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2004 United States presidential election in Minnesota

none

Field	Value
election_name	2004 United States presidential election in Minnesota
country	Minnesota
flag_image	File:Flag of Minnesota (1983-2024).svg
type	presidential
ongoing	no
flag_year	1983
previous_election	2000 United States presidential election in Minnesota
previous_year	2000
next_election	2008 United States presidential election in Minnesota
next_year	2008
election_date	November 2, 2004
turnout	78.77%
image_size	x200px
image1	John F. Kerry (wide crop).jpg
nominee1	John Kerry
party1	Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party
home_state1	Massachusetts
running_mate1	John Edwards
electoral_vote1	9
popular_vote1	1,445,014
percentage1	51.09%
image2	George-W-Bush (cropped).jpeg
nominee2	George W. Bush
party2	Republican Party of Minnesota
home_state2	Texas
running_mate2	Dick Cheney
electoral_vote2	0
popular_vote2	1,346,695
percentage2	47.61%
map_image	{{Switcher
title	President
before_election	George W. Bush
before_party	Republican Party of Minnesota
after_election	George W. Bush
after_party	Republican Party of Minnesota

Main article: 2004 United States presidential election

| [[File:Minnesota Presidential Election Results 2004.svg|320px]] | County results | [[File:2004 United States presidential election in Minnesota by congressional district.svg|320px]] | Congressional district results |[[File:MN President 2004.svg|320px]] | Precinct results Kerry Bush Tie/No Data The 2004 United States presidential election in Minnesota took place on November 2, 2004, as part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose ten representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Minnesota was won by Democratic nominee John Kerry by a 3.5% margin of victory. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered it as a major swing state in 2004 based on pre-election polling. The state is historically a blue state, as the last Republican to carry the state in a presidential election was Richard Nixon in 1972. However, in 2000 Al Gore carried the state with just 48% of the vote, by a margin of just 2.4%. In 2004, Minnesota was the only state to split its electoral votes, as a faithless elector pledged to Kerry cast a ballot for John Edwards (written as John Ewards), his running mate. The identity and reason for the faithless elector's vote are not known, though fellow Minnesota electors suspected it was a mistake.

Caucuses

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.

Source	Ranking
D.C. Political Report
Cook Political Report
Research 2000
Zogby International
The Washington Post	Washington Post
Washington Dispatch
Washington Times
The New York Times
CNN
Newsweek
Associated Press
Rasmussen Reports

Polling

Minnesota was considered a swing state based on its tight poll numbers. In early 2004, Kerry was leading in every poll against Bush, sometimes even reaching 50%. However, in the summer, Kerry was still leading in most of the polls but the gap was very small. It wasn't until late October when Bush was leading him. In the last poll by Rasmussen Reports, Kerry won with 48% to 47%, but left a lot of undecided voters. In the last 3 polling average, Kerry lead 49% to 47%, but with Bush winning 2 of 3. The last poll average by Real Clear Politics showed Kerry leading 49% to 45%. Overall polls showed a lot of undecided voters. On election day, Kerry won with 51% of the vote.

Fundraising

Bush raised $2,507,181. Kerry raised $2,635,150.

Advertising and visits

Both tickets visited the state 7 times. A total of $1 million to $3 million was spent each week.

Analysis

Kerry on the campaign trail in [[Rochester, Minnesota

Minnesota is the state with the longest streak as a blue state, having last backed the Republican presidential nominee in Richard Nixon's 1972 landslide, and even sticking with the Democrats during Ronald Reagan's two landslides in 1980 and 1984. However, in 2000 and 2004 it was considered a battleground state. Both campaigns invested resources in it, and it ultimately stayed in the Democratic column both times but by relatively narrow margins.

In 2004, the county results were fairly uniform across the state; only a handful of counties had either Bush or Kerry getting over 60% of the vote, and no county had either candidate with over 70% of the vote. Despite winning the state, Kerry won just three of eight congressional districts: Minnesota's 4th congressional district, Minnesota's 5th congressional district, and Minnesota's 8th congressional district.

, this is the last election in which Washington County, Olmsted County, and Dakota County voted for the Republican candidate, and the last in which Ramsey County was not the most Democratic county in the state. This was the first time since 1928 that a Republican had won a majority in Anoka County. Bush became the first ever Republican to win the White House without carrying Nicollet County.

Results

2004 United States presidential election in Minnesota	Party	Candidate	Votes	Percentage
Democratic (DFL)	John Kerry	1,445,014	51.09%	9
Republican	George W. Bush (Inc.)	1,346,695	47.61%	0
Independent	Ralph Nader	18,683	0.66%	0
Libertarian	Michael Badnarik	4,639	0.16%	0
Green	David Cobb	4,408	0.16%	0
Constitution	Michael Peroutka	3,074	0.11%	0
Independent	Write Ins	2,530	0.09%	0
Christian Freedom	Thomas Harens	2,387	0.08%	0
Socialist Equality	Bill Van Auken	539	0.02%	0
Socialist Workers	Roger Calero	416	0.01%	0
Socialist Party USA (Write-in)	Walt Brown (Write-in)	2	0.00%	0
Democratic (DFL)	John Edwards	0	0.00%	1
Totals	2,828,387	100.00%	10
Voter Turnout (Voting Age Population)	74.2%

By county

County	John Kerry
DFL	George W. Bush
Republican	Various candidates
Other parties	Margin	Total votes cast	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%	Totals	1,445,014	51.09%	1,346,695	47.61%	36,678	1.40%	98,319	3.48%	2,828,387
	Aitkin		4,539		48.02%		4,768		50.44%		145		1.53%		-229		-2.42%		9,452
	Anoka		80,226		46.09%		91,853		52.77%		1,987		1.14%		-11,627		-6.68%		174,066
	Becker		6,756		40.21%		9,795		58.30%		250		1.49%		-3,039		-18.09%		16,801
	Beltrami		10,592		50.13%		10,237		48.45%		302		1.43%		355		1.68%		21,131
	Benton		8,059		43.84%		10,043		54.63%		282		1.43%		-1,984		-10.79%		18,384
	Big Stone		1,536		50.08%		1,483		48.35%		48		1.57%		53		1.73%		3,067
	Blue Earth		16,865		50.92%		15,737		47.52%		517		1.56%		1,128		3.40%		33,119
	Brown		5,158		37.44%		8,395		60.93%		225		1.63%		-3,237		-23.49%		13,778
	Carlton		11,462		62.52%		6,642		36.23%		230		1.25%		4,820		26.29%		18,334
	Carver		16,456		36.24%		28,510		62.78%		445		0.98%		-12,054		-26.54%		45,411
	Cass		6,835		42.96%		8,875		55.78%		200		1.26%		-2,040		-12.82%		15,910
	Chippewa		3,424		51.83%		3,089		46.76%		93		1.41%		335		5.07%		6,606
	Chisago		12,219		43.24%		15,705		55.57%		336		1.19%		-3,486		-12.33%		28,260
	Clay		12,989		46.83%		14,365		51.79%		383		1.38%		-1,376		-4.96%		27,737
	Clearwater		1,871		42.90%		2,438		55.90%		52		1.19%		-567		-13.00%		4,361
	Cook		1,733		52.47%		1,489		45.08%		81		2.45%		244		7.39%		3,303
	Cottonwood		2,726		42.80%		3,557		55.85%		86		1.36%		-831		-13.05%		6,369
	Crow Wing		14,005		41.75%		19,106		56.96%		434		1.29%		-5,101		-15.21%		33,545
	Dakota		104,635		48.48%		108,959		50.48%		2,252		1.04%		-4,324		-2.00%		215,846
	Dodge		4,117		41.72%		5,593		56.68%		158		1.60%		-1,476		-14.96%		9,868
	Douglas		8,219		40.47%		11,793		58.07%		297		1.46%		-3,574		-17.60%		20,309
	Faribault		3,767		43.39%		4,794		55.22%		120		1.38%		-1,027		-11.83%		8,681
	Fillmore		5,825		49.79%		5,694		48.67%		179		1.53%		131		1.12%		11,698
	Freeborn		9,733		55.09%		7,681		43.48%		252		1.43%		2,052		11.61%		17,666
	Goodhue		12,103		47.26%		13,134		51.29%		371		1.45%		-1,031		-4.03%		25,608
	Grant		1,856		48.60%		1,893		49.57%		70		1.83%		-37		-0.97%		3,819
	Hennepin		383,841		59.33%		255,133		39.43%		8,007		1.24%		128,708		19.90%		646,981
	Houston		5,276		47.61%		5,631		50.81%		175		1.58%		-355		-3.20%		11,082
	Hubbard		4,741		41.81%		6,444		56.83%		155		1.37%		-1,703		-15.02%		11,340
	Isanti		7,883		40.82%		11,190		57.94%		240		1.24%		-3,307		-17.12%		19,313
	Itasca		13,290		54.54%		10,705		43.93%		372		1.52%		2,585		10.61%		24,367
	Jackson		2,652		45.89%		3,024		52.33%		103		1.78%		-372		-6.44%		5,779
	Kanabec		3,592		43.55%		4,527		54.89%		129		1.56%		-935		-11.34%		8,248
	Kandiyohi		9,337		43.74%		11,704		54.82%		308		1.45%		-2,367		-11.08%		21,349
	Kittson		1,333		49.70%		1,307		48.73%		42		1.57%		26		0.97%		2,682
	Koochiching		3,662		50.10%		3,539		48.42%		108		1.48%		123		1.68%		7,309
	Lac qui Parle		2,390		52.63%		2,093		46.09%		58		1.27%		297		6.54%		4,541
	Lake		4,212		59.57%		2,769		39.16%		90		1.27%		1,433		20.41%		7,071
	Lake of the Woods		921		38.38%		1,428		59.50%		51		2.13%		-507		-21.12%		2,400
	Le Sueur		6,466		44.83%		7,746		53.70%		212		1.46%		-1,280		-8.87%		14,424
	Lincoln		1,558		46.62%		1,736		51.94%		48		1.44%		-178		-5.32%		3,342
	Lyon		5,292		41.76%		7,203		56.84%		178		1.40%		-1,911		-15.08%		12,673
	McLeod		6,712		36.45%		11,407		61.95%		293		1.60%		-4,695		-25.50%		18,412
	Mahnomen		1,339		53.39%		1,132		45.14%		37		1.48%		207		8.25%		2,508
	Marshall		2,308		41.50%		3,187		57.30%		67		1.21%		-879		-15.80%		5,562
	Martin		4,590		41.55%		6,311		57.13%		146		1.33%		-1,721		-15.58%		11,047
	Meeker		5,292		42.91%		6,854		55.57%		188		1.52%		-1,562		-12.66%		12,334
	Mille Lacs		5,677		43.45%		7,194		55.06%		194		1.48%		-1,517		-11.61%		13,065
	Morrison		6,794		40.54%		9,698		57.87%		266		1.59%		-2,904		-17.33%		16,758
	Mower		12,334		60.99%		7,591		37.54%		297		1.47%		4,743		23.45%		20,222
	Murray		2,218		44.38%		2,719		54.40%		61		1.22%		-501		-10.02%		4,998
	Nicollet		8,797		49.59%		8,689		48.98%		255		1.43%		108		0.61%		17,741
	Nobles		3,898		42.35%		5,159		56.05%		147		1.60%		-1,261		-13.70%		9,204
	Norman		1,954		51.29%		1,794		47.09%		62		1.62%		160		4.20%		3,810
	Olmsted		33,285		46.50%		37,371		52.21%		919		1.29%		-4,086		-5.71%		71,575
	Otter Tail		12,038		37.41%		19,734		61.33%		406		1.26%		-7,696		-23.92%		32,178
	Pennington		3,117		44.42%		3,767		53.68%		133		1.89%		-650		-9.26%		7,017
	Pine		7,228		49.79%		7,033		48.44%		257		1.78%		195		1.35%		14,518
	Pipestone		1,900		37.76%		3,066		60.93%		66		1.31%		-1,166		-23.17%		5,032
	Polk		6,729		42.95%		8,724		55.68%		215		1.37%		-1,995		-12.73%		15,668
	Pope		3,301		49.27%		3,303		49.30%		96		1.43%		-2		-0.03%		6,700
	Ramsey		171,846		63.04%		97,096		35.62%		3,635		1.34%		74,750		27.42%		272,577
	Red Lake		963		44.24%		1,164		53.47%		50		2.29%		-201		-9.23%		2,177
	Redwood		3,104		38.14%		4,898		60.18%		137		1.68%		-1,794		-22.04%		8,139
	Renville		3,787		45.36%		4,430		53.06%		132		1.58%		-643		-7.70%		8,349
	Rice		16,425		53.42%		13,881		45.15%		439		1.43%		2,544		8.27%		30,745
	Rock		2,000		38.53%		3,111		59.93%		80		1.54%		-1,111		-21.40%		5,191
	Roseau		2,442		30.87%		5,355		67.69%		114		1.44%		-2,913		-36.82%		7,911
	St. Louis		77,958		65.20%		40,112		33.55%		1,495		1.25%		37,846		31.65%		119,565
	Scott		23,958		39.51%		36,055		59.46%		626		1.03%		-12,097		-19.95%		60,639
	Sherburne		15,816		38.15%		25,182		60.75%		456		1.10%		-9,366		-22.60%		41,454
	Sibley		3,109		39.11%		4,669		58.74%		171		2.15%		-1,560		-19.63%		7,949
	Stearns		32,659		43.21%		41,726		55.21%		1,192		1.58%		-9,067		-12.00%		75,577
	Steele		7,994		42.76%		10,389		55.57%		312		1.67%		-2,395		-12.81%		18,695
	Stevens		2,821		47.42%		3,030		50.93%		98		1.64%		-209		-3.51%		5,949
	Swift		3,165		55.19%		2,481		43.26%		89		1.55%		684		11.93%		5,735
	Todd		5,034		41.21%		6,945		56.86%		235		1.92%		-1,911		-15.65%		12,214
	Traverse		1,026		47.92%		1,076		50.26%		39		1.82%		-50		-2.34%		2,141
	Wabasha		5,548		46.88%		6,120		51.71%		167		1.41%		-572		-4.83%		11,835
	Wadena		2,791		39.35%		4,214		59.41%		88		1.24%		-1,423		-20.06%		7,093
	Waseca		4,179		42.64%		5,457		55.68%		164		1.67%		-1,278		-13.04%		9,800
	Washington		61,395		47.80%		65,751		51.19%		1,303		1.01%		-4,356		-3.39%		128,449
	Watonwan		2,514		45.03%		2,970		53.20%		99		1.77%		-456		-8.17%		5,583
	Wilkin		1,169		33.14%		2,303		65.30%		55		1.56%		-1,134		-32.16%		3,527
	Winona		14,231		51.90%		12,686		46.26%		505		1.84%		1,545		5.64%		27,422
	Wright		22,618		37.99%		36,176		60.77%		740		1.24%		-13,558		-22.78%		59,534
	Yellow Medicine		2,799		48.61%		2,878		49.98%		81		1.40%		-79		-1.37%		5,758

County Flips: {{col-begin}}

Democratic Republican ]]

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Aitkin (largest municipality: Aitkin)
Lincoln (largest municipality: Tyler)

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Beltrami (largest municipality: Bemidji)
Blue Earth (largest municipality: Mankato)
Chippewa (largest municipality: Montevideo)
Cook (largest municipality: Grand Marais)
Kittson (Largest city: Hallock)
Koochiching (Largest city: International Falls)
Mahnomen (largest municipality: Mahnomen)
Nicollet (largest municipality: North Mankato)
Norman (largest municipality: Ada)

By congressional district

Despite losing the state, Bush won five of eight congressional districts, including one held by a Democrat.

District	Bush	Representative
51%	47%	Gil Gutknecht
54%	45%	John Kline
51%	48%	Jim Ramstad
37%	62%	Betty McCollum
28%	71%	Martin Olav Sabo
57%	42%	Mark Kennedy
55%	43%	Collin Peterson
46%	53%	Jim Oberstar

Electors

Main article: List of 2004 United States presidential electors

Technically the voters of Minnesota cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Minnesota is allocated 10 electors because it has 8 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 10 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 10 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state.

Sonja Berg
Vi Grooms-Alban
Matthew Little
Michael Meuers
Tim O'Brien
Lil Ortendahl
Everett Pettiford
Jean Schiebel
Frank Simon
Chandler Harrison Stevens

All ten were pledged for the Kerry/Edwards ticket, but one made a mistake and ended up voting for "John Ewards" for president, while also correctly spelling Edwards' name for vice president. Regardless of the error, the ballot was officially tabulated as an electoral vote for Edwards in both offices. As the electors cast secret ballots, it is unlikely that the identity of the faithless elector will ever be known unless the elector claims responsibility. In 2016, Jean Schiebel told MinnPost that she and some of her fellow electors had an inkling who it was, but declined to publicly identify anyone. The same article also noted that another ballot had both Kerry and Edwards' names written on the line for president, but this did not affect how the vote was interpreted.

As a result of the erroneous vote, Minnesota state law was amended to provide for public balloting of the electors' votes, and invalidation of a vote cast for someone other than the candidate to whom the elector is pledged.

Notes

References

"Office of the State Of Minnesota Secretary of State".
Gihring, Tim. (2016-12-15). "The enduring mystery of America’s last 'faithless elector'".
"Archived copy".
"2004 Presidential Election Polls. Minnesota Polls". US Election Atles.
"RealClear Politics - Polls".
"George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President".
"John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democrat Party, President".
"CNN.com Specials". CNN.
"CNN.com Specials". CNN.
"Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project".
Gihring, Tim. (December 15, 2016). "The enduring mystery of America's last 'faithless elector'". [[MinnPost]].
"MPR: Minnesota elector gives Edwards a vote; Kerry gets other nine".
"2004 Electoral College Results".
"208.08, 2008 Minnesota Statutes". Revisor.leg.state.mn.us.

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