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2004 United States presidential election in North Carolina

none

Field	Value
election_name	2004 United States presidential election in North Carolina
country	North Carolina
type	presidential
ongoing	no
previous_election	2000 United States presidential election in North Carolina
previous_year	2000
next_election	2008 United States presidential election in North Carolina
next_year	2008
election_date	November 2, 2004
image_size	x200px
image1	George-W-Bush (cropped).jpeg
nominee1	George W. Bush
party1	Republican Party (United States)
home_state1	Texas
running_mate1	Dick Cheney
electoral_vote1	15
popular_vote1	1,961,166
percentage1	56.02%
image2	John F. Kerry (wide crop).jpg
nominee2	John Kerry
party2	Democratic Party (United States)
home_state2	Massachusetts
running_mate2	John Edwards
electoral_vote2	0
popular_vote2	1,525,849
percentage2	43.58%
map_image	{{Switcher
map_caption
title	President
before_election	George W. Bush
before_party	Republican Party (United States)
after_election	George W. Bush
after_party	Republican Party (United States)
turnout	64.26%

Main article: 2004 United States presidential election

| [[File:North Carolina Presidential Election Results 2004.svg|400px]] | County results | [[File:2004 United States presidential election in North Carolina results map by congressional district.svg|400px]] | Congressional district results | [[File:NC President 2004.svg|400px]] | Precinct results Bush Kerry Tie The 2004 United States presidential election in North Carolina took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 15 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

North Carolina was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 12.44% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or a red state. North Carolina was also the home state of Democratic Party vice presidential nominee John Edwards, who was then representing the state in the United States Senate. This was not enough for Democrats to break Republican success in this state since Jimmy Carter's victory in 1976. While winning the state comfortably, Bush's margin of 12.44% was 0.39% lower than his 2000 performance, making it the only Southern state to swing more Democratic than 2000.

Bush became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying Mecklenburg or Guilford counties since Calvin Coolidge in 1924.

As of 2024, this was the last presidential election in which North Carolina was decided by more than a 5% margin.

Primaries

2004 North Carolina Democratic presidential caucuses

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.

Source	Ranking
D.C. Political Report
Cook Political Report
Research 2000
Zogby International
The Washington Post	Washington Post
Washington Dispatch
Washington Times
The New York Times
CNN
Newsweek
Associated Press
Rasmussen Reports

Polling

Bush won every single pre-election poll. The final 3-poll average showed Bush leading 52% to 44%.

Fundraising

Bush raised $4,465,160. Kerry raised $2,049,794.

Advertising and visits

Neither campaign advertised or visited the state during the fall campaign.

Analysis

John Edwards failed to make his home state competitive in the general election. In 2000, George W. Bush had performed strongly in most of the South, including North Carolina, which he had won by 12.83%. As in most of the rest of the South, he did so once again in North Carolina, notwithstanding Edwards' presence on the Democratic ticket, although his margin of victory did go down slightly, to 12.44%, even as nationally he improved from losing the popular vote by 0.5% to winning it by 2.5%. Bush consistently led in polling leading up to election day.

Bush won a majority of the 100 counties and congressional districts. The only region in the state that Kerry dominated in was the Northeastern black belt, the location of North Carolina's 1st congressional district. However, Kerry did narrowly flip two heavily populated counties, Mecklenburg and Guilford, which have gone on to give Democrats over 55% of the vote in every subsequent election as of 2024. He also cut Bush's margin in another heavily populated county, Wake, from 7.1% to 2.1%. As of 2024, Wake has gone on to give Democrats over 55% of the vote in every subsequent election save 2012. Large Democratic margins in these counties have been instrumental to making North Carolina competitive in every election from 2008 onward.

, this is the last election in which Pitt County, Forsyth County, Wilson County, Wake County, Buncombe County, and Cumberland County voted for a Republican presidential candidate. This is also the last presidential race in where any candidate won North Carolina by double digits, as well as the last time the state was not seriously contested.

Results

2004 United States presidential election in North Carolina	Party	Candidate	Running mate	Votes	Percentage	Electoral votes
Republican	George W. Bush (incumbent)	Richard Cheney (incumbent)	1,961,166	56.02%	15
Democratic	John Kerry	John Edwards	1,525,849	43.58%	0
Libertarian	Michael Badnarik	Richard Campagna	11,731	0.34%	0
Others	N/A	N/A	2,261	0.06%	0
Totals		3,501,007		100%		15
Voter turnout (Voting Age population)		55.4%

By county

County	George W. Bush
Republican	John Kerry
Democratic	Various candidates
Other parties	Margin	Total	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%	Totals	1,961,166	56.02%	1,525,849	43.58%	13,992	0.40%	435,317	12.44%	3,501,007
	Alamance		33,302		61.47%		20,686		38.18%		187		0.35%		12,616		23.29%		54,175
	Alexander		10,928		70.05%		4,618		29.60%		54		0.34%		6,310		40.45%		15,600
	Alleghany		2,883		59.73%		1,922		39.82%		22		0.45%		961		19.91%		4,827
	Anson		3,796		41.15%		5,413		58.68%		16		0.17%		−1,617		−17.53%		9,225
	Ashe		7,292		61.68%		4,477		37.87%		54		0.46%		2,815		23.81%		11,823
	Avery		5,678		75.47%		1,805		23.99%		41		0.55%		3,873		51.48%		7,524
	Beaufort		12,432		63.68%		7,025		35.99%		65		0.34%		5,407		27.69%		19,522
	Bertie		3,057		38.06%		4,938		61.48%		37		0.46%		−1,881		−23.42%		8,032
	Bladen		6,174		50.14%		6,109		49.61%		30		0.24%		65		0.53%		12,313
	Brunswick		22,925		60.37%		14,903		39.24%		149		0.39%		8,022		21.13%		37,977
	Buncombe		52,491		49.99%		51,868		49.39%		654		0.63%		623		0.60%		105,013
	Burke		18,922		61.51%		11,728		38.12%		112		0.37%		7,194		23.39%		30,762
	Cabarrus		40,780		67.05%		19,803		32.56%		241		0.40%		20,977		34.49%		60,824
	Caldwell		21,186		67.58%		9,999		31.90%		163		0.52%		11,187		35.68%		31,348
	Camden		2,480		64.75%		1,339		34.96%		11		0.29%		1,141		29.79%		3,830
	Carteret		17,716		69.27%		7,732		30.23%		127		0.50%		9,984		39.04%		25,575
	Caswell		4,868		51.58%		4,539		48.10%		30		0.32%		329		3.48%		9,437
	Catawba		39,602		67.48%		18,858		32.13%		228		0.39%		20,744		35.35%		58,688
	Chatham		12,892		49.73%		12,897		49.75%		133		0.51%		−5		−0.02%		25,922
	Cherokee		7,517		67.12%		3,635		32.46%		47		0.42%		3,882		34.66%		11,199
	Chowan		2,967		55.09%		2,406		44.67%		13		0.24%		561		10.42%		5,386
	Clay		3,209		65.95%		1,628		33.46%		29		0.59%		1,581		32.49%		4,866
	Cleveland		22,750		61.36%		14,215		38.34%		114		0.31%		8,535		23.02%		37,079
	Columbus		10,773		50.84%		10,343		48.81%		75		0.36%		430		2.03%		21,191
	Craven		23,575		62.44%		14,019		37.13%		162		0.43%		9,556		25.31%		37,756
	Cumberland		49,139		51.60%		45,788		48.08%		299		0.31%		3,351		3.52%		95,226
	Currituck		6,013		66.99%		2,909		32.41%		54		0.60%		3,104		34.58%		8,976
	Dare		9,345		60.10%		6,136		39.46%		67		0.43%		3,209		20.64%		15,548
	Davidson		42,075		70.72%		17,191		28.89%		230		0.39%		24,884		41.81%		59,496
	Davie		12,372		74.17%		4,233		25.38%		75		0.45%		8,139		48.79%		16,680
	Duplin		9,611		57.96%		6,923		41.75%		49		0.30%		2,688		16.21%		16,583
	Durham		34,614		31.57%		74,524		67.96%		513		0.47%		−39,910		−36.39%		109,651
	Edgecombe		8,163		38.73%		12,877		61.09%		39		0.19%		−4,714		−22.36%		21,079
	Forsyth		75,294		54.12%		63,340		45.53%		491		0.35%		11,954		8.59%		139,125
	Franklin		11,540		55.17%		9,286		44.39%		92		0.44%		2,254		10.78%		20,918
	Gaston		43,252		67.84%		20,254		31.77%		249		0.39%		22,998		36.07%		63,755
	Gates		1,924		47.47%		2,121		52.33%		8		0.20%		−197		−4.86%		4,053
	Graham		2,693		67.54%		1,272		31.90%		22		0.56%		1,421		35.64%		3,987
	Granville		9,491		51.02%		9,057		48.69%		53		0.28%		434		2.33%		18,601
	Greene		3,800		58.71%		2,665		41.18%		7		0.11%		1,135		17.53%		6,472
	Guilford		98,254		49.30%		100,042		50.19%		1,018		0.51%		−1,788		−0.89%		199,314
	Halifax		8,088		41.17%		11,528		58.68%		31		0.16%		−3,440		−17.51%		19,647
	Harnett		20,922		64.24%		11,563		35.50%		86		0.26%		9,359		28.74%		32,571
	Haywood		14,545		56.09%		11,237		43.33%		150		0.58%		3,308		12.76%		25,932
	Henderson		28,025		64.82%		15,003		34.70%		206		0.48%		13,022		30.12%		43,234
	Hertford		2,942		36.18%		5,141		63.22%		49		0.61%		−2,199		−27.04%		8,132
	Hoke		5,257		47.41%		5,794		52.25%		37		0.33%		−267		−4.84%		11,088
	Hyde		1,235		53.86%		1,048		45.70%		10		0.43%		187		8.16%		2,293
	Iredell		38,675		67.88%		18,065		31.71%		233		0.41%		20,610		36.17%		56,973
	Jackson		7,351		51.86%		6,737		47.53%		86		0.61%		614		4.33%		14,174
	Johnston		36,903		67.89%		17,266		31.76%		188		0.35%		19,637		36.13%		54,357
	Jones		2,607		57.77%		1,893		41.95%		13		0.29%		714		15.82%		4,513
	Lee		11,834		60.55%		7,657		39.18%		52		0.27%		4,177		21.37%		19,543
	Lenoir		12,939		55.82%		10,207		44.04%		33		0.14%		2,732		11.78%		23,179
	Lincoln		20,052		67.79%		9,434		31.89%		93		0.32%		10,618		35.90%		29,579
	Macon		9,448		62.89%		5,489		36.53%		87		0.58%		3,959		26.36%		15,024
	Madison		5,175		54.69%		4,234		44.74%		54		0.57%		941		9.95%		9,463
	Martin		5,334		51.03%		5,102		48.81%		16		0.15%		232		2.22%		10,452
	McDowell		10,590		66.18%		5,330		33.31%		82		0.51%		5,260		32.87%		16,002
	Mecklenburg		155,084		48.00%		166,828		51.63%		1,190		0.37%		−11,744		−3.63%		323,102
	Mitchell		5,686		72.92%		2,080		26.67%		32		0.41%		3,606		46.25%		7,798
	Montgomery		5,745		56.99%		4,313		42.79%		22		0.22%		1,432		14.20%		10,080
	Moore		24,714		64.39%		13,555		35.32%		113		0.30%		11,159		29.07%		38,382
	Nash		21,902		58.14%		15,693		41.66%		78		0.21%		9,779		16.48%		37,673
	New Hanover		45,351		55.82%		35,572		43.78%		324		0.40%		12,616		12.04%		81,247
	Northampton		3,176		36.21%		5,584		63.67%		10		0.11%		−2,408		−27.46%		8,770
	Onslow		25,890		69.45%		11,250		30.18%		137		0.37%		14,640		39.27%		37,277
	Orange		20,771		32.38%		42,910		66.89%		472		0.74%		−22,139		−34.51%		64,153
	Pamlico		3,679		60.93%		2,335		38.67%		24		0.40%		1,344		22.26%		6,038
	Pasquotank		6,609		48.42%		6,984		51.17%		55		0.41%		−375		−2.75%		13,648
	Pender		10,037		58.75%		6,999		40.97%		49		0.28%		3,038		17.78%		17,085
	Perquimans		2,965		59.80%		1,971		39.75%		22		0.44%		994		20.05%		4,958
	Person		8,973		58.98%		6,198		40.74%		43		0.28%		2,775		18.24%		15,214
	Pitt		28,590		53.30%		24,924		46.46%		129		0.24%		3,666		6.84%		53,643
	Polk		5,140		56.98%		3,787		41.98%		94		1.05%		1,353		15.00%		9,021
	Randolph		37,771		74.19%		12,966		25.47%		173		0.34%		24,805		48.72%		50,910
	Richmond		7,709		47.75%		8,383		51.92%		53		0.33%		−674		−4.17%		16,145
	Robeson		15,909		46.97%		17,868		52.75%		94		0.28%		−1,959		−5.78%		33,871
	Rockingham		22,840		61.09%		14,430		38.60%		118		0.32%		8,410		22.49%		37,388
	Rowan		34,915		67.32%		16,735		32.27%		217		0.42%		18,180		35.05%		51,867
	Rutherford		16,343		66.28%		8,184		33.19%		131		0.53%		8,159		33.09%		24,658
	Sampson		12,600		56.53%		9,649		43.29%		39		0.17%		2,951		13.24%		22,288
	Scotland		5,141		44.52%		6,386		55.30%		20		0.17%		−1,245		−10.78%		11,547
	Stanly		17,814		69.71%		7,650		29.94%		89		0.35%		10,164		39.77%		25,553
	Stokes		13,583		69.96%		5,767		29.71%		64		0.33%		7,816		40.25%		19,414
	Surry		17,587		67.66%		8,304		31.95%		101		0.39%		9,283		35.71%		25,992
	Swain		2,593		51.41%		2,419		47.96%		32		0.64%		174		3.45%		5,044
	Transylvania		9,386		60.21%		6,097		39.11%		105		0.68%		3,289		21.10%		15,588
	Tyrrell		855		53.77%		731		45.97%		4		0.25%		124		7.80%		1,590
	Union		42,820		70.20%		17,974		29.47%		207		0.34%		24,846		40.73%		61,001
	Vance		6,884		43.91%		8,762		55.89%		31		0.20%		−1,878		−11.98%		15,677
	Wake		177,324		50.83%		169,909		48.71%		1,611		0.46%		7,415		2.12%		348,844
	Warren		2,840		35.38%		5,171		64.42%		16		0.20%		−2,331		−29.04%		8,027
	Washington		2,484		45.40%		2,969		54.27%		18		0.33%		−485		−8.87%		5,471
	Watauga		12,659		52.64%		11,232		46.70%		159		0.66%		1,427		5.94%		24,050
	Wayne		24,883		62.14%		15,076		37.65%		87		0.22%		9,807		24.49%		40,046
	Wilkes		19,197		70.70%		7,862		28.95%		95		0.35%		11,335		41.75%		27,154
	Wilson		16,264		53.26%		14,206		46.52%		65		0.21%		2,058		6.74%		30,535
	Yadkin		11,816		77.16%		3,451		22.54%		46		0.30%		8,365		54.62%		15,313
	Yancey		4,940		52.38%		4,434		47.02%		57		0.60%		506		5.36%		9,431

County Flips: {{col-begin}}

Democratic Republican ]]

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Bladen (largest municipality: Elizabethtown)
Chowan (largest municipality: Edenton)
Columbus (largest municipality: Whiteville)
Cumberland (largest municipality: Fayetteville)
Granville (largest municipality: Oxford)
Martin (largest municipality: Williamston)
Tyrrell (largest municipality: Columbia)

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Guilford (largest municipality: Greensboro)
Mecklenburg (largest municipality: Charlotte)

By congressional district

Bush won nine of 13 congressional districts, including two held by Democrats.

District	Bush	Representative
42%	57%	G. K. Butterfield
54%	46%	Bob Etheridge
68%	32%	Walter B. Jones
44%	55%	David Price
66%	33%	Richard Burr
	Virginia Foxx
69%	30%	Howard Coble
56%	44%	Mike McIntyre
54%	45%	Robin Hayes
63%	36%	Sue Wilkins Myrick
67%	33%	Cass Ballenger
	Patrick McHenry
57%	43%	Charles H. Taylor
37%	63%	Mel Watt
47%	52%	Brad Miller

Electors

Main article: List of 2004 United States presidential electors

Technically the voters of North Carolina cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. North Carolina is allocated 15 electors because it has 13 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 15 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 15 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All were pledged to and voted for Bush/Cheney:

Joseph W. Powell
Ann Sullivan
William B. Carraway
Sandra Carter
William H. Trotter
Thomas D. Luckadoo
Judy Keener
Marcia M. Spiegel
Dewitt Rhoades
Davey G. Williamson
Theresa Esposito
Elizabeth Kelly
Larry W. Potts
Joe Morgan
Robert Rector

References

"Voter Turnout".
"Archived copy".
"Election 2004 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections".
"George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President".
"John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democratic Party, President".
"CNN.com Specials".
"CNN.com Specials".
"USATODAY.com - Poll: Edwards pick gives Kerry's campaign a boost".
"RealClear Politics - Polls".
Sullivan, Robert David; [http://www.americamagazine.org/content/unconventional-wisdom/how-red-and-blue-map-evolved-over-past-century ‘How the Red and Blue Map Evolved Over the Past Century’]; ''America Magazine'' in ''The National Catholic Review''; June 29, 2016
"Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project".

Info: Wikipedia Source

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