2004 United States Senate election in Arkansas

Background

Incumbent Democrat Blanche Lincoln ran for re-election. Lincoln won re-election over Republican state senator Jim Holt while President George W. Bush carried the state with almost the same margin of victory.

The Democratic Party held super-majority status in the Arkansas General Assembly. A majority of local and statewide offices were also held by Democrats. This was rare in the modern South, where a majority of statewide offices are held by Republicans. Arkansas had the distinction in 1992 of being the only state in the country to give the majority of its vote to a single candidate in the presidential election—native son Bill Clinton—while every other state's electoral votes were won by pluralities of the vote among the three candidates. Arkansas has become more reliably Republican in presidential elections in recent years. The state voted for John McCain in 2008 by a margin of 20 percentage points, making it one of the few states in the country to vote more Republican than it had in 2004, the others being Louisiana, Oklahoma, Tennessee and West Virginia. Obama's relatively poor showing in Arkansas was likely due to a lack of enthusiasm from state Democrats following former Arkansas First Lady Hillary Clinton's failure to win the nomination, and his relatively poor performance among rural white voters (Clinton, however, herself lost the state by an even greater margin as the Democratic nominee in 2016).

Democrats had an overwhelming majority of registered voters, the Democratic Party of Arkansas is more conservative than the national entity. Two of Arkansas' three Democratic Representatives were members of the Blue Dog Coalition, which tends to be more pro-business, pro-military, and socially conservative than the center-left Democratic mainstream. Reflecting the state's large evangelical population, the state has a strong social conservative bent. Under the Arkansas Constitution Arkansas is a right to work state, its voters passed a ban on same-sex marriage with 74% voting yes, and the state is one of a handful that has legislation on its books banning abortion.

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

• Rosemarie Clampitt, retired actress
• Jim Holt, state senator
• Andy Lee, Benton County Sheriff

Results

General election

Candidates

• Blanche Lincoln (D), Incumbent U.S. Senator
• Jim Holt (R), State Senator

Campaign

Lincoln was a popular incumbent. In March, she had an approval rating of 55%. Lincoln called herself an advocate for rural America, having grown up on a farm herself. Holt was from Northwest Arkansas, and was also living on a farm. Holt was widely known as a long shot. By the end of June, he had raised just $29,000, while Lincoln had over $5 million cash on hand.

Debates

• Complete video of debate, October 28, 2004

Predictions

Polling

Results

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Cleburne (Largest city: Heber Springs)
• Lonoke (Largest city: Cabot)
• Montgomery (Largest city: Mount Ida)
• Pike (Largest city: Glenwood)
• Pope (Largest city: Russellville)
• Saline (Largest city: Benton)
• Scott (Largest city: Waldron)
• Stone (Largest city: Mountain View)

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Union (Largest city: El Dorado)
• Washington (Largest city: Fayetteville)

By congressional district

Lincoln won three of four congressional districts.

Notes

References

References

1. [http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/54/Election-state-04-08.png Wikimedia] {{user-generated source. (December 2022)
2. (31 March 2004). "Blytheville Native Launches U.S. Senate Bid". kait8.com.
3. David Leip. "2004 Senatorial Republican Primary Election Results - Arkansas". uselectionatlas.org.
4. "John J. Miller on U.S. Senate & Election 2004 on National Review Online".
5. (2 July 2004). "Sen. Lincoln Visits with Constituents in Region 8". kait8.com.
6. (11 August 2004). "Can Republicans hold on to the Senate?". NBC News.
7. (November 2004). "The Final Predictions".
8. [https://www.surveyusa.com/2004Elec.html SurveyUSA]