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2007 Kentucky gubernatorial election

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2007 Kentucky gubernatorial election

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FieldValue
election_name2007 Kentucky gubernatorial election
countryKentucky
typepresidential
ongoingno
previous_election2003 Kentucky gubernatorial election
previous_year2003
next_election2011 Kentucky gubernatorial election
next_year2011
election_dateNovember 6, 2007
turnout37.8% ( 2.4%)
image1File:Steve Beshear by Gage Skidmore (1).jpg
image_size150x150px
nominee1**Steve Beshear**
party1Democratic Party (United States)
popular_vote1**619,552**
percentage1**58.71%**
running_mate1**Daniel Mongiardo**
image2File:Ernie Fletcher (1).jpg
nominee2Ernie Fletcher
party2Republican Party (United States)
popular_vote2435,773
percentage241.29%
running_mate2Robbie Rudolph
map_image
map_caption**Beshear**:
**Fletcher:**
titleGovernor
before_electionErnie Fletcher
before_partyRepublican Party (United States)
after_electionSteve Beshear
after_partyDemocratic Party (United States)

Fletcher:

The 2007 Kentucky gubernatorial election was held on November 6, 2007. In this election, incumbent Republican governor Ernie Fletcher ran for reelection to a second term but was soundly defeated by Democratic challenger Steve Beshear. A primary election to determine the Republican and Democratic nominees for governor was held on May 22, 2007, in which Fletcher and Beshear won their respective primaries.

Background

Fletcher came under increasing criticism from both parties after his involvement in a state employee hiring controversy, in which he was accused of illegally hiring merit system (civil service) employees for their political affiliations and loyalties. An investigation by Greg Stumbo, the attorney general of Kentucky, and a special grand jury led to the indictment of 13 Fletcher administration officials. Fletcher issued a blanket pardon for anyone in his administration (other than himself) who was or may have been involved in the scandal. Fletcher himself was later indicted by a grand jury for three misdemeanors: conspiracy, official misconduct and political discrimination. All were related to the merit-system investigation. On August 24, 2006, Fletcher reached a deal with Stumbo that led to the dismissal of the charges in exchange for Fletcher's acknowledgment that "the evidence strongly indicates wrongdoing by his administration with regard to personnel actions within the merit system. Further, the governor hereby states that these actions were inappropriate and that he regrets their occurrence and accepts responsibility for them as head of the executive branch of state government." (See Ernie Fletcher: Merit system investigation) Fletcher's approval rating as of May 11, 2007 was at 38%, putting him among the lowest governors in the nation.

Former U.S. Rep. Anne Northup, who had lost reelection in 2006, and Paducah businessman Billy Harper challenged Fletcher in the Republican primary. Both had supported and worked for Fletcher's 2003 campaign. Despite his troubles, Fletcher was able to fend off the primary challenge, winning just over a majority of the vote (see below).

On the Democratic side, an increasingly competitive primary campaign developed. Louisville businessman Bruce Lunsford spent over five million dollars, most of it being his own money, in the campaign, and picked Stumbo as his running mate for lieutenant governor. On May 7, Kentucky State Treasurer Jonathan Miller withdrew from the race and endorsed former Lt. Gov. Steve Beshear. Lunsford, Beshear, state House Speaker Jody Richards, and former Lt. Gov. Steve Henry consistently polled significantly ahead of the other candidates. Given the crowded field, many believed a runoff election was likely between the top two finishers — which polls suggested would be Beshear and Lunsford — if no candidate was able to obtain at least 40% of the vote. Beshear, however, was able to avoid a runoff with 41% (see below).

Democratic primary

Candidates

  • Steve Beshear – former Lt. Governor of Kentucky, 1983–1987; former attorney general of Kentucky, 1979–1983; former State Representative, 1974–1979. :*Running mate: State Senator Daniel Mongiardo, 2001–2007.

  • Gatewood Galbraith – Attorney, perennial candidate :*Running mate: Mark Wireman

  • Steve Henry – former Lt. Governor of Kentucky, 1995–2003 :*Running Mate: Fayette County Property Valuation Administrator Renee True, 1992–2009

  • Otis Hensley – Private contractor from Wallins Creek, Kentucky, who received 3% of the vote in the Democratic primary in 2003. :*Running mate: Richard Robbins

  • Bruce Lunsford – Louisville businessman; sought the Democratic nomination for governor in 2003; withdrew four days before the primary, endorsing Jody Richards. :*Running mate: Greg Stumbo, Attorney General of Kentucky 2004–2007; former State Representative, 1985–2003.

  • Jody Richards – State Representative, 1975–2019 (Speaker of the House, 1996–2007); received 47% of the vote in the Democratic primary for Governor of Kentucky in 2003. :*Running mate: John Y. Brown III, Kentucky Secretary of State 1995–2003.

Polling

SourceDateSteve
BeshearGatewood
GalbraithSteve
HenryOtis
HensleyBruce
LunsfordJody
RichardsJonathan
Miller
Survey USAMay 18–20, 2007**32%**7%17%1%23%12%N/A
Penn, Schoen and BerlandMay 16–17, 2007**26%**N/A13%N/A22%12%N/A
GarinHartYang ResearchMay 14–15, 2007**35%**N/A13%N/A23%12%N/A
Survey USAMay 12–14, 2007**32%**5%18%1%23%12%N/A
Courier-Journal Bluegrass PollMay 10–14, 2007**27%**4%13%1%21%7%N/A
Survey USAApril 28–30, 200723%6%18%1%**29%**9%7%
Mellman GroupApril 19–22, 200715%N/A**24%**N/A16%9%20%
Survey USAMarch 31 – April 2, 200715%8%**20%**1%**20%**12%8%
Survey USAMarch 3–5, 200715%6%**26%**2%7%13%8%
GarinHartYang ResearchFebruary 20–22, 2007**21%**N/A**21%**N/A8%16%8%

Results

Primary results by county:

| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ]]

Republican primary

Candidates

  • Ernie Fletcher – Incumbent governor of Kentucky, 2003–2007; former U.S. representative for Kentucky's 6th congressional district, 1999–2003; former State Representative, 1995–1997 :*Running mate: Robbie Rudolph, State Secretary of Executive Cabinet, 2006–2007; State Secretary of Finance, 2003–2006.

  • Billy Harper – Businessman :*Running mate: Dick Wilson.

  • Anne Northup – former U.S. representative for Kentucky's 3rd congressional district, 1997–2007; former State Representative, 1987–1997. :*Running mate: Jeff Hoover, state representative 1997–2019.

Polling

SourceDateErnie
FletcherBilly
HarperAnne
Northup
Survey USAMay 18–20, 2007**44%**17%34%
Courier-Journal Bluegrass PollMay 10–15, 2007**41%**10%26%
Survey USAMay 12–14, 2007**44%**14%34%
Survey USAApril 28–30, 2007**46%**14%34%
Survey USAMarch 31 – April 2, 2007**40%**16%31%
Survey USAMarch 3–5, 2007**33%**13%31%
Public Opinion StrategiesJanuary 28–29, 2007**39%**10%**39%**

Results

Primary results by county:

| | | | | | | | | | ]]

General election

Polling

SourceDateSteve
Beshear (D)Ernie
Fletcher (R)
Survey USANovember 2–4, 2007**59%**39%
Rasmussen ReportsNovember 1, 2007**54%**39%
Survey USAOctober 27–29, 2007**60%**36%
Courier-Journal Bluegrass PollOctober 26–29, 2007**56%**33%
Research 2000October 22–24, 2007**55%**40%
Survey USAOctober 19–21, 2007**58%**38%
Survey USAOctober 8–9, 2007**56%**40%
Insider AdvantageSeptember 24–25, 2007**45%**35%
Courier-Journal Bluegrass PollSeptember 13–18, 2007**55%**35%
Preston-OsborneSeptember 13–17, 2007**51%**36%
Research 2000September 10–13, 2007**56%**39%
Survey USASeptember 8–10, 2007**58%**39%
Survey USAAugust 4–6, 2007**58%**37%
Preston-OsborneJuly 25 – August 2, 2007**49%**31%
Survey USAJuly 14–16, 2007**59%**36%
Insider AdvantageJuly 8–9, 2007**41%**38%
Rasmussen ReportsMay 24–25, 2007**51%**35%
Survey USAMay 23–24, 2007**62%**34%

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 1, 2007

Results

Fletcher conceded to Beshear at 9:00 PM on November 6.

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

  • Anderson (Largest city: Lawrenceburg)
  • Barren (Largest city: Glasgow)
  • Bell (Largest city: Middlesboro)
  • Bourbon (Largest city: Paris)
  • Boyle (Largest city: Danville)
  • Bracken (Largest city: Augusta)
  • Breckinridge (Largest city: Hardinsburg)
  • Bullitt (Largest city: Mount Washington)
  • Caldwell (Largest city: Princeton)
  • Calloway (Largest city: Murray)
  • Campbell (Largest city: Fort Thomas)
  • Carlisle (Largest city: Bardwell)
  • Christian (Largest city: Hopkinsville)
  • Clark (Largest city: Winchester)
  • Crittenden (Largest city: Marion)
  • Daviess (Largest city: Owensboro)
  • Edmonson (Largest city: Brownsville)
  • Fayette (Largest city: Lexington)
  • Fleming (Largest city: Flemingsburg)
  • Gallatin (Largest city: Warsaw)
  • Grant (Largest city: Williamstown)
  • Graves (Largest city: Mayfield)
  • Hardin (Largest city: Elizabethtown)
  • Harrison (Largest city: Cynthiana)
  • Hart (Largest city: Horse Cave)
  • Henry (Largest city: Eminence)
  • Hickman (Largest city: Clinton)
  • Hopkins (Largest city: Madisonville)
  • Johnson (Largest city: Paintsville)
  • Kenton (Largest city: Covington)
  • LaRue (Largest city: Hodgenville)
  • Leslie (Largest city: Hyden)
  • Logan (Largest city: Russellville)
  • Madison (Largest city: Richmond)
  • Marshall (Largest city: Benton)
  • Martin (Largest city: Inez)
  • Mason (Largest city: Maysville)
  • McCracken (Largest city: Paducah)
  • Meade (Largest city: Brandenburg)
  • Mercer (Largest city: Harrodsburg)
  • Metcalfe (Largest city: Edmonton)
  • Montgomery (Largest city: Mount Sterling)
  • Nelson (Largest city: Bardstown)
  • Nicholas (Largest city: Carlisle)
  • Ohio (Largest city: Hartford)
  • Owen (Largest city: Owenton)
  • Owsley (Largest city: Booneville)
  • Pendleton (Largest city: Falmouth)
  • Powell (Largest city: Stanton)
  • Robertson (largest municipality: Mount Olivet)
  • Scott (Largest city: Georgetown)
  • Shelby (Largest city: Shelbyville)
  • Simpson (Largest city: Franklin)
  • Spencer (Largest city: Taylorsville)
  • Todd (Largest city: Elkton)
  • Trigg (Largest city: Cadiz)
  • Warren (Largest city: Bowling Green)
  • Washington (Largest city: Springfield)

References

References

  1. "Voter Turnout Report for the 11/06/07 General Election".
  2. link. (May 21, 2008)
  3. "SurveyUSA News Poll #12133". Surveyusa.com.
  4. [https://web.archive.org/web/20110707223556/http://www.beloblog.com/WHAS_Blogs/onthemark/2007/05/new_susa_poll_monday_before_el.html Survey USA]
  5. [https://web.archive.org/web/20110707223618/http://www.beloblog.com/WHAS_Blogs/onthemark/2007/05/lunsford_pumping_his_own_poll.html Penn, Schoen and Berland]
  6. [http://theruraldemocrat.typepad.com/the_rural_democrat/2007/05/beshear_and_mon.html GarinHartYang Research] {{Webarchive. link. (2007-09-27)
  7. [https://web.archive.org/web/20080905194353/http://www.whas11.com/news/surveyusa/stories/051507whasmjdSurveyUSAGovernors.700a47f3.html Survey USA]
  8. [http://www.courier-journal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070517/NEWS0106/70517027 Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll]
  9. [http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=41594471-a83c-478c-a121-50ed82822f85&q=39889 Survey USA]
  10. [https://web.archive.org/web/20070927104105/http://www.bluegrassreport.org/MillerPollMemo.pdf Mellman Group]
  11. [http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=e4aaf314-6f94-448e-bb81-2323ba3f67c8 Survey USA]
  12. [https://web.archive.org/web/20071110231627/http://www.whas11.com/news/local/stories/030607whasmjdSurveyUSAGovernor.24d91d5f.html Survey USA]
  13. [https://web.archive.org/web/20071101001309/http://polwatchers.typepad.com/pol_watchers/2007/02/beshear_claims_.html GarinHartYang Research]
  14. "Kentucky State Board of Elections Welcome to the State Board of Elections". Elect.ky.gov.
  15. Steitzer, Stephenie. (2007-02-02). "Northup: Survey shows her tied with Fletcher". [[The Kentucky Post]].
  16. [http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=460fb891-a07b-4ab7-9ad5-4b9449293c51 Survey USA]
  17. [https://web.archive.org/web/20080827202302/http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008__1/2008_governor_elections/election_2007_kentucky_governor Rasmussen Reports]
  18. [http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=d1120b76-dcde-414f-b84b-9ca9b09bfde8 Survey USA]
  19. [http://www.courier-journal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071031/NEWS0106/71031014 Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll]
  20. [https://web.archive.org/web/20080911073259/http://polwatchers.typepad.com/pol_watchers/files/GovRace.pdf Research 2000]
  21. [http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=340fca9b-ba37-4c79-8a10-79b6fbb16659 Survey USA]
  22. [http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=10cbb157-469b-4851-b067-58b988b26175 Survey USA]
  23. [https://web.archive.org/web/20081121141214/http://politicalwire.com/archives/2007/09/27/two_polls_give_beshear_a_big_lead_in_kentucky.html Insider Advantage]
  24. [http://www.courier-journal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070920/NEWS01/70920023/1008 Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll]
  25. [https://web.archive.org/web/20071111022845/http://cfkybiz.hea.biz/articles/article.cfm?id=335 Preston-Osborne]
  26. [https://wayback.archive-it.org/all/20071129071420/http://polwatchers.typepad.com/pol_watchers/files/day1pollgovrace.pdf Research 2000]
  27. [http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=c9e5fe54-a54a-4d8c-9044-186b0715f893 Survey USA]
  28. [http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=8973a4f2-d0a6-4a89-acd9-9c9f05a65171 Survey USA]
  29. [https://web.archive.org/web/20070820235825/http://www.kentucky.com/news/state/story/148495.html Preston-Osborne]
  30. [http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ecd1d099-ce86-4202-bd2d-02e053d00b80&c=15 Survey USA]
  31. [https://web.archive.org/web/20071011082100/http://southernpoliticalreport.com/free/2007/July/7-10-07/kygovpoll.php Insider Advantage]
  32. [http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/kentucky_2007_beshear_d_51_fletcher_r_35 Rasmussen Reports]
  33. [http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=f23b228f-3379-4e39-a321-e7658ecfeda3&c=45 Survey USA]
  34. "22007 Gubernatorial Contests and Virginia General Assembly Update".
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