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2006 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election

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2006 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election

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FieldValue
election_name2006 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election
countryPennsylvania
typepresidential
ongoingno
previous_election2002 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election
previous_year2002
next_election2010 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election
next_year2010
election_dateNovember 7, 2006
image_sizex150px
image1Image:Governor Rendell (169339909) (cropped).jpg
nominee1**Ed Rendell**
running_mate1**Catherine Baker Knoll**
party1Democratic Party (United States)
popular_vote1**2,470,517**
percentage1**60.36%**
image2Image:Lynn Swann official photo (cropped).jpg
nominee2Lynn Swann
running_mate2Jim Matthews
party2Republican Party (United States)
popular_vote21,622,135
percentage239.64%
map_image{{switcher
default1
map_size250px
map_caption**Rendell**:
**Swann**:
**Tie**:
titleGovernor
before_electionEd Rendell
before_partyDemocratic Party (United States)
after_electionEd Rendell
after_partyDemocratic Party (United States)

|[[File:2006 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election results map by county.svg|260px]] |County results |[[File:2006 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election results map by congressional district.svg|260px]] |Congressional district results |[[File:PA 2006 Governor Election By Precinct.svg|260px]] |Precinct results Swann:
Tie:
The 2006 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election was held on November 7, 2006, and included the races for the governor of Pennsylvania and lieutenant governor of Pennsylvania. Incumbent Democratic Governor Ed Rendell successfully ran for re-election. Pennsylvania's first female lieutenant governor, Catherine Baker Knoll, was also running for re-election.

As of 2025, this is the most recent gubernatorial election in which the Democratic candidate has carried the following counties- Clearfield, Columbia, Elk, Mercer, Pike, Susquehanna, Warren, Washington, Wayne and Wyoming. This is the last time any statewide race in Pennsylvania resulted in a candidate getting over 60% of the vote.

Background

Rendell and Knoll had the advantage of incumbency, important in the swing state of Pennsylvania. Rendell's approval rating as of May 2006 was 62%.

In the 2000 Presidential election, then Vice President Al Gore won the state 50.6%-46.4% over then Texas Governor George W. Bush. In 2004, Senator John Kerry carried the state 50.9%-48.4% over incumbent president Bush.

Although the state had voted Democratic in eight of the past 12 presidential elections, its Congressional delegation had been majority Republican for years. The counties of Philadelphia and Allegheny were the Democratic strongholds, while the central part of the state was where the Republican Party fared best. The 2005 statewide party registration had Democrats out-numbering Republicans in the state with 3,841,429 to 3,292,656, with 939,252 registered independent voters.

Democratic primary

Michael Morrill, the Green Party's nominee for governor in 2002, considered challenging Rendell on a progressive liberal platform. On February 13, 2006, Morrill however stated that he would not run, citing the toll his 2002 race took on his family. Rendell thus ran unopposed.

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Lynn Swann, Pittsburgh Steelers Hall-of Fame wide receiver and chairman of the President's Council on Physical Fitness and Sports

Withdrew

  • Jim Panyard, former president of the Pennsylvania Manufacturers Association
  • Jeff Piccola, Majority Whip of the Pennsylvania State Senate from Susquehanna Township
  • William Scranton III, former lieutenant governor and the 1986 nominee

Declined

  • Jane Earll, state senator from Erie County and nominee for lieutenant governor in 2002
  • Pat Toomey, former U.S. representative from Allentown and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2004
  • Mark Schweiker, former governor
  • Melissa Hart, U.S. representative from Pittsburgh (ran for re-election)
  • Rick Santorum, U.S. senator (ran for re-election)
  • Bruce Castor, District Attorney of Montgomery County and candidate for attorney general in 2004

Campaign

Lynn Swann, Jeff Piccola, Jim Panyard and Bill Scranton III all announced their intention to run in the Republican primary for governor in 2006. Scranton, who served two terms as Lieutenant Governor of Pennsylvania, was the son of popular former governor William Scranton, and a member of the wealthy Scranton family was the early front-runner. However, a series of blunders by his campaign, and a lack of momentum from the Piccola and Panyard campaigns moved Swann into presumptive nominee status. The state Republican party then endorsed Swann, leading the three other candidates to drop out ahead of the March deadline to file for the primary.

Results

General election

Candidates

  • Ed Rendell, incumbent governor of Pennsylvania (Democratic)
  • Lynn Swann, former Pittsburgh Steelers Hall of Fame wide receiver and chairman of the President's Council on Physical Fitness and Sports (Republican)
    • Running mate: Jim Matthews, Montgomery County Commissioner and brother of Chris Matthews

Withdrew

  • Marakay Rogers, attorney and 2004 Attorney General nominee (Green)

Failed to submit signatures

  • Hagan Smith, building contractor and chair of Butler County Constitution Party (Constitution)
  • Russ Diamond, 2005 General Assembly pay raise whistleblower (Independent)
    • Running mate: Tom Lingenfelter, former Republican state committeeman and perennial candidate

Four candidates were campaigning for governor, but only two went on to appear on the ballot in November. Constitution candidate Hagan Smith and Independent candidate Russ Diamond were unable to secure the necessary signatures to appear on the ballot. On August 11, Green Party candidate Marakay Rogers withdrew her nominating papers, following a challenge by Pennsylvania Democrats, who alleged more than 69,000 signatures on the petitions were fake names, unregistered voters or illegible. The challenge followed a Republican drive to collect signatures to put Green candidate Carl Romanelli on the ballot in the Senate race.

Rogers continued to campaign, hopeful that a federal appeals court would rule favorably in a lawsuit seeking to overturn the state's signature requirement for third-party candidates.

Analysis

url=http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_kmtpi/is_200608/ai_n16967992}}</ref>

In July 2005, a Zogby Poll showed Rendell with only a 47% to 41% lead over Lynn Swann. Some speculated that controversy over Act 72, proposed Medicaid cuts, and possibly even a legislative pay increase that was signed into law had reduced the Governor's popularity. Rendell led in other recent polls by significantly higher margins. Following that poll, Rendell's supporters pointed out that he has raised more money than his opponents, which they felt would help him spread his message. They also pointed out that as a sitting governor, Rendell had all of the traditional advantages of an incumbent.

Swann hoped to perform strongly in the conservative "T" section of the state (the central and northern regions) and in his native western Pennsylvania area. Swann canvassed for votes among tailgating voters in Philadelphia before the Steelers game against the Eagles. On February 7, Swann served as master of ceremonies for the Pittsburgh Steelers's Super Bowl XL victory parade before 250,000 people. Polls in early February showed Swann and Rendell in a statistical tie. However, Swann's momentum did not survive an effective barrage of advertising from Rendell in early spring and had trouble keeping up with Rendell's effective fundraising. Swann's focus on reform never caught traction, possibly as a result of his vocal support for Chip Brightbill and Robert Jubelirer, two legislative leaders who were defeated in the May 2006 primary election.

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political ReportNovember 6, 2006
Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 6, 2006
Rothenberg Political ReportNovember 2, 2006
Real Clear PoliticsNovember 6, 2006

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s) administeredEd
Rendell (D)Lynn
Swann (R)
Temple/Inquirer PollSeptember 24, 2006**60%**33%
RasmussenSeptember 22, 2006**56%**36%
Zogby/WSJSeptember 11, 2006**51.6%**42.1%
Zogby/WSJAugust 28, 2006**48.4%**43.5%
RasmussenAugust 25, 2006**50%**38%
Strategic VisionAugust 17, 2006**51%**41%
QuinnipiacAugust 16, 2006**57%**38%
RasmussenJuly 26, 2006**50%**40%
Zogby/WSJJuly 24, 2006**47.5%**41.1%
Strategic VisionJuly 20, 2006**49%**36%
RasmussenJune 26, 2006**50%**36%
QuinnipiacJune 22, 2006**55%**31%
Zogby/WSJJune 21, 2006**47.7%**43.4%
Strategic VisionJune 15, 2006**49%**38%
RasmussenMay 25, 2006**52%**34%
QuinnipiacMay 12, 2006**55%**33%
Strategic VisionMay 10, 2006**49%**41%
Keystone PollMay 3, 2006**49%**35%
RasmussenApril 29, 200641%**44%**
IssuesPA/Pew PollApril 17–26, 2006**30%**29%
MuhlenbergApril 17–24, 2006**45%**39%
Strategic VisionApril 13, 2006**44%**42%
QuinnipiacApril 5, 2006**47%**37%
IssuesPA/Pew PollMarch 30, 200629%**35%**
RasmussenMarch 28, 2006**44%**41%
Strategic VisionMarch 15, 2006**44%****44%**
MuhlenbergMarch 4, 2006**46%**43%
RasmussenFebruary 21, 2006**46%**43%
QuinnipiacFebruary 15, 2006**48%**36%
Keystone PollFebruary 9, 2006**45%**42%
Strategic VisionJanuary 25, 200644%**46%**
RasmussenJanuary 19, 200643%**45%**
Strategic VisionDecember 21, 2005**45%**41%
QuinnipiacDecember 13, 2005**48%**35%
Strategic VisionNovember 16, 2005**45%**42%
RasmussenNovember 7, 2005**50%**36%
Strategic VisionOctober 19, 2005**46%**41%
Keystone PollSeptember 2005**53%**33%
Strategic VisionSeptember 12, 2005**48%**43%
Strategic VisionAugust 2, 2005**47%**41%
RasmussenJuly 20, 2005**47%**41%
Keystone PollJune 2005**42%**32%
Keystone PollMarch 2005**59%**29%

Debate

No.DateHostModeratorLinkDemocraticRepublicanKey:
Participant Absent Not invited Invited WithdrawnDemocratic Party (US)}}"Republican Party (US)}}"Ed RendellLynn Swann1
Oct. 4, 2006KDKA-TV
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
Point Park UniversityKen Rice[C-SPAN](https://www.c-span.org/program/public-affairs-event/pennsylvania-gubernatorial-debate/165550)

Results

Results by county

CountyEd Rendell
DemocraticLynn Swann
RepublicanMarginTotal votes cast#%#%#%Totals2,470,51760.36%1,622,13539.64%848,38220.72%4,092,652
Adams13,03443.28%17,08456.72%-4,050-13.44%30,118
Allegheny275,22759.92%184,06340.08%91,16419.84%459,290
Armstrong9,55241.27%13,59558.73%-4,403-17.46%23,147
Beaver35,51054.99%29,06945.01%6,4419.98%64,579
Bedford6,37238.29%10,27061.71%-3,898-23.42%16,642
Berks66,83757.16%50,09642.84%16,74114.32%116,933
Blair15,43539.85%23,29560.15%-7,860-20.30%54,809
Bradford8,48544.30%10,67055.70%-2,185-11.40%19,155
Bucks163,73970.11%69,79829.89%93,94140.21%233,537
Butler24,93639.24%38,61360.76%-13,677-21.52%63,549
Cambria31,85660.84%20,50639.16%11,35021.68%52,362
Cameron79344.50%98955.50%-196-11.00%1,782
Carbon10,63360.59%6,91739.41%3,17621.18%17,550
Centre23,41553.87%20,05146.13%3,3647.74%43,466
Chester112,96065.15%60,43734.85%52,52330.30%173,397
Clarion5,45142.07%7,50557.93%-2,054-15.86%12,956
Clearfield12,93850.21%12,83049.79%1080.42%25,768
Clinton5,46455.73%4,34144.27%1,12311.46%9,805
Columbia9,28150.55%9,07849.45%2031.10%18,359
Crawford11,69541.92%16,20258.08%-4,507-16.16%27,897
Cumberland32,73741.48%46,18958.52%-13,452-17.04%78,926
Dauphin39,71145.64%47,29454.36%-7,853-9.28%87,005
Delaware154,24973.93%54,04326.07%99,84647.86%208,652
Elk6,90760.56%4,49939.44%2,40821.12%11,406
Erie50,04258.12%36,05941.88%13,98316.24%86,101
Fayette22,60359.33%15,49240.67%7,11118.66%38,095
Forest92946.73%1,05953.27%-130-7.46%1,988
Franklin16,94539.42%26,04360.58%-9,098-21.16%42,988
Fulton1,67038.49%2,66961.51%-999-23.02%4,339
Greene7,05555.44%5,67044.56%1,38510.88%12,725
Huntingdon5,49040.39%8,10359.61%-2,613-19.22%13,593
Indiana12,95349.17%13,39050.83%-437-1.67%26,343
Jefferson5,40238.11%8,77461.89%-3,372-23.78%14,176
Juniata2,74835.49%4,99564.51%-2,247-29.02%7,743
Lackawanna56,96672.98%21,90527.02%35,87145.96%78,061
Lancaster62,93441.79%87,66858.21%-24,734-16.42%150,602
Lawrence17,55755.06%14,32944.94%3,22810.12%31,886
Lebanon16,81342.47%22,77557.53%-5,962-15.06%39,588
Lehigh59,33863.11%34,69236.89%24,64626.22%94,030
Luzerne64,62867.55%31,05132.45%33,57735.10%95,679
Lycoming14,77741.17%21,11658.83%-6,339-17.66%35,893
McKean5,04446.13%5,89053.87%-846-7.74%10,934
Mercer19,88852.17%18,23747.83%1,6514.34%38,125
Mifflin4,73038.23%7,64261.77%-2,912-23.54%12,372
Monroe21,43060.36%14,07139.64%7,35920.72%35,501
Montgomery211,65171.66%83,71828.34%127,93343.32%295,369
Montour2,76447.47%3,05952.53%-295-5.06%5,823
Northampton53,00763.80%30,08136.20%22,92627.60%83,088
Northumberland13,47050.62%13,14049.38%3301.24%26,610
Perry4,47730.93%9,99869.07%-5,521-38.14%14,475
Philadelphia383,33989.39%45,50210.61%337,83778.78%428,841
Pike7,39353.02%6,55146.98%8426.04%13,944
Potter2,03536.78%3,49863.22%-1,463-26.44%5,533
Schuylkill26,32755.76%20,88644.24%5,44111.52%47,213
Snyder4,07336.12%7,20363.88%-3,130-27.76%11,276
Somerset12,49945.41%15,02854.59%-2,529-14.18%27,527
Sullivan1,26449.78%1,27550.22%-11-0.44%2,539
Susquehanna8,23954.52%6,87445.48%1,3659.04%15,113
Tioga5,12641.02%7,37058.98%-2,244-17.96%12,496
Union5,00643.50%6,50356.50%-1,497-13.00%11,509
Venango7,90644.80%9,74255.20%-1,836-10.40%17,648
Warren7,27855.46%5,84644.54%1,43210.92%13,124
Washington38,42252.73%34,44047.27%3,9825.46%72,862
Wayne8,14351.61%7,63548.38%5083.23%15,778
Westmoreland60,14546.27%69,85453.73%-9,709-7.46%129,999
Wyoming5,51853.87%4,72646.13%7927.74%10,244
York55,27643.92%70,59256.08%-15,316-12.16%125,868

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

  • Cambria (largest municipality: Johnstown)
  • Clinton (Largest city: Lock Haven)
  • Clearfield (Largest city: DuBois)
  • Elk (Largest city: St. Marys)
  • Mercer (largest municipality: Hermitage)
  • Centre (largest municipality: State College)
  • Erie (largest municipality: Erie)
  • Monroe (largest borough: Stroudsburg)
  • Northumberland (largest borough: Sunbury)
  • Pike (largest municipality: Matamoras)
  • Susquehanna (largest municipality: Forest City)
  • Wayne (largest municipality: Honesdale)
  • Wyoming (largest municipality: Tunkhannock)
  • Warren (Largest city: Warren)

References

Sources

References

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