%	1,498	5.61%		NDP	54.49%	11,361	3,744	9,863	1,374	-	354	26,696
Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale		Lib		Lib	20,445	41.16%	3,353	6.75%		PC	58.12%	20,445	17,092	6,814	4,112	222	985	49,670
Barrie		PC		Lib	19,548	42.20%	1,381	2.98%		PC	51.95%	19,548	18,167	3,700	4,385	179	341	46,320
Beaches—East York		NDP		NDP	17,522	44.32%	7,307	18.48%		Lib	54.37%	10,215	6,166	17,522	4,785	-	851	39,539
Bramalea—Gore—Malton		Lib		Lib	19,106	47.00%	7,172	17.64%		PC	43.65%	19,106	11,934	5,016	4,120	-	471	40,647
Brampton—Springdale		Lib		Lib	17,673	50.66%	6,965	19.97%		PC	43.45%	17,673	10,708	3,800	2,292	-	410	34,883
Brampton West		Lib		Lib	20,746	46.19%	5,626	12.53%		PC	43.92%	20,746	15,120	4,901	3,471	185	488	44,911
Brant		Lib		Lib	23,485	49.16%	9,698	20.30%		PC	52.69%	23,485	13,787	6,536	3,272	289	403	47,772
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound		PC		PC	21,156	46.61%	6,117	13.48%		Green	59.96%	6,774	21,156	1,721	15,039	-	695	45,385
Burlington		PC		PC	21,578	41.34%	1,854	3.55%		Lib	58.91%	19,724	21,578	5,728	4,779	-	391	52,200
Cambridge		PC		PC	17,942	41.70%	3,238	7.52%		Lib	49.69%	14,704	17,942	5,896	3,842	-	646	43,030
Carleton—Mississippi Mills		PC		PC	25,126	47.83%	8,350	15.89%		Lib	55.30%	16,776	25,126	4,002	5,517	-	1,112	52,533
Chatham-Kent—Essex		Lib		Lib	18,782	51.98%	8,415	23.29%		PC	48.81%	18,782	10,367	4,601	2,054	-	326	36,130
Davenport		Lib		Lib	12,467	41.82%	1,587	5.32%		NDP	45.84%	12,467	2,805	10,880	3,047	114	500	29,813
Don Valley East		Lib		Lib	19,667	55.63%	10,789	30.52%		PC	51.30%	19,667	8,878	3,759	2,287	467	297	35,355
Don Valley West		Lib		Lib	23,080	50.44%	4,924	10.76%		PC	59.20%	23,080	18,156	2,138	2,202	-	183	45,759
Dufferin—Caledon		PC		PC	16,522	41.85%	3,884	9.84%		Lib	52.50%	12,638	16,522	3,893	6,430	-	-	39,483
Durham		PC		PC	21,515	46.96%	6,785	14.81%		Lib	54.34%	14,730	21,515	5,521	4,053	-	-	45,819
Eglinton—Lawrence		Lib		Lib	17,402	43.23%	2,145	5.33%		PC	55.62%	17,402	15,257	4,039	2,871	90	594	40,253
Elgin—Middlesex—London		Lib		Lib	20,085	49.10%	7,625	18.64%		PC	53.09%	20,085	12,460	4,643	3,363	-	353	40,904
Essex		Lib		Lib	19,970	48.02%	9,570	23.01%		PC	48.69%	19,970	10,400	8,638	2,220	-	358	41,586
Etobicoke Centre		Lib		Lib	22,939	50.07%	7,272	15.87%		PC	59.40%	22,939	15,667	3,847	3,357	-	-	45,810
Etobicoke—Lakeshore		Lib		Lib	20,218	45.99%	6,736	15.32%		PC	53.62%	20,218	13,482	5,837	3,467	480	478	43,962
Etobicoke North		Lib		Lib	15,147	54.85%	9,346	33.84%		PC	45.19%	15,147	5,801	4,101	1,312	-	1,255	27,616
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell		Lib		Lib	24,345	60.51%	13,418	33.35%		PC	52.80%	24,345	10,927	2,281	2,344	-	337	40,234
Guelph		Lib		Lib	20,346	40.92%	8,166	16.42%		PC	57.03%	20,346	12,180	6,880	9,750	-	571	49,727
Haldimand—Norfolk		PC		PC	26,135	60.92%	16,599	38.69%		Lib	56.25%	9,536	26,135	4,546	2,230	-	457	42,904
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock		PC		PC	24,273	49.99%	9,946	20.49%		Lib	59.22%	14,327	24,273	5,785	3,475	-	692	48,552
Halton		PC		PC	22,677	41.84%	176	0.32%		Lib	51.53%	22,501	22,677	4,160	4,376	-	487	54,201
Hamilton Centre	New		NDP	17,176	44.72%	6,080	15.83%		Lib	48.63%	11,096	5,673	17,176	3,610	-	852	38,407
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek		Lib		NDP	16,272	37.65%	1,210	2.80%		Lib	51.36%	15,062	9,310	16,272	2,122	-	452	43,218
Hamilton Mountain		Lib		Lib	17,387	37.24%	1,734	3.71%		NDP	53.33%	17,387	10,982	15,653	2,172	-	493	46,687
Huron—Bruce		Lib		Lib	20,469	45.95%	6,863	15.41%		PC	59.80%	20,469	13,606	5,932	2,911	595	1,035	44,548
Kenora—Rainy River		NDP		NDP	14,281	60.62%	8,529	36.20%		Lib	46.16%	5,752	2,757	14,281	769	-	-	23,559
Kingston and the Islands		Lib		Lib	23,277	47.23%	12,276	24.91%		PC	53.96%	23,277	11,001	10,129	4,321	-	556	49,284
Kitchener Centre		Lib		Lib	17,484	45.90%	7,767	20.39%		PC	49.58%	17,484	9,717	6,707	3,162	425	599	38,094
Kitchener—Conestoga	New		Lib	16,315	41.82%	1,865	4.78%		PC	49.25%	16,315	14,450	4,545	2,805	-	901	39,016
Kitchener—Waterloo		PC		PC	20,748	40.84%	4,900	9.65%		Lib	53.63%	15,848	20,748	8,902	4,707	-	598	50,803
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex		Lib		Lib	18,228	43.27%	2,933	6.96%		PC	55.18%	18,228	15,295	4,520	3,329	-	758	42,130
Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington	New		PC	18,213	40.58%	820	1.83%		Lib	52.08%	17,393	18,213	5,623	3,186	-	462	44,877
Leeds—Grenville		PC		PC	22,755	56.24%	11,153	27.56%		Lib	55.11%	11,602	22,755	2,821	2,907	-	377	40,462
London—Fanshawe		Lib		Lib	13,742	38.68%	3,982	11.21%		PC	48.21%	13,742	9,760	9,350	2,548	129	-	35,529
London North Centre		Lib		Lib	21,669	47.17%	10,772	23.45%		PC	50.00%	21,669	10,897	7,649	5,720	-	-	45,935
London West		Lib		Lib	25,967	52.42%	13,956	28.18%		PC	57.83%	25,967	12,011	5,562	5,184	201	607	49,532
Markham—Unionville		Lib		Lib	21,149	59.47%	11,575	32.55%		PC	40.51%	21,149	9,574	2,597	1,910	-	335	35,565
Mississauga—Brampton South	New		Lib	19,738	53.78%	10,405	28.35%		PC	42.46%	19,738	9,333	3,785	3,846	-	0	36,702
Mississauga East—Cooksville		Lib		Lib	22,249	58.93%	13,534	35.85%		PC	47.48%	22,249	8,715	3,192	2,361	-	1,235	37,752
Mississauga—Erindale		Lib		Lib	21,551	47.85%	6,638	14.74%		PC	47.08%	21,551	14,913	5,056	3,521	-	-	45,041
Mississauga South		Lib		Lib	19,195	46.68%	5,008	12.18%		PC	54.08%	19,195	14,187	3,745	3,629	-	365	41,121
Mississauga—Streetsville		Lib		Lib	20,264	52.55%	9,109	23.62%		PC	45.63%	20,264	11,155	3,944	2,925	-	274	38,562
Nepean—Carleton		PC		PC	27,070	50.28%	9,339	17.35%		Lib	54.61%	17,731	27,070	4,000	4,500	-	533	53,834
Newmarket—Aurora		PC		PC	19,460	42.72%	1,355	2.97%		Lib	55.21%	18,105	19,460	3,290	4,182	-	518	45,555
Niagara Falls		Lib		Lib	22,210	47.53%	7,670	16.41%		PC	51.08%	22,210	14,540	4,605	5,373	-	-	46,728
Niagara West—Glanbrook		PC		PC	24,311	51.06%	10,021	21.05%		Lib	58.57%	14,290	24,311	5,809	3,206	-	-	47,616
Nickel Belt		NDP		NDP	15,126	46.59%	2,762	8.51%		Lib	53.56%	12,364	3,263	15,126	1,374	-	341	32,468
Nipissing		Lib		Lib	13,781	42.11%	458	1.40%		PC	56.79%	13,781	13,323	4,136	1,248	-	238	32,726
Northumberland—Quinte West		Lib		Lib	22,287	45.37%	6,957	14.16%		PC	54.92%	22,287	15,330	6,492	5,012	-	-	49,121
Oak Ridges—Markham	New		Lib	28,564	48.22%	7,197	12.15%		PC	47.77%	28,564	21,367	4,698	3,815	342	455	59,241
Oakville		Lib		Lib	23,761	49.81%	7,102	14.89%		PC	58.26%	23,761	16,659	3,091	3,916	-	279	47,706
Oshawa		PC		PC	15,977	39.02%	2,495	6.09%		NDP	48.94%	8,762	15,977	13,482	2,474	-	253	40,948
Ottawa Centre		Lib		Lib	18,255	34.91%	2,094	4.00%		NDP	58.25%	18,255	10,416	16,161	6,458	283	720	52,293
Ottawa—Orléans		Lib		Lib	25,649	52.86%	8,954	18.45%		PC	57.86%	25,649	16,695	3,088	2,214	-	875	48,521
Ottawa South		Lib		Lib	24,015	50.13%	9,809	20.48%		PC	56.60%	24,015	14,206	4,467	3,902	-	1,311	47,901
Ottawa—Vanier		Lib		Lib	20,954	50.96%	11,785	28.66%		PC	51.49%	20,954	9,169	6,049	4,293	255	396	41,116
Ottawa West—Nepean		Lib		Lib	23,842	50.64%	8,871	18.84%		PC	57.51%	23,842	14,971	4,564	2,903	207	592	47,079
Oxford		PC		PC	18,445	47.27%	6,990	17.91%		Lib	53.72%	11,455	18,445	4,421	3,441	659	601	39,022
Parkdale—High Park		Lib		NDP	18,194	44.71%	6,294	15.47%		Lib	57.43%	11,900	6,024	18,194	3,938	-	638	40,694
Parry Sound—Muskoka		PC		PC	17,348	47.22%	7,529	20.49%		Lib	56.76%	9,819	17,348	5,015	4,557	-	-	36,739
Perth—Wellington		Lib		Lib	18,096	46.65%	5,758	14.84%		PC	54.62%	18,096	12,338	3,912	3,051	217	1,175	38,789
Peterborough		Lib		Lib	24,466	47.72%	11,290	22.02%		PC	57.47%	24,466	13,176	8,523	4,473	-	634	51,272
Pickering—Scarborough East		Lib		Lib	19,762	48.63%	6,878	16.92%		PC	54.01%	19,762	12,884	4,563	2,572	275	585	40,641
Prince Edward—Hastings	New		Lib	20,963	46.36%	6,123	13.54%		PC	54.16%	20,963	14,840	6,287	2,663	-	463	45,216
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke		PC		PC	24,975	62.34%	15,070	37.62%		Lib	57.55%	9,905	24,975	3,038	1,777	-	368	40,063
Richmond Hill	New		Lib	19,456	47.83%	5,329	13.10%		PC	47.23%	19,456	14,127	3,565	3,210	-	318	40,676
St. Catharines		Lib		Lib	21,029	47.23%	8,165	18.34%		PC	53.83%	21,029	12,864	7,069	3,152	-	406	44,520
St. Paul's		Lib		Lib	21,280	47.43%	9,370	20.88%		PC	55.99%	21,280	11,910	7,061	3,744	328	545	44,868
Sarnia—Lambton		Lib		PC	16,145	38.16%	3,702	8.75%		Lib	55.20%	12,443	16,145	11,349	2,376	-	-	42,313
Sault Ste. Marie		Lib		Lib	19,316	60.13%	10,841	33.75%		NDP	55.56%	19,316	2,349	8,475	1,377	-	605	32,122
Scarborough—Agincourt		Lib		Lib	19,541	58.08%	11,010	32.72%		PC	46.01%	19,541	8,531	3,531	1,511	-	532	33,646
Scarborough Centre		Lib		Lib	17,775	53.66%	9,455	28.55%		PC	48.06%	17,775	8,320	4,401	1,827	-	800	33,123
Scarborough—Guildwood		Lib		Lib	14,430	42.52%	4,927	14.52%		PC	51.28%	14,430	9,503	7,441	1,811	-	751	33,936
Scarborough—Rouge River		Lib		Lib	22,307	65.06%	17,347	50.59%		PC	41.82%	22,307	4,960	4,691	1,276	-	1,055	34,289
Scarborough Southwest		Lib		Lib	15,114	46.15%	6,755	20.63%		PC	49.70%	15,114	8,359	5,930	2,649	-	695	32,747
Simcoe—Grey		PC		PC	24,270	50.65%	11,823	24.67%		Lib	54.86%	12,447	24,270	4,417	5,428	273	1,085	47,920
Simcoe North		PC		PC	22,986	49.82%	8,892	19.27%		Lib	54.06%	14,094	22,986	4,240	4,709	-	112	46,141
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry		Lib		Lib	18,660	48.86%	3,866	10.12%		PC	51.81%	18,660	14,794	2,813	1,680	-	247	38,194
Sudbury		Lib		Lib	19,307	58.77%	10,393	31.64%		NDP	51.11%	19,307	2,605	8,914	1,608	124	293	32,851
Thornhill		Lib		PC	22,244	45.92%	1,725	3.56%		Lib	52.17%	20,519	22,244	2,657	2,507	158	356	48,441
Thunder Bay—Atikokan		Lib		Lib	10,928	37.69%	50	0.17%		NDP	52.36%	10,928	5,918	10,878	1,270	-	-	28,994
Thunder Bay—Superior North		Lib		Lib	13,373	46.78%	2,435	8.52%		NDP	53.91%	13,373	2,688	10,938	1,586	-	-	28,585
Timiskaming—Cochrane		Lib		Lib	11,588	42.90%	634	2.35%		NDP	54.80%	11,588	3,659	10,954	811	-	-	27,012
Timmins—James Bay		NDP		NDP	13,176	51.60%	3,447	13.50%		Lib	53.76%	9,729	2,191	13,176	437	-	-	25,533
Toronto Centre		Lib		Lib	21,522	47.85%	12,438	27.65%		PC	49.90%	21,522	9,084	8,464	4,412	358	1,141	44,981
Toronto—Danforth		NDP		NDP	17,975	45.85%	6,527	16.65%		Lib	53.18%	11,448	4,423	17,975	4,372	-	986	39,204
Trinity—Spadina		NDP		NDP	18,508	41.15%	4,328	9.62%		Lib	49.63%	14,180	6,235	18,508	5,156	504	390	44,973
Vaughan		Lib		Lib	28,964	61.90%	20,205	43.18%		PC	46.31%	28,964	8,759	5,470	2,975	623	-	46,791
Welland		NDP		NDP	24,910	53.94%	14,330	31.03%		Lib	55.29%	10,580	8,722	24,910	1,973	-	-	46,185
Wellington—Halton Hills		PC		PC	21,533	49.16%	8,221	18.77%		Lib	57.49%	13,312	21,533	3,914	4,489	-	555	43,803
Whitby—Oshawa		PC		PC	22,694	44.00%	4,134	8.02%		Lib	53.54%	18,560	22,694	5,734	3,745	-	839	51,572
Willowdale		Lib		Lib	21,166	47.73%	5,608	12.65%		PC	49.51%	21,166	15,558	3,699	2,960	119	847	44,349
Windsor—Tecumseh		Lib		Lib	17,894	49.34%	9,058	24.98%		NDP	44.04%	17,894	6,106	8,836	2,696	-	735	36,267
Windsor West		Lib		Lib	16,821	50.19%	8,217	24.52%		NDP	41.02%	16,821	5,652	8,604	1,974	-	463	33,514
York Centre		Lib		Lib	16,646	48.73%	5,618	16.45%		PC	49.07%	16,646	11,028	3,713	2,207	-	568	34,162
York—Simcoe		PC		PC	19,173	46.23%	6,388	15.40%		Lib	49.73%	12,785	19,173	4,205	4,664	-	645	41,472
York South—Weston		Lib		Lib	13,846	42.94%	452	1.40%		NDP	46.34%	13,846	3,173	13,394	1,226	-	603	32,242
York West		Lib		Lib	13,246	54.74%	6,482	26.79%		NDP	44.44%	13,246	2,484	6,764	1,199	225	282	24,200

: = new riding : = merged riding : = open seat : = turnout is above provincial average : = incumbent re-elected : = incumbent changed allegiance : = other incumbents renominated

Comparative analysis for ridings (2007 vs 2003)

Riding and winning party	%	Change (pp)	%	Change (pp)
Ajax—Pickering	Lib	Hold	49.34	{{bartable	-10.29	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	49.07
Algoma—Manitoulin	Lib	Hold	54.49	{{bartable	-3.34	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	42.56
Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale	Lib	Hold	58.12	{{bartable	2.84	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	41.16
Barrie	Lib	Gain	51.95	{{bartable	-4.07	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	42.20
Beaches—East York	NDP	Hold	54.37	{{bartable	-1.26	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	44.32
Bramalea—Gore—Malton	Lib	Hold		43.65	{{bartable	-6.16	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	47.00
Brampton—Springdale	Lib	Hold	43.45	{{bartable	-6.80	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	50.66
Brampton West	Lib	Hold	43.92	{{bartable	-6.91	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	46.19
Brant	Lib	Hold	52.69	{{bartable	-3.45	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	49.16
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound	PC	Hold	59.96	{{bartable	-2.94	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	46.61
Burlington	PC	Hold	58.91	{{bartable	-2.60	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	41.34
Cambridge	PC	Hold	49.69	-{{bartable	-4.10	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	41.70
Carleton—Mississippi Mills	PC	Hold	55.30	{{bartable	-6.12	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	47.83
Chatham—Kent—Essex	Lib	Hold	48.81	{{bartable	-6.83	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	51.98
Davenport	Lib	Hold	45.84	{{bartable	-3.22	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	41.82
Don Valley East	Lib	Hold	51.30	{{bartable	-4.02	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	55.63
Don Valley West	Lib	Hold	59.20	{{bartable	-0.65	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	50.44
Dufferin—Caledon	PC	Hold	52.50	{{bartable	-6.00	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	41.85
Durham	PC	Hold	54.34	{{bartable	-4.06	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	46.96
Eglinton—Lawrence	Lib	Hold	55.62	{{bartable	-2.27	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	43.23
Elgin—Middlesex—London	Lib	Hold	53.09	{{bartable	-7.23	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	49.10
Essex	Lib	Hold	48.69	{{bartable	-4.68	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	48.02
Etobicoke Centre	Lib	Hold	59.40	{{bartable	-3.09	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	50.07
Etobicoke—Lakeshore	Lib	Hold	53.62	{{bartable	-5.90	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	45.99
Etobicoke North	Lib	Hold	45.19	{{bartable	-2.72	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	54.85
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell	Lib	Hold	52.80	{{bartable	-4.81	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	60.51
Guelph	Lib	Hold	57.03	{{bartable	-3.05	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	40.92
Haldimand—Norfolk	PC	Hold	56.25	{{bartable	-3.13	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	60.92
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock	PC	Hold	59.22	{{bartable	-3.95	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	49.99
Halton	PC	Hold	51.53	{{bartable	-8.20	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	41.84
Hamilton Centre	NDP	New	48.63	New	44.72	New
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek	NDP	Gain	51.36	{{bartable	4.63	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	37.65
Hamilton Mountain	Lib	Hold	53.33	{{bartable	-5.63	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	37.24
Huron—Bruce	Lib	Hold	59.80	{{bartable	-6.66	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	45.95
Kenora—Rainy River	NDP	Hold	46.16	{{bartable	-2.41	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	60.62
Kingston and the Islands	Lib	Hold	53.96	{{bartable	-0.33	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	47.23
Kitchener Centre	Lib	Hold	49.58	{{bartable	-3.66	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	45.90
Kitchener—Conestoga	Lib	New	49.25	New	41.82	New
Kitchener—Waterloo	PC	Hold	53.63	{{bartable	-5.44	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	40.84
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex	Lib	Hold	55.18	{{bartable	-4.57	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	43.27
Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington	PC	Gain	52.08	{{bartable	-6.60	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	40.58
Leeds—Grenville	PC	Hold	55.11	{{bartable	-7.00	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	56.24
London—Fanshawe	Lib	Hold	48.21	{{bartable	-4.24	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	38.68
London North Centre	Lib	Hold	50.00	{{bartable	-6.44	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	47.17
London West	Lib	Hold	57.83	{{bartable	-2.19	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	52.42
Markham—Unionville	Lib	New	40.51	New	59.47	New
Mississauga—Brampton South	Lib	New	42.46	New	53.78	New
Mississauga East—Cooksville	Lib	New	47.48	New	58.93	New
Mississauga—Erindale	Lib	New	47.08	New	47.85	New
Mississauga South	Lib	Hold	54.08	{{bartable	-2.81	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	46.68
Mississauga—Streetsville	Lib	New	45.63	New	52.55	New
Nepean—Carleton	PC	Hold	54.61	{{bartable	-7.61	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	50.28
Newmarket—Aurora	PC	New	55.21	New	42.72	New
Niagara Falls	Lib	Hold	51.08	{{bartable	-6.32	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	47.53
Niagara West—Glanbrook	PC	Hold	58.57	{{bartable	-2.28	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	51.06
Nickel Belt	NDP	Hold	53.56	{{bartable	-8.26	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	46.59
Nipissing	Lib	Hold	56.79	{{bartable	-5.81	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	42.11
Northumberland—Quinte West	Lib	Hold	54.92	{{bartable	-5.39	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	45.37
Oak Ridges—Markham	Lib	New	47.77	New	48.22	New
Oakville	Lib	Hold	58.26	{{bartable	-4.05	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	49.81
Oshawa	PC	Hold	48.94	{{bartable	-2.53	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	39.02
Ottawa Centre	Lib	Hold	58.25	{{bartable	2.62	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	34.91
Ottawa—Orléans	Lib	Hold	57.86	{{bartable	-5.53	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	52.86
Ottawa South	Lib	Hold	56.60	{{bartable	-2.17	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	50.13
Ottawa—Vanier	Lib	Hold	51.49	{{bartable	0.69	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	50.96
Ottawa West—Nepean	Lib	Hold	57.51	{{bartable	-4.62	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	50.64
Oxford	PC	Hold	53.72	{{bartable	-6.50	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	47.27
Parkdale—High Park	NDP	Gain	57.43	{{bartable	2.50	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	44.71
Parry Sound—Muskoka	PC	Hold	56.76	{{bartable	-3.27	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	47.22
Perth—Wellington	Lib	Hold	54.62	{{bartable	-5.07	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	46.65
Peterborough	Lib	Hold	57.47	{{bartable	-5.29	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	47.72
Pickering—Scarborough East	Lib	New	54.01	New	48.63	New
Prince Edward—Hastings	Lib	Hold	54.16	{{bartable	-3.04	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	46.36
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke	PC	Hold	57.55	{{bartable	-6.42	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	62.34
Richmond Hill	Lib	New	47.23	New	47.83	New
St. Catharines	Lib	Hold	53.83	{{bartable	-2.60	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	47.23
St. Paul’s	Lib	Hold	55.99	{{bartable	-2.04	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	47.43
Sarnia—Lambton	PC	Gain	55.20	{{bartable	-4.14	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	38.16
Sault Ste. Marie	Lib	Hold	55.56	{{bartable	-5.54	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	60.13
Scarborough—Agincourt	Lib	Hold	46.01	{{bartable	-6.87	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	58.08
Scarborough Centre	Lib	Hold	48.06	{{bartable	-8.54	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	53.66
Scarborough—Guildwood	Lib	New	51.28	New	42.52	New
Scarborough—Rouge River	Lib	Hold	41.82	{{bartable	-6.27	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	65.06
Scarborough Southwest	Lib	Hold	49.70	{{bartable	-5.18	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	46.15
Simcoe—Grey	PC	Hold	54.86	{{bartable	-5.43	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	50.65
Simcoe North	PC	Hold	54.06	{{bartable	-6.79	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	49.82
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry	Lib	Hold	51.81	{{bartable	-3.97	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	48.86
Sudbury	Lib	Hold	51.11	{{bartable	-4.84	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	58.77
Thornhill	PC	Gain	52.17	{{bartable	-5.61	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	45.92
Thunder Bay—Atikokan	Lib	Hold	52.36	{{bartable	-3.24	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	37.69
Thunder Bay—Superior North	Lib	Hold	53.91	{{bartable	-1.70	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	46.78
Timiskaming—Cochrane	Lib	Hold	54.80	{{bartable	-6.35	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	42.90
Timmins—James Bay	NDP	Hold	53.76	{{bartable	-3.54	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	51.60
Toronto Centre	Lib	Hold	49.90	{{bartable	-3.22	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	47.85
Toronto—Danforth	NDP	Hold	53.18	{{bartable	-2.69	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	45.85
Trinity—Spadina	NDP	Hold	49.63	{{bartable	-2.41	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	41.15
Vaughan	Lib	New	46.31	New	61.90	New
Welland	NDP	Hold	55.29	{{bartable	-4.96	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	53.94
Wellington—Halton Hills	PC	Hold	57.49	{{bartable	2.21	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	49.16
Whitby—Oshawa	PC	Hold	53.54	{{bartable	-6.86	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	44.00
Willowdale	Lib	Hold	49.51	{{bartable	-6.23	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	47.73
Windsor—Tecumseh	Lib	Hold	44.04	{{bartable	-3.77	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	49.34
Windsor West	Lib	Hold	41.02	{{bartable	-2.85	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	50.19
York Centre	Lib	Hold	49.07	{{bartable	-0.52	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	48.73
York—Simcoe	PC	Hold	49.73	{{bartable	-8.60	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	46.23
York South—Weston	Lib	Hold	46.34	{{bartable	-4.41	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	42.94
York West	Lib	Hold	44.44	{{bartable	0.49	-5	1em	background:#708090}}	54.74

Maps

File:Ontario general election, 2007 results by riding - Liberal Party strength.svg|Support for Liberal Party candidates by riding File:Ontario general election, 2007 results by riding - Progressive Conservative Party strength.svg|Support for Progressive Conservative Party candidates by riding File:Ontario general election, 2007 results by riding - New Democratic Party strength.svg|Support for New Democratic Party candidates by riding File:Ontario general election, 2007 results by riding - Green Party strength.svg|Support for Green Party candidates by riding

Principal races

Party in 1st place	Party in 2nd place	Total	align="center"	Lib	align="center"
–	58	13		71
24	–	1	1	26
10		–		10
Total	34	58	14	1	107

Parties	Seats
Total	107

1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	Total
71	34	2			107
26	58	22	1		107
10	14	65	18		107
	1	18	88		107
				63	63
				16	16
				8	8
				2	2
				1

Source	Party	Total
align="center"	Lib	align="center"	PC	align="center"	NDP
Incumbents returned	60	22
Open seats held	3	1
Ouster of incumbent changing allegiance	1
New seats gained	5	1
Incumbents defeated	2	2
Open seats gained
Total	71	26

Incumbent MPPs who did not run for re-election

Electoral district	New MPP
Hamilton Mountain	Marie Bountrogianni	Sophia Aggelonitis
Scarborough East	Mary Anne Chambers	riding dissolved
Hamilton West	Judy Marsales	riding dissolved
Nickel Belt	Shelley Martel	France Gélinas
Stoney Creek	Jennifer Mossop	Riding dissolved
Prince Edward—Hastings	Ernie Parsons	Leona Dombrowsky
Ottawa Centre	Richard Patten	Yasir Naqvi

Opinion polls

Since the 2003 general election, several polls were conducted to determine the ongoing preference of voters. They showed a decline in Liberal support following the 2004 Ontario budget. Overall, support for the governing Liberals declined slightly since the 2003 election, the NDP gained some ground since the 2003 election, and the PCs' poll numbers did not change significantly since 2003. Support for the Green Party increased significantly, a shift which paralleled the increase in support for the party's federal counterpart. During the pre-election period, the Ontario Greens did not appear as an option in some of the polls.

Polls indicate results for decided voters. More information can be found in the footnotes to each poll, including undecided results, if provided by the pollster. A dash indicates the absence of a prompt for that party.

Polling firm	Date released	Date poll conducted	Liberal	Progressive Conservative	New Democrats	Green
Harris-Decima	title=Liberals ride lead in polls while PC school funding flip fails to boost support	publisher=SES Research/Sun Media	date=October 9, 2007	url=http://www.sesresearch.com/library/polls/POLONT-F07-T261.pdf	access-date=2007-10-09	archive-date=2007-10-25	archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20071025025847/http://www.sesresearch.com/library/polls/POLONT-F07-T261.pdf	url-status=live}} The poll results, based on a one-week sample of 709 Ontarians, have a margin of error of 3.7 per cent, 19 times out of 20.	October 6 – 7, 2007	42	31	17	10
SES Research	October 9, 2007{{cite press release	title = Liberal Victory Imminent	publisher = SES Research/Sun Media	date = October 9, 2007	url = http://www.sesresearch.com/library/polls/POLONT-F07-T261.pdf	access-date = 2007-10-09
Environics	October 9, 2007{{cite press release	title = Ontario Liberals Headed for Majority Government	publisher = Environics	date = October 9, 2007	url = http://erg.environics.net/media_room/default.asp?aID=649	access-date = 2007-10-09
Strategic Counsel	October 8, 2007{{cite press release	title = Poll says Ontario Liberals have 15-point lead	CTV News]]/The Globe and Mail	date = October 8, 2007	url = https://www.ctvnews.ca/poll-says-ontario-liberals-have-15-point-lead-1.259345	archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20071017162610/http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20071008/ontario_poll_071008/20071008?hub=TopStories
Ipsos-Reid	October 6, 2007{{cite press release	title = Tory's Gambit Fails: Grits Headed For Majority Government	publisher = Ipsos-Reid/CanWest/National Post	date = October 6, 2007	url = http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=3671	access-date = 2007-10-06
Angus Reid Strategies	October 5, 2007{{Cite news	title = Ontario Liberals Hold Six-Point Advantage: Tory's Leadership Edge Evaporates; Now Tied with McGuinty	work = Ontario Politics	publisher = Angus-Reid Strategies	date = 2007-10-05	url = http://angusreidstrategies.com/uploads/pages/pdfs/2007.10.05%20Ontario%20Press%20Release.pdf
Decima Research	October 2, 2007{{Cite news	title=Liberal lead firming	publisher=The Canadian Press/Harris-Decima	date=October 2, 2007	url=http://www.decima.com/en/pdf/news_releases/071003E.pdf	access-date=2007-10-03
SES Research	October 2, 2007{{cite press release	title = Grits Move Into Majority Territory	publisher = SES Research/Sun Media	date = October 2, 2007	url = http://www.sesresearch.com/library/polls/POLONT-F07-T256.pdf	access-date = 2007-10-02
Ipsos-Reid	September 29, 2007{{cite press release	title = Post Debate Tory Tumble Gives McGuinty Liberals Ten Point Lead	publisher = Ipsos-Reid/CanWest/National Post	date = September 29, 2007	url = http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=3656	access-date = 2007-09-29
Environics	September 28, 2007{{cite press release	title = Opposition grows to funding faith-based schools, but issue has little impact on vote intention	publisher = Environics	date = September 28, 2007	url = http://erg.environics.net/media_room/default.asp?aID=647	access-date = 2007-09-28
Decima Research	September 26, 2007{{Cite news	title=Voting intentions stuck	work=Ontario Politics	publisher=Canadian Press/Harris Decima	date=2007-09-26	url=http://www.decima.com/en/pdf/news_releases/070926E.pdf
Angus Reid Strategies	September 25, 2007{{Cite news	title = McGuinty's Grits Lead by Five Points in Ontario	work = Ontario Politics	publisher = Angus-Reid Strategies	date = 2007-09-25	url = http://www.angus-reid.com/uppdf/OntarioII.pdf
SES Research	September 25, 2007{{Cite news	last =Nanos	first =Nikita	title =Grits Lead by Eight Points	work =Ontario Politics	publisher =SES Research/Sun Media
Ipsos-Reid	September 20, 2007{{cite press release	title = Will Hot Debate Thaw Frozen Voters?	publisher = Ipsos-Reid/CanWest/National Post	date = September 20, 2007	url = http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=3649	access-date = 2007-09-20
Decima Research	September 19, 2007{{Cite news	title = Liberals maintain lead over Tories in latest poll	publisher = The Canadian Press/Harris-Decima	date = September 19, 2007	url = https://www.thestar.com/OntarioElection/article/258378	access-date = 2007-09-19
Strategic Counsel	September 18, 2007{{Cite news	title = Ontario voters pan faith-based education: poll	CTV News]]/The Globe and Mail	date = September 18, 2007	url = http://v1.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20070918.wontpoll18/business	access-date = 2014-05-28
Ipsos-Reid	September 15, 2007{{cite press release	title = Ontario vote essentially stagnant after 1st week	publisher = Ipsos-Reid/CanWest/National Post	date = September 15, 2007	url = http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=3640	access-date = 2007-09-16
Environics	September 13, 2007{{cite press release	title = Ontarians divided over proposal to extend public funding to all religious schools	publisher = Environics	date = September 13, 2007	url = http://erg.environics.net/media_room/default.asp?aID=643	access-date = 2007-09-14
Angus Reid Strategies	September 13, 2007{{Cite news	title = Liberals Lead by Two Points in Ontario	work = Polls & Research	publisher = Angus Reid Global Monitor	date = 2007-09-14	url = http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/28232/liberals_lead_by_two_points_in_ontario
Decima Research	September 12, 2007{{Cite news	last =Perkel	first =Colin	title =Liberals lead Conservatives in poll	publisher =Decima Research/Toronto Star	date =2007-09-12
Ipsos-Reid	September 10, 2007{{Cite news	title = Liberal lead over Tories slipping in Ontario: poll	publisher = Ipsos-Reid/CanWest/National Post	date = 2007-09-10	url = http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/news/story.html?id=99ba49ca-f032-494c-b8fb-5f74bccef902&k=54740&p=2	archive-url = https://archive.today/20130118182356/http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/news/story.html?id=99ba49ca-f032-494c-b8fb-5f74bccef902&k=54740&p=2
SES Research	August 30, 2007{{Cite news	last =Nanos	first =Nikita	title =Ontario grits lead by six points	work =Ontario Politics	publisher =SES Research/Sun Media
Ipsos-Reid	August 28, 2007{{Cite news	title = As the Ontario Election Draws Near, The GTA moves Red while the Rest of Ontario moves Blue	work = CanWest Polls	publisher = Ipsos-Reid/CanWest	date = 2007-09-10	url = http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=3616
Ipsos-Reid	August 21, 2007{{Cite news	title = As the Ontario Election Draws Near, The GTA moves Red while the Rest of Ontario moves Blue	work = CanWest Polls	publisher = Ipsos-Reid/CanWest	date = 2007-08-21	url = http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=3608
The Strategic Counsel	August 20, 2007{{Cite news	last =Howlett	first =Karen	title =McGuinty support slips to minority status, poll finds	work =Ontario Politics	publisher =The Globe and Mail/CTV News
Ipsos-Reid	July 3, 2007{{Cite news	title = Race Tightens as Summer Heats Up	publisher = Ipsos-Reid/CanWest Polls	date = July 3, 2007	url = http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/act_hit_cntr.cfm?id=3555&Region=us&PDF_name=mr070703-1.pdf	archive-url = https://wayback.archive-it.org/all/20070710093511/http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/act_hit_cntr.cfm?id=3555&Region=us&PDF_name=mr070703-1.pdf
Environics	July 2, 2007{{cite press release	title = Provincial Party Support March 2007	publisher = Environics	date = July 2, 2007	url = http://erg.environics.net/media_room/default.asp?aID=642	access-date = 2007-09-10
Pollara	June 16, 2007{{Cite news	last = Kalinoswski	first = Tess	title = A $17,5B transit promise	publisher = The Toronto Star	date = June 16, 2007
SES Research	June 3, 2007{{cite press release	title = Ontario Liberals and PCs in Dead Heat	publisher = SES Research	date = June 3, 2007	url = http://www.sesresearch.com/library/polls/POLONT-S07-T236.pdf	access-date = 2007-06-10
Environics	May 18, 2007{{cite press release	title = Provincial Party Support March 2007	publisher = Environics	date = May 18, 2007	url = http://erg.environics.net/media_room/default.asp?aID=635	access-date = 2007-05-23
Ipsos-Reid	February 24, 2007{{cite press release	title = Ontario Politics With Just Over 7 Months To "E" Day Liberals(38%) Lead Tories (33%), NDP (17%) And Green (9%)	publisher = Ipsos-Reid	date = February 24, 2007	url = http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=3379	access-date = 2007-05-23
Environics	January 5, 2007{{cite press release	title = Provincial Party Support December 2006	publisher = Environics	date = January 5, 2007	url = http://erg.environics.net/media_room/default.asp?aID=627	access-date = 2007-06-10
SES Research	December 17, 2006{{cite press release	title = Ontario Political Landscape	publisher = SES Research	date = December 17, 2006	url = http://www.sesresearch.com/library/polls/POLONT-F06-T207.pdf	access-date = 2007-06-10
Environics	October 26, 2006{{cite press release	title = Ontario Liberals establish solid lead	publisher = Environics	date = October 26, 2006	url = http://erg.environics.net/media_room/default.asp?aID=613	access-date = 2007-06-10
EKOS	October 18, 2006{{cite press release	title = Ontario Liberals With Clear Lead	EKOS]]	date = October 18, 2006	url = http://www.ekos.com/media/default.asp	access-date = 2007-06-10
SES Research	October 7, 2006{{cite press release	title = Ontario Liberals Lead by Seven Points	publisher = SES Research	date = October 7, 2006	url = http://www.sesresearch.com/library/polls/POLONT-F06-T7.pdf	access-date = 2007-06-10
Environics	September 9, 2006{{cite press release	title = Provincial Party Support results June 2006	publisher = Environics	date = September 9, 2006	url = http://erg.environics.net/media_room/default.asp?aID=610	access-date = 2007-06-11
Vector Research	May 14, 2006	-	39	38	18	5
Environics	April 13, 2006	-	34	39	24	-
SES Research	March 23, 2006	-	41	34	20	5
Léger Marketing	March 22, 2006	-	34	34	20	-
SES Research	February 17, 2006	-	41	37	18	4
Vector Research	January 21, 2006	-	36	35	23	6
Environics	October 16, 2005	-	42	35	21	-
Vector Research	September 19, 2005	-	33	41	20	6
SES Research	June 14, 2005	-	41	35	21	4
Léger Marketing	June 8, 2005	-	42	34	17	-
Léger Marketing	April 29, 2005	-	36	37	19	-
Vector Research	April 13, 2005	-	35	41	18	5
Environics	April 11, 2005	-	35	41	21	-
Léger Marketing	March 17, 2005	-	44	33	19	-
Vector Research	December 16, 2004	-	39	32	24	5
Environics	December 2004	-	37	39	23	-
Environics	December 11, 2004	-	35	40	23	-
Léger Marketing	September 2004	-	37	35	19	-
Vector Research	August 22, 2004	-	37	32	23	9
Environics	August 9, 2004	-	35	37	23	4
Ipsos-Reid	June 14, 2004	-	32	39	23	6
SES Research	June 5, 2004	-	34	41	20	-
Decima Research	May 27, 2004	-	32	29	21	-
Environics	May 6, 2004	-	45	33	20	1
Ipsos-Reid	April 19, 2004	-	45	30	19	5
SES Research	January 23, 2004	-	49	29	10	-
Environics	January 21, 2004	-	50	30	16	3
Ipsos-Reid	December 14, 2003	-	51	27	16	6
Ipsos-Reid	November 8, 2003	-	56	27	12	5
Environics	October 30, 2003	-	49	29	18	2
[Last election](2003-ontario-general-election) (October 2, 2003)	-	46.4	34.6	14.7	2.8

Riding specific polls

Riding	Polling firm	Date released	Date poll conducted	Liberal	Progressive Conservative	New Democrats	Green
Don Valley West	COMPAS	October 1, 2007{{cite press release	title = Liberal Minister Kathleen Wynne Leading by Wide Margin: PC Schooling Promise Stirs Unease about Integrating Immigrants	COMPAS]]/Ottawa Citizen	date = October 1, 2007	url = http://www.compas.ca/data/071001-DonValleyWestToryVsWynne-EP.pdf	access-date = 2007-10-06
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound	Oraclepoll Research	url=http://www.gpo.ca/sites/greenparty.on.ca/files/Bruce%20Grey%20Owen%20Sound%20Riding%20Report.doc	title=Archived copy	access-date=October 7, 2007	archive-date=October 4, 2007	archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20071004210912/http://www.gpo.ca/sites/greenparty.on.ca/files/Bruce%20Grey%20Owen%20Sound%20Riding%20Report.doc	url-status=dead }}	October 2 – 3, 2007	21	37	13	27
Nickel Belt	Oraclepoll Research	October 4, 2007	October 2 – 3, 2007	41	7	49	3

Timeline

May 13, 2004 - Andrea Horwath of the NDP is elected in a by-election in Hamilton East and collects over 60% of the vote. The riding was previously held by the Liberals.
May 18, 2004 - The 2004 Ontario budget is announced. Given its tax increase and healthcare cuts, it is unpopular with the public.
June 1, 2004 - Bill 87, which would establish fixed election dates, is introduced in the Legislative Assembly.
August 9, 2004 - A poll by Environics shows the Liberals in second place for the first time since the last election. The NDP is also rising in support. According to the poll, the Progressive Conservatives lead with 37% followed by the Liberals with 35%, the NDP with 23% and the Greens with 4%.{{cite press release | access-date = 2007-05-23 | archive-date = 2007-09-27 | archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20070927200049/http://erg.environics.net/media_room/default.asp?aID=560 | url-status = live
September 18, 2004 - John Tory becomes leader of the Ontario Progressive Conservative Party replacing outgoing former premier Ernie Eves and defeating Jim Flaherty and Frank Klees.
January 31, 2005 - Eves resigns his seat in the provincial legislature, clearing the way for Tory to run in the resulting by-election.
March 17, 2005 - Tory is elected in the Dufferin—Peel—Wellington—Grey by-election, holding the seat for the Conservatives.
March 29, 2005 - Tory is officially installed as the Leader of the Opposition.
August 18, 2005 - Speaker Alvin Curling resigns his Scarborough—Rouge River seat to accept a diplomatic appointment. A by-election must be called within six months.
October 26, 2005 - A by-election is called for Scarborough—Rouge River for November 24.
November 24, 2005 - Bas Balkissoon wins in the Scarborough–Rouge River by-election, holding the seat for the Liberals.
November 29, 2005 - Progressive Conservative MPPs Jim Flaherty, John Baird, and NDP MPP Marilyn Churley resign their seats in the provincial legislature to run for seats in the House of Commons of Canada in the 2006 federal election.
March 1, 2006 - By-elections are called for the ridings of Toronto—Danforth, Nepean—Carleton, and Whitby—Ajax for March 30. These seats became vacant when they were resigned on November 29, 2005, so the MPPs could run in the federal election of January 2006.
March 30, 2006 - the NDP's Peter Tabuns wins the Toronto—Danforth by-election, Progressive Conservative Lisa MacLeod wins in Nepean—Carleton, and Progressive Conservative Christine Elliott wins in Whitby-Ajax. The Liberals' star candidates in all three ridings fell short.{{Cite web |archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20060420053519/http://www.electionsontario.on.ca/en/march_30_unofficial_results_en.shtml |archive-date = 2006-04-20 |url-status = dead
May 18, 2006 - Former Education Minister Gerard Kennedy resigns his Parkdale—High Park seat to pursue his bid for the federal Liberal leadership.{{Cite news | archive-url =https://web.archive.org/web/20071012082720/http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20060518/gerard_kennedy_060518/20060518?hub=TopStories | url-status =dead | archive-date =October 12, 2007 | access-date = 2007-05-23}}
September 14, 2006 - Cheri DiNovo of the NDP wins the by-election to replace Liberal Gerard Kennedy in Parkdale-High Park.{{Cite web |access-date=2007-05-23 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070627015049/http://www.electionsontario.on.ca/results/2006ByElections/index_PHP.jsp?flag=E&layout=G |archive-date=June 27, 2007 |url-status=dead

September 18, 2006 - Joe Cordiano, MPP for York South—Weston, resigns from cabinet and legislature to spend more time with family.{{Cite news |url-status=dead |archive-url= https://web.archive.org/web/20071001030809/https://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/thestar/access/1136206611.html?dids=1136206611:1136206611&FMT=ABS&FMTS=ABS:FT&date=Sep+27%2C+2006&author=IAN+URQUHART&pub=Daily+Mercury&edition=&startpage=A.13&desc=Passing+ships+firing+cannonballs+at+McGuinty |archive-date= October 1, 2007 | access-date = 2007-05-23 }}
September 25, 2006 - Tony Wong, MPP for Markham, resigns from the legislature to run for York Region council in Markham, Ontario.{{Cite news | access-date = 2007-05-23 | archive-date = 2007-10-01 | archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20071001011136/http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/thestar/access/1142001381.html?dids=1142001381%3A1142001381&FMT=ABS&FMTS=ABS%3AFT&date=Sep+26%2C+2006&author=&pub=Markham+Economist+&+Sun&edition=&startpage=1&desc=MPP+quits+Queen%27s+Park | url-status = dead
September 28, 2006 - Cam Jackson, MPP for Burlington, resigns from the Legislature to run for mayor of Burlington.{{Cite news | url-status= dead |archive-url= https://web.archive.org/web/20071001045628/https://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/thestar/access/1137263171.html?dids=1137263171:1137263171&FMT=ABS&FMTS=ABS:FT&date=Sep+29%2C+2006&author=Christine+Cox&pub=The+Spectator&edition=&startpage=A.1&desc=Jackson+joins+race+for+Burlington+mayor |archive-date= October 1, 2007 | access-date = 2007-05-23 }}
January 10, 2007 - By-elections called in the ridings of: Burlington; Markham; and York South—Weston to be held on February 8, 2007.
February 7, 2007 - The provincial government announces election date will be October 10, 2007 to avoid conflict with Shemini Atzeret on October 4.
February 8, 2007 - In three by-elections, Paul Ferreira of the NDP wins York South–Weston from the Liberals while Michael Chan of the Liberals and Joyce Savoline of the PCs hold Markham and Burlington, respectively.
March 29, 2007 - MPP Tim Peterson leaves the Liberal caucus and intends to run in this election as a Progressive Conservative.{{Cite news | access-date = 2007-05-23 | archive-date = 2016-03-05 | archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20160305202049/http://www.thestar.com/news/2007/03/29/mpp_peterson_brother_of_expremier_to_join_tories.html | url-status = live
April 25, 2007 - Democratic Renewal Minister Marie Bountrogianni introduces Bill 218, a bill to have longer voting hours – 9 a.m. to 9 p.m. – that identification be presented, advanced polls increased to 13 days from 6 days, and amendments regarding the referendum on election formulas for electing MPPS. The proposed legislation will also deal with suggestions for online voting and with complaints that the permanent voters' list is unreliable because it does not keep up with moves and deaths.{{Cite news | access-date = 2014-05-28 | archive-date = 2014-06-05 | archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20140605181743/http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/ontario-acts-to-undo-electoral-apathy/article684067/ | url-status = live
May 18, 2007 - New Democratic Party MPP Shelley Martel announced she will not seek re-election in her Nickel Belt riding. She is leaving politics for family reasons, and to pursue other career opportunities.{{Cite news | access-date = 2007-05-18 | archive-date = 2016-03-07 | archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20160307092344/http://www.thestar.com/news/2007/05/18/mpp_shelley_martel_wont_run_again.html | url-status = live
May 18, 2007 - A poll released by Environics showed the governing Liberals in second place for the first time since March 2006. According to the poll, the Progressive Conservatives lead with 39% followed by the Liberals with 33%, the NDP with 26% and the Greens with 2%. The poll was conducted between March 13 to April 3, 2007.
June 3, 2007 - A poll released by SES Research showed that the Liberals and Progressive Conservatives are in a dead-heat, with 29.8% of voters supporting each party. The NDP had 16% and the Green Party had 9%. 15% were undecided.
June 4, 2007 Today, Bill 218 is given third reading and royal assent. The bill amends the Elections Act with the following changes: making electors present proper identification; methods of updating the permanent register of electors and creating an electronic system to allow electors to change their personal information online; alternative forms of voting and electronic vote counting can now take place; scrutineers from outside an electoral district, now have the same privileges as a resident scrutineer; Ballots will now show party affiliation and any nickname or familiar name of that the candidate requests; the Chief Electoral Officer is allowed to advertise information regarding the October 2007 Referendum on electoral reform.{{Cite web | access-date = 2007-06-10 | archive-date = 2007-06-14 | archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20070614024841/http://www.ontla.on.ca/bills/bills-files/38_Parliament/Session2/b218ra.pdf | url-status = dead
June 5, 2007 - Liberal Premier Dalton McGuinty prorogues the Legislature, stating that the passing of 14 bills during the session meant that the government's agenda had been fulfilled.{{Cite news | access-date = 2014-05-28 | archive-date = 2014-06-05 | archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20140605181748/http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/mcguinty-admits-health-tax-will-haunt-him/article1086339/ | url-status = live | access-date = 2007-06-10
July 11, 2007 - Citing health concerns Mary Anne Chambers, the Children and Youth Services Minister and MPP for Scarborough East, will not be seeking re-election in the October 10 Ontario vote. She would have run in the Scarborough—Guildwood electoral district.{{Cite news | access-date = 2007-07-11 | archive-date = 2007-09-29 | archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20070929122525/http://www.thestar.com/article/234628 | url-status = live
July 26, 2007 - Ontario Minister of Citizenship and Immigration Mike Colle resigned after an auditor general's report severely criticizes how $32 million in year-end grants to ethnic groups was administered.{{Cite news |access-date = 2007-07-26 |archive-date = 2014-09-03 |archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20140903133821/http://www.thestar.com/news/2007/07/26/minister_quits_over_grants.html |url-status = live
September 10, 2007 - Official election call. Writ issued as per omnibus Budget Act, Bill 187, that includes the amendment to the Election Act to set writ issuance date. Premier McGuinty formally asked the Lt. Governor to dissolve the legislature. The campaign will be 29 days long, one day longer than the minimum.{{Cite news | access-date = 2014-05-28 | archive-date = 2014-06-05 | archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20140605181758/http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/ontario-election-to-be-called-sept-10/article684469/ | url-status = live

September 18, 2007- Nomination papers due. A candidate or their designate must submit their nomination papers and deposit in person at the returning office by 2 p.m.{{Cite web |access-date=2007-08-20 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070928071438/http://www.elections.on.ca/en-CA/CandidatesAndParties/Candidates/ImportantDatesforCandidates.htm |archive-date=2007-09-28 |url-status=dead
September 20, 2007- Televised leadership debate between McGuinty, Tory and Hampton.
September 22 – October 4, 2007 - Advance polling stations open for early voting from 9:00 a.m. until 9:00 p.m.
October 10, 2007 - Ontario general election from 9:00 a.m. until 9:00 p.m. EDT or in the most western part of the province 8:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m. CDT as per Provision 20, Section 40(1) and 40(2) of the Election Act.

Election results

At 9:23 pm EDT, Citytv projected a Liberal majority government. CTV News made the same call at 9:30 pm EDT, followed by CBC News at 9:37 pm EDT, and Canadian Press at 9:52 pm EDT.

Also at 10:30 pm EDT, CBC and CTV reported that Progressive Conservative leader John Tory had called Liberal Leader Dalton McGuinty to concede the election. At 10:39 pm EDT, Tory was declared defeated by Canadian Press in the riding of Don Valley West.

At 10:43 pm EDT, Liberal leader Dalton McGuinty took the stage to give his speech to the public, breaking tradition of the defeated party leaders going first.

Each party lost at least one incumbent MPP — Liberals Mario Racco and Caroline Di Cocco, PCs Joe Tascona, Tim Peterson and John Tory and NDP Paul Ferreira were all defeated. However, each party's losses were offset by gains in other seats. The actual changes in party standings were accounted for entirely by the four new seats resulting from redistribution and the defeat of Peterson. Overall, however, most incumbent MPPs were returned in their ridings.

McGuinty became the first Liberal leader in Ontario to win two successive majorities in the legislature since Mitchell Hepburn in the 1937 election.

Breakdown by region

Northern Ontario

Liberal	Progressive Conservative	New Democrats	Green
Seats	7	1	3

All eleven ridings in Northern Ontario were retained by their incumbent parties. The popular vote, however, shifted dramatically, with several Liberal incumbents holding on only very narrowly against NDP challengers. Most notably, Bill Mauro retained Thunder Bay—Atikokan by a margin of just 36 votes against John Rafferty, whom Mauro had defeated in 2003 by a margin of over 11,000 — Rafferty, in fact, spent much of the night leading Mauro. A judicial recount on October 31 increased Mauro's margin of victory to 50 votes. David Ramsay, similarly, trailed New Democrat John Vanthof in Timiskaming—Cochrane for much of the night, pulling ahead to a winning margin of 634 votes only in the final few polls to report. This was the narrowest margin of victory in Ramsay's 22-year career. Michael Gravelle also retained Thunder Bay—Superior North by an uncharacteristically narrow margin over Jim Foulds.

As well, Monique Smith retained Nipissing by just 377 votes over Progressive Conservative candidate Bill Vrebosch — in 2003, she had defeated Progressive Conservative incumbent Al McDonald by a wider margin of over 3,000 votes.

In keeping with this trend, New Democrat incumbents Howard Hampton and Gilles Bisson widened their margins of victory over Liberal challengers compared to 2003, and France Gélinas maintained the same margin that her predecessor, Shelley Martel, had attained in the previous election.

Notably, the rise in popular support for the New Democrats in Northern Ontario carried over into the 2008 federal election, in which the NDP won nearly every seat in the region for the first time in its history.

Eastern Ontario

Liberal	Progressive Conservative	New Democrats	Green
Seats	9	5	0

In Eastern Ontario, the new riding of Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington was carried by PC candidate Randy Hillier, while all 13 existing ridings were carried by their incumbent parties. With the exception of Yasir Naqvi, who carried Ottawa Centre by a much smaller margin over the NDP than Richard Patten had attained in 2003, Liberals in Ottawa improved their winning margins, although outside of Ottawa the popular vote trend remained relatively stable.

Central Ontario

Liberal	Progressive Conservative	New Democrats	Green
Seats	3	8	0

The most conservative-friendly area of the province, the PC vote largely held up, with the only Liberal gain being Aileen Carroll winning Barrie, the seat she used to represent federally. This was countered by a PC nominal gain in Newmarket—Aurora. The area also delivered the strongest support in the province for the Green Party, with Shane Jolley finishing a very strong second in Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound with 33.1% of the vote, the best finish ever received by any Green candidate in Canada to that point. The Greens also knocked the NDP into fourth place in a majority of area ridings.

Midwestern Ontario

Liberal	Progressive Conservative	New Democrats	Green
Seats	6	5	0

A politically mixed region, Midwestern Ontario had every incumbent party re-elected, as well as some anomalous results; in an election where the PCs were largely held to rural areas, and the Liberals consolidated an urban/suburban base, Elizabeth Witmer held onto the riding of Kitchener—Waterloo for the PCs, while the Liberals won in rural ridings in which they were the incumbent party, such as Huron—Bruce and Perth—Wellington. Further away from the provincewide result, on an election night which demonstrated Liberal strength province wide, Haldimand—Norfolk—Brant delivered the most crushing defeat for a Liberal candidate in the province, with the victorious PC incumbent Toby Barrett coming out 16,571 votes and 38.6% ahead of the Liberal.

Brampton, Mississauga & Oakville

Liberal	Progressive Conservative	New Democrats	Green
Seats	9	0	0

Although the suburban Western GTA had traditionally been a good area for the PCs, winning many seats in the area as recently as the Harris days, where it formed part of the 905-area backbone of the PC government, the Liberals won every seat in the area handily, with the victorious Liberal candidates averaging at around 50%. Even Mississauga South, which prior to the 2003 election had not voted Liberal provincially since the riding's creation, and had been expected to be a very tight race, proved a surprisingly easy victory for Charles Sousa, who gained the seat back for the Liberals from Tim Peterson, who had crossed the floor. The NDP continued to be a non-factor in the area, while the Greens growth in popular vote across the province was reflected, with the Greens even beating the NDP into fourth place in Oakville, which ironically had been the only riding in the province the Greens had not run in the previous election.

Southern Durham and York

Liberal	Progressive Conservative	New Democrats	Green
Seats	6	3	0

The Liberals continued to dominate York Region, with each incumbent being re-elected by a comfortable margin except in Thornhill where Mario Racco lost to PC candidate Peter Shurman. The newly created riding of Ajax—Pickering, projected to be a close race, elected Liberal Joe Dickson by over 6,000 votes despite having no party nominate incumbents. In southern Durham Region, Liberal Wayne Arthurs was re-elected to the newly distributed Pickering—Scarborough East, while Progressive Conservative Christine Elliott was re-elected to Whitby—Oshawa. Despite high expectations for Sid Ryan's fourth run as an NDP candidate in Oshawa, PC incumbent Jerry Ouellette was again re-elected by a wider majority than in 2003.

Hamilton, Burlington & Niagara

Liberal	Progressive Conservative	New Democrats	Green
Seats	4	3	3

An area with several close seats, and a fairly even distribution of seats, every party had a realistic chance of increasing its seat count here. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek, which was a merger of a Liberal held riding and an NDP held riding, and had neither incumbent running, was the most interesting match of the night, with the NDP winning a close race. It proved to be the only change of the election, and every other riding returned the incumbent party, although many in close races, such as Hamilton Mountain (Liberals over NDP), Halton, (PCs over Liberals) and Burlington (PCs over Liberals).

Southwestern Ontario

Liberal	Progressive Conservative	New Democrats	Green
Seats	9	1	0

In an area with a strong rural-urban divide, both the NDP and PCs had strong hopes of making gains against the Liberals. The NDP had strong hopes of upsetting high-profile Liberals in both Windsor West, and Windsor—Tecumseh, given the NDP's ownership of those seats federally, and the continued decline of the local industrial economy. London—Fanshawe was similarly also a top target, as the NDP had the riding federally and finished a close second in 2003. Overall, however, the only area seat that changed hands was Sarnia—Lambton, with Culture Minister Caroline Di Cocco, the most high-profile Liberal casualty of the night, losing to PC challenger Bob Bailey.

Toronto

Liberal	Progressive Conservative	New Democrats	Green
Seats	18	0	4

All ridings in Toronto were retained by their incumbent parties, with the exception of York South—Weston. New Democrat Paul Ferreira, who had won the seat from the Liberals in a by-election in February 2007, was narrowly defeated by a swing back to Liberal candidate Laura Albanese. Almost twice as many people voted in the riding in the general election compared to the by-election.

In Toronto's other notable race, Liberal incumbent Kathleen Wynne defeated PC leader John Tory in Don Valley West. Tory previously represented Dufferin—Caledon, but had chosen to run in a Toronto riding in the general election.

Toronto's only incumbent from 2003 not to run again was Liberal MPP Mary Anne Chambers. The Liberals successfully retained the seat under new candidate Margarett Best.

References

Notes

Citations

References

(October 11, 2007). "Boring campaign behind poor voter turnout: analysts". CTV News.
(24 July 2014). "Electoral System Referendum Act, 2007, S.O. 2007, c. 1 - Bill 155".
Alphonso, Caroline. (September 10, 2007). "Ontario campaign starts with verbal attacks". The Globe and Mail.
"Progressive Conservatives to soften position on faith-based schools: report".
Christ Selley. (21 November 2015). "Progressive Conservatives to soften position on faith-based schools: report". The National Post.
Robin V. Sears. (1 November 2007). "How Ontario got a one-issue campaign".
(October 9, 2007). "Liberals ride lead in polls while PC school funding flip fails to boost support". [[SES Research]]/[[Sun Media]].
"Archived copy".
[https://web.archive.org/web/20071012200215/http://thesudburystar.com/ArticleDisplay.aspx?e=724008 The Sudbury Star - Ontario, CA]
link. (July 18, 2010 [York South—Weston]. 216 of 216 polls reporting. Accessed February 8, 2007)
(March 2018)
(March 2018)

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2007-ontario-general-election 2007-elections-in-canada general-elections-in-ontario 2007-in-ontario october-2007-in-canada

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