2004 Indian general election

Background

Speaker Manohar Joshi, who was from the Shiva Sena(NDA), had recommended premature dissolution of the 13th Lok Sabha (in accordance with a provision of the Constitution) to pave the way for early elections apparently in view of the recent good showing of the BJP in the Assembly elections in four states. But though this recommendation was not accepted by Prime Minister Atal Bihari Bajpayee, the Speaker dissolved the Lok Sabha.

Organisation

The election dates for the parliamentary elections were:

• 20 April – 141 constituencies
• 26 April – 137 constituencies
• 5 May – 83 constituencies
• 10 May – 182 constituencies

Counting began simultaneously on 13 May. Over 370 million of the 675 million eligible citizens voted, with election violence claiming 48 lives, less than half the number killed during the 1999 election. The Indian elections were held in phases in order to maintain law and order. A few states considered sensitive areas required deployment of the armed forces. The average enrolment of voters in each constituency was 12 lakhs, although the largest constituency had 31 lakhs.

The Election Commission of India is responsible for deciding the dates and conducting elections according to constitutional provisions. The Election Commission employed more than a million electronic voting machines for these elections.

According to India Today, 115.62 billion rupees were expected to have been spent in campaigning for the elections by all political parties combined. Most of the money was spent on the people involved in the election. The Election Commission limited poll expenses to Rs. 25 lakhs per constituency. Thus, the actual spending is expected to have been approximately ten times the limit. About 6.5 billion rupees are estimated to have been spent on mobilising 1,50,000 vehicles. About a billion rupees are estimated to have been spent on helicopters and aircraft.

Pre-poll alliances

In these elections, compared to all the Lok Sabha elections of the 1990s, the battle was more of a head-to-head contest in the sense that there was no viable third front alternative. Largely the contest was between BJP its allies on one hand and Congress its allies on the other. However, the situation did show large regional differences.

The BJP fought the elections as part of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), although some of its seat-sharing agreements were made with strong regional parties of the NDA such as Telugu Desam Party (TDP) in Andhra Pradesh and All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) in Tamil Nadu.

Ahead of the elections there were attempts to form a Congress-led national level joint opposition front. In the end, an agreement could not be reached, but on regional level alliances between Congress and regional parties were made in several states. This was the first time that Congress contested with that type of alliances in a parliamentary election.

The left parties, most notably the CPM and the CPI, contested on their own in their strongholds West Bengal, Tripura and Kerala, confronting both Congress and NDA forces. In several other states, such as Punjab and Andhra Pradesh, they took part in seat sharings with Congress. In Tamil Nadu they were part of the DMK-led DPA (Democratic Progressive Alliance).

Two parties refused to go along with either Congress or BJP, they were BSP and Samajwadi Party. Both are based in Uttar Pradesh, the largest state of India (in terms of population). Congress made several attempts to form alliances with them, but in vain. Many believed that they would prevent Congress of an electoral victory. The result was a four-cornered contest in UP, which didn't really hurt or benefit BJP or Congress significantly.

Forecast and campaigns

Most analysts believed the NDA would win the elections. This assessment was also supported by opinion polls. The economy had shown steady growth in the last years and the disinvestment of government owned production units (a continuation of India's liberalisation policies ) had been on track. The Foreign Exchange Reserves of India stood at more than US$100 billion (7th largest in the world and a record for India). The service sector had also generated a lot of jobs. The Vajpayee government had launched numerous welfare schemes, thus starting the culture of "Yojana"s in Indian governments. The party was supposed to have been riding on a wave of the feel good factor, typified by its promotional campaign "India Shining".

In the past, BJP has largely been seen as a hardline Hindu right wing party with close ties with the hardline organisations the RSS and Vishva Hindu Parishad. Over the years, the party under Vajpayee has slightly distanced itself from hardline policies in order to accommodate a variety of parties within the NDA, like TMC (a Congress-breakaway party), breakaway factions of the Janata Dal like INLD, RLD, JD(U) and BJD, Dravidianist parties like DMK (which left the alliance in December 2003), PMK (which left the alliance in January 2004) and AIADMK (which joined after DMK left) and parties largely representing non-Hindus like SAD and JKNC (which joined the alliance in 2002), a change that was being questioned after the party's good performance in the 2003 assembly elections of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh & Chhattisgarh, Karnataka. These elections were marked by the campaign's emphasis on economic gains instead of issues involving religious polarisation. Ban on cow-slaughter, implementation of a Uniform Civil Code, construction of Ram-mandir at the site of Ayodhya, abolition of the provisions of secularism in order to make Hinduism the country's state religion etc. characterised BJP's campaign in the 1996 election. From the last few elections, BJP had realised that its voter base had reached a ceiling and had concentrated on pre-poll rather than post-poll alliances. The Vajpayee wave and foreign origin of Sonia Gandhi also constituted part of the NDA's campaign.

Opinion polls

Exit polls

State/UT-wise voter turnout details

Results

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Region-wise results

By state and territory

States

Territories

Analysis

Main article: 2004 Indian general election analysis

Though pre-poll predictions were for an overwhelming majority for the BJP, the exit polls (immediately after the elections and before the counting began) predicted a hung parliament. However, even the exit polls could only indicate the general trend and nowhere close to the final figures. There is also the general perception that as soon as the BJP started realising that events might not proceed entirely in its favour, it changed the focus of its campaign from India Shining to issues of stability. Congress was regarded as old-fashioned by the ruling NDA and many. But Congress declared that it has largely backing of poor, rural, lower-caste and minority voters though all sections of the society had participated in the economic boom of Vajpayee's years. The BJP declared that, PV Narasimha Rao's govt had created a wealthy middle class. But Congress achieved its victory on grounds of coalition politics.

Impact

The rout of the ruling parties in the states of Tamil Nadu and Kerala in the general elections led to calls for the dissolution of the governments of these states.

The stock market (Bombay Stock Exchange) fell in the week prior to the announcement of the results due to fears of the defeat of NDA government and stoppage of its economic reforms. As soon as counting began, however, it became clear that the Congress coalition was headed for a sizeable lead over the NDA and the market surged, only to crash the following day when the left parties, whose support would be required for government formation, announced that it was their intention to do away with the disinvestment ministry. Following this, Manmohan Singh, the Prime Minister (in office 2004–14) and the prime architect of the economic liberalisation of the early 1990s, hurried to reassure investors that the new government would strive to create a business-friendly climate. Later in his Book, Turning Points Former president Abdul Kalam said that he has no objection against sonia's candidancy and he said to ready the documents with Sonia as Prime Minister.

Events

• 13 May - Congress wins a minority of seats in the Lok Sabha (142) and forms UPA which has plurality of seats (219 seats against 188 for the BJP). This event shocks many.
• 13 May - Counting of votes in the parliamentary elections begins.
• 11 May - Congress wins the Assembly elections in Andhra Pradesh by 2/3 majority.
• 10 May - The fourth and final phase of elections comes to an end. Results will come out for 542 of the 543 parliament seats with elections to be held again in Chhapra.
• 5 May - Third phase of polling comes to an end with the ruling coalition government gaining seats according to exit polls but still off the victory target. Reports of booth capturing in Chhapra, capture headlines.
• 26 April - Second phase of elections sees 55-60% polling. This is the final phase for assembly elections. Polling covers 136 parliamentary constituencies in 11 states. The share market starts to crash as the investors suspected that the NDA government might find it hard to come back to power—raising doubts about the continuation of economic reforms initiated by the NDA government.
• 22 April - Tripura, where polling was delayed because of a local holiday, votes for its two MPs. A turnout of close to 60% is reported, despite calls for abstention made by separatists.
• 20 April - The first phase of the vote is held, with average turnouts of between 50% and 55%. Voting is reported as brisk, and the day unfolds relatively smoothly, albeit with some glitches reported with the electronic voting machines. Isolated violent incidents take place in Kashmir, Jammu, Manipur, and Jharkhand.
• 8 April - The NDA's top leaders meet in New Delhi to adopt its manifesto for the elections, Agenda for Development and Good Governance.
• 7 April - Prime Minister Shri Atal Bihari Bajpayee files nomination as the candidate from his seat Lucknow.
• 6 April - The BJP and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) tell the Election Commission that they will continue to raise the issue of the foreign origin of Congress president Sonia Gandhi.
• 4 April - An FIR is lodged against external affairs minister Yashwant Sinha for alleged violation of election code of conduct during a poll meeting in Ranchi. Besides Sinha, FIRs were lodged against three other BJP leaders who participated in the meeting. All were acquitted.

Notes

References

References

1. (13 March 2009). "General Elections 2004: Facts and figures".
2. (13 May 2004). "In Huge Upset, Gandhi's Party Wins Election in India (Published 2004)". The New York Times.
3. (26 February 2004). "The dissolution debate".
4. "President dissolves Lok Sabha".
5. "General Election, 2004 (Vol I, II, III)".
6. "General Election Schedule 2004".
7. "BJP spends Rs 150 cr on 'India Shining' campaign". The Economic Times.
8. (20 May 2019). "2004 exit polls: when surveys got it horribly wrong".
9. (20 May 2019). "Can 2019 exit polls turn out to be wrong like 2004?".
10. (19 May 2019). "Exit polls: How accurate are they? A look back at 2004, 2009, 2014 predictions".
11. "Lok Sabha Results Constituency Map: Lok Sabha Election Result with constituencies details along electoral map".
12. https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/kalam-was-ready-to-make-sonia-pm/article3585909.ece