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2004 United States presidential election in Maine

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Field	Value
election_name	2004 United States presidential election in Maine
country	Maine
type	presidential
ongoing	no
previous_election	2000 United States presidential election in Maine
previous_year	2000
next_election	2008 United States presidential election in Maine
next_year	2008
election_date	November 2, 2004
image_size	x200px
image1	John F. Kerry (wide crop).jpg
nominee1	John Kerry
party1	Democratic Party (United States)
home_state1	Massachusetts
running_mate1	John Edwards
electoral_vote1	4
popular_vote1	396,842
percentage1	53.57%
image2	George-W-Bush (cropped).jpeg
nominee2	George W. Bush
party2	Republican Party (United States)
home_state2	Texas
running_mate2	Dick Cheney
electoral_vote2	0
popular_vote2	330,201
percentage2	44.58%
map_image	{{Switcher
map_caption
title	President
before_election	George W. Bush
before_party	Republican Party (United States)
after_election	George W. Bush
after_party	Republican Party (United States)

Main article: 2004 United States presidential election

| [[File:Maine Presidential Election Results 2004.svg|350px]] | County results | [[File:United States House of Representatives elections in Maine, 2010 results by district.svg|350px]] | Congressional district results | [[File:Maine Presidential Results 2004 by Municipality.svg|350px]] | Municipality results Kerry Bush Tie The 2004 United States presidential election in Maine took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Starting which, Maine is one of two states in the U.S. that instead of all of the state's four electors of the Electoral College to vote based upon the statewide results of the voters, two of the individual electors vote based on their congressional district because Maine has two congressional districts. The other two electors vote based upon the statewide results.

Maine was considered by some to be a swing state, because of the closeness of some polls. However, the polls were consistently won by Kerry and neither campaign prioritized the state. On election day, Democrat John Kerry won the popular vote with 53.57% over George W. Bush with 44.58%. This is the most recent presidential election in which a losing Democrat won Maine's 2nd congressional district, and remained the last time until 2020 that the district voted for a losing candidate. This is the first time since 1968 in which a Republican won the popular vote without the state. Bush is the first Republican to win two terms in the White House without carrying Maine at least once and the only Republican to lose Maine's 2nd congressional district and win the election.

Caucuses

2004 Maine Democratic presidential caucuses

Campaign

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.

Source	Ranking
D.C. Political Report
Associated Press
CNN
Cook Political Report
Newsweek
New York Times
Rasmussen Reports
Research 2000
Washington Post
Washington Times
Zogby International
Washington Dispatch

Polling

Out of 15 pre-election polls, Kerry won thirteen of them. By the end of October, all polls showed Kerry over 50%. The final Real Clear Politics average showed Kerry leading 51% to 41.5% with a margin of 9.5%. In three Survey USA polls taken in October, Kerry's numbers increased each time from 49% to 51% to 52%. Also, the final three polls averaged Kerry with 51% to Bush at 45%.

Fundraising

Bush raised $362,522. Kerry raised $1,057,209.

Advertising and visits

After March 3, 2004 Kerry didn't visit the state once, while Bush visited the state 5 times. A rough total estimate of $400,000 was spent on advertising each week, excluding the last week.

Analysis

Once a typical Yankee Republican state, Maine has not been carried by a Republican presidential nominee since George H. W. Bush did so in 1988. While the younger Bush did make a play for the state in 2004, John Kerry ultimately won it by a fairly comfortable 9-point margin, including its two Congressional districts. Maine is one of two states, the other being Nebraska, which allocate their electoral votes by Congressional district. A candidate is awarded an electoral vote for each district won, even if the candidate loses statewide, while the statewide winner is awarded two additional electoral votes. In 2016, 2020, and 2024, Republican Donald Trump won Maine's 2nd district despite losing the state overall, and thus he received one electoral vote from the state both times. This makes George W. Bush the last Republican, and the last candidate of either party until Joe Biden in 2020, to win a presidential election without carrying Maine's 2nd district.

Bush became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying Lincoln or Waldo Counties since James A. Garfield in 1880.

Results

Statewide

2004 United States presidential election in Maine	Party	Candidate	Votes	Percentage
Democratic	John Kerry	396,842	53.57%	4
Republican	George W. Bush (incumbent)	330,201	44.58%	0
Independent	Ralph Nader	8,069	1.09%	0
Green	David Cobb	2,936	0.40%	0
Libertarian	Michael Badnarik	1,965	0.26%	0
Constitution	Michael Peroutka	735	0.10%	0
Others	4	0.00%	0
Totals	740,752	100.00%	4
Voter turnout	72.69%	—

By county

County	John Kerry
Democratic	George W. Bush
Republican	Various candidates
Other parties	Margin	Total votes cast	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%	Total	396,842	53.57%	330,201	44.58%	13,709	1.85%	66,641	8.99%	740,752
	Androscoggin		30,503		54.40%		24,519		43.73%		1,045		1.86%		5,984		10.67%		56,067
	Aroostook		19,569		51.86%		17,564		46.55%		600		1.59%		2,005		5.31%		37,733
	Cumberland		94,846		58.20%		65,384		40.12%		2,732		1.68%		29,462		18.08%		162,962
	Franklin		9,465		54.83%		7,378		42.74%		418		2.42%		2,087		12.09%		17,261
	Hancock		18,048		54.49%		14,405		43.49%		669		2.02%		3,643		11.00%		33,122
	Kennebec		35,616		53.34%		29,761		44.57%		1,395		2.09%		5,855		8.77%		66,772
	Knox		12,690		54.59%		10,103		43.46%		454		1.95%		2,587		11.13%		23,247
	Lincoln		11,351		51.26%		10,370		46.83%		421		1.90%		981		4.43%		22,142
	Oxford		16,618		52.68%		14,196		45.00%		732		2.32%		2,422		7.68%		31,546
	Penobscot		40,417		49.22%		40,318		49.10%		1,377		1.68%		99		0.12%		82,112
	Piscataquis		4,409		44.36%		5,299		53.31%		232		2.33%		-890		-8.95%		9,940
	Sagadahoc		11,107		52.69%		9,497		45.05%		475		2.25%		1,610		7.64%		21,079
	Somerset		13,555		50.00%		12,953		47.78%		600		2.21%		602		2.22%		27,108
	Waldo		11,555		51.77%		10,309		46.19%		454		2.03%		1,246		5.58%		22,318
	Washington		8,391		48.47%		8,619		49.79%		300		1.73%		-228		-1.32%		17,310
	York		58,702		53.35%		49,526		45.01%		1,805		1.64%		9,176		8.34%		110,033

County Flips: {{col-begin}}

Democratic Republican ]]

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Lincoln (largest town: Waldoboro)
Penobscot (largest city: Bangor)
Waldo (largest city: Belfast)

By congressional district

Kerry won both congressional districts.

District	Bush	Kerry	Representative
43%	55%		Tom Allen
46%	52%		Mike Michaud

Electors

Main article: List of 2004 United States presidential electors

Technically the voters of Maine cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Maine is allocated 4 electors because it has 2 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 4 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded just 2 of the electoral votes. The other 2 electoral votes are based upon the congressional district results. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. Since Kerry won both congressional districts, all 4 were pledged to Kerry/Edwards.

Lu Bauer, elector for the 1st Congressional district.
David Garrity, elector for the 2nd Congressional district.
Jill Duson, at-large elector.
Samuel Shapiro, at-large elector.

References

"CNN.com Specials". CNN.
"Archived copy".
"RealClear Politics - Polls".
"Election 2004 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections".
"George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President".
"John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democrat Party, President".
"CNN.com Specials". CNN.
"CNN.com Specials". CNN.
"General Election Tabulations November 2, 2004".
"Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project".
"Electoral College". [[California Secretary of State]].

Info: Wikipedia Source

This article was imported from Wikipedia and is available under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 License. Content has been adapted to SurfDoc format. Original contributors can be found on the article history page.

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