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2004 United States presidential election in Florida

none

Field	Value
election_name	2004 United States presidential election in Florida
country	Florida
type	presidential
ongoing	no
previous_election	2000 United States presidential election in Florida
previous_year	2000
next_election	2008 United States presidential election in Florida
next_year	2008
election_date	November 2, 2004
image_size	x200px
image1	George-W-Bush (cropped).jpeg
nominee1	George W. Bush
party1	Republican Party (United States)
home_state1	Texas
running_mate1	Dick Cheney
electoral_vote1	27
popular_vote1	3,964,522
percentage1	52.10%
image2	John F. Kerry (wide crop).jpg
nominee2	John Kerry
party2	Democratic Party (United States)
home_state2	Massachusetts
running_mate2	John Edwards
electoral_vote2	0
popular_vote2	3,583,544
percentage2	47.09%
map_image
map_size	400px
map_caption
title	President
before_election	George W. Bush
before_party	Republican Party (United States)
after_election	George W. Bush
after_party	Republican Party (United States)
turnout	74%

Bush Kerry

The 2004 United States presidential election in Florida took place on November 2, 2004, as part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 27 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Florida was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 5.01% margin of victory. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered this a tossup, or swing state, but was eventually described as leaning towards Bush near the end of the campaign. Once again, Florida was under the national spotlight due to its high number of electoral votes and the fresh memory of the controversy surrounding the 2000 Florida vote. Turnout was much higher, going from an estimated 6 million voters in 2000 to over 7.5 million voters showing up to vote in 2004.

Bush's more comfortable victory in Florida this time around was attributed to the popularity of his brother, Jeb, who was the state's governor and had approval ratings greater than 60%. Kerry became the first Democrat since Michael Dukakis in the 1988 election to not flip a single county in the state, although he did improve on Al Gore's margins in Gadsden County and Jefferson County.

This was the last time a Republican won a majority of the state's popular vote until 2020.

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.

Source	Ranking
D.C. Political Report
Associated Press
CNN
Cook Political Report
Newsweek
New York Times
Rasmussen Reports
Research 2000
Washington Post
Washington Times
Zogby International
Washington Dispatch

Polling

Main article: Statewide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2004#Florida

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	John
Kerry (D)	George W.
Bush (R)	Ralph
Nader (I)	Other	Undecided
Quinnipiac	October 27–31, 2004	1,098	± 3.3	43%	51%	1%	0%	4%
Quinnipiac	October 22–26, 2004	944	± 3.2	46%	49%	1%	0%	4%
Quinnipiac	October 15–19, 2004	808	± 3.5	47%	48%	1%	0%	4%
Quinnipiac	October 1–5, 2004	717	± 3.7	44%	51%	0%	0%	5%
Quinnipiac	September 18–21, 2004	819	± 3.4	41%	49%	5%	0%	5%
Quinnipiac	August 5–10, 2004	1,094	± 3.0	47%	41%	4%	0%	7%
Quinnipiac	June 23–27, 2004	1,209	± 2.8	43%	43%	5%	1%	9%

Throughout the general election, candidates exchanged narrow leads in the state. The final 3 poll averaged showed Bush leading with 49% to Kerry's 47%.

Fundraising

Bush raised $16,956,510. Kerry raised $7,285,151.

Advertising and visits

This state was heavily targeted as a swing state. Over the course of the election, Bush visited the state 15 times to Kerry's 18 times. Also, both candidates spent heavily on television advertisements, spending an estimated $3 million each week.

Analysis

Main article: 2004 United States election voting controversies

During the 2004 U.S. presidential election, numerous allegations of irregularities were made concerning the voting process in Florida. These allegations included missing and uncounted votes, machine malfunction, and a lack of correlation between the vote count and exit polling.

In the prior election, Ralph Nader obtained over 2% of the vote, thus Bush won with less than 50% of the vote, making his approval rating and his brother's approval ratings the deciding factor of the state. Polls throughout the campaign indicated that Florida was too close to call, prompting concerns about a repeat of the 2000 fiasco. However, the high popularity of George W. Bush's brother, Republican Governor Jeb Bush, contributed to a relatively comfortable victory for Bush, by a margin of 5% over his Democratic rival, John Kerry. Despite this, Florida remained the most Democratic of the 11 states of the former Confederacy, and Kerry's 5% loss in Florida was the closest he came to carrying any Confederate state.

While the South Florida metropolitan area mostly voted for Kerry, the other parts of the state mainly supported Bush, being culturally closer to the rest of the southern United States than to Miami, home to large Hispanic and Jewish populations, as well as retirees and transplants from the largely liberal Northeastern United States.

Key to Bush's victory was increased turnout in Republican areas. Bush's margin of victory in several counties topped 70%, particularly in the Florida Panhandle. Bush also won a significant number of heavily populated and fast-growing areas including Jacksonville, the entire Tampa Bay area, Southwest Florida, Orlando, the Space Coast, and Ocala.

Osceola and Hillsborough counties would not vote Republican again until 2024.

, this is the last time that the city of Orlando has voted Republican in a presidential election.

Results

United States presidential election in Florida, 2004	Party	Candidate	Running mate	Votes	Percentage	Electoral votes
Republican	George W. Bush (Inc.)	Dick Cheney (incumbent)	3,964,522	52.10%	27
Democratic	John Kerry	John Edwards	3,583,544	47.09%	0
Reform	Ralph Nader	Peter Camejo	32,971	0.43%	0
Libertarian	Michael Badnarik	Richard Campagna	11,996	0.16%	0
Constitution	Michael Peroutka	Chuck Baldwin	6,626	0.09%	0
Green	David Cobb	Patricia LaMarche	3,917	0.05%	0
Socialist	Walter Brown	Mary Alice Herbert	3,502	0.05%	0
Socialist Workers	James Harris	Margaret Trowe	2,732	0.04%	0
Totals		7,609,810		100.00%		27
Voter turnout (Voting Age)		74.0%

By county

County	George W. Bush
Republican	John Kerry
Democratic	Various candidates
Other parties	Margin	Total votes cast	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%	Totals	3,964,522	52.10%	3,583,544	47.09%	61,744	0.81%	380,978	5.01%	7,609,810
	Alachua		47,762		42.90%		62,504		56.14%		1,062		0.95%		-14,742		-13.24%		111,328
	Baker		7,738		77.73%		2,180		21.90%		37		0.37%		5,558		55.83%		9,955
	Bay		53,404		71.18%		21,068		28.08%		552		0.74%		32,336		43.10%		75,024
	Bradford		7,557		69.62%		3,244		29.88%		54		0.50%		4,313		39.74%		10,855
	Brevard		153,068		57.66%		110,309		41.55%		2,085		0.79%		42,759		16.11%		265,462
	Broward		244,674		34.61%		453,873		64.21%		8,325		1.18%		-209,199		-29.60%		706,872
	Calhoun		3,782		63.42%		2,116		35.49%		65		1.09%		1,666		27.93%		5,963
	Charlotte		44,428		55.68%		34,256		42.93%		1,102		1.38%		10,172		12.75%		79,786
	Citrus		39,500		56.86%		29,277		42.15%		690		0.99%		10,223		14.71%		69,467
	Clay		62,078		76.17%		18,971		23.28%		446		0.55%		43,107		52.89%		81,495
	Collier		83,631		64.99%		43,892		34.11%		1,160		0.90%		39,739		30.88%		128,683
	Columbia		16,758		67.06%		8,031		32.14%		202		0.81%		8,727		34.92%		24,991
	DeSoto		5,524		58.09%		3,913		41.15%		73		0.77%		1,611		16.94%		9,510
	Dixie		4,434		68.83%		1,960		30.43%		48		0.75%		2,474		38.40%		6,442
	Duval		220,190		57.78%		158,610		41.62%		2,261		0.59%		61,580		16.16%		381,061
	Escambia		93,566		65.30%		48,329		33.73%		1,383		0.97%		45,237		31.57%		143,278
	Flagler		19,633		51.02%		18,578		48.28%		269		0.70%		1,055		2.74%		38,480
	Franklin		3,472		58.54%		2,401		40.48%		58		0.98%		1,071		18.06%		5,931
	Gadsden		6,253		29.80%		14,629		69.72%		102		0.49%		-8,376		-39.92%		20,984
	Gilchrist		4,936		70.36%		2,017		28.75%		62		0.88%		2,919		41.61%		7,015
	Glades		2,443		58.33%		1,718		41.02%		27		0.64%		725		17.31%		4,188
	Gulf		4,805		66.03%		2,407		33.08%		65		0.89%		2,398		32.95%		7,277
	Hamilton		2,792		54.97%		2,260		44.50%		27		0.53%		532		10.47%		5,079
	Hardee		5,049		69.65%		2,149		29.65%		51		0.70%		2,900		40.00%		7,249
	Hendry		5,757		58.90%		3,960		40.51%		58		0.59%		1,797		18.39%		9,775
	Hernando		42,635		52.93%		37,187		46.17%		725		0.90%		5,448		6.76%		80,547
	Highlands		25,878		62.36%		15,347		36.98%		271		0.65%		10,531		25.38%		41,496
	Hillsborough		245,576		53.01%		214,132		46.23%		3,514		0.76%		31,444		6.78%		463,222
	Holmes		6,412		77.25%		1,810		21.81%		78		0.94%		4,602		55.44%		8,300
	Indian River		36,938		60.15%		23,956		39.01%		520		0.85%		12,982		21.14%		61,414
	Jackson		12,122		61.20%		7,555		38.14%		130		0.66%		4,567		23.06%		19,807
	Jefferson		3,298		44.10%		4,135		55.30%		45		0.60%		-837		-11.20%		7,478
	Lafayette		2,460		73.98%		845		25.41%		20		0.60%		1,615		48.57%		3,325
	Lake		74,389		60.02%		48,221		38.90%		1,340		1.08%		26,168		21.12%		123,950
	Lee		144,176		59.91%		93,860		39.00%		2,631		1.09%		50,316		20.91%		240,667
	Leon		51,615		37.85%		83,873		61.50%		891		0.65%		-32,258		-23.65%		136,379
	Levy		10,410		62.52%		6,074		36.48%		168		1.01%		4,336		26.04%		16,652
	Liberty		1,927		63.79%		1,070		35.42%		24		0.79%		857		28.37%		3,021
	Madison		4,191		50.47%		4,050		48.77%		63		0.76%		141		1.70%		8,304
	Manatee		81,318		56.62%		61,262		42.66%		1,041		0.72%		20,056		13.96%		143,621
	Marion		81,283		58.19%		57,271		41.00%		1,123		0.80%		24,012		17.19%		139,677
	Martin		41,362		57.09%		30,208		41.69%		883		1.22%		11,154		15.40%		72,453
	Miami-Dade		361,095		46.61%		409,732		52.89%		3,899		0.50%		-48,637		-6.28%		774,726
	Monroe		19,467		49.24%		19,654		49.71%		414		1.05%		-187		-0.47%		39,535
	Nassau		23,783		72.64%		8,573		26.18%		387		1.18%		15,210		46.46%		32,743
	Okaloosa		69,693		77.65%		19,368		21.58%		695		0.77%		50,325		56.07%		89,756
	Okeechobee		6,978		57.24%		5,153		42.27%		59		0.48%		1,825		14.97%		12,190
	Orange		192,539		49.62%		193,354		49.83%		2,151		0.55%		-815		-0.21%		388,044
	Osceola		43,117		52.45%		38,633		47.00%		454		0.55%		4,484		5.45%		82,204
	Palm Beach		212,688		39.05%		328,687		60.35%		3,247		0.60%		-115,999		-21.30%		544,622
	Pasco		103,230		54.07%		84,749		44.39%		2,937		1.54%		18,481		9.68%		190,916
	Pinellas		225,686		49.56%		225,460		49.51%		4,211		0.92%		226		0.05%		455,357
	Polk		123,559		58.61%		86,009		40.80%		1,262		0.60%		37,550		17.81%		210,830
	Putnam		18,311		59.12%		12,412		40.07%		250		0.81%		5,899		19.05%		30,973
	St. Johns		59,196		68.60%		26,399		30.59%		695		0.81%		32,797		38.01%		86,290
	St. Lucie		47,592		47.56%		51,835		51.80%		636		0.64%		-4,243		-4.24%		100,063
	Santa Rosa		52,059		77.35%		14,659		21.78%		589		0.88%		37,400		55.57%		67,307
	Sarasota		104,692		53.51%		88,442		45.20%		2,518		1.29%		16,250		8.31%		195,652
	Seminole		108,172		58.10%		76,971		41.34%		1,052		0.56%		31,201		16.76%		186,195
	Sumter		19,800		62.18%		11,584		36.38%		458		1.44%		8,216		25.80%		31,842
	Suwannee		11,153		70.58%		4,522		28.62%		127		0.80%		6,631		41.96%		15,802
	Taylor		5,467		63.71%		3,049		35.53%		65		0.76%		2,418		28.18%		8,581
	Union		3,396		72.64%		1,251		26.76%		28		0.60%		2,145		45.88%		4,675
	Volusia		111,924		48.89%		115,519		50.46%		1,496		0.65%		-3,595		-1.57%		228,939
	Wakulla		6,777		57.61%		4,896		41.62%		90		0.77%		1,881		15.99%		11,763
	Walton		17,555		73.22%		6,213		25.91%		208		0.87%		11,342		47.31%		23,976
	Washington		7,369		71.09%		2,912		28.09%		85		0.82%		4,457		43.00%		10,366

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Flagler (largest municipality: Palm Coast)
Hernando (largest municipality: Spring Hill)
Osceola (largest municipality: Kissimmee)
Pasco (largest municipality: Wesley Chapel)
Pinellas (largest municipality: St. Petersburg)

County Flips: {{col-begin}}

Democratic Republican ]]

By congressional district

Bush won 18 of 25 congressional districts. Both candidates won a district held by the other party.

Bush	Representative
72%	28%	Jeff Miller
54%	46%	Allen Boyd
35%	65%	Corrine Brown
69%	31%	Ander Crenshaw
58%	41%	Ginny Brown-Waite
61%	39%	Cliff Stearns
57%	43%	John Mica
55%	44%	Ric Keller
57%	43%	Michael Bilirakis
51%	49%	Bill Young
41%	58%	Jim Davis
58%	42%	Adam Putnam
56%	44%	Katherine Harris
62%	38%	Connie Mack IV
57%	43%	Dave Weldon
54%	46%	Mark Foley
17%	83%	Kendrick Meek
54%	46%	Ileana Ros-Lehtinen
34%	66%	Peter Deutsch
36%	64%	Debbie Wasserman Schultz
57%	43%	Lincoln Diaz-Balart
48%	52%	E. Clay Shaw Jr.
24%	76%	Alcee Hastings
55%	45%	Tom Feeney
56%	44%	Mario Diaz-Balart

Electors

Main article: List of 2004 United States presidential electors

Technically the voters of Florida cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Florida is allocated 27 electors because it has 25 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 27 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 27 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from Florida. All were pledged to and voted for George W. Bush and Dick Cheney.

Al Austin
Allan Bense
Sally Bradshaw
Al Cardenas
Jennifer Carroll
Armando Codina
Sharon Day
Maria de la Milera
Jim Dozier
David Griffin
Fran Hancock
Cynthia Handley
William Harrison
Al Hoffman
Bill Jordan
Tom Lee
Randall McElheney
Jeanne McIntosh
Nancy Mihm
Gary Morse
Marilyn Paul
Tom Petway
Sergio Pino
John Thrasher
Janet Westling
Robert Woody
Zach Zachariah

References

(2021). "Voter Turnout".
Leip, David. "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections".
O'Brien, Mark (December 14, 2004). [https://www.newspapers.com/article/pensacola-news-journal-theres-a-limit-t/138724717/ There's a limit to the value of term limits on political offices]. ''Pensacola News Journal''. Retrieved January 18, 2025.
"Archived copy".
[https://web.archive.org/web/20140520041108/http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=490 Quinnipiac]
[https://web.archive.org/web/20140520040528/http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=488 Quinnipiac]
[https://web.archive.org/web/20140520042646/http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=485 Quinnipiac]
[https://web.archive.org/web/20140520055043/http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=409 Quinnipiac]
[https://web.archive.org/web/20140520021020/http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=405 Quinnipiac]
[https://web.archive.org/web/20140520020625/http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=313 Quinnipiac]
[https://web.archive.org/web/20140520020430/http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=312 Quinnipiac]
[http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?fips=12 2004 Presidential Election Polls. Florida Polls] US Election Atlas
"George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President".
"John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democratic Party, President".
"CNN.com Specials".
DavidNYC. (2008-12-15). "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project". Swingstateproject.com.
(20 May 2019). "U. S. Electoral College 2008 Election - Certificates".

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