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2004 United States Senate election in South Carolina

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FieldValue
election_name2004 United States Senate election in South Carolina
countrySouth Carolina
typepresidential
ongoingno
previous_election1998 United States Senate election in South Carolina
previous_year1998
next_election2010 United States Senate election in South Carolina
next_year2010
election_dateNovember 2, 2004
image_sizex150px
image1Jim DeMint headshot.jpg
nominee1**Jim DeMint**
party1Republican Party (United States)
popular_vote1**857,167**
percentage1**53.67%**
image2Inez Tenenbaum (cropped).jpg
nominee2Inez Tenenbaum
party2Democratic Party (United States)
popular_vote2704,384
percentage244.10%
map_image2004 United States Senate election in South Carolina results map by county.svg
map_size230px
map_captionCounty results
titleU.S. Senator
before_electionFritz Hollings
before_partyDemocratic Party (United States)
after_electionJim DeMint
after_partyRepublican Party (United States)

DeMint:

Tenenbaum:
The **2004 United States Senate election in South Carolina ** was held on November 2, 2004. Longtime incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Fritz Hollings retired, and Republican U.S. Representative Jim DeMint won the open seat. DeMint was the first Republican to hold this Senate seat since 1879 and the first Republican ever to be popularly elected to this seat. Since DeMint took office in 2005, Republicans have held both of South Carolina’s Senate seats, which they had not done since Reconstruction.

As of , this is the last time the Democratic nominee for this Senate seat was white. This was also the last senate election in South Carolina to be won by single digits.

Democratic primary

South Carolina's status as a Republican stronghold led observers to speculate that Hollings retiring would lead to his seat being picked up by a Republican. Inez Tenenbaum, the South Carolina Superintendent of Education, would win the primary by a wide margin following the decision of many state Democrats to forgo a candidacy.

Candidates

Nominee

  • Inez Tenenbaum, South Carolina Superintendent of Education

Eliminated in primary

  • Ben Frasier, former congressional aide

Withdrew

  • Bob Coble, mayor of Columbia (endorsed Tenenbaum)

Declined to run

  • Jim Clyburn, U.S. Representative
  • Hayne Hipp, businessman
  • Fritz Hollings, incumbent U.S. Senator (retired)
  • Darla Moore, investor
  • Thomas L. Moore, state senator
  • Alex Sanders, former president of the College of Charleston; nominee for U.S. Senate in 2002
  • James E. Smith Jr., state representative
  • John Spratt, U.S. Representative

Results

FOR UNITED STATES SENATE (2004). www.fec.gov. p. 72. Retrieved October 24, 2013.}}

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

  • Jim DeMint, U.S. Representative

Defeated in primary

  • David Beasley, former governor
  • Charlie Condon, State Attorney General
  • Orly Benny Davis, businesswoman
  • Mark McBride, Mayor of Myrtle Beach
  • Thomas Ravenel, real estate executive and son of former U.S. Representative Arthur Ravenel Jr.

Campaign

The Senate election two years earlier in 2002 did not have a primary election because the South Carolina Republicans were more preoccupied with the gubernatorial contest, despite having the first open senate seat in 40 years. The retirement of Democratic Senator Fritz Hollings gave the Republicans an opportunity to pick up the seat and with no other interesting positions up for election in 2004, a crowded field developed in the Republican primary. Furthermore, the Republicans were motivated by having President Bush at the top of the ticket enabling them to ride his coattails to victory.

Former Governor David Beasley, from the Pee Dee, entered the race and quickly emerged as the frontrunner because of his support from the evangelical voters. However, during his term as governor from 1995 to 1999 he had greatly angered the electorate by proposing to remove the Confederate Naval Jack from the dome of the statehouse and by being against the adoption of a state lottery to provide for college scholarships. Both positions led to the loss of his re-election in 1998 and the issues continued to trouble him in the Senate race.

The battle for second place in the primary was between Upstate congressman, Jim DeMint, and Charleston developer Thomas Ravenel. DeMint was able to squeak out a second-place finish because Charlie Condon, a former Attorney General of South Carolina, split the Lowcountry vote with Ravenel thus providing DeMint the margin he needed. In addition, while many voters were attracted to the Ravenel campaign and felt that he had a future in politics, they believed that he should set his sights on a less high-profile office first before trying to become senator. Resigned to defeat, Ravenel endorsed DeMint in the runoff election.

In the runoff election on June 22, 2004, DeMint scored a surprising victory over Beasley. Ravenel's endorsement of DeMint proved crucial as the Lowcountry counties heavily went for the Representative from the Upstate. Also, Beasley had burnt too many bridges while governor and was unable to increase his share of the vote in the runoff.

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin
of errorJim
DeMintDavid
BeasleyThomas
RavenelCharlie
CondonMark
McBrideBob
PeelerUndecided
SurveyUSAJune 18–20, 2004499 (LV)± 4.5%**54%**44%2%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)June 10–14, 2004700 (LV)**46%**42%12%
SurveyUSAJune 12–14, 2004527 (LV)± 4.4%47%**48%**5%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)June 7, 200442%**48%**10%
Richard Quinn & Associates (R)June 9–10, 2004300 (LV)± 5.8%38%**47%**15%
SurveyUSAJune 4–6, 2004500 (LV)± 4.5%20%**38%**23%12%7%
SurveyUSAMay 22–24, 2004421 (LV)± 4.9%21%**43%**17%16%3%
Richard Quinn & Associates (R)May 11, 2004467 (LV)± 4.7%18%**40%**11%9%22%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)May 200433%**54%**10%
SurveyUSAApril 26–28, 2004427 (LV)± 4.9%27%**38%**19%16%
Richard Quinn & Associates (R)February 4–5, 2004716 (LV)± 3.8%13%**41%**9%15%2%20%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)January 2004550 (LV)± 3.4%16%**37%**10%19%2%16%
Richard Quinn & Associates (R)October 17–20, 2003± 3.8%8%**24%**8%16%44%
24%**44%**32%
22%**33%**45%
**44%**28%28%
Basswood Research (R)April 29, 2003500 (LV)± 4.4%19%4%**27%**4%46%

Results

Republican PrimaryCandidateVotes%
David Beasley107,84736.6%
Jim DeMint77,56726.3%
Thomas Ravenel73,16724.8%
Charlie Condon27,6949.4%
Mark McBride6,4792.2%
Orly Benny Davis1,9150.7%
Republican Primary RunoffCandidateVotes%±%
Jim DeMint154,64459.2%+32.9%
David Beasley106,48040.8%+4.2%

General election

Candidates

Major

  • Jim DeMint (R), U.S. Representative
  • Inez Tenenbaum (D), South Carolina Superintendent of Education

Minor

  • Tee Ferguson (United Citizens)
  • Efia Nwangaza (Green)
  • Rebekah E. Sutherland (Libertarian)
  • Patrick Tyndall (Constitution)

DeMint entered the general election campaign severely weakened from the primary fight, having spent most of his campaign funds. He stressed to the voters that he would follow conservative principles and provide an important Republican vote in the closely divided Senate. Democrats fared poorly in statewide elections in South Carolina, so Tenenbaum tried to make the race about issues rather than party identification.

Tenenbaum attacked DeMint's support of the FairTax proposal because it would increase the sales tax by 23%. The election victory by DeMint merely cemented South Carolina's shift to the Republican column as the best candidate the Democrats could offer was soundly defeated by the typical 10-point margin.

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 1, 2004

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin
of errorJim
DeMint (R)Inez
Tenenbaum (D)Undecided
SurveyUSAOctober 29–31, 2004635 (LV)± 4%**52%**41%7%
McLaughlin & AssociatesOctober 26–28, 2004400 (LV)± 4.9%**48%**40%12%
SurveyUSAOctober 22–24, 2004564 (LV)± 4.2%**52%**39%9%
Mason-DixonOctober 19–20, 2004625 (LV)± 4%**47%**43%10%
SurveyUSAOctober 10–12, 2004563 (LV)± 4.2%**46%**43%11%
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 6, 2004500 (LV)± 4.5%**49%**43%8%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)September 29–30, 2004400 (LV)± 4.9%**46%**36%18%
Mason-DixonSeptember 27–29, 2004625 (RV)± 4%**50%**38%12%
Global Strategy Group (D)September 27–29, 2004500 (LV)± 4.4%43%**46%**11%
SurveyUSASeptember 19–21, 2004684 (LV)± 3.8%**51%**39%10%
Global Strategy Group (D)September 7–9, 2004600 (LV)± 4%**44%**41%15%
SurveyUSAAugust 16–18, 2004727 (LV)± 3.7%**52%**39%9%
SurveyUSAJuly 10–12, 2004702 (LV)± 3.8%**48%**41%11%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)June 28–29, 2004600 (LV)± 4%**47%**41%12%
Hickman Research (D)March 14–18, 2004700 (LV)± 3.7%33%**48%**19%
Hickman Research (D)Jul 28–Aug 3, 2003628 (LV)± 3.9%33%**48%**19%
DSCC (D)May 2003± %33%**45%**22%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin
of errorDavid
Beasley (R)Inez
Tenenbaum (D)Undecided
Hickman Research (D)March 14–18, 2004700 (LV)± 3.7%41%**46%**13%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)February 2004500 (LV)± 4.5%**48%**32%20%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin
of errorCharlie
Condon (R)Inez
Tenenbaum (D)Undecided
Hickman Research (D)March 14–18, 2004700 (LV)± 3.7%40%**47%**13%
Hickman Research (D)Jul 28–Aug 3, 2003628 (LV)± 3.9%36%**48%**16%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin
of errorThomas
Ravenel (R)Inez
Tenenbaum (D)Undecided
Hickman Research (D)Jul 28–Aug 3, 2003628 (LV)± 3.9%29%**49%**22%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin
of errorJim
DeMint (R)Fritz
Hollings (D)Undecided
DSCC (D)May 2003± %38%**43%**19%

Results

|- |

|-

|-

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

  • Abbeville (Largest city: Abbeville)
  • Georgetown (Largest city: Murrells Inlet)
  • Lancaster (Largest city: Lancaster)
  • Union (Largest city: Union)
  • Barnwell (Largest city: Barnwell)
  • Berkeley (Largest city: Goose Creek)
  • Cherokee (Largest city: Gaffney)
  • Dorchester (Largest city: North Charleston)
  • Edgefield (Largest city: Edgefield)
  • Florence (Largest city: Florence)
  • Greenwood (Largest city: Greenwood)
  • Kershaw (Largest city: Cmaden)
  • Laurens (Largest city: Laurens)
  • Newberry (Largest city: Newberry)
  • Saluda (Largest city: Saluda)

References

References

  1. "Hollings Retirement Could Hurt Democrats".
  2. "Columbia Mayor Bob Coble drops out of Senate race".
  3. (2003-05-02). "Corzine Looks For Millionaires".
  4. (2003-06-06). "Coalition of The Willing?".
  5. (2003-05-20). "Democrats Brace for Possible Hollings Exit".
  6. "Who Will Replace Hollings?".
  7. (July 2022.)
  8. (January 7, 2003). "MCBRIDE ON CAMPAIGN TRAIL".
  9. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  10. [https://web.archive.org/web/20050528042622/http://surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/SC040621gopsenrunoff.pdf SurveyUSA]
  11. [https://rollcall.com/2004/06/15/demint-gets-lift-from-toomey-rsc/ Public Opinion Strategies (R)]
  12. [https://web.archive.org/web/20040619182832/http://www.surveyusa.com/currentelectionpolls.html SurveyUSA]
  13. [https://www.newspapers.com/clip/109338971/the-greenville-news/ Richard Quinn & Associates (R)]
  14. [https://www.newspapers.com/clip/109338998/the-greenville-news/ p. 2]
  15. [https://web.archive.org/web/20050520172044/http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/SC040607gopsenprimary.pdf SurveyUSA]
  16. [https://web.archive.org/web/20040529050331/http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/SC040525gopsenprimary.pdf SurveyUSA]
  17. [https://www.newspapers.com/clip/109338811/the-charlotte-observer/ Richard Quinn & Associates (R)]
  18. [https://www.newspapers.com/clip/109338645/the-greenville-news/ SurveyUSA]
  19. [https://www.newspapers.com/clip/109338668/the-greenville-news/ p. 2]
  20. [https://www.newspapers.com/clip/109338462/the-greenville-news/ Richard Quinn & Associates (R)]
  21. [https://www.newspapers.com/clip/109338462/the-greenville-news/ Public Opinion Strategies (R)]
  22. [https://www.newspapers.com/clip/109334859/sun-news/ Richard Quinn & Associates (R)]
  23. {{usurped
  24. [https://rollcall.com/2003/05/07/south-carolina-condons-poll-shows-him-ahead-of-demint/ Basswood Research (R)]
  25. "The Final Predictions".
  26. [https://web.archive.org/web/20050312150244/http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/SC041101pressen.pdf SurveyUSA]
  27. [https://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/sc_polls.html McLaughlin & Associates]
  28. [https://web.archive.org/web/20041029182343/http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/SC041025pressen.pdf SurveyUSA]
  29. [https://www.newspapers.com/clip/109338010/the-charlotte-observer/ Mason-Dixon]
  30. [https://web.archive.org/web/20041019112920/http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/SC041013pressen.pdf SurveyUSA]
  31. [https://web.archive.org/web/20041013010326/http://www.rasmussenreports.com/South%20Carolina_Senate_Fall%202004.htm Rasmussen Reports]
  32. [https://www.newspapers.com/clip/109337904/the-charlotte-observer/ McLaughlin & Associates (R)]
  33. [https://www.newspapers.com/clip/109337631/the-charlotte-observer/ Mason-Dixon]
  34. [https://web.archive.org/web/20040930232901/http://www.inez2004.com/portal/index.php?module=article&view=207 Global Strategy Group (D)]
  35. [https://web.archive.org/web/20040924191722/http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/SC040922pressen.pdf SurveyUSA]
  36. [https://web.archive.org/web/20040930235240/http://www.inez2004.com/portal/files/phatfile/SC%20poll%20memo.pdf Global Strategy Group (D)]
  37. [https://web.archive.org/web/20041013183622/http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/SC040819pressen.pdf SurveyUSA]
  38. [https://web.archive.org/web/20040818060059/http://www.surveyusa.com/currentelectionpolls.html SurveyUSA]
  39. [https://www.newspapers.com/clip/109336845/the-charlotte-observer/ Public Opinion Strategies (R)]
  40. [https://web.archive.org/web/20040625202734/http://www.inez2004.com/portal/index.php?module=article&view=41 Hickman Research (D)]
  41. [https://www.newspapers.com/clip/109334051/the-charlotte-observer/ Hickman Research (D)]
  42. [https://rollcall.com/2003/06/06/coalition-of-the-willing/ DSCC (D)]
  43. [https://web.archive.org/web/20040402064532/http://www.inez2004.com/portal/ Hickman Research (D)]
  44. [https://www.newspapers.com/clip/109336449/the-greenville-news/ McLaughlin & Associates (R)]
  45. [https://www.newspapers.com/clip/109336420/the-greenville-news/ p. 2]
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