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2004 United States presidential election in Missouri

none

Field	Value
election_name	2004 United States presidential election in Missouri
country	Missouri
type	presidential
ongoing	no
previous_election	2000 United States presidential election in Missouri
previous_year	2000
next_election	2008 United States presidential election in Missouri
next_year	2008
election_date	November 2, 2004
image_size	x200px
image1	George-W-Bush (cropped).jpeg
nominee1	George W. Bush
party1	Republican Party (United States)
home_state1	Texas
running_mate1	Dick Cheney
electoral_vote1	11
popular_vote1	1,455,713
percentage1	53.30%
image2	John F. Kerry (wide crop).jpg
nominee2	John Kerry
party2	Democratic Party (United States)
home_state2	Massachusetts
running_mate2	John Edwards
electoral_vote2	0
popular_vote2	1,259,171
percentage2	46.10%
map_image	{{Switcher
title	President
before_election	George W. Bush
before_party	Republican Party (United States)
after_election	George W. Bush
after_party	Republican Party (United States)

Main article: 2004 United States presidential election

| [[File:Missouri Presidential Election Results 2004.svg|300px]] | County results |[[File:2004 United States Presidential election in Missouri by congressional district.svg|300px]] |Congressional district results Bush Kerry The 2004 United States presidential election in Missouri took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 11 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Missouri was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 7.20% margin of victory. Prior to the election, 10 of 12 news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or otherwise considered as a red state. He also won a wide majority of the counties and congressional districts in the state.

At the time, Missouri was known for its status as a bellwether state, having voted for the winner of every presidential election since 1904, apart from 1956. Although the state's streak of voting for the winner of the presidency continued, Bush carried this state with a larger margin of victory than his nationwide results, indicating that the state had become more conservative than the rest of the country and that it was trending Republican. These factors eventually led the state to lose its bellwether status in the next election, albeit by a narrow margin.

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.

Source	Ranking
D.C. Political Report
Associated Press
CNN
Cook Political Report
Newsweek
New York Times
Rasmussen Reports
Research 2000
Washington Post
Washington Times
Zogby International
Washington Dispatch

Polling

From May 2004, Bush won every single poll from the state. The final 3 polls taken from the state averaged Bush leading with 51% to 45%.

Fundraising

Bush raised $4,026,802. Kerry raised $1,418,159.

Advertising and visits

This state was considered a major swing state. Both the Republican ticket and Democratic ticket visited the state 7 times in the general election. Kerry focused mostly on the urban areas such as St. Louis and Kansas City, while Bush focused more on rural such as Warrenton and Sedalia.

Analysis

This was a better result for President Bush than 2000, when he carried the state by only 3%. In 2004, he received 265,789 more votes than in 2000, while Kerry won only 148,033 more votes than Gore in 2000. Bush won by a 7% margin. Kerry won just 4 counties in the state: Jackson County, Ste. Genevieve, St. Louis County, and St. Louis City. , this is the last election in which Boone County, home to Columbia and the University of Missouri, voted for the Republican candidate.

Results

2004 United States presidential election in Missouri	Party	Candidate	Votes	Percentage
Republican Party	George W. Bush (incumbent)	1,455,713	53.30%	11
Democratic Party	John Kerry	1,259,171	46.10%	0
Libertarian Party	Michael Badnarik	9,831	0.36%	0
Constitution Party	Michael Peroutka	5,355	0.20%	0
Write In	Ralph Nader	1,294	0.05%	0
Totals	2,731,364	100.00%	11
Voter turnout (Voting Age population)	63.6%

By county

County	George W. Bush
Republican	John Kerry
Democratic	Various candidates
Other parties	Margin	Total	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%	Totals	1,455,713	53.30%	1,259,171	46.10%	16,480	0.60%	196,542	7.20%	2,731,364
	Adair		6,367		55.83%		4,938		43.30%		99		0.87%		1,429		12.53%		11,404
	Andrew		5,135		62.12%		3,069		37.13%		62		0.75%		2,066		24.99%		8,266
	Atchison		2,137		67.71%		1,005		31.84%		14		0.44%		1,132		35.87%		3,156
	Audrain		6,294		58.92%		4,318		40.42%		71		0.66%		1,976		18.50%		10,683
	Barry		9,599		68.92%		4,223		30.32%		105		0.75%		5,376		38.60%		13,927
	Barton		4,572		76.31%		1,373		22.92%		46		0.77%		3,199		53.39%		5,991
	Bates		5,004		59.11%		3,398		40.14%		64		0.75%		1,606		18.97%		8,466
	Benton		5,575		61.88%		3,381		37.53%		53		0.59%		2,194		24.35%		9,009
	Bollinger		4,102		69.58%		1,754		29.75%		39		0.66%		2,348		39.83%		5,895
	Boone		37,801		49.71%		37,643		49.50%		602		0.79%		158		0.21%		76,046
	Buchanan		19,812		52.21%		17,799		46.90%		339		0.89%		2,013		5.31%		37,950
	Butler		11,696		71.14%		4,666		28.38%		79		0.48%		7,030		42.76%		16,441
	Caldwell		2,593		60.75%		1,645		38.54%		30		0.70%		948		22.21%		4,268
	Callaway		11,108		62.50%		6,559		36.90%		106		0.60%		4,549		25.60%		17,773
	Camden		13,122		67.23%		6,296		32.26%		101		0.52%		6,826		34.97%		19,519
	Cape Girardeau		23,814		68.90%		10,568		30.57%		183		0.53%		13,246		38.33%		34,565
	Carroll		3,155		66.55%		1,568		33.07%		18		0.38%		1,587		33.48%		4,741
	Carter		1,797		64.66%		964		34.69%		18		0.64%		833		29.97%		2,779
	Cass		27,253		61.63%		16,681		37.73%		283		0.64%		10,572		23.90%		44,217
	Cedar		4,238		68.32%		1,910		30.79%		55		0.89%		2,328		37.53%		6,203
	Chariton		2,421		55.78%		1,892		43.59%		27		0.62%		529		12.19%		4,340
	Christian		22,102		70.51%		9,059		28.90%		187		0.60%		13,043		41.61%		31,348
	Clark		1,899		50.83%		1,794		48.02%		43		1.15%		105		2.81%		3,736
	Clay		51,193		53.07%		44,670		46.31%		597		0.62%		6,523		6.76%		96,460
	Clinton		5,287		55.42%		4,165		43.66%		88		0.92%		1,122		11.76%		9,540
	Cole		24,752		67.44%		11,753		32.02%		196		0.54%		12,999		35.42%		36,701
	Cooper		5,058		67.37%		2,400		31.97%		50		0.66%		2,658		35.40%		7,508
	Crawford		5,686		60.61%		3,632		38.72%		63		0.68%		2,054		21.89%		9,381
	Dade		2,963		72.46%		1,104		27.00%		22		0.55%		1,859		45.46%		4,089
	Dallas		4,788		65.96%		2,407		33.16%		64		0.88%		2,381		32.80%		7,259
	Daviess		2,351		61.97%		1,402		36.95%		41		1.08%		949		25.02%		3,794
	DeKalb		2,941		62.76%		1,707		36.43%		38		0.81%		1,234		26.33%		4,686
	Dent		4,369		69.31%		1,865		29.58%		70		1.12%		2,504		39.73%		6,304
	Douglas		4,498		71.09%		1,741		27.52%		88		1.39%		2,757		43.57%		6,327
	Dunklin		6,720		57.55%		4,901		41.97%		56		0.48%		1,819		15.58%		11,677
	Franklin		26,429		58.32%		18,556		40.95%		333		0.73%		7,873		17.37%		45,318
	Gasconade		4,753		66.28%		2,355		32.84%		63		0.88%		2,398		33.44%		7,171
	Gentry		2,085		62.95%		1,201		36.26%		26		0.79%		884		26.69%		3,312
	Greene		77,885		62.18%		46,657		37.25%		724		0.58%		31,228		24.93%		125,266
	Grundy		3,172		65.97%		1,561		32.47%		75		1.56%		1,611		33.50%		4,808
	Harrison		2,729		67.42%		1,279		31.60%		40		0.99%		1,450		35.82%		4,048
	Henry		6,361		58.48%		4,461		41.01%		55		0.51%		1,900		17.47%		10,877
	Hickory		2,791		57.36%		2,043		41.99%		32		0.66%		748		15.37%		4,866
	Holt		1,864		69.27%		811		30.14%		16		0.59%		1,053		39.13%		2,691
	Howard		2,915		59.24%		1,972		40.07%		34		0.69%		943		19.17%		4,921
	Howell		11,097		67.75%		5,118		31.25%		164		1.00%		5,979		36.50%		16,379
	Iron		2,477		52.94%		2,157		46.10%		45		0.96%		320		6.84%		4,679
	Jackson		130,500		41.30%		183,654		58.12%		1,839		0.58%		-53,154		-16.82%		315,993
	Jasper		31,846		70.64%		13,002		28.84%		237		0.53%		18,844		41.80%		45,085
	Jefferson		46,624		49.99%		46,057		49.38%		583		0.63%		567		0.61%		93,264
	Johnson		12,257		60.57%		7,790		38.50%		189		0.93%		4,467		22.07%		20,236
	Knox		1,207		61.02%		761		38.47%		10		0.51%		446		22.55%		1,978
	Laclede		10,578		71.14%		4,213		28.33%		78		0.52%		6,365		42.81%		14,869
	Lafayette		9,656		59.67%		6,412		39.62%		114		0.70%		3,244		20.05%		16,182
	Lawrence		11,194		70.82%		4,506		28.51%		106		0.67%		6,688		42.31%		15,806
	Lewis		2,862		61.63%		1,754		37.77%		28		0.60%		1,108		23.86%		4,644
	Lincoln		11,316		57.04%		8,368		42.18%		155		0.78%		2,948		14.86%		19,839
	Linn		3,422		58.02%		2,440		41.37%		36		0.61%		982		16.65%		5,898
	Livingston		4,029		63.49%		2,278		35.90%		39		0.61%		1,751		27.59%		6,346
	Macon		4,673		61.73%		2,856		37.73%		41		0.54%		1,817		24.00%		7,570
	Madison		2,905		59.07%		1,972		40.10%		41		0.83%		933		18.97%		4,918
	Maries		2,825		63.86%		1,563		35.33%		36		0.81%		1,262		28.53%		4,424
	Marion		7,815		62.76%		4,568		36.68%		70		0.56%		3,247		26.08%		12,453
	McDonald		5,443		70.46%		2,215		28.67%		67		0.87%		3,228		41.79%		7,725
	Mercer		1,207		66.43%		582		32.03%		28		1.54%		625		34.40%		1,817
	Miller		7,797		71.99%		2,959		27.32%		75		0.69%		4,838		44.67%		10,831
	Mississippi		2,903		54.79%		2,374		44.81%		21		0.40%		529		9.98%		5,298
	Moniteau		4,743		70.89%		1,913		28.59%		35		0.52%		2,830		42.30%		6,691
	Monroe		2,632		61.11%		1,647		38.24%		28		0.65%		985		22.87%		4,307
	Montgomery		3,563		61.86%		2,147		37.27%		50		0.87%		1,416		24.59%		5,760
	Morgan		5,657		64.50%		3,053		34.81%		61		0.69%		2,604		29.69%		8,771
	New Madrid		4,154		52.54%		3,716		47.00%		37		0.47%		438		5.54%		7,907
	Newton		17,187		71.95%		6,564		27.48%		138		0.58%		10,623		44.47%		23,889
	Nodaway		6,226		61.53%		3,830		37.85%		63		0.62%		2,396		23.68%		10,119
	Oregon		2,769		59.26%		1,823		39.01%		81		1.73%		946		20.25%		4,673
	Osage		4,975		74.58%		1,673		25.08%		23		0.34%		3,302		49.50%		6,671
	Ozark		3,083		65.50%		1,561		33.16%		63		1.34%		1,522		32.34%		4,707
	Pemiscot		3,398		49.93%		3,381		49.68%		27		0.40%		17		0.25%		6,806
	Perry		5,583		67.70%		2,621		31.78%		43		0.52%		2,962		35.92%		8,247
	Pettis		11,603		66.32%		5,801		33.16%		92		0.53%		5,802		33.16%		17,496
	Phelps		11,874		63.50%		6,666		35.65%		160		0.85%		5,208		27.85%		18,700
	Pike		4,314		53.66%		3,670		45.65%		56		0.70%		644		8.01%		8,040
	Platte		23,302		55.52%		18,412		43.87%		256		0.61%		4,890		11.65%		41,970
	Polk		8,586		68.95%		3,775		30.31%		92		0.74%		4,811		38.64%		12,453
	Pulaski		8,618		70.52%		3,551		29.06%		52		0.43%		5,067		41.46%		12,221
	Putnam		1,660		67.89%		772		31.57%		13		0.53%		888		36.32%		2,445
	Ralls		2,986		59.32%		2,031		40.35%		17		0.34%		955		18.97%		5,034
	Randolph		6,551		64.24%		3,586		35.16%		61		0.60%		2,965		29.08%		10,198
	Ray		5,673		52.59%		5,034		46.66%		81		0.75%		639		5.93%		10,788
	Reynolds		1,896		56.36%		1,449		43.07%		19		0.57%		447		13.29%		3,364
	Ripley		3,693		65.33%		1,907		33.73%		53		0.94%		1,786		31.60%		5,653
	Saline		5,389		54.22%		4,479		45.06%		71		0.71%		910		9.16%		9,939
	Schuyler		1,124		55.34%		894		44.02%		13		0.64%		230		11.32%		2,031
	Scotland		1,352		61.54%		828		37.69%		17		0.77%		524		23.85%		2,197
	Scott		11,330		64.94%		6,057		34.71%		61		0.35%		5,273		30.23%		17,448
	Shannon		2,511		60.26%		1,618		38.83%		38		0.91%		893		21.43%		4,167
	Shelby		2,280		65.11%		1,201		34.29%		21		0.60%		1,079		30.82%		3,502
	St. Charles		95,826		58.61%		66,855		40.89%		807		0.50%		28,971		17.72%		163,488
	St. Clair		3,098		62.40%		1,841		37.08%		26		0.52%		1,257		25.32%		4,965
	St. Francois		12,087		52.71%		10,748		46.87%		98		0.43%		1,339		5.84%		22,933
	St. Louis		244,969		45.12%		295,284		54.38%		2,730		0.50%		-50,315		-9.26%		542,983
	St. Louis City		27,793		19.22%		116,133		80.29%		712		0.49%		-88,340		-61.07%		144,638
	Ste. Genevieve		3,791		46.54%		4,281		52.55%		74		0.91%		-490		-6.01%		8,146
	Stoddard		9,242		69.74%		3,946		29.78%		64		0.48%		5,296		39.96%		13,252
	Stone		10,534		69.35%		4,578		30.14%		77		0.51%		5,956		39.21%		15,189
	Sullivan		1,880		60.86%		1,178		38.14%		31		1.00%		702		22.72%		3,089
	Taney		13,578		70.43%		5,601		29.05%		101		0.52%		7,977		41.38%		19,280
	Texas		7,234		65.66%		3,664		33.25%		120		1.09%		3,570		32.41%		11,018
	Vernon		5,732		63.75%		3,206		35.65%		54		0.60%		2,526		28.10%		8,992
	Warren		7,883		58.69%		5,461		40.66%		88		0.66%		2,422		18.03%		13,432
	Washington		4,641		50.57%		4,459		48.58%		78		0.85%		182		1.99%		9,178
	Wayne		3,919		63.17%		2,250		36.27%		35		0.56%		1,669		26.90%		6,204
	Webster		10,194		68.21%		4,657		31.16%		93		0.62%		5,537		37.05%		14,944
	Worth		691		61.04%		436		38.52%		5		0.44%		255		22.52%		1,132
	Wright		6,090		72.97%		2,188		26.22%		68		0.82%		3,902		46.75%		8,346

County Flips: {{col-begin}}

Democratic Republican ]]

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Boone (Largest city: Columbia)
Buchanan (Largest city: St. Joseph)
Clay (Largest city: Liberty)
Jefferson (Largest city: Arnold)
Mississippi (Largest city: Charleston)
New Madrid (Largest city: New Madrid)
Pemiscot (Largest city: Caruthersville)
Ray (Largest city: Richmond)
Saline (Largest city: Marshall)
Washington (Largest city: Potosi)

By congressional district

Bush won six of nine congressional districts, including one held by a Democrat.

District	Bush	Representative
25%	75%	William Lacy Clay, Jr.
60%	40%	Todd Akin
43%	57%	Dick Gephardt
	Russ Carnahan
64%	35%	Ike Skelton
40%	59%	Karen McCarthy
	Emanuel Cleaver
57%	42%	Sam Graves
67%	32%	Roy Blunt
64%	36%	Jo Ann Emerson
59%	41%	Kenny Hulshof

Electors

Main article: List of 2004 United States presidential electors

Technically the voters of Missouri cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Missouri is allocated 11 electors because it has 9 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 11 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 11 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 11 were pledged for Bush/Cheney.

Rosemary Kochner
Fred Dyer
Miriam Stonebraker
Carolyn McDowell
Cathy Owens
Steve Krueger
Emory Melton
John Schudy
Richard Hardy
John Marschalk
Warren Erdman

References

[http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW Article title] {{dead link. (July 2016)
"Election 2004 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections".
"George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President".
"John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democratic Party, President".
"CNN.com Specials".
"2004 Presidential General Election Results - Missouri".
Leip, David. "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections".
IT, Missouri Secretary of State -. "News".
"Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project".
[http://www.sos.mo.gov/elections/2004general/presElectors_MORepublican.asp Archived copy] {{Webarchive. link. (2004-11-12)

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2004-united-states-presidential-election-by-state united-states-presidential-elections-in-missouri 2004-missouri-elections

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