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2004 United States Senate election in Oklahoma

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FieldValue
election_name2004 United States Senate election in Oklahoma
countryOklahoma
flag_year1988
typepresidential
ongoingno
previous_election1998 United States Senate election in Oklahoma
previous_year1998
next_election2010 United States Senate election in Oklahoma
next_year2010
election_dateNovember 2, 2004
image_size125x136px
image1Tom Coburn official portrait 112th Congress.jpg
nominee1**Tom Coburn**
party1Republican Party (United States)
popular_vote1**763,433**
percentage1**52.77%**
image2BradCarson OfficialPortrait.jpg
nominee2Brad Carson
party2Democratic Party (United States)
popular_vote2596,750
percentage241.24%
image3[[File:No image.svgx120px]]
nominee3Sheila Bilyeu
party3Independent
popular_vote386,663
percentage35.99%
map_image2004 United States Senate election in Oklahoma results map by county.svg
map_captionCounty results
**Coburn:**
**Carson:**
titleU.S. Senator
before_electionDon Nickles
before_partyRepublican Party (United States)
after_electionTom Coburn
after_partyRepublican Party (United States)

Coburn:
Carson:
The 2004 United States Senate election in Oklahoma took place on November 2, 2004. The election was concurrent with elections to the United States House of Representatives and the presidential election. Incumbent Senator Don Nickles decided to retire instead of seeking a fifth term. Fellow Republican Tom Coburn won the open seat.

Democratic primary

Candidates

  • Brad Carson, U.S. Representative
  • Carroll Fisher, Oklahoma Insurance Commissioner
  • Jim Rogers, perennial candidate
  • Monte E. Johnson, attorney
  • W. B. G. Woodson

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin
of errorBrad
CarsonCarroll
FisherJim
RogersMonte
JohnsonW. B. G.
WoodsonUndecided/
Other
SurveyUSAJune 25–27, 2004563 (LV)± 4.2%**61%**15%6%4%1%13%
Wilson Research StrategiesMay 20–21, 2004300 (RV)± 5.7%**45%**7%3%45%

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

  • Tom Coburn, former U.S. Representative
  • Kirk Humphreys, former Mayor of Oklahoma City
  • Bob Anthony, Oklahoma Corporation Commissioner
  • Jay Richard Hunt, activist

Campaign

Humphreys, the former Mayor of Oklahoma City, ran for the United States Senate with institutional conservative support, namely from Senators Don Nickles and Jim Inhofe, as well as former Congressman J. C. Watts. However, Coburn received support from the Club for Growth and conservative activists within Oklahoma. Humphreys noted, "[Coburn is] kind of a cult hero in the conservative portion of our party, not just in Oklahoma. You can't get right of the guy." Much of Coburn's celebrity within the Republican Party came from his tenure in Congress, where he battled House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who he argued was moving the party to the center of the political spectrum due to their excessive federal spending. Coburn's maverick nature culminated itself in 2000 when he backed conservative activist Alan Keyes for President rather than George W. Bush or John McCain.

Ultimately, Coburn triumphed over Humphreys, Anthony, and Hunt in the primary, winning every county in Oklahoma except for tiny Harmon County.

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin
of errorTom
CoburnKirk
HumphreysBob
AnthonyJay Richard
HuntLinda
MurphyUndecided/
Other
SurveyUSAJuly 23–25, 2004517 (LV)± 4.4%**54%**25%13%8%
SurveyUSAJuly 16–18, 2004436 (LV)± 4.8%**46%**32%12%10%
Club for Growth (R)July 11–12, 2004500 (LV)± 4.4%**51%**22%8%19%
Consumer LogicJuly 8–12, 2004291 (RV)± 5.9%**37%**34%7%1%21%
SurveyUSAJune 25–27, 2004408 (LV)± 5%**38%**34%16%12%
CMA Strategies (R)June 6–8, 2004400 (LV)± 5%34%**36%**10%20%
Wilson Research StrategiesMay 20–21, 2004300 (RV)± 5.7%**21%****21%**11%5%42%
Consumer LogicMar 26–Apr 5, 2004± 5.9%**34%**22%12%32%

Results

General election

Candidates

  • Sheila Bilyeu (I), perennial candidate
  • Brad Carson (D), United States Congressman from Oklahoma's 2nd congressional district
  • Tom Coburn (R), former United States Congressman from Oklahoma's 2nd congressional district

Campaign

Carson and Coburn engaged each other head-on in one of the year's most brutal Senate contests. Coburn and the National Republican Senatorial Committee attacked Carson for being too liberal for Oklahoma and for being a vote in lockstep with John Kerry, Hillary Clinton, and Ted Kennedy. To drive the point home, one television advertisement aired by the Coburn campaign accused Carson of being "dangerously liberal" and not supporting the war on terrorism. Coburn was aided in this effort by the fact that the Kerry campaign did not contest the state of Oklahoma and that incumbent President George W. Bush was expected to win Oklahoma comfortably. This was compounded by the fact that Vice-President Dick Cheney campaigned for Coburn and appeared in several television advertisements for him. Carson countered by emphasizing his Stilwell roots and his moderation, specifically, bringing attention to the fact that he fought for greater governmental oversight of nursing home care for the elderly. Carson responded to the attacks against him by countering that his opponent had committed Medicaid fraud years prior, in an event that reportedly left a woman sterilized without her consent. Ultimately, however, Carson was not able to overcome Oklahoma's conservative nature and Senator Kerry's abysmal performance in Oklahoma, and he was defeated by Coburn by 11.5%. As of 2022, the result remains the closest the Democrats have come to winning a Senate election in Oklahoma since David Boren won a landslide reelection victory in 1990.

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 1, 2004

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin
of errorTom
Coburn (R)Brad
Carson (D)Sheila
Bilyeu (I)Undecided/
Other
SurveyUSAOctober 28–30, 2004656 (LV)± 3.9%**47%**39%8%6%
Sooner PollOctober 27–28, 2004498 (LV)± 4.4%**44.4%**35.1%4.2%16.3%
Wilson Research StrategiesOctober 22–24, 2004500 (LV)± 4.5%**41%**38%6%15%
Sooner PollOctober 20–21, 2004500 (LV)± 4.4%**38.0%**36.8%5.8%19.4%
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 20, 2004500 (LV)± 4.5%**48%**43%9%
SurveyUSAOctober 18–20, 2004625 (LV)± 4%**47%**41%8%4%
Global Strategy Group (D)August 18–20, 2004600 (LV)± 4%44%**45%**11%
Consumer LogicOctober 14–19, 2004750 (RV)± 3.6%40%**47%**13%
Wilson Research StrategiesOctober 15–17, 2004500 (LV)± 4.4%**42.2%**39.0%3.6%14.4%
Sooner PollOctober 14, 2004300 (LV)± 5.7%40.6%**43.3%**2.0%14.1%
Cole, Hargrave, Snodgrass & Associates (R)October 10–11, 2004500 (RV)± 4.3%**46%**41%3%10%
Wilson Research StrategiesOctober 8–10, 2004500 (LV)± 4.5%37.8%**40.0%**7.2%15.0%
Sooner PollOctober 7, 2004330 (LV)± 5.4%39.2%**39.8%**21.0%
SurveyUSAOctober 4–6, 2004609 (LV)± 4.1%**46%**44%5%5%
Wilson Research StrategiesOctober 1–3, 2004500 (LV)± 4.5%41.2%**42.6%**2.4%13.8%
Sooner PollSeptember 28–29, 2004553 (LV)± 4.1%37.2%**44.1%**18.7%
Basswood Research (R)September 27, 2004± 4.4%**41.0%**39.6%2.4%17.0%
Wilson Research StrategiesSeptember 24–26, 2004500 (LV)± 4.5%39.2%**44.2%**3.2%13.4%
Global Strategy Group (D)September 24, 2004600 (LV)± 4%40%**44%**16%
Sooner PollSeptember 22, 2004394 (LV)± 4.9%37.0%**39.8%**23.2%
SurveyUSASeptember 20–22, 2004610 (LV)± 4%**45%****45%**6%4%
Wilson Research StrategiesSeptember 17–19, 2004500 (LV)± 4.4%40%**41%**2%17%
Sooner PollSeptember 15, 2004412 (LV)± 4.8%35%**42%**23%
Wilson Research StrategiesSeptember 10–12, 2004500 (LV)± 4.4%37%**39%**6%18%
Wilson Research StrategiesSeptember 3–5, 2004500 (LV)± 4.4%**42%**36%5%17%
Westhill PartnersSeptember 1–2, 2004400 (LV)± 5%42%**44%**1%13%
SurveyUSAAugust 16–18, 2004586 (LV)± 4.1%**47%**43%10%
Wilson Research StrategiesAugust 15–18, 2004300 (LV)± 5.6%**46%**37%2%15%
Cole, Hargrave, Snodgrass & Associates (R)August 10–12, 2004500 (RV)± 4.3%**47%**39%14%
Global Strategy Group (D)August 8–11, 2004600 (LV)± 4%**45%**43%12%
Basswood Research (R)July 29, 2004600 (LV)± 4%**43.5%**31.8%24.7%
Consumer LogicJuly 8–12, 2004825 (RV)± 3.4%39%**42%**21%
Wilson Research StrategiesJune 28–29, 2004500 (LV)± 4.4%**37%**35%1%27%
Wilson Research StrategiesMay 20–21, 2004500 (RV)± 4.4%**41%**39%20%
Consumer LogicMar 26–Apr 5, 2004825 (RV)± 3.4%35%**37%**28%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin
of errorKirk
Humphreys (R)Brad
Carson (D)Sheila
Bilyeu (I)Undecided/
Other
Consumer LogicJuly 8–12, 2004825 (RV)± 3.4%38%**47%**15%
Wilson Research StrategiesJune 28–29, 2004500 (LV)± 4.4%34%**41%**2%23%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin
of errorBob
Anthony (R)Brad
Carson (D)Sheila
Bilyeu (I)Undecided/
Other
Wilson Research StrategiesJune 28–29, 2004500 (LV)± 4.4%34%**39%**2%25%

Results

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

  • Atoka (Largest city: Atoka)
  • Bryan (Largest city: Durant)
  • Caddo (Largest city: Anadarko)
  • Coal (Largest city: Coalgate)
  • Cotton (Largest city: Walters)
  • Craig (Largest city: Vinita)
  • Greer (Largest city: Mangum)
  • Harmon (Largest city: Hollis)
  • Jefferson (Largest city: Waurika)
  • Johnston (Largest city: Tishomingo)
  • Kiowa (Largest city: Hobart)
  • Le Flore (Largest city: Poteau)
  • Love (Largest city: Marietta)
  • Marshall (Largest city: Madill)
  • Mayes (Largest city: Pryor Creek)
  • Murray (Largest city: Sulphur)
  • Nowata (Largest city: Nowata)
  • Okfuskee (Largest city: Okemah)
  • Osage (Largest city: Hominy)
  • Pittsburg (Largest city: McAlester)
  • Pushmataha (Largest city: Antlers)
  • Seminole (Largest city: Seminole)
  • Sequoyah (Largest city: Sallisaw)
  • Tillman (Largest city: Frederick)
  • Cherokee (Largest city: Tahlequah)
  • Choctaw (Largest city: Hugo)
  • Hughes (Largest city: Holdenville)
  • Latimer (Largest city: Wilburton)
  • McIntosh (Largest city: Checotah)
  • Muskogee (Largest city: Muskogee)
  • Okmulgee (Largest city: Okmulgee)
  • Ottawa (Largest city: Miami)
  • Delaware (Largest city: Grove)
  • Adair (Largest city: Stilwell)

Notes

References

References

  1. [https://web.archive.org/web/20050518184114/http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/OK040628senprimary.pdf SurveyUSA]
  2. [https://www.newspapers.com/clip/109432103/the-daily-oklahoman/ Wilson Research Strategies]
  3. "Oklahoma State Election Board - Primary Election 2004".
  4. (19 September 2004). "A Senate Race in Oklahoma Lifts the Right". The New York Times.
  5. "Tom Coburn–The real maverick in the Senate {{!}} Political Realities".
  6. [https://web.archive.org/web/20040919205127/http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/OK040726senprimary.pdf SurveyUSA]
  7. [https://web.archive.org/web/20040721004352/http://www.surveyusa.com/currentelectionpolls.html SurveyUSA]
  8. [https://www.newspapers.com/clip/109433964/the-daily-oklahoman/ Club for Growth (R)]
  9. [https://journalrecord.com/2004/07/20/poll-finds-coburn-humphreys-about-even/ Consumer Logic]
  10. [https://rollcall.com/2004/06/22/thune-wants-daschle-to-ok-spending-cap/ CMA Strategies (R)]
  11. [https://www.upi.com/Archives/2004/04/19/Poll-Coburn-leads-Okla-GOP-Senate-field/3011082347200/ Consumer Logic]
  12. Krehbiel, Randy [https://tulsaworld.com/news/former-oklahoma-city-tv-journalist-abby-broyles-files-to-take-on-sen-jim-inhofe/article_bcb1fca6-5e01-529b-acce-f272fdeba02b.html "Former Oklahoma City TV journalist Abby Broyles files to take on Sen. Jim Inhofe" ''Tulsa World'' Apr. 9, 2020] Accessed Oct. 11, 2021.
  13. "Tom Coburn 2004 U.S. Senate "Dangerously Liberal"".
  14. http://www3.nationaljournal.com/members/adspotlight/2004/10/1007oksen1.htm{{Dead link. (April 2019)
  15. "Brad Carson U.S. Senate 2004 "Stilwell"".
  16. "Carson's First Stand Should Feds Examine Nursing Homes? | News OK".
  17. "Okla. Senate Candidate Is Accused of Fraud (washingtonpost.com)". [[The Washington Post]].
  18. (November 2004). "The Final Predictions".
  19. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  20. [https://web.archive.org/web/20041108173629/http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/OK041031pressen3q.pdf SurveyUSA]
  21. [https://www.soonerpoll.com/post/coburn-takes-substantial-lead-in-u-s-senate-race Sooner Poll]
  22. [https://www.newspapers.com/clip/109442473/the-daily-oklahoman/ Wilson Research Strategies]
  23. [https://www.soonerpoll.com/post/negative-campaigning-takes-its-toll-on-u-s-senate-race Sooner Poll]
  24. [https://web.archive.org/web/20041029022126/http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Oklahoma_Senate_Fall%202004.htm Rasmussen Reports]
  25. [https://web.archive.org/web/20041024121212/http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_ELECTIONS/OK041021PRESSEN3Q.PDF SurveyUSA]
  26. [https://web.archive.org/web/20041031000312/http://www.soonerpolitics.com/ Global Strategy Group (D)]
  27. [https://www.newson6.com/story/5e3687482f69d76f6209d2ce/oklahoma-poll Consumer Logic]
  28. [https://www.newspapers.com/clip/109442280/the-daily-oklahoman/ Wilson Research Strategies]
  29. [https://www.soonerpoll.com/post/more-voters-pick-a-candidate-as-u-s-senate-race Sooner Poll]
  30. [https://web.archive.org/web/20060109034956/http://washingtontimes.com/upi-breaking/20041014-023712-7018r.htm Cole, Hargrave, Snodgrass & Associates (R)]
  31. [https://www.newspapers.com/clip/109442088/the-daily-oklahoman/ Wilson Research Strategies]
  32. [https://www.newspapers.com/clip/109442171/the-daily-oklahoman/ p. 2]
  33. [https://www.soonerpoll.com/post/post-debates-carson-and-coburn-are-tied Sooner Poll]
  34. [https://web.archive.org/web/20041015204158/http://surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/OK041007pressen3qs.pdf SurveyUSA]
  35. [https://www.newspapers.com/clip/109441838/the-daily-oklahoman/ Wilson Research Strategies]
  36. [https://www.newspapers.com/clip/109441903/the-daily-oklahoman/ p. 2]
  37. [https://web.archive.org/web/20060619043517/http://www.soonerpoll.com/survey_092904.html Sooner Poll]
  38. [https://www.upi.com/Top_News/2004/09/29/Coburn-again-ahead-in-Oklahoma-Senate-race/82901096488133/ Basswood Research (R)]
  39. [https://www.newspapers.com/clip/109441575/the-daily-oklahoman/ Wilson Research Strategies]
  40. [https://www.newspapers.com/clip/109441658/the-daily-oklahoman/ p. 2]
  41. [https://www.soonerpoll.com/post/carson-maintains-small-lead-as-race-tightens Sooner Poll]
  42. [https://web.archive.org/web/20040925204624/http://surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/OK040923pressen3qs.pdf SurveyUSA]
  43. [https://web.archive.org/web/20041023102645/http://www.w-r-s.com/articles/TVarticles/Week3/KWTV_ElectionPoll_Week3MQ_040920.pdf Wilson Research Strategies]
  44. [https://www.soonerpoll.com/post/carson-takes-lead-in-u-s-senate-race-as-coburn-goes-on-the-defense Sooner Poll]
  45. [https://www.newspapers.com/clip/109441400/the-daily-oklahoman/ Wilson Research Strategies]
  46. [https://rollcall.com/2004/09/13/in-florida-castors-up-with-tv-ads-mccollum-makes-peace/ Westhill Partners]
  47. [https://web.archive.org/web/20041013185527/http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/OK040819pressen.pdf SurveyUSA]
  48. [https://www.newspapers.com/clip/109440905/the-daily-oklahoman/ Wilson Research Strategies]
  49. [https://www.newspapers.com/clip/109440543/the-daily-oklahoman/ Cole, Hargrave, Snodgrass & Associates (R)]
  50. [https://www.newspapers.com/clip/109440543/the-daily-oklahoman/ Global Strategy Group (D)]
  51. [https://www.newspapers.com/clip/109440543/the-daily-oklahoman/ Basswood Research (R)]
  52. [https://www.newspapers.com/clip/109433061/the-daily-oklahoman/ Wilson Research Strategies]
  53. Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives. "Statistics of the Presidential and Congressional Election of November 2, 2004".
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