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2004 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania

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2004 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania

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FieldValue
election_name2004 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania
countryPennsylvania
typepresidential
ongoingno
previous_election1998 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania
previous_year1998
next_election2010 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania
next_year2010
election_dateNovember 2, 2004
image_sizex150px
image1Arlen Specter, official Senate photo portrait.jpg
nominee1**Arlen Specter**
party1Republican Party (United States)
popular_vote1**2,925,080**
percentage1**52.62%**
image2Joe Hoeffel portrait.jpg
nominee2Joe Hoeffel
party2Democratic Party (United States)
popular_vote22,334,126
percentage241.99%
map_image2004 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania results map by county.svg
map_size260px
map_captionCounty results
**Specter:**
**Hoeffel:**
titleU.S. Senator
before_electionArlen Specter
before_partyRepublican Party (United States)
after_electionArlen Specter
after_partyRepublican Party (United States)

Specter:
Hoeffel:
The 2004 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania was held on November 2, 2004. Incumbent Republican Senator Arlen Specter won re-election to a fifth term. As of , this is the last time a Republican statewide candidate won Montgomery and Delaware Counties and won more than 25% of the vote in Philadelphia. Specter later lost renomination in 2010 as a Democrat, having joined the party in April 2009. Specter’s party switch marked the first time since 1947 that Democrats held both of Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate seats.

Democratic primary

Campaign

Democrats had difficulty recruiting top tier candidates against the popular Specter. Among the Democrats to decline to run for the nomination were Treasurer (and former Republican) Barbara Hafer, Public Utilities Commissioner John Hanger, real estate mogul Howard Hanna, State Representative (and also former Republican) John Lawless, and State Senator (and future Congresswoman) Allyson Schwartz.

Congressman Hoeffel ended up running unopposed for the Democratic nomination. Software businessman Charlie Crystle was considered a strong possible candidate, but he dropped out before the election.

Results

Republican primary

Pat Toomey

Campaign

Specter faced a primary challenge from Representative Pat Toomey. Despite the state Republican Party's strong history of embracing a moderate philosophy, the influence of conservatism among rank-and-file members had been steadily growing for decades; because of his liberal social views, Specter was often considered to be a "Republican in Name Only" by the right. Although Specter had a huge fundraising advantage, Toomey was aided by $2 million of advertising from the Club for Growth, a conservative political action committee that focuses on fiscal issues and targets moderate Republican incumbents. Toomey criticized Specter as a spendthrift on economic policy and as out of touch with his own party on social issues. Although Toomey had difficulty with name recognition early in the campaign, he built huge momentum over the final weeks preceding the primary, and Specter appeared to have transitioned from having a comfortable lead to being behind his challenger.

Specter received a huge boost from the vocal support of President George W. Bush; most of the state's Republican establishment also closed ranks behind Specter. This included Pennsylvania's other U.S. Senator, Rick Santorum, who was noted for his social conservative views. Many Republicans at the state and national level feared that if Toomey beat Specter, he wouldn't be able to defend the seat against his Democratic opponent.

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin
of errorArlen
SpecterPat
ToomeyUndecided
SurveyUSAApril 23–25, 2004478 (LV)± 4.6%**48%****48%**4%
Quinnipiac UniversityApril 20–24, 2004617 (LV)± 4%**48%**42%10%
the polling company, inc. (R)April 22–23, 2004500 (LV)± 4.5%**46%**39%15%
Franklin & Marshall CollegeApril 13–20, 2004401 (RV)± 4.8%**50%**26%24%
126 (LV)± 8.7%**46%**40%14%
SurveyUSAApril 17–19, 2004479 (LV)± 4.6%**50%**44%6%
Quinnipiac UniversityApril 12–18, 2004431 (LV)± 4.7%**49%**44%7%
SurveyUSAApril 3–5, 2004490 (LV)± 4.5%**46%**40%14%
Quinnipiac UniversityMar 30–Apr 5, 2004615 (LV)± 4%**52%**37%11%
Franklin & Marshall CollegeMarch 25–29, 2004258 (RV)± 6%**50%**28%22%
193 (LV)± 7%**46%**33%21%
SurveyUSAMarch 13–15, 2004399 (LV)± 5%**47%**38%15%
the polling company, inc. (R)March 9–10, 2004500 (LV)± 4.5%**47%**37%16%
Franklin & Marshall CollegeFebruary 19–22, 2004176 (RV)± 7.3%**55%**17%28%
the polling company, inc. (R)January 2004500 (LV)± 4.5%**51%**28%21%
Muhlenberg CollegeNov 23–Dec 8, 2003193 (V)± 7%**52%**25%23%
Franklin & Marshall CollegeOct 27–Nov 16, 2003257 (RV)± 6%**49%**18%33%

Results

Results by county

| | | | ]]

:Source: PA Department of State - 2004 General Primary

General election

Candidates

Major

  • Joe Hoeffel (D), U.S. Representative
  • Arlen Specter (R), incumbent U.S. Senator

Minor

  • Jim Clymer (C)
  • Betsy Summers (L)

Campaign

For Democrats, hope of winning the election centered on Toomey's defeat of Specter. However, after the challenge from the right failed, enthusiasm from the party establishment waned and Hoeffel had difficulty matching the name recognition and fundraising power of his opponent Despite contempt from conservatives, Specter enjoyed high levels of support from independent voters and, as in previous elections, a surprisingly large crossover from Democratic voters. Even in the areas in which Toomey performed best in the Republican primary (mainly the state's conservative, rural center), Specter performed well. Except for his large margin of victory in almost uniformly Democratic Philadelphia, Hoeffel was crushed at the polls; his only other wins came by close margins in three metro Pittsburgh counties; although President Bush proved to be unpopular in the state, voters were not willing to abandon Specter over party affiliation. Incidentally, Toomey was elected to the seat in 2010, after Specter switched to the Democratic Party in 2009 and subsequently lost renomination to U.S. Congressman and former Navy Admiral Joe Sestak.

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 1, 2004

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin
of errorArlen
Specter (R)Joel
Hoeffel (D)Jim
Clymer (C)Betsy
Summers (L)Undecided
SurveyUSAOct 31–Nov 1, 2004650 (LV)± 3.9%**53%**35%8%4%
Strategic Vision (R)October 29–31, 2004801 (LV)± 3%**55%**33%4%8%
Quinnipiac UniversityOctober 27–31, 20041,022 (LV)± 3.1%**53%**33%7%7%
Zogby InternationalOctober 27–30, 2004601 (LV)± 4.1%**54%**31%15%
Zogby InternationalOctober 26–29, 2004602 (LV)± 4.1%**57%**28%15%
Zogby InternationalOctober 25–28, 2004603 (LV)± 4.1%**53%**30%17%
Strategic Vision (R)October 25–27, 2004801 (LV)± 3%**55%**35%4%6%
Zogby InternationalOctober 24–27, 2004602 (LV)± 4.1%**55%**29%16%
Temple UniversityOctober 22–27, 20041,488 (RV)± 2.6%**51%**29%5%3%12%
Zogby InternationalOctober 23–26, 2004602 (LV)± 4.1%**54%**33%13%
Quinnipiac UniversityOctober 22–26, 20041,340 (RV)± 2.7%**52%**29%6%13%
**54%**30%16%
909 (LV)± 3.3%**55%**33%7%5%
**60%**34%6%
SurveyUSAOctober 23–25, 2004797 (LV)± 3.5%**51%**38%6%5%
Zogby InternationalOctober 22–25, 2004602 (LV)± 4.1%**53%**35%12%
Zogby InternationalOctober 21–24, 2004603 (LV)± 4.1%**48%**38%14%
Franklin & Marshall CollegeOctober 19–23, 2003622 (RV)± 3.9%**52%**29%4%2%13%
376 (LV)± 5.1%**52%**31%17%
Mason-DixonOctober 19–21, 2004800 (LV)± 3.5%**50%**32%7%11%
Quinnipiac UniversityOctober 16–20, 20041,185 (RV)± 2.9%**49%**33%5%13%
**52%**34%14%
841 (LV)± 3.4%**51%**36%6%7%
**55%**37%8%
Strategic Vision (R)October 17–19, 2004801 (LV)± 3%**54%**35%4%7%
SurveyUSAOctober 15–17, 2004608 (LV)± 4.1%**48%**41%6%5%
Quinnipiac UniversityOctober 9–11, 20041,980 (RV)± 2.2%**51%**33%16%
1,343 (LV)± 2.7%**55%**36%9%
Strategic Vision (R)October 9–11, 2004801 (LV)± 3%**52%**33%3%12%
SurveyUSAOctober 3–5, 2004767 (LV)± 3.6%**54%**35%11%
Franklin & Marshall CollegeSep 30–Oct 4, 2003594 (RV)± 4%**46%**32%6%16%
Strategic Vision (R)September 27–29, 2004801 (LV)± 3%**53%**33%3%11%
Mason-DixonSeptember 27–28, 2004625 (RV)± 4%**53%**31%16%
Quinnipiac UniversitySeptember 22–26, 20041,125 (RV)± 2.9%**52%**33%15%
726 (LV)± 3.6%**56%**37%7%
Strategic Vision (R)September 13–15, 2004801 (LV)± 3%**52%**33%4%11%
Franklin & Marshall CollegeSeptember 8–15, 2003491 (RV)± 4.4%**51%**25%5%19%
Quinnipiac UniversitySeptember 11–14, 20041,205 (RV)± 2.8%**51%**33%16%
792 (LV)± 3.5%**52%**37%11%
SurveyUSASeptember 7–9, 2004684 (LV)± 3.8%**51%**33%16%
Strategic Vision (R)August 26–28, 2004801 (LV)± 3%**51%**31%4%14%
Pew ResearchAugust 13–21, 20041,006 (RV)± 3%**54%**36%10%
861 (LV)± 4%**56%**36%8%
Strategic Vision (R)August 16–18, 2004801 (LV)± 3%**49%**32%3%16%
Quinnipiac UniversityAugust 11–16, 20041,430 (RV)± 2.6%**48%**33%19%
Franklin & Marshall CollegeAugust 2–15, 2003660 (RV)± 3.8%**53%**26%2%19%
SurveyUSAJul 31–Aug 2, 2004740 (LV)± 3.7%**49%**34%17%
Quinnipiac UniversityJuly 6–11, 20041,577 (RV)± 2.5%**51%**36%13%
Quinnipiac UniversityJune 21–22, 2004839 (RV)± 3.4%**50%**35%15%
Neighborhood Research (C)June 7–16, 2004631 (LV)± 3.9%**52%**23%2%23%
SurveyUSAJune 7–9, 2004679 (LV)± 3.8%**58%**33%9%
Quinnipiac UniversityMay 24–25, 2004701 (RV)± 3.7%**49%**37%14%
Quinnipiac UniversityMarch 9–15, 20041,022 (RV)± 3.1%**45%**29%26%
Quinnipiac UniversityFebruary 10–16, 20041,356 (RV)± 2.7%**50%**31%19%
Quinnipiac UniversityDecember 11–14, 20031,092 (RV)± 3%**50%**32%18%
Franklin & Marshall CollegeOct 27–Nov 16, 2003593 (RV)± 4%**47%**25%28%
Quinnipiac UniversityOctober 9–13, 20031,116 (RV)± 2.9%**50%**33%17%
Quinnipiac UniversityJul 30–Aug 4, 20031,037 (RV)± 3%**53%**29%18%
DSCC (D)June 10–12, 2003500 (LV)± 4.4%**53%**26%21%

Results

:Source: Election Statistics - Office of the Clerk of the House of Representatives

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

  • Alleghany (largest city: Pittsburgh)
  • Beaver (largest city: Beaver)
  • Fayette (largest borough: Uniontown)

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

  • Somerset (largest city: Somerset)

Notes

References

References

  1. (2003). "Democratic Short List '04". The Publius Group.
  2. Neri, Al. (August 2003). "District historically Republican". [[The Insider (newsletter).
  3. (2006). "Pennsylvania Elections: Statewide Contests from 1950-2004".
  4. (2006). "Pennsylvania Elections: Statewide Contests from 1950-2004".
  5. [https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna4847842 Sen. Specter ekes out narrow win in Pa. primary - Politics - nbcnews.com]
  6. [https://web.archive.org/web/20040919204854/http://surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/PA040426gopsenprimary.pdf SurveyUSA]
  7. [https://poll.qu.edu/Poll-Release-Legacy?releaseid=305 Quinnipiac University]
  8. [https://www.nationalreview.com/2004/04/toomeys-chance-nro-primary-document/ the polling company, inc. (R)]
  9. [https://web.archive.org/web/20120426113754/https://edisk.fandm.edu/FLI/keystone/pdf/keyapr04_1.pdf Franklin & Marshall College]
  10. [https://www.newspapers.com/clip/109360742/pittsburgh-post-gazette/ SurveyUSA]
  11. [https://poll.qu.edu/Poll-Release-Legacy?releaseid=302 Quinnipiac University]
  12. [https://web.archive.org/web/20040414044848/http://www.surveyusa.com:80/currentelectionpolls.html SurveyUSA]
  13. [https://poll.qu.edu/Poll-Release-Legacy?releaseid=301 Quinnipiac University]
  14. [https://web.archive.org/web/20120503054246/https://edisk.fandm.edu/FLI/keystone/pdf/keymar04_1.pdf Franklin & Marshall College]
  15. [https://web.archive.org/web/20040427095806/http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/PA040316gopsenprimary.pdf SurveyUSA]
  16. [https://www.newspapers.com/clip/109356110/the-morning-call/ the polling company, inc. (R)]
  17. [https://web.archive.org/web/20120509154217/https://edisk.fandm.edu/FLI/keystone/pdf/keyfeb04_1.pdf Franklin & Marshall College]
  18. [https://www.newspapers.com/clip/109353846/the-morning-call/ Muhlenberg College]
  19. [https://www.newspapers.com/clip/109353994/the-morning-call/ p. 2]
  20. [https://web.archive.org/web/20120509153127/https://edisk.fandm.edu/FLI/keystone/pdf/keynov03_2.pdf Franklin & Marshall College]
  21. "Pennsylvania Senate 2004, Crystal Ball, U.Va.".
  22. "Hoeffel trails Specter by large margin in Senate race - News".
  23. "The Final Predictions".
  24. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  25. [https://web.archive.org/web/20041102141111/https://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/PA041101pressen.pdf SurveyUSA]
  26. [https://web.archive.org/web/20041103065957/http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/pennsylvania.htm Strategic Vision (R)]
  27. [https://poll.qu.edu/Poll-Release-Legacy?releaseid=492 Quinnipiac University]
  28. [https://web.archive.org/web/20041205033905/http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=918 Zogby International]
  29. [https://web.archive.org/web/20041206223944/http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=916 Zogby International]
  30. [https://web.archive.org/web/20041208094601/http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=913 Zogby International]
  31. [https://web.archive.org/web/20041206222535/http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=910 Zogby International]
  32. [https://www.newspapers.com/clip/109397548/the-philadelphia-inquirer/ Temple University]
  33. [https://web.archive.org/web/20041209102505/http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=908 Zogby International]
  34. [https://poll.qu.edu/Poll-Release-Legacy?releaseid=489 Quinnipiac University]
  35. [https://web.archive.org/web/20041027161109/http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/PA041026pressen.pdf SurveyUSA]
  36. [https://web.archive.org/web/20041205095805/http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=906 Zogby International]
  37. [https://web.archive.org/web/20041206215802/http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=904 Zogby International]
  38. [https://web.archive.org/web/20120515181618/https://edisk.fandm.edu/FLI/keystone/pdf/keyoct04_2.pdf Franklin & Marshall College]
  39. [https://web.archive.org/web/20060830000637/http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/04299/401277.stm Mason-Dixon]
  40. [https://poll.qu.edu/Poll-Release-Legacy?releaseid=486 Quinnipiac University]
  41. [https://web.archive.org/web/20041022020150/http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/PA041018pressen.pdf SurveyUSA]
  42. [https://poll.qu.edu/Poll-Release-Legacy?releaseid=480 Quinnipiac University]
  43. [https://web.archive.org/web/20041108174733/http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/PA041006pressen891.pdf SurveyUSA]
  44. [https://web.archive.org/web/20120515175532/https://edisk.fandm.edu/FLI/keystone/pdf/keyoct04_1.pdf Franklin & Marshall College]
  45. [https://web.archive.org/web/20080328012416/http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/04276/389309.stm Mason-Dixon]
  46. [https://poll.qu.edu/Poll-Release-Legacy?releaseid=406 Quinnipiac University]
  47. [https://web.archive.org/web/20120509155407/https://edisk.fandm.edu/FLI/keystone/pdf/keysep04_2.pdf Franklin & Marshall College]
  48. [https://poll.qu.edu/Poll-Release-Legacy?releaseid=400 Quinnipiac University]
  49. [https://web.archive.org/web/20041108174723/http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/PA040910pressen.pdf SurveyUSA]
  50. [https://web.archive.org/web/20040828003011/http://www.issuespa.net/articles/10061/ Pew Research]
  51. [https://poll.qu.edu/Poll-Release-Legacy?releaseid=314 Quinnipiac University]
  52. [https://web.archive.org/web/20120503054411/https://edisk.fandm.edu/FLI/keystone/pdf/keyaug04_1.pdf Franklin & Marshall College]
  53. [https://web.archive.org/web/20041108174726/http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/PA040803pressen.pdf SurveyUSA]
  54. [https://poll.qu.edu/Poll-Release-Legacy?releaseid=309 Quinnipiac University]
  55. [https://poll.qu.edu/Poll-Release-Legacy?releaseid=307 Quinnipiac University]
  56. [https://www.newspapers.com/clip/109385097/sunday-news/ Neighborhood Research (C)]
  57. [https://web.archive.org/web/20040713015803/http://www.surveyusa.com/currentelectionpolls.html SurveyUSA]
  58. [https://poll.qu.edu/Poll-Release-Legacy?releaseid=306 Quinnipiac University]
  59. [https://poll.qu.edu/Poll-Release-Legacy?releaseid=300 Quinnipiac University]
  60. [https://poll.qu.edu/Poll-Release-Legacy?releaseid=297 Quinnipiac University]
  61. [https://poll.qu.edu/Poll-Release-Legacy?releaseid=380 Quinnipiac University]
  62. [https://poll.qu.edu/Poll-Release-Legacy?releaseid=377 Quinnipiac University]
  63. [https://poll.qu.edu/Poll-Release-Legacy?releaseid=376 Quinnipiac University]
  64. [https://www.newspapers.com/clip/109352213/the-morning-call/ DSCC (D)]
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