2006 Belarusian presidential election

Background

Domestic

Alexander Lukashenko became Belarus's first president in 1994. Two years later, a conflict with the Belarusian Parliament led to a referendum in 1996 that expanded presidential power. He then won reelection in 2001, officially securing 77.39% of the vote. In 2004, a referendum abolished term limits for the presidency, allowing him to run in 2006.

Lukashenko's second term saw a consolidation of power. In 2001, presidential defamation was criminalized. In 2002, the OSCE mission was expelled and a religious law restricted proselytizing by foreign missionaries. Journalist Veronika Cherkasova, who reported on alleged arms sales to Iraq, was found dead in 2004. In 2005, discrediting the Belarusian state also became a crime.

In 2003–2004, the European Humanities University and the Belarusian Humanities Lyceum were closed. In 2005, the independent pollster IISEPS was closed. Later that year, new laws increased penalties for unregistered NGOs and tightened control over their funding. From 2003 to 2005, 157 NGOs were closed. While the total number of NGOs remained at 2,248 in both 2003 and 2007, these closures affected civil society, particularly as only 10% of NGO focused on democracy promotion.

Alexander Lukashenko's second term was marked by economic growth, with average salaries increasing from $88.8 in 2001 to $218.0 in 2005. This put him on track to fulfill his promise of raising salaries to $250 by 2006. Pensions also rose during this period, from $37.7 to $93.7.

International

Belarusian relations with the West gradually worsened after Alexander Lukashenko's election as President in 1994, and significantly deteriorated following the 1996 referendum. This referendum expanded presidential powers and established a new Parliament that was not recognized by the EU or the USA. Additionally, the presidential elections of 2001 were deemed neither free nor fair by the OSCE.

The American invasion of Iraq further worsened relations, as Lukashenko supported that country. A top aide to Saddam Hussein was reportedly found in possession of a Belarusian passport, and American leadership repeatedly accused Belarus of supplying weapons to Iraq. In 2004, Congress passed an Act aimed at promoting democracy and civil society in Belarus. The following year, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice called Belarus an "outpost of tyranny" and later met with Belarusian opposition leaders.

The expansion of the EU led to a common border with Belarus and the adoption of the European Neighbourhood Policy. New EU member countries, mainly Poland and Lithuania, became active advocates for more pressure on Lukashenko's government. In 2004, the EU introduced sanctions against six individuals for inhibiting civil rights and awarded the Sakharov Prize to the Belarusian Association of Journalists in December. In 2005, Poland and Belarus had a diplomatic dispute, with Poland accusing Belarus of repressing its Polish minority and Lukashenko accusing Poland of attempting to stage a revolution.

The early 2000s saw the Orange Revolution in Ukraine and the Rose Revolution in Georgia. In 2002, Gene Sharp stated that such a revolution was "somewhat possible" in Belarus. In 2004, the Polish President declared that bringing democracy to Belarus was a European task, and former Czech President Vaclav Havel called Belarus "The Last Totalitarian Country in Europe" and urged democratization. Lukashenko claimed that the West was plotting a similar color revolution against him.

Belarus and Russia formed the Union State in 1999. While initially both sides sought closer cooperation, the relationship worsened, with failures to adopt a common currency, military, or even an anthem. In 2002, Lukashenko expelled Russian politician Boris Nemtsov from Belarus. In 2004, Russia and Belarus had a gas dispute, and in the same year, Lukashenko introduced a 75% quota for Belarusian music on radio. In 2005, Russia criticized Belarus for human rights abuses. Nevertheless, the threat of a revolution similar to Ukraine's led Russia to strongly back Lukashenko in the election, the conduct of which was announced by the Belarusian parliament just one day after a meeting between Putin and Lukashenko.

Electoral system

The President of the Republic of Belarus was elected for a five-year term directly by the people, based on universal, free, equal, and direct suffrage through secret ballot. Since 2004, there had been no term limits for the Presidency. To be eligible, a candidate had to be a natural-born citizen, at least 35 years old, and have permanently resided in Belarus for at least 10 years immediately preceding the election.

Presidential elections were conducted using a two-round system. A candidate won in the first round if he secured more than half of the votes cast. If no candidate achieved this, a second round was held between the two leading candidates. For the elections to be deemed valid, more than half of the citizens of the Republic of Belarus included in the voter list had to participate in the voting.

Elections were overseen by the Central Election Commission of Belarus (CEC). To be nominated, a candidate had to first submit a list of at least 100 individuals to form their initiative group. This group was responsible for collecting at least 100,000 signatures in support of the candidate. The CEC then verified these signatures for validity and, if successful, registered the candidate.

The House of Representatives of Belarus set the election date. According to the law, the election date must be declared no later than five months before the expiration of the current term, and the election itself must be conducted no later than two months prior to that. In the 2006 Presidential election, the date was declared nine months in advance and the election was held six months before the term ended.

The presidential election in 2006 followed this timeline:

Candidates

On 1–2 October 2005, Alaksandar Milinkievič was chosen as the unified candidate of the democratic opposition, receiving more votes than Anatoly Lebedko at the National Congress of Democratic Forces.

On 17 February 2006, the Central Election Commission approved the following list of candidates from the eight whose initiative groups were registered:

Former candidates

• Zianon Pazniak: withdrew on 26 January
• Valeri Frolov: withdrew on 1 February in favor of Kazulin
• Alexander Voitovich: withdrew on 9 January
• Sergei Skrebets: withdrew in late January, supported Kazulin

Campaign

Alexander Lukashenko

Alexander Lukashenko, the incumbent, based his campaign on highlighting the economic growth achieved during his tenure and the sense of social protection people experienced under his leadership. He pledged to reduce bureaucracy and foster entrepreneurship.

Regarding foreign policy, Lukashenko declared that establishing the Union State was a strategic objective, yet he remained open to political dialogue with all nations. He emphasized his commitment to Belarus's independence and sovereignty, explicitly stating he was not supported by the Kremlin.

His campaign benefited significantly from state-owned media, securing 95% of prime-time television coverage and 90% in state-owned newspapers.

Alaksandar Milinkievič

Alaksandar Milinkievič, a physicist by training, became involved in politics during the late Soviet Union, serving on the Grodno City Council. He was a key figure in Siamion Domash's 2001 campaign and, despite being Belarusian and Orthodox, was consistently accused by state media of being Polish and Catholic.

His platform centered on liberal economic policies and the promotion of democratic values. In foreign policy, he engaged with high-ranking European leaders, including meetings with then-President of the European Commission José Manuel Barroso and German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Concurrently, he advocated for a strategic partnership with Russia and openly rejected Belarus's accession to NATO.

Milinkievič did not believe he could officially win the election, stating his intention to "get people out into the street" and comparing his stance to that of the Polish Solidarity movement in 1980. He viewed the election as an opportunity for open campaigning, for instance, it marked the first time in five years that the opposition received any television airtime. He also described his mission as "God-given."

Sergei Gaidukevich

Sergei Gaidukevich, a military veteran and leader of the Liberal Democratic Party of Belarus, won a seat in parliament in the 2000 elections and had previously run in the 2001 presidential election.

He was the only candidate with whom Lukashenko was willing to shake hands. Gaidukevich did not actively campaign, and the signatures for his nomination were collected with state assistance. Regarding potential protests on Election Day, he stated that protests were for "losers," and he would emerge as a victor.

Alyaksandr Kazulin

Alyaksandr Kazulin, a former rector of Belarusian State University, faced criticism from Lukashenko in 2001 for students' poor voting records and was subsequently removed in 2003 on corruption charges.

Kazulin publicly criticized Lukashenko for authoritarianism, an inefficient economic system, and widespread corruption. In terms of foreign policy, he stated that Russia was Belarus's strategic ally and Europe its strategic partner. He cultivated more allies in Russia than in the West and accused Lukashenko of exploiting Russian "brotherly feelings."

His campaign was notably aggressive, openly attacking the high-ranking positions achieved by Lukashenko's sons. He called Lukashenko a "thug" and reportedly broke his portrait while in police custody.

Events

On 31 January, Milinkievič met with European leaders in Brussels, who warned Lukashenko to conduct free and fair elections.

On 8 February, Belarus accused Poland of espionage, a charge Poland rejected, stating it was part of Lukashenko's election campaign.

On 22 February, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs criticized the OSCE, claiming they had already predetermined not to declare the Belarusian election free and fair.

On 24 February, the State Department issued a warning against election violations.

On 26 February, Belarusian state media ran a story alleging that the KGB had discovered Gallup exit polls showing Milinkievič as the victor on 19 March, Baltic Gallup subsequently denied the authenticity of these polls.

On 1 March, the KGB head claimed that the opposition planned to seize government buildings and stage a false flag terrorist attack.

On 2 March, Kazulin was briefly arrested and beaten after attempting to enter the All-Belarusian People's Assembly meeting.

On 9 March, Vincuk Viačorka, a trusted associate of Milinkievič, was arrested and sentenced to 15 days.

On 16 March, the head of the KGB announced that the opposition was planning a coup, alleging, among other things, that they intended to poison Minsk's water supply. He threatened the death penalty for those involved in "terrorism." By this time, 60 people had already been jailed.

On the same day, Mikheil Saakashvili stated that the EU and the USA must ensure democracy in Belarus. The following day, seven Georgian MPs attempting to visit Belarus as electoral observers were denied entry.

On 17 March, the White House released a report accusing Lukashenko of "creating a repressive dictatorship on the doorstep of the European Union and NATO." In response, Lukashenko labeled George W. Bush "terrorist No. 1 on our planet."

Opinion polling

Initially, when no specific opposition candidates were named, Lukashenko was polled against a hypothetical opposition leader. The results of these IISEPI polls are as follows:

Despite its official closure in April 2005, IISEPI continued to conduct polls.

Results

Monitoring

The election, observed by 546 OSCE observers, "failed to meet OSCE commitments for democratic elections," according to their statement. The OSCE criticized early voting, through which 31% of eligible people cast their ballots, as well as limited access to result tabulation, the exclusion of opposition members from electoral commissions, and their sparse representation among observers.

In response, Central Election Commission of Belarus claimed that the alleged abuses were either unverified or conducted in accordance with Belarusian law, which they asserted met international standards.

Conversely, the 467-member delegation from the Commonwealth of Independent States monitored the election and found it to be open and transparent.

Electoral results

Official results, announced on 23 March, showed Alexander Lukashenko winning in a landslide.

Results by region

Reactions

Domestic

Main article: Jeans Revolution

Following the election, an organization with ties to the government released exit poll results claiming that Lukashenko secured over 80% of the vote. In contrast, Milinkievič's campaign office asserted that he received 25.6% of the vote, compared to Lukashenko's 47%.

Belarusian authorities vowed to crush unrest in the event of large-scale protests following the election. Lukashenko declared victory and the defeat of the "revolution," stating that while he was unwilling to jail Milinkievič and Kazulin, he did not rule out the possibility.

In protest of the election results, approximately 10,000 people gathered at October Square in Minsk. They waved the white-red-white flag of independent Belarus, the flag of Europe, and flags of other nations such as Ukraine, Poland, and Russia. Several hundred protesters remained at the square overnight, with thousands present each evening.

The opposition planned a significant "show of strength" for Saturday, 25 March, coinciding with the anniversary of the establishment of the Belarus Democratic Republic. However, police dispersed the protests early on Friday, arresting hundreds. On Saturday, 6,000 people gathered, but riot police blocked their access to the central square and arrested Kazulin., who was sentenced to five and a half years in prison in July.

According to the Czech News Agency, Jan Rybar, reporter of the Czech daily Mlada fronta Dnes, was attacked and beaten up at the opposition demonstration in Minsk. He said in his opinion he had been beaten up by agents of the Belarusian secret police KGB, but has no direct piece of evidence to prove it.

During the protests, Belarusian authorities also arrested Mariusz Maszkiewicz, the former Polish ambassador to Belarus, and Polish journalist Weronika Samolinska. They reported arresting over 500 people during the protests.

Belarusian state television claimed that two of its reporters were beaten by protesters, Belarusian Association of Journalists doubted the incident occurred, suggesting the reporters were at most hit with snowballs. Amidst the unrest, Lukashenko postponed his inauguration, eventually conducting it on 8 April in military uniform. He blamed the West for inciting the protests. He later claimed in November that his true vote count was over 90% and that he had falsified it down to 80% to appear more appealing to Europeans, but they did not appreciate his gesture.

Western countries

The report of the OSCE claimed that the election failed to meet commitments for democratic processes.

On 20 March, the State Department refused to accept the election results and called for a new vote. On 15 May, George W. Bush issued a proclamation barring high-ranking Belarusian officials from traveling to the USA. Later, on 16 June, he introduced financial sanctions against 10 individuals, including Lukashenko, for undermining democratic processes.

On 6 April, the European Parliament adopted a resolution condemning the "failed Presidential elections." This was followed by the Council of the European Union sanctioning 31 individuals, including Alexander Lukashenko, on 10 April. In October, Milinkievič was awarded the Sakharov Prize, the EU's top human rights award.

Czech President Vaclav Klaus decided not to congratulate the re-elected Belarusian President.

Russia

The CIS observation mission deemed the elections open and transparent. Russian President Vladimir Putin called Lukashenko the day after the elections to congratulate him. On 24 March, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov claimed that OSCE mission had played an instigatory role.

Pro-government media lauded the outcome as a defeat for "orange" political technologies. Meanwhile, the liberal opposition condemned Lukashenko's actions, and on 26 March, a protest they organized, involving about ten people, was dispersed.

Russia stated on 30 March that Belarus's gas prices were unacceptably lower than European ones. By 19 April, Belarus reportedly agreed to cede some control of Beltransgaz, the state natural gas monopoly. Russia had sought this control since the early 1990s, nearly securing a similar deal in April 2002 that ultimately had no follow-up. The formal agreement, signed on 18 May 2007, allowed Gazprom to acquire a 50% stake in the company by paying $2.5 billion from 2007 to 2010.

Notes

References

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